Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

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5 years 11 months ago #51 by Bookie Basher
Replied by Bookie Basher on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

The Vann wrote: Have two buddies for easter who watch rugby - not punters. Explained handicaps and here is what the non-punters settled on
Chiefs -5.5 @ 16/10 at Sportsbet
Decided to splash two units on it - they can pay for lunch if its crap. A no lose situation for The Vann :lol:

Buddies or bunnies? :)
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5 years 11 months ago #52 by R3V3R3NT_
Replied by R3V3R3NT_ on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
Chiefs V Highlanders.
I've gone Chiefs SU and Chiefs -4.5. Sam Cane is playing his 100th game for the Waikato NZ super teams lift another level when key players are hit milestones also fading Aaron Mauger all season long.

Hurricanes Vs Rebels
Hurricanes -10.5 and Hurricanes -20.5.............
Most improved super squad vs the top dog of super rugby right now. I think we will see a pattern with the Rebels common with squads that have improved dramatically in a short period of time. They will beat down on the rubbish teams and compete but ultimately fail against the top teams. The quality of the teams the Rebels have played so far has been pretty poor, so this will be a big step up for them. Hurricanes defense is good enough to limit the Rebels and every Rebels game this season has ended up a 20+ point margin so just a dabble on the -20.5.
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5 years 11 months ago #53 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
Chiefs win + over 51.5pts
Canes -11.5 + under 56.5pts

Double @ 14/1

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5 years 11 months ago #54 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
Chiefs by 1 - 12 at 18/10
Chiefs and Landers to score same amount of tries at 7/2
Over 50.5 points in 1st game onto over 55.5 points in 2nd game at 26/10

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5 years 11 months ago #55 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
Was going to go overs in the 1st game but a bit worried about the low scoring history between these sides in Chiefs home games - no more than 42 points in the last 6

Have settled on Chiefs 1-12 at just shy of 2/1 at Sportingbet

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5 years 11 months ago #56 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
As posted earlier this week, Chiefs +1
Also a small play on Chiefs by 11-20 @ 5

Am pretty strong on the Canes -10
As Rev points out the Canes defence is excellent (best in the comp) which will limit the Rebels.
Can see a comfortable victory.

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5 years 11 months ago #57 by coil
Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
On under 52.5 in first game .

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5 years 11 months ago #58 by bamiam
Replied by bamiam on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

southpaw wrote: Chiefs win + over 51.5pts
Canes -11.5 + under 56.5pts

Double @ 14/1


That's a bet. I might have gone opposite on points.

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5 years 11 months ago #59 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

bamiam wrote:

southpaw wrote: Chiefs win + over 51.5pts
Canes -11.5 + under 56.5pts

Double @ 14/1


That's a bet. I might have gone opposite on points.


funny enough i put the pts reverse in basket after to play as well, was a bit lower around 12/1. But i can't watch game so more for an interest.

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5 years 11 months ago #60 by bamiam
Replied by bamiam on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

southpaw wrote:

bamiam wrote:

southpaw wrote: Chiefs win + over 51.5pts
Canes -11.5 + under 56.5pts

Double @ 14/1


That's a bet. I might have gone opposite on points.


funny enough i put the pts reverse in basket after to play as well, was a bit lower around 12/1. But i can't watch game so more for an interest.


Still amazing value spotted there, wish I saw it earlier. Seems like the game's opening up a bit, so overs might come in.

Hurricanes defense has been pretty solid, so although I reckon they'll win 13+, they might well keep Rebels scoring down in the second game.

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5 years 11 months ago #61 by sebokeng
Replied by sebokeng on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
No disrespect to Strauss but maybe he would be more valuable to the Bulls if he was part of the backroom staff. He is a liability on the field in my opinion.

Sorry to say but Stormers will Chow Bulls tomorrow!

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5 years 11 months ago #62 by coil
Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

sebokeng wrote: No disrespect to Strauss but maybe he would be more valuable to the Bulls if he was part of the backroom staff. He is a liability on the field in my opinion.

Sorry to say but Stormers will Chow Bulls tomorrow!


Ha ha no disrespect indeed !! Agree 100 % Sebo, the guy is a clown , hasn't had any form for a few seasons now and I'm surprised he can still retain his place , much have some Tjom's in high places obviously :whistle:
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5 years 11 months ago #63 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

mackem wrote: Had a quick scoot around and seems the Chiefs are now generally 17/20 to win and Betway now 9/10.

Chiefs v Highlanders preview

Lets go 6 units, Chiefs win, 9/10 Betway, credited to GFTG forum early calls.


Nice early call Mackem (B)
That Landers team is overrated by the book

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5 years 11 months ago #64 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

bradie82 wrote: Rebels vs Canes
Over 1.5 penalties scores @2.65
Not much chance this will be a winner but odd is too high not to take


Adding first penalty scored before 38"30

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5 years 11 months ago #65 by shaft
Replied by shaft on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
Rebel v Canes. I agree the Canes d will do a good enough job. 58.5 is too high for me. I've gone under @ 17/20

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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5 years 11 months ago #66 by coil
Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
going for canes minus 10.5 and main bet rebels under 22.5 pts

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5 years 11 months ago #67 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

hanrick wrote: Chiefs by 1 - 12 at 18/10
Chiefs and Landers to score same amount of tries at 7/2
Over 50.5 points in 1st game onto over 55.5 points in 2nd game at 26/10


Nice price tries (B)
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5 years 11 months ago #68 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

Bookie Basher wrote:

The Vann wrote: Have two buddies for easter who watch rugby - not punters. Explained handicaps and here is what the non-punters settled on
Chiefs -5.5 @ 16/10 at Sportsbet
Decided to splash two units on it - they can pay for lunch if its crap. A no lose situation for The Vann :lol:

Buddies or bunnies? :)

Bunnies by 1/2 a point - but I do get lunch :lol:

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5 years 11 months ago #69 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
Hurricanes over 14.5 1st half points at 5/6 WSB - expect a fast start

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5 years 11 months ago #70 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
High Gareth Evans try minutes @ 8

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5 years 11 months ago #71 by Thrasher6
Replied by Thrasher6 on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
I'm waiting for Rebels to score early and then bag the reduced handicap on the Canes...

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5 years 11 months ago #72 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

bradie82 wrote:

bradie82 wrote: Rebels vs Canes
Over 1.5 penalties scores @2.65
Not much chance this will be a winner but odd is too high not to take


Adding first penalty scored before 38"30


Nothing like an early collection well played on that 38.5 call

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5 years 11 months ago #73 by coil
Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

coil wrote: going for canes minus 10.5 and main bet rebels under 22.5 pts


grrr , not even a runner , most disappointing from the Cane's , and the decision on the try just opens up all sorts of questions grrr

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5 years 11 months ago #74 by coil
Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

Brent Graham wrote: Hurricanes over 14.5 1st half points at 5/6 WSB - expect a fast start


Booooom , the Graham poops in

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5 years 11 months ago #75 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
Cheers Coil, small interest Canes -13.5 at the break, reckon they put the hammer down

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5 years 11 months ago #76 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

southpaw wrote: High Gareth Evans try minutes @ 8


You got to be kidding me - great call Paw!

Hope you get another

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5 years 11 months ago #77 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

southpaw wrote: High Gareth Evans try minutes @ 8


Very nice. Well played.

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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5 years 11 months ago #78 by shaft
Replied by shaft on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

southpaw wrote: High Gareth Evans try minutes @ 8


Done south. Forgive my ignorance, but I'm guessing one weighs up the spread option against anytime try fixed odds?

I see if a player doesn't score, the total is 0. So very little downside to the spread option?

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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5 years 11 months ago #79 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

southpaw wrote: High Gareth Evans try minutes @ 8


Well done. Didn't see this till too late. Am hoping that, if I had, I would have elected not to follow! :)

Better to just miss a winning bet rather than to have decided not to follow, and I do like a tryscorer bet. At least Barrett popped over on 40 minutes to land the 5/2 and a 27 point profit on the buy of his try minutes. Thanks again to Northener for flagging him.

Oh to have bought Lam's try minutes though! I see they made up at 195 (and his "super mega minutes" made up at 369, where time of 2nd or 3rd try is doubled/trebled).

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5 years 11 months ago #80 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

shaft wrote: Done south. Forgive my ignorance, but I'm guessing one weighs up the spread option against anytime try fixed odds?

I see if a player doesn't score, the total is 0. So very little downside to the spread option?


I could go on at great length and with tedious enthusiasm on this subject but the short answer is "yes", you need to consider which price is best value or whether to split your stake across the two. In my view, buying at 8 is just shy of the equivalent of getting 5/1 anytime. If I fancied the player and he was 5/1 or 9/2 I'd probably split my stake. If he was only 3/1 I'd just buy his try minutes but if he was 7/1 I'd stick to fixed odds.

It's impossible to know in advance which way will be best (will he score late or early, just once or 2 or more) so you've just got to go for which one you think is best and hope that luck evens itself out in the long run. I had the "joy" of buying a player's try minutes at 15 last weekend only for him to score a single try in the 1st minute for a 14 point loss. That said, his anytime price was so short there was no way I would have taken it. (And that's the brief answer!) :P
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5 years 11 months ago #81 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
We've got the Anglo-Welsh Cup final flying a bit below the radar today. Bath take on Exeter and I've bought Bath hotshots at 18 with Spreadex (Vuna, Hurrell, Banahan, Homer).

Looks a bit cheap to me, enough of an upside from a single try to tempt me in. 4 points higher with SPIN who have Wilson in for Hurrell. Clearly Banahan and Vuna carry the main threat and I wouldn't put anyone off the best available fixed odds prices for them, 11/5 with 365 and 11/4 with Skybet respectively.

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5 years 11 months ago #82 by coil
Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
Bath vs Exeter at Gloucester as the neutral ground. Last week 18-20 in The Premiership at Bath. Slightly different teams, have gone low at 39.5 total points , lot's of rain about and hoping it's trench warfare.

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5 years 11 months ago #83 by Northerner
Replied by Northerner on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
Likewise Coil. I’ve got:

Under 40 points @ evens 2 units
0-1 tries @ 11/1 0.4 units
0 tries @ 66/1 0.2 units
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5 years 11 months ago #84 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

Brent Graham wrote:

southpaw wrote: High Gareth Evans try minutes @ 8


You got to be kidding me - great call Paw!

Hope you get another


cheers lads. I have to say i've kept the powder dry for so long on spreads that this came as a big welcome return. Starting to see how these player minutes bets can be a bit lower risk than a team or match shirts punt in some games.

Although i will state i am no expert at working out whether an anytime or spread play is better, and i've followed Harry's posts with interest on how he assesses the 2 different markets, it was a new way of thinking and very good insight yet again on the GFTG forum.

Well done all on a good Friday's rugga.
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5 years 11 months ago #85 by slaterj
Replied by slaterj on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
Afternoon all (UK Time)

Delighted to see the Chiefs come good this morning and also good to see so many people on them on here too. Not so great news with my NAP on the Rebels +11 but managed to catch the 2nd half as i was out and about and the Canes were just different gravy unfortunately. Couldn't say that the Rebels were appalling just more of a case of being outclassed by a better team and that's the way it goes sometimes.

What are all your thoughts on the Anglo-Welsh Cup Final which kicks off in 15 minutes time or so? I haven't really got any strong feelings or opinions so thought i'd put it out there and ask what the general feeling is on here?

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5 years 11 months ago #86 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
Cracking calls today boys (B)
Good Friday for the punters (B) (B) (B)

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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5 years 11 months ago #87 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
am travelling most of Saturday so will miss all the action, but for an interest have gone with this acca:

Sharks+12.5
Tahs win
Stormers win
Lions +7.5

@ 11/1
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5 years 11 months ago #88 by coil
Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

coil wrote: Bath vs Exeter at Gloucester as the neutral ground. Last week 18-20 in The Premiership at Bath. Slightly different teams, have gone low at 39.5 total points , lot's of rain about and hoping it's trench warfare.


Awful, much earlier kick off than I thought , of course being a Holiday ....rain has not done much and 33 points in first half , bet gone grrrr
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5 years 11 months ago #89 by The Missing Link
Replied by The Missing Link on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
Sharks are poor but the Blues aren't special. Blues haven't beaten the Sharks by this margin in over 10 years, have to go with the plus.
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5 years 11 months ago #90 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

coil wrote: Bath vs Exeter at Gloucester as the neutral ground. Last week 18-20 in The Premiership at Bath. Slightly different teams, have gone low at 39.5 total points , lot's of rain about and hoping it's trench warfare.


Out of jail again the Coiler - well played son

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5 years 11 months ago #91 by coil
Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

Brent Graham wrote:

coil wrote: Bath vs Exeter at Gloucester as the neutral ground. Last week 18-20 in The Premiership at Bath. Slightly different teams, have gone low at 39.5 total points , lot's of rain about and hoping it's trench warfare.


Out of jail again the Coiler - well played son


Would you believe it ! 3-3 in the second half , for once I'm not stiffer than a honeymoon kok (B)

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5 years 11 months ago #92 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
Coilio you beauty! Nice call (B)

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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5 years 11 months ago #93 by coil
Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
Tonight in Llanelli rain is forecast again , however quotes of 39.5 seem a little low for me . I am beginning to fancy La Rochelle a little bit but sadly missing a few heavyweights in the pack. Small bet on the plus 8.5.

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5 years 11 months ago #94 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
Looking at Twitter pics rain a possibility as overcast but doesn't look too bad at the moment and I am going over 39.5 points 8/10 Sunbet

Both these teams play an attacking game and Halfpenny one of the best when kicking for posts

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5 years 11 months ago #95 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
Think the home team can pull clear and have taken 8/10 -6.5 at Sunbet - they haven't really been fluent but lead by 2 and I think they can improve

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5 years 11 months ago #96 by coil
Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

The Missing Link wrote: Sharks are poor but the Blues aren't special. Blues haven't beaten the Sharks by this margin in over 10 years, have to go with the plus.


Agree , the Blue's can't have my money when such strong favourites , but then the Sharks are just so horrible this season. It should be a no bet but I'll also be rowing my canoe in with the plus 12.5.

In canberra I'll be going against the grain slightly. this Brumbies side is an awful one compared to years gone by but I'm also not too impressed by the waratahs overall. I'm thinking this could be an aussie stinker and will be going under total points at 47.5 and a nibble on brumbies 1-12.

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5 years 11 months ago #97 by sebokeng
Replied by sebokeng on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

coil wrote:

Brent Graham wrote:

coil wrote: Bath vs Exeter at Gloucester as the neutral ground. Last week 18-20 in The Premiership at Bath. Slightly different teams, have gone low at 39.5 total points , lot's of rain about and hoping it's trench warfare.


Out of jail again the Coiler - well played son


Would you believe it ! 3-3 in the second half , for once I'm not stiffer than a honeymoon kok (B)

Stiffer than a honeymoon Kok...Geez :ohmy: :ohmy:

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5 years 11 months ago #98 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
Newcastle v Brive: One bet (or two on the same player) stand out for me in this game.

Tait to score a try at 2/1 with Spreadex and buy his try minutes at 19 with the same firm.

My first view was that the spreads were telling me I'd want odds of at least 9/4 to back him anytime yet the biggest price with the fixed odds firms was evens and most were odds on. That suggested that, if any value was to be had, it was going to be with the spread firms. A buy at 19 falls short of the 2/1 anytime for me and I'd normally just back the latter but, in this case, both prices are tempting enough for the split stakes approach, in case he scores late or more than once.

I think even money is too short but he simply shouldn't be as generously priced as he has been by SX today.

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5 years 11 months ago #99 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby

Brent Graham wrote: Looking at Twitter pics rain a possibility as overcast but doesn't look too bad at the moment and I am going over 39.5 points 8/10 Sunbet

Both these teams play an attacking game and Halfpenny one of the best when kicking for posts


The GFTG board has impressed my non-punting buddies. I think they may be under the impression that this could be an easy way to make money. Nice call - just (B)

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5 years 11 months ago #100 by sebokeng
Replied by sebokeng on topic Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
I'm thinking Waratahs over 23.5 match points at 8/10 looks pretty tempting. Even if they lose, Tahs r sure to keep the scoreboard ticking.

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