Super Rugby Week 7 and Other Rugby
- Bookie Basher
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Buddies or bunnies?The Vann wrote: Have two buddies for easter who watch rugby - not punters. Explained handicaps and here is what the non-punters settled on
Chiefs -5.5 @ 16/10 at Sportsbet
Decided to splash two units on it - they can pay for lunch if its crap. A no lose situation for The Vann
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- R3V3R3NT_
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I've gone Chiefs SU and Chiefs -4.5. Sam Cane is playing his 100th game for the Waikato NZ super teams lift another level when key players are hit milestones also fading Aaron Mauger all season long.
Hurricanes Vs Rebels
Hurricanes -10.5 and Hurricanes -20.5.............
Most improved super squad vs the top dog of super rugby right now. I think we will see a pattern with the Rebels common with squads that have improved dramatically in a short period of time. They will beat down on the rubbish teams and compete but ultimately fail against the top teams. The quality of the teams the Rebels have played so far has been pretty poor, so this will be a big step up for them. Hurricanes defense is good enough to limit the Rebels and every Rebels game this season has ended up a 20+ point margin so just a dabble on the -20.5.
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- southpaw
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Canes -11.5 + under 56.5pts
Double @ 14/1
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- hanrick
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Chiefs and Landers to score same amount of tries at 7/2
Over 50.5 points in 1st game onto over 55.5 points in 2nd game at 26/10
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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- Brent Graham
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Have settled on Chiefs 1-12 at just shy of 2/1 at Sportingbet
By the way if you are not subscribed to our newsletter - WHY NOT?
Here it is mailchi.mp/d8344957590b/tired-lions-there-for-the-taking
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- Brad Breath
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Also a small play on Chiefs by 11-20 @ 5
Am pretty strong on the Canes -10
As Rev points out the Canes defence is excellent (best in the comp) which will limit the Rebels.
Can see a comfortable victory.
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- coil
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- bamiam
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southpaw wrote: Chiefs win + over 51.5pts
Canes -11.5 + under 56.5pts
Double @ 14/1
That's a bet. I might have gone opposite on points.
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- southpaw
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bamiam wrote:
southpaw wrote: Chiefs win + over 51.5pts
Canes -11.5 + under 56.5pts
Double @ 14/1
That's a bet. I might have gone opposite on points.
funny enough i put the pts reverse in basket after to play as well, was a bit lower around 12/1. But i can't watch game so more for an interest.
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- bamiam
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southpaw wrote:
bamiam wrote:
southpaw wrote: Chiefs win + over 51.5pts
Canes -11.5 + under 56.5pts
Double @ 14/1
That's a bet. I might have gone opposite on points.
funny enough i put the pts reverse in basket after to play as well, was a bit lower around 12/1. But i can't watch game so more for an interest.
Still amazing value spotted there, wish I saw it earlier. Seems like the game's opening up a bit, so overs might come in.
Hurricanes defense has been pretty solid, so although I reckon they'll win 13+, they might well keep Rebels scoring down in the second game.
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- sebokeng
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Sorry to say but Stormers will Chow Bulls tomorrow!
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- coil
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sebokeng wrote: No disrespect to Strauss but maybe he would be more valuable to the Bulls if he was part of the backroom staff. He is a liability on the field in my opinion.
Sorry to say but Stormers will Chow Bulls tomorrow!
Ha ha no disrespect indeed !! Agree 100 % Sebo, the guy is a clown , hasn't had any form for a few seasons now and I'm surprised he can still retain his place , much have some Tjom's in high places obviously
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- bradie82
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mackem wrote: Had a quick scoot around and seems the Chiefs are now generally 17/20 to win and Betway now 9/10.
Chiefs v Highlanders preview
Lets go 6 units, Chiefs win, 9/10 Betway, credited to GFTG forum early calls.
Nice early call Mackem (B)
That Landers team is overrated by the book
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- bradie82
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bradie82 wrote: Rebels vs Canes
Over 1.5 penalties scores @2.65
Not much chance this will be a winner but odd is too high not to take
Adding first penalty scored before 38"30
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- shaft
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"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- coil
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- southpaw
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hanrick wrote: Chiefs by 1 - 12 at 18/10
Chiefs and Landers to score same amount of tries at 7/2
Over 50.5 points in 1st game onto over 55.5 points in 2nd game at 26/10
Nice price tries (B)
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- The Vann
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Bunnies by 1/2 a point - but I do get lunchBookie Basher wrote:
Buddies or bunnies?The Vann wrote: Have two buddies for easter who watch rugby - not punters. Explained handicaps and here is what the non-punters settled on
Chiefs -5.5 @ 16/10 at Sportsbet
Decided to splash two units on it - they can pay for lunch if its crap. A no lose situation for The Vann
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- Brent Graham
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- southpaw
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- Thrasher6
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- Brent Graham
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bradie82 wrote:
bradie82 wrote: Rebels vs Canes
Over 1.5 penalties scores @2.65
Not much chance this will be a winner but odd is too high not to take
Adding first penalty scored before 38"30
Nothing like an early collection well played on that 38.5 call
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- coil
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coil wrote: going for canes minus 10.5 and main bet rebels under 22.5 pts
grrr , not even a runner , most disappointing from the Cane's , and the decision on the try just opens up all sorts of questions grrr
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- coil
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Brent Graham wrote: Hurricanes over 14.5 1st half points at 5/6 WSB - expect a fast start
Booooom , the Graham poops in
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- Brent Graham
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- Brent Graham
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southpaw wrote: High Gareth Evans try minutes @ 8
You got to be kidding me - great call Paw!
Hope you get another
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- hanrick
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southpaw wrote: High Gareth Evans try minutes @ 8
Very nice. Well played.
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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- shaft
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southpaw wrote: High Gareth Evans try minutes @ 8
Done south. Forgive my ignorance, but I'm guessing one weighs up the spread option against anytime try fixed odds?
I see if a player doesn't score, the total is 0. So very little downside to the spread option?
"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- harry_rag
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southpaw wrote: High Gareth Evans try minutes @ 8
Well done. Didn't see this till too late. Am hoping that, if I had, I would have elected not to follow!
Better to just miss a winning bet rather than to have decided not to follow, and I do like a tryscorer bet. At least Barrett popped over on 40 minutes to land the 5/2 and a 27 point profit on the buy of his try minutes. Thanks again to Northener for flagging him.
Oh to have bought Lam's try minutes though! I see they made up at 195 (and his "super mega minutes" made up at 369, where time of 2nd or 3rd try is doubled/trebled).
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- harry_rag
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shaft wrote: Done south. Forgive my ignorance, but I'm guessing one weighs up the spread option against anytime try fixed odds?
I see if a player doesn't score, the total is 0. So very little downside to the spread option?
I could go on at great length and with tedious enthusiasm on this subject but the short answer is "yes", you need to consider which price is best value or whether to split your stake across the two. In my view, buying at 8 is just shy of the equivalent of getting 5/1 anytime. If I fancied the player and he was 5/1 or 9/2 I'd probably split my stake. If he was only 3/1 I'd just buy his try minutes but if he was 7/1 I'd stick to fixed odds.
It's impossible to know in advance which way will be best (will he score late or early, just once or 2 or more) so you've just got to go for which one you think is best and hope that luck evens itself out in the long run. I had the "joy" of buying a player's try minutes at 15 last weekend only for him to score a single try in the 1st minute for a 14 point loss. That said, his anytime price was so short there was no way I would have taken it. (And that's the brief answer!)
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- harry_rag
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Looks a bit cheap to me, enough of an upside from a single try to tempt me in. 4 points higher with SPIN who have Wilson in for Hurrell. Clearly Banahan and Vuna carry the main threat and I wouldn't put anyone off the best available fixed odds prices for them, 11/5 with 365 and 11/4 with Skybet respectively.
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- coil
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- Northerner
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Under 40 points @ evens 2 units
0-1 tries @ 11/1 0.4 units
0 tries @ 66/1 0.2 units
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- southpaw
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Brent Graham wrote:
southpaw wrote: High Gareth Evans try minutes @ 8
You got to be kidding me - great call Paw!
Hope you get another
cheers lads. I have to say i've kept the powder dry for so long on spreads that this came as a big welcome return. Starting to see how these player minutes bets can be a bit lower risk than a team or match shirts punt in some games.
Although i will state i am no expert at working out whether an anytime or spread play is better, and i've followed Harry's posts with interest on how he assesses the 2 different markets, it was a new way of thinking and very good insight yet again on the GFTG forum.
Well done all on a good Friday's rugga.
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- slaterj
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Delighted to see the Chiefs come good this morning and also good to see so many people on them on here too. Not so great news with my NAP on the Rebels +11 but managed to catch the 2nd half as i was out and about and the Canes were just different gravy unfortunately. Couldn't say that the Rebels were appalling just more of a case of being outclassed by a better team and that's the way it goes sometimes.
What are all your thoughts on the Anglo-Welsh Cup Final which kicks off in 15 minutes time or so? I haven't really got any strong feelings or opinions so thought i'd put it out there and ask what the general feeling is on here?
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- RuggaBugga
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Good Friday for the punters (B) (B) (B)
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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- southpaw
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Sharks+12.5
Tahs win
Stormers win
Lions +7.5
@ 11/1
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- coil
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coil wrote: Bath vs Exeter at Gloucester as the neutral ground. Last week 18-20 in The Premiership at Bath. Slightly different teams, have gone low at 39.5 total points , lot's of rain about and hoping it's trench warfare.
Awful, much earlier kick off than I thought , of course being a Holiday ....rain has not done much and 33 points in first half , bet gone grrrr
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- The Missing Link
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- Brent Graham
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coil wrote: Bath vs Exeter at Gloucester as the neutral ground. Last week 18-20 in The Premiership at Bath. Slightly different teams, have gone low at 39.5 total points , lot's of rain about and hoping it's trench warfare.
Out of jail again the Coiler - well played son
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- coil
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Brent Graham wrote:
coil wrote: Bath vs Exeter at Gloucester as the neutral ground. Last week 18-20 in The Premiership at Bath. Slightly different teams, have gone low at 39.5 total points , lot's of rain about and hoping it's trench warfare.
Out of jail again the Coiler - well played son
Would you believe it ! 3-3 in the second half , for once I'm not stiffer than a honeymoon kok (B)
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- RuggaBugga
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Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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- coil
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- Brent Graham
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Both these teams play an attacking game and Halfpenny one of the best when kicking for posts
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- Brent Graham
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- coil
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The Missing Link wrote: Sharks are poor but the Blues aren't special. Blues haven't beaten the Sharks by this margin in over 10 years, have to go with the plus.
Agree , the Blue's can't have my money when such strong favourites , but then the Sharks are just so horrible this season. It should be a no bet but I'll also be rowing my canoe in with the plus 12.5.
In canberra I'll be going against the grain slightly. this Brumbies side is an awful one compared to years gone by but I'm also not too impressed by the waratahs overall. I'm thinking this could be an aussie stinker and will be going under total points at 47.5 and a nibble on brumbies 1-12.
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- sebokeng
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Stiffer than a honeymoon Kok...Geezcoil wrote:
Brent Graham wrote:
coil wrote: Bath vs Exeter at Gloucester as the neutral ground. Last week 18-20 in The Premiership at Bath. Slightly different teams, have gone low at 39.5 total points , lot's of rain about and hoping it's trench warfare.
Out of jail again the Coiler - well played son
Would you believe it ! 3-3 in the second half , for once I'm not stiffer than a honeymoon kok (B)
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- harry_rag
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Tait to score a try at 2/1 with Spreadex and buy his try minutes at 19 with the same firm.
My first view was that the spreads were telling me I'd want odds of at least 9/4 to back him anytime yet the biggest price with the fixed odds firms was evens and most were odds on. That suggested that, if any value was to be had, it was going to be with the spread firms. A buy at 19 falls short of the 2/1 anytime for me and I'd normally just back the latter but, in this case, both prices are tempting enough for the split stakes approach, in case he scores late or more than once.
I think even money is too short but he simply shouldn't be as generously priced as he has been by SX today.
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- The Vann
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Brent Graham wrote: Looking at Twitter pics rain a possibility as overcast but doesn't look too bad at the moment and I am going over 39.5 points 8/10 Sunbet
Both these teams play an attacking game and Halfpenny one of the best when kicking for posts
The GFTG board has impressed my non-punting buddies. I think they may be under the impression that this could be an easy way to make money. Nice call - just (B)
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- sebokeng
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