After the thrilling ending to last week’s Farmers Insurance Open, the PGA tour heads to the Arizona desert for the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

The Stadium Course at TPC Scottsdale is, as ever, the host course for this event and the field is looking as strong as I can remember, with seven of the world’s top-20 golfers making the trip to Phoenix.

Over the last few years, there would seem to be a premium on good, solid drivers of the ball. 2009 and 2010 winners Kenny Perry and Hunter Mahan both ranked very highly in the Total Driving stat at the time of their victories. Furthermore, last year’s winner Mark Wilson is no bomber, but one of the very straightest off the tee, and the very same could be said about his playoff conquest, Jason Dufner.

History doesn’t stack up well this week for players trying to win their first PGA tour title. Over the last 20 years, only J.B. Holmes (in 2006) managed to pick up his maiden title in this event, and I’ll be bearing this in mind with my selections here:

Webb Simpson – I’m not keen on backing favourites as a general rule, but Webb Simpson was very kind to me last season and I can’t afford to ignore him at what looks like a decent price this week. Having finished 65th in his first Phoenix Open outing and missing the cut in 2010, Simpson turned in an excellent performance last year to finish tied for 8th. In a nutshell, that is what he did so well last season – improving on his previous year’s result in most tournaments he played. Simpson played excellently in the season opener at Kapalua, and after a unremarkable tie for 38th at the Sony Open (still an improvement on his previous two appearances there), he’ll be eager to get back out there after two weeks off. Simpson is one of the best drivers of the ball in the game at the moment, and the key is that he’s not scared to win.

5pts win only 16/1 Hollywood, Sportsbet, BetXchange

Jason Dufner – Although Dufner has only teed it up in two events so far this year, he ranks 6th in Total Driving and 9th in Ball Striking so he’s obviously doing something right. His last start was a tie for 12th at the Humana Challenge where he shot a second round 63, so his form seems to have clicked into gear after a missed cut at the Sony Open. Last year, Dufner lost in a playoff here to an in-form Mark Wilson, and he shot no worse than a 68 all week. That performance came off the back of a much more average display in the Humana Challenge, so there’s every reason to suggest he can go one better this week.

2.5pts each way 45/1 Hollywood, BetXchange

Kevin Na – This is the third time that Kevin Na has graced the pages of Golf Punters’ Guide already this season, and I have no intention of deserting him in one of his favourite events. Na is quite clearly a desert golf expert. As well as a host of good finishes at both the Humana Challenge and Reno-Tahoe Open over the past few years, Na bagged his maiden tour victory in the desert at the JT Shriners Open in the tail end of last season. Although his last two starts in this particular event haven’t brought much joy, his 2008 and 2009 starts saw Na bag a brace of top-5 finishes, and I expect a strong showing this week.

2pts each way 40/1 Hollywood, Sportsbet, BetXchange, Voltbet

John Rollins – One of the form players on tour right now is 36 year-old John Rollins. After a solid tie for 10th in his season opener at the Sony Open, Rollins played some of his best golf on the way to a 3rd place finish in the Farmers Insurance Open last week. One of the keys to Rollins’ success last week was his driving, where he ranked 2nd in Driving Accuracy. Rollins is no short-hitter either which explains his current ranking of 5th in Total Driving. Rollins has a whole host of top finishes to his name at TPC Scottsdale, including a runner-up finish in 2007, and it’s interesting to note that his last title came in the desert at the 2009 Reno-Tahoe Open.

2pts each way 50/1 Hollywood, Ladbrokes, BetXchange

Scott Piercy – Yet another desert expert is Vegas resident Scott Piercy. Like Kevin Na, Piercy opened up his PGA tour account last year with a win in the desert, his victory coming at the Reno-Tahoe Open. Piercy has started off 2012 in solid form, including a tie for 13th at the tough Farmers Insurance Open last week where he had the putter working on tricky greens. Although Piercy didn’t tee it up in Scottsdale last year, he finished inside the top-10 in both 2009 & 2010 so he clearly loves his golf here and now has experience of winning on the PGA tour.

1.5pts each way 55/1 Hollywood, BetXchange

Bryce Molder – If we want to go one step further than finding players with desert form, there are a number of players this week who are Scottsdale residents and Bryce Molder is one such player. Molder has started off 2012 in pretty decent form, opening up with a tie for 7th in his Hyundai Tournament of Champions debut and finishing tied for 13th at Torrey Pines last week. Although Molder only scraped the cut here last year and finished tied for 62nd, he was suffering from a bout of flu which had forced him to withdraw from the Farmers Insurance Open the week before. Maybe a fairer assessment of his Scottsdale form is his tie for 8th here in 2010. Local knowledge will certainly help this week, and Molder has current form to match.

1.5pts each way 60/1 Hollywood, Sportsbet, BetXchange

Pat Perez – No crazy priced outsiders this week I’m afraid. For my last selection, I’m going for another Scottsdale resident in the form of Pat Perez. It’s been over three years since Perez’s last win in the PGA tour, which came in the desert at the Bob Hope Classic (now known as the Humana Challenge), but he came very close to adding to that tally at last year’s Reno-Tahoe Open where he finished runner-up to Scott Piercy. Perez has shown signs of form in 2012, finishing tied for 14th at the Humana Challenge and tied for 22nd last week, but I’m particularly intrigued by Perez’s progressive form in the Phoenix Open which reads 48-24-22.

1pt each way 80/1 Ladbrokes, Voltbet

You are most welcome to add your own picks on our discussion forum

Sam Harrop has been a golfing enthusiast most of his life and has developed an in depth knowledge of the players, tournaments and stats on the PGA Tour. He has launched a website www.golfpuntersguide.com and he has kindly made his preview available to Goodforthegame.

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