Tennis, Australian Open

Harris + Alcaraz + Martinez Portero @1.97

Rune vs Kwon
Rune @2.20

Shapovalov + Fucsovics + Berrettini @2.04

Kokkinakis + Zverev + Berrettini + Monfils + Khachanov @2.01

Giron vs Nadal 0-3
Zverev vs Altmaier 3-0

Double @1.99

Giron vs Nadal

Even if he wins a set via a tie-breaker, like he did against Cressy, Nadal can still keep this to under 29.5 games.
Obviously, I don't expect him to lose a set.
Let's see...

Bet: Under 29.5 games @1.91

Zverev vs Altmaier

Earlier Nadal dispatched Giron 6-1 6-4 6-2, the bookies having set the lines for Nadal games at Under 18.5 @2.20 or so.
I didn't take that, but now I'm going in for Zverev.

Bet 1: Under 29.5 games @1.83
Bet 2: Zverev total games Under 18.5 @2.16
Bet 3: Altmaier total games Under 10.5 @1.90

Popyrin vs Rinderknech

Rinderknech is coming from a final lost in Sydney to Kokkinakis.
Even if he lost, he was very good on his own serve throughout the week.

Both players have good serves, Popyrin will rely on the fans support to lift his game, so I expect a longer match.

Bet: Over 38.5 games @1.77

Cressy vs Isner

This will be a battle with huge serves, lots of aces, and very few–if any–service breaks.
This match will come down to just a few crucial points in tiebreakers.
Cressy played great towards the end of last season and began this season with a runner-up performance in Melbourne (lost to Nadal).

Bet: Over 44.5 games @1.83

Broady vs Kyrgios

Kyrgios has not played in a long time, but I'm just taking him to cover a small handicap against a player that in normal circumstances he should have no problems beating.
There have been other players who came out of nowhere and put up a good show, how much more should a player of Kyrgios's talent be able to give us.

Bet: Kyrgios -3.5 @1.85

Bencic vs Anisimova

Bencic is a very good tennis player. She won the Olympic Gold last year and she is in great form.
Last week she reached the semifinals in Sydney, losing a tight 3-sets match to Badosa, another player in top form.
In the first round she beat Mladenovic in two sets, losing her serve two times.

Anisimova is a very good player too, and she won the title in Melbourne. In the first round she lost the first set to Hartono, a qualifier, but she showed great confidence and won the following two sets.
She lost her serve 6 times to Hartono, and in Melbourne she lost it 3 times to Begu and 5 times to Sasnovich.
I think we will have more than 6 breaks of serve in this match.

Bet: Total Breaks of Serve in Match - Over 6.5 @1.83, bet365

Otte vs Sonego

Sonego served very well with Sam Querrey and saved all the break points he had.
Otte lost his serve three times to Tseng and his second serve was poor at 36%.

The Italian should be able to continue his dominance in this match-up (3-1 H2H).

Bet: Sonego -3.5 @1.80

Korda + Nadal + Zverev + Berrettini + Monfils

All to win @2.08

Barty 2-0 + Osaka + Hurkacz + Keys + Sakkari + Alcaraz + Nadal

All to win @2.36

Hanfmann vs Nadal

Hanfmann is up against the wall with an in-form 20-time Grand Slam champion on the other side of the net.
Nadal is off to a 4-0 start to this season with a title in Adelaide and a 6-1, 6-4, 6-2 defeat of Marcos Giron on Monday night in Melbourne.
It has already been a great tournament for Hanfmann, who qualified for the main draw and then made surprisingly quick 6-2, 6-3, 6-2 work of Thanasi Kokkinakis. However, the 126th-ranked German has never beaten anyone in the top eight and only once has he upset anyone in the top 20.

Bet 1: Under 29.5 games @1.75
Bet 2: Total Games Nadal - Under 18.5 @2.04
Bet 3: Total Games Hanfmann - Under 10.5 @1.76

Kozlov vs Berrettini

Berrettini was handed a tough assignment in the first round of the Australian Open, and he had to work hard to come away with the win. The talented Brandon Nakashima dominated the first set, had two consecutive setpoints (on return) in the third set, and again had his chances in the fourth, but Berrettini won in 4 sets.

Kozlov has got a wild card entry here.

Bet: Berrettini -6.5 @1.81

Cirstea vs Kucova

Cirstea has just dispatched Kvitova in two quick sets, after an excellent game and without losing her serve.

Bet: Cirstea 2-0 @1.83

Cirstea + Mertens @1.92

Fritz + Tsitsipas + Alliassime + Dimitrov @2.13

De Minaur + Agut + Murray + Medvedev + Sinner @2.20

Kyrgios vs Medvedev

These are two of the best servers on tour.
Kyrgios fired 21 aces in the first round, while Medvedev 10.
When they played in Washington (hard court) they traded 28 aces between them in two sets.
I think we will see more than 30 aces here.

Bet 1: Total Aces Over 30.5 @1.80
Bet 2: Kyrgios Over 14.5 Aces @1.72

Kovinic vs Raducanu

Raducanu has returned to her devastating form in the first round, as she dispatched Sloane Stephens 6-0, 2-6, 6-1, in an hour and 45 minutes.
Kovinic, ranked 98, played for three hours and nine minutes and defeated world no. 210 and qualifier Jang Su-Jeong, 6-3, 2-6, 6-4.

She is 3-16 against top 20 players, 0-6 in majors.

Bet: Under 19.5 games @1.80

Halep vs Haddad Maia

Halep defeated world no. 102 Magdalena Frech, 6-4, 6-3.
Halep, the 14th seed, started the season with a Melbourne WTA 250 title.
Haddad Maia fought hard to beat world no. 176 and qualifier Katie Volynets, 3-6, 6-2, 6-3.

Bet 1: Under 18.5 games @1.79
Bet 2: Raducanu 2-0 + Halep 2-0 @1.92

Bet 3: Raducanu Under 12.5 games + Halep Under 12.5 games @2.36

Johnson vs Sinner

Sinner beat Johnson in both their h2h matches so far. The second time was in Washington last year in 2 quick sets.
In the first round Sinner beat Sousa in 3 sets.
Sinner is yet to be tested in 2022. He won all his three singles matches against Max Purcell, Arthur Rinderknech, and Roman Safiullin in straight sets at the ATP Cup.

Johnson fought through 5 sets to beat Thompson in the first round. He struggled physically in the last two sets, but the out-of-form Aussie failed to take advantage, 7-6 6-7 4-6 6-3 6-3.

Bet 1: Sinner Under 19.5 @1.68
Bet 2: Sinner 3-0 + Halep 2-0 @2.01

Azarenka vs Svitolina
Kudermetova vs Sakkari

Svitolina played poorly in the two Adelaide tournaments, losing to Gasanova (7-5 4-6 3-6) in the first round of the first tournament, then again in the first round in the second tournament to Madison Keys (2-6 4-6).
She continued her poor form at the Australian Open, against two opponents ranked outside the top 100, whom she should have defeated comfortably. Instead, she needed a tiebreak to solve Fiona Ferro in straight sets before being taken to a decider by Harmony Tan, who ended the second round with a retirement.

Azarenka is looking more motivated and confident, as she dispatched Panna Udvardy (6-3 6-1) and Jil Belen Teichmann (6-1 6-2).

Sakkari is looking motivated and has a big crowd support.

Azarenka + Sakkari @2.00

Kecmanovic vs Sonego

Kecmanovic said he is motivated to avenge his compatriot Novak Djokovic with a good run at the Australian Open, and he's looked like a man on a mission so far. He dropped only seven games against lucky-loser Salvatore Caruso in the first round and backed it up with a straight-set win over the reigning ATP Stockholm champion Tommy Paul in the second.

Sonego dispatched Sam Querrey in three sets in the first round and then beat Otte 3-1.
These two players met four times before and Sonego leads 3-1 h2h.
All their matches were best of 3 format, and at least one set in every match was a long one (7-5 or 7-6).
Given their form here, I expect a long match between them.

Bet: Total Games - Over 38.5 @1.90

Opelka vs Shapovalov

Both players have booming serves and tiebreakers can be expected to rule in this match.
Shapovalov played three of them against Soonwoo Kwon during a five-set victory on Wednesday and Opelka’s game style is obviously such that service breaks are few and far between. It is no surprise that their only previous meeting went to a third-set tiebreaker, won by Shapovalov 6-3, 3-6, 7-6(6) at 2017 Queen’s Club qualifying.

Bet 1: Over 42.5 Games @1.83
Bet 2: Over 1.5 Tiebreakers @1.83

Alcaraz vs Berrettini

Alcaraz wrapped up his 2021 season with a win at the Next Gen ATP Finals over Sebastian Korda. He came into the 2022 season sporting a set of Nadal-like biceps and so far a pair of easy straight-set wins to earn his spot opposite Berrettini. He appears to have worked on his serve during the offseason, as it seems to be more effective than it has been previously.

Berrettini had a monster year in 2021. The Italian won Queen’s Club and made the final at Wimbledon. His first two matches this week were 4-set affairs, defeating Americans Brandon Nakashima and Stefan Kozlov.

Bet: Over 39.5 games @1.83

Korda vs Carreno Busta

Both players come into this third-round match off tough 5-setters. Carreno Busta spent 4 hours and 10 minutes on court against Tallon Griekspoor, while Korda spent 4 hours and 47 minutes getting past Corentin Moutet.
Korda is one of the more promising American players to come along in a while. He won his first title last year and he sits at world No. 43 in the world at the moment. Like Alcaraz, he closed out his season with a run to the final match at the NextGen ATP Finals.

Carreno Busta is a solid 6-1 for the 2022 season so far, but the Spaniard’s only match against a top player was also his only loss. He went down in the final of the ATP Cup to Denis Shapovalov.

This looks like a long match.

Bet: Over 38.5 games @1.90

Halep vs Kovinic

Kovinic defeated Emma Raducanu mainly because Raducanu played with raw blisters on her right hand.
Halep is in great form. She won the title in Melbourne and at the Open she's been playing very well so far, dominating her opponents.
I think Halep will take care of business with ease.

Bet 1: Halep -6.5 @1.80
Bet 2: Total Games Under 17.5 @1.90

Sinner 3-0 + De Minaur 3-0 @2.69

Van de Zandschulp vs Medvedev

Medvedev beat Nick Kyrgios 7-6(1), 6-4, 4-6, 6-2 on Thursday night, which followed a 6-1, 6-4, 7-6(3) victory over Henri Laaksonen. With Novak Djokovic out of the competition, Medvedev has clearly established himself as the favorite to capture a second consecutive Grand Slam title.
So far this fortnight Van de Zandschulp has defeated Jan-Lennard Struff and Richard Gasquet (via retirement), dropping just one set to Gasquet in the process.
Medvedev is in ruthless form right now. He was pissed off after the match against Kyrgios, as the crowds adopted Ronaldo's "Siuuu" shout and it sounds like booing on the court.
They should give Ronaldo what belongs to Ronaldo and tennis players what belongs to tennis players.
Medvedev was dismissive about the crowd and even after he asked them to show respect to Jim Courier they kept on going with their tribal behaviour.
The thing is Medvedev feeds of such atmosphere, as we saw in Washington recently.
Certainly a spicy encounter with Kyrgios–and more specifically with the crowd–should only inspire the second seed moving forward. I don’t think he will let Van de Zandschulp take a set.

Bet 1: Medvedev Under 18.5 games @2.20
Bet 2: Total games Under 29.5 @1.83

Roberto Bautista-Agut vs Taylor Fritz

This match has the potential to be one of the standouts of a highly competitive week one. Both men are playing well and both have plenty of motivation and a decent shot at quarterfinals.

Bet: Total Games Over 38.5 @1.83

Daniel Evans vs Felix Auger-Aliassime

Evans has had a good start to 2022. He won his three ATP Cup matches, then reached the semifinals in Sydney and here at the Open he dispatched Goffin in 3 sets, then benefitted from Rinderknech's withdrawal, so he will be well rested.

Auger-Aliassime spent four hours and 20 minutes on court in his second round match against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. It was a physical, highly competitive match, but he has displayed the necessary fitness for a full two weeks of best-of-five matches.

Bet 1: Evans +1.5 @1.80
Bet 2: Total Games Over 38.5 @1.74

Rublev vs Cilic

Rublev and Cilic will be squaring off for the sixth time in their careers on Saturday. Rublev leads the head-to-head series 4-1 in Rublev’s favour, with Rublev winning four in a row.

Despite a positive Covid-19 test that forced him out of the ATP Cup, Rublev is starting 2022 strong. So far at Melbourne Park he has erased Gianluca Mager (6-3, 6-2, 6-2) and Ricardas Berankis (6-4, 6-2, 6-0). Cilic has already won six matches this year. He reached the semifinals at each of the Adelaide tournaments and so far in Melbourne has ousted qualifiers Emilio Gomez and Norbert Gombos. However, he had a tough time closing out Gombos on Thursday; Cilic won the first two sets easily before finally surviving 8-6 in a fourth-set tiebreaker.

Rublev is a steep step up in competition.

Bet: Rublev -4.5 @1.80

Mannarino vs Nadal

When Khachanov took a set off Nadal in the previous round, Nadal made him pay by taking the next one in a drastic manner: 6-1.
His shots were pin point accurate and deadly. He is in his best form in a long time.
H2H is 2-0 to Nadal, 4-0 sets, both on hard courts.

Bet 1: Under 29.5 games @1.83
Bet 2: Nadal under 18.5 games @2.20

Careno-Busta vs Berrettini

Careno-Busta was 4-1 at the ATP Cup just before the Open.
He has been playing quite well so far this year. Counting his third-round win over Sebastian Korda he is 7-1 in 2022.

Careno-Busta is patient, fit, a talented hard-courter, and he’s in good form.

Berrettini has won all his 3 previous matches in 4 or 5 sets. In the previous round he held off an inspired charge by the Spanish teenager Carlos Alcaraz to win in a fifth-set tiebreaker. The match was so close that the men won exactly the same number of points (159).
I think this is going to be another long one.

Bet: Over 38.5 Games @1.83

Cilic vs Auger-Aliassime

Cilic has won all three of their previous encounters between these two players.
So far at Australian Open Cilic defeated Emilio Gomez, Norbert Gombos, and Andrey Rublev, and has been cruising for the most part.
Auger-Aliassime survived scares in each of his first two matches. He needed five sets against Emil Ruusuvuori and then held off Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 7-6(4), 6-7(4), 7-6(5), 7-6(4) after four hours and 19 minutes.
Both players are in great form and if both of them will maintain the same level as until now, I think we will have a nice long match.

Bet: Over 39.5 games @1.83

Cressy vs Medvedev

Cressy has had the most number of aces so far in this tournament.
Medvedev fires a big number of aces in his matches as well, so I think we'll see a good number here.

Bet 1: Match Total Aces - Over 29.5 @1.91
Bet 2: Cressy Total Aces - Over 12.5 @1.72
Bet 3: Medvedev Total Aces - Over 15.5 @1.80

De Minaur vs Sinner

De Minaur, no. 42, came into Melbourne with a 2-1 match record in 2022 thanks to a pair of matches he won for Team Australia at the ATP Cup.

Sinner, no. 10, won all three of his matches at the ATP Cup.

He leads the h2h 2-0.
With the crowd pushing him all the way, Alex de Minaur will get some help to keep this one competitive.

Bet: Over 36.5 games @1.85

Fritz vs Tsitsipas

Tsitsipas was forced to withdraw from the Nitto ATP Finals with an elbow injury and then had surgery on it during the offseason. It seems to be okay so far this week, but he was slightly off in his third-round match against Benoit Paire. Notably, Tsitsipas lost track of the score and didn’t realize that the break of serve he secured with Paire serving at 4-5 in the fourth actually won him the match.
He dropped a set in two of his three matches this fortnight against the Australian Open debutant Sebastian Baez and Benoit Paire.

Fritz is going to have his chances at the upset here. He has already produced the best slam performance of his career in Melbourne. A win would put him in the quarterfinals. Fritz scored a tight five-set win over Roberto Bautista Agut in the third round, and this could be another close one. Fritz is 0-2 against Tsitsipas, but the Greek hasn’t been at his best of late.

Bet: Over 38.5 games @1.80

Shapovalov vs Nadal

Shapovalov has a very good serve, but he doesn't fire too many aces.
At this tournament he had 13 with Djere, 29 with Soonwoo Kwon (in 5 long sets), 10 with Opelka and 3 with Zverev.
When they met in Abu Dhabi recently in an exhibition match, he fired 6 aces.
Nadal is playing better and better and he has a great return.
The commentators agree too that Nadal hasn't looked so good in a long time and he said too that he is feeling good.
He lost one set to Khachanov and then he took the next one 6-1.
With Mannarino he struggled to take the first set in a long tie-break, but after that he took the following two sets 6-2.
I think he wins this match.

Bet 1: Player Number of Aces - Shapovalov Under 13.5 @1.91
Bet 2: Nadal -3.5 @1.80

Monfils vs Berrettini

Monfils kicked off his 2022 campaign with a title in Adelaide and he is going full steam ahead at Melbourne Park.

Berrettini has been tested the whole way this fortnight, including in a five-setter against Carlos Alcaraz during third-round action. Another long one should be in the cards.

Bet: Over 39.5 games @1.82

Monfils vs Berrettini

Berrettini is firing heaps of aces.

Bet: Player Total Aces - Berrettini Over 13.5 @1.83

Auger Aliassime vs Medvedev
Tsitsipas vs Sinner

Auger Aliassime and Medvedev met a couple weeks ago at the ATP Cup in Sydney in the semifinals of the team event. Medvedev handed Auger-Aliassime a proper shellacking, complete with a bagel (6-4, 6-0).

With a week and a half of matches under his belt, Auger-Aliassime should put in a better performance than he did in Sydney — but Medvedev has also had basically the same amount of time on court to shake off the offseason rust.

The Canadian has had to work hard for his spot in the quarters this fortnight. Only his third round against Dan Evans was straightforward. Otherwise he was challenged by each of Emil Ruusuvuori, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Marin Cilic.

Medvedev has been more dominant. Nick Kyrgios nabbed a set in the second round, but there was never any real danger of the Russian losing that match. The only player to have pushed Medvedev’s buttons was the young American Maxime Cressy in the fourth round.

This has proven to be a poor matchup for Auger-Aliassime. He has only managed to take one set in three matches with Medvedev so far. On this court, where Medvedev plays so well, it’s hard to imagine the underdog turning the tide.

Sinner is playing much better than Tsitsipas right now.
He booked his spot in the Aussie Open quarterfinals by beating Joao Sousa, Steve Johnson, Taro Daniel, and Alex de Minaur–dropping just one set to Daniel in the process.

Tsitsipas has done extremely well to reach the quarterfinals despite being nowhere near his best. Tsitsipas cruised past Mikael Ymer in his opening match and then battled through tough ones against Sebastian Baez (four sets), Benoit Paire (four), and Taylor Fritz (five).
He arguably had no business beating Fritz on Monday night, but he was superior to the American from a mental standpoint throughout the fourth and fifth sets.

Fritz let Tsitsipas off the hook. Sinner probably won’t be as generous. Despite being in the very early stages of his career, this is already the 20-year-old’s fourth trip to the second week of a slam–including a quarterfinal run at the 2020 French Open. Tsitsipas’ game can’t hang with Sinner’s at the moment, and the Greek may not have any advantage in the department of intangibles, either.

It won’t be entirely routine, but Sinner has the edge.

Bet: Medvedev + Sinner @1.90

Auger Aliassime vs Medvedev

Auger Aliassime and Medvedev met a couple weeks ago at the ATP Cup in Sydney in the semifinals of the team event. Medvedev handed Auger-Aliassime a proper shellacking, complete with a bagel (6-4, 6-0).

With a week and a half of matches under his belt, Auger-Aliassime should put in a better performance than he did in Sydney — but Medvedev has also had basically the same amount of time on court to shake off the offseason rust.

The Canadian has had to work hard for his spot in the quarters this fortnight. Only his third round against Dan Evans was straightforward. Otherwise he was challenged by each of Emil Ruusuvuori, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Marin Cilic.

Medvedev has been more dominant. Nick Kyrgios nabbed a set in the second round, but there was never any real danger of the Russian losing that match. The only player to have pushed Medvedev’s buttons was the young American Maxime Cressy in the fourth round.

Both Medvedev and Auger-Aliassime have been firing tons of aces so far. The Canadian gas blasted many more however, and I think he will have to use his powerful serve to try to get free points off Medvedev.
Also, given the importance of this match, I think the Canadian player will give an improved account of himself.
He actually improved his game since having brought Tony Nadal on board his staff.

Bet 1: Over 34.5 games @1.83
Bet 2: Auger-Aliassime Over 11.5 Aces @1.90
Bet 3: Total Aces Over 25.5 @1.83

Kokkinakis/Kyrgios vs Granollers/Zeballos

The Australian pair are on fire. They already eliminated top seeds Mektic/Pavic and in the previous round they beat seed no. 6 Puetz/Venus.
They have probably the best first serve out of all the doubles pairs present in the semifinals.
They rally and stir up the crowds, they make a show on the court, they want to win the trophy.

Bet: Kokkinakis/Kyrgios @1.80

Barty vs Keys

Madison Keys is a big hitting player and I think that Barty will face some problems for the first time here.
Two years ago, Barty marched into the semifinal of this tournament as the heavy favorite but was stunned by eventual champion Sofia Kenin, 7-6, 7-5.

Barty has become accustomed to being the favourite of every match here and got used to the home crowd's support as well.
So far she has cruised through all the rounds, dispatching her opponents with ease.

Madison Keys seems to be the most difficult opponent that she has faced so far.
She is in top form, she won the title in Adelaide and is on a 10-wins streak.
In the previous two rounds she beat two top 6 players, Badosa and Krejcikova.
When she played against opponents of similar game style, Camila Giorgi and Amanda Anisimova, attacking players who took it to Barty early, Barty had problems, and Anisimova is the only player who broke Barty's serve.
I think we will have a tight match here and Keys can take it to Barty.

Bet 1: Madison Keys over 1.5 Breaks of Serve @1.83
Bet 2: Over 20,5 games @1.84
Bet 3: Madison Keys Over 8.5 games @1.83