The jewel of the Cape racing calendar takes place at Kenilworth racecourse on Saturday, where a top class field will contest the 2012 J&B Met over 2000 metres.

For the first time in 5 years the J&B Met will be contested without the presence of the legendary Pocket Power. Retired after last years running when finishing midfield, the 3 time J&B Met winner, affectionately known as 'The Peoples Champion', set the benchmark for others to achieve in this race, and each of this years runners will be looking to follow in his footsteps by taking the victory in this prestigious race. The 2012 field has a real mixed feel about it – a number of older, experienced horses line up against a trio of talented fillies, as well as a pair of exciting 3 year olds looking to use the weight advantage to get one over their more senior rivals. With Pocket Power retired, River Jetez racing overseas and last years winner Past Master having his career cut short through injury, there's will be a new name written into Met history on Saturday afternoon.

The build up to this years Met had been dominated for a couple weeks by concerns over the participation of the reigning horse of the year, the Mike de Kock trained wonder-filly Igugu. A respiratory infection picked up by the Australian bred 4 year old had been a cause for concern for the stable as well as punters who'd been backing her in the ante-post market, however thankfully she's reported to have fully recovered and takes her place, much to the relief of punters and the general racing public. She's been the favourite for this race for many months now and is currently no bigger than 6/4 to win the race, and in doing so would become champion trainer Mike de Kock's first Met victory since 2000 when he won with Badgers Coast. Other noticeable news this week is that the Mike Bass trained Chesalon, who had been supported in the betting, looks an unfortunate absentee, having pulled up showing signs of discomfort in a recent training gallop.

The big races have been kind to us at Goodforthegame.co.za – we tipped Dancewiththedevil at 16/1 for the Summer Cup in late November, and then Gimmethegreenlight at the same price in the Queens Plate a few weeks ago, were two highlights of our Summer racing coverage. I'm hoping that run in the grade ones can continue this weekend, as we take a look at the latest odds and chances of this years J&B Met field.·

THE CONTENDERS (with current best win odds. Field can be viewed here)

Igugu (6/4 with Sportingbet)

It's hard to argue with her short price to beat the boys on Saturday – she's only been seen on the track once since that Durban July win when cruising home at short odds over the Turffontein 1600m. She missed her prep run in the Cape as a result of that slight health scare, however the stable sound confident enough that it won't count against her on Saturday. She received a plum draw of 7, perfect to get out from and get near the front where she likes to be. The distance will be perfect and regular pilot Anthony Delpech knows this filly better than anyone. It's hard to find holes in her form – perhaps the only very slight concern I have is the left hand track – she's only run once this direction when finishing 2^nd behind Ebony Flyer over the Kenilworth 1600m in the 2010 Filles Guineas (I say slight though as she did go on to win her next half-dozen races in emphatic style!). Hard to see Igugu missing the first three and without a doubt is going to be tough to stop her scoring a remarkable July/Met double.

Gimmethegreenlight (8/1 with WSB, Betxchange)

I have a really soft spot for 'Gimme' – he's been kind to me on several occasions and he's a horse I've followed for some time, which was finally rewarded when he got the better of Variety Club in a tough Queens Plate raced into a strong headwind earlier this month. He's been lumped with a massive hike in his merit rating which left trainer Justin Snaith with little choice than to make the Met his main target (he would be poorly in on the weights for the Durban July based on his current rating). Pierre Strydom was at his masterful best when getting the 3 year old home in the Queens Plate, not least while riding with a broken jaw! Striker gets the ride again here and is drawn right next door to Igugu in stall 8. I've some very slight concerns over his stamina for the 2000m, but if the pace is not too hot we should expect this stunning looking colt to be right there at the business end of affairs.

Bravura (10/1 with WSB, Sportingbet, Betxchange)

The top weight Bravura gets the services of reigning champion jockey Anton Marcus as he attempts to make a big improvement on his 7^th place in last years race, and the signs are there that he'll most certainly do that and maybe even a lot more. That 2010 run was his second outing after almost a year out, and he's looked almost back to his best in his last two runs, when landing the Green Point Stakes over the Kenilworth 1600m, before running a strong 4^th behind Gimmethegreenlight in the Queens Plate. He looked caught out from his wide draw by a hot early pace in that race and was caught wide throughout. A poor draw in stall 12 won't help his cause here, however Marcus knows this horse well and will be looking to get him across early on. Twice a course and distance winner, his chances must be respected, but I can't help but feel he might lack a turn of foot on the day against some of his younger rivals might potentially see him just miss out.

Tales of Bravery (10/1 with WSB, Betxchange, Sportingbet)

Lady luck has not been kind to the connections of Tales of Bravery, with the consistent Vaughn Marshall trained 5 year old having again drawn stall 15 like he did in 2011. He ran a gallant fourth last year when being rushed up to get over from his wide draw, not quite the tactic which suits his running style but one that almost did the trick when he faded late. He's been coming from off the pace his last few runs, all over the 1600m, and despite never winning over more than 1800, the extra trip should be within his range. He was running on stoutly in the Queens Plate and we can expect a really honest run from Tales of Bravery – he's as gutsy as they come.

The Apache (14/1 with Sportingbet)

The Apache comes into this race in fine form and KZN-based trainer Gavin van Zyl's will be hoping the consistent 4 year old son of Mogok will become the first KZN-trained winner since Zebra Crossing in 2006. A fast finishing 4^th behind Igugu in the July, he followed up with an immediate win next time out in the Champions Cup over 1800m at Greyville. Since then he's been campaigning up on the highveld, picking up one win and 3 places from his 4 starts, all in top company. He was probably a touch disappointing in his last start when pipped by Smanjemamje, a rank outsider for this race, and although on his best runs he's got a massive shout in the Met, he's had a couple tough outings at Turffontein and might feel the effect of those runs come the final 200m on Saturday.

Beach Beauty (14/1 at Betxchange, WSB, Sportsbet)

The Drier yard are still buzzing after Val de Ra's exhilarating win in the Cape Flying Championship last weekend, and they'll be hoping to ride that wave of success with a big run from Beach Beauty. The 4 year old Dynasty filly is a classy sort, having won from 1000m on her debut right up to Saturday's 2000m trip when taking the Gold Bracelet at Greyville back in July last year. A break followed while she was moved down to the Cape with the rest of the Drier string. She made her Cape debut with a decent effort over 1500m, and has since been runner-up twice over the Kenilworth 1800m. Although a beaten favourite in both those runs, she was pulling hard when being forced to make the pace in the Paddock Stakes last time out, and a return to off-the-pace tactics will suit her more. Beach Beauty is one of a few runners who definitely wants a decent pace being set early on, and jumping from stall 5 connections couldn't have asked for a better draw. Carrying just 55kg she looks nicely weighted here and I give her an excellent chance of being in the money.

Run For It (18/1 at Sportingbet)

One of the trio of Justin Snaith runners in the field, Run For It was a game third in last years J&B Met, however since then he's not yet managed to get into the winners box, a run which actually stretches back 12 races since his last win back in September 2010. I'm finding it hard to assess his chances – he's run with credit when third behind Chesalon in a strong Premier Trophy field over the 1800m, however he then ran a bit of a shocker when fading to be badly beaten in the Peninsula Handicap earlier this month. Forced to go the front in that race clearly was a situation that didn't suit Run For It so could perhaps be ignored, and he should see out every bit of the 2000m trip. Run For It will break that losing streak at some point this season, but I'm struggling to see that happening on Saturday.

Ilsanpietro (20/1 with WSB, Betxchange)

Mike de Kock's second runner Ilsanpietro was a real improver last year and has made his way up to Grade 1 level, culminating in a superb second place finish behind Dancewiththedevil in the Summer Cup at Turffontein. He'd been campaigning over much further in races such as the Gold Bowl and Gold Cup, but as a strong galloping type he's been able to give an excellent account of himself over the 1800m to 2000m trips. He was run out of it late behind Smanjemamje and The Apache last time out where he may have needed the run slightly, and should strip a fitter horse come Saturday. Weichong Mawing takes the ride and I'm expecting to see him send Ilsanpietro on a dash for home not far after they take the final bend. He almost held on after skipping clear with a few hundred metres to go in the Summer Cup, but he might struggle to repeat that on the tougher Kenilworth track and could be vulnerable to those coming from off the pace if it's a fast run race.

From here on were into the big priced runners, 25/1 and upwards, however don't let those odds put you off too much as there's some lively outsiders in the race, especially if you're looking for some place value or maybe taking on a trifecta or quartet. The Met has produced some big priced winners in the days before Pocket Power dominated in recent years, and if the there's a slow pace on there's always the chance of a possible shock on the cards.

Emerald Cove (best priced 25/1 with WSB) looks the 3^rd choice of the Snaith runners. She's been supported a touch in the betting, in from around 33/1 to 20/1 in places, and on her recent run behind Tales Of Bravery might have a chance of an upset here. However she suffers a Grade 1 penalty at the weights and looks held by a good few here. Astro News (40/1 with WSB and Betxchange) is one of the two 3 year olds in the race, and with no Grade win penalty he comes in with a featherweight 52kg on his back. The stable have sounded confident of a big run from him in interviews this week - he tried a trip beyond 1600m for the first occasion last time out when flying from last to finish less than half-a-length behind Polar Bound. He's reported to be in fine fettle at home and although it's an unknown about his stamina for the 2000m trip, it's hard to ignore his low weight and eye-catching last run. Astro News looks real lurker at a big price.

Smanjemamje (40/1 generally available) has consistently surprised up on the highveld and has taken some big scalps, but all of his best runs have been at Turffontein and I don't rate his chances of another upset this weekend. Super Storm (50/1 with WSB, Betxchange) looks like being the only Mike Bass runner following the injury to Chesalon, however despite a poor draw I don't think he's without a chance of running into the money. A closer look at the replay of his last few runs suggests he's been coming to hand, running on nicely on each occasion when having to come from well back in the field. He'll enjoy this 2000m trip and it's worth noting that stable jockey Karl Neisius had taken the ride ahead of Chesalon a couple weeks back.

That leaves us with just 3 more runners - Lion In Winter (66/1 with Betxchange) has ability and was a good fifth in last years J&B Met, but looks held by a few others on his recent efforts. Cask (80/1 with Betxchange) looks a touch outclassed here, despite running an excellent 2^nd behind Chesalon in his penultimate start, and lastly Fabiani (125/1 with Betxchange, Sportingbet), despite still being a game individual, would need to find his very best form from two years ago to feature.·

BETTING STRATEGY

So we've taken a brief look at each of runners, now it's time to nail our betting strategy for the big race. The most obvious question punters will be asking themselves is “am I with or against Igugu?” It's a very tough call to go against such a talented horse, but I find myself feeling that at her current odds she doesn't represent value. Yes she's beaten all the very best and yes she did it while still a 3 year old, but her prep for this race hasn't been ideal and for the first time in a while she might find herself under some significant pressure from her fellow thoroughbreds. Make no mistake she's the one to beat, but at no bigger than 8/5 for the win I don't think there's any value there (punters who backed her weeks or months ago at prices around 9/4 are in a far better position).

So what, if anything, can beat her? My fancy to be the one posing the biggest danger is another filly, the Dennis Drier trained Beach Beauty. As per my earlier thoughts, she's got a lot going for her here – the draw, the weight, the in-form stable, and I'm backing the Dynasty filly to become the second female horse in 3 years to take the Met, or at least run a place to give us an each-way return.

BET: 2 units Beach Beauty win @ 14/1 (available at Betxchange, WSB, Sportsbet), 4 units Beach Beauty place @ 9/4 (top 4, available at Betxchange)

I feel Igugu will be right there at the end, and am going to include here in swingers with Beach Beauty.

BET: 3 units swinger Igugu & Beach Beauty

Finally, I'm looking for an outsider to possibly run into the money and maybe cause a bit an upset – Super Storm is my outsider to be running on at the death and maybe sneak a place. I've already backed him for small stakes on the ante-post at 66/1 win, 11/1 a place, however he's not shortened much since then and there's still a big price to be had on the Bass runner surprising on the day.

1 unit Super Storm place @ 8/1 (available at Betxchange)

So that's 10 units down on the main race, and like most punters I'll be looking to get further involved closer to race-day on both the Met as well as the balance of the cracking Kenilworth card.

All To Come bet

As stated there's some fantastic races on the day, including The Cape Derby and the Majorca Stakes, both Grade 1 events that have drawn excellent fields. If you're looking to spread some interest across the racecard and would like to try and find a bumper payout, then all All to Come bet might be worth considering on some of the fancied runners. My suggested ATC bet for an interest at small stakes is:

Race 3 – Agra win, Race 5 – Jackson win, Race 6 – Ebony Flyer place, Race 8 – Divine Jet win, Race 10 – Born To Be Wild place.

This works out to around 40/1 – add in Igugu to win the Met (if she's your fancy) and you're looking at odds around 90/1. There's no harm done at these prices as you'd only need to keep stakes on the small side.

J&B MET COMPETITION

To add even further to the action that awaits us on Saturday, we're running a J&B Met day tipping competition at Goodforthegame, with R1000 worth of betting vouchers to won (many thanks to the team at WSB for sponsoring the prizes). You'll need to have your racecard at the ready as the competition will be spread across the days racing. It's free to enter so to take part simply sign up to our forum (if you're not already registered) and then follow the instructions that will be posted in our J&B Met competition thread on our forum.

MORE HORSE RACING

We have a weekly horse racing thread on the Goodforthegame forum that includes selections for all of the meetings this week and thru the weekend. Be sure to check out the thread for further write-ups and selections for Met day, where I'll also be looking at the fantastic support races on the day in more detail. You're welcome to share your own thoughts and picks and discuss the racing action with fellow punters.

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