Cycling: The Giro 2019 - bring it on baby
- Brent Graham
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A quality field and a very interesting route with 3 ITT's, plenty long stages (not always that exciting but saps strength which makes for plenty entertainment later) and some serious climbs
One of the posters on Cycling News always does a brilliant route analyses so bookmark this thread on their forum for starters
forum.cyclingnews.com/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=34542
Some early betting from Sunbet
Roglic 12/10
Tom D 13/5
S Yates 14/5
Nibali 6/1
Lopez 9/1
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- kt6747
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I see Micheal Woods isn't starting the Giro, a bit disappointed.
I have gone with the Landa @ 20/1 & 9/2 to podium.
I have always rated him and think this is his chance this year. With 3 ITT's will suit him as he is more than decent in that and has shown previously with Sky he can keep up with the best. His prep hasn't been the best but hoping he rides into this tour.
Also I have taken him over Lopez @ 31/20 for now.
Look forward to the guru's previews but those are my early thoughts.
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- kt6747
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King of Mountains Match up
Lopez over Doumilon @ 8/11
With the time trials think Lopez will have to try take wins up mountains.
Also taken some Team Jumbo Visa for the team leaders @ 40/1
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- The Vann
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Right - I feel better now
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- kt6747
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- The Vann
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Maglia Rosa
I believe this to be a straight shoot-out between Roglic and Yates. Simon is the twin that can time trial (Won the ITT in Paris-Nice) and I don't think Tommy D gets more then 30-40 sec off Yates in the 3 time trials because of the climbs. All stages have 10-6-4 sec bonuses (Except ITT's) and Yates will get that back from Tommy D in 2-3 stages.
Initial Thoughts
Lopez has finished 3rd in his last two Grand Tours and may be value for podium if one of the top three go through a bad patch. Ineos (Sky) lost Bernal last week and were unable to persuade Thomas to ride. They are going with Sivakov and Geoghegen Hart. I don't rate Sivakov's chances but Geoghegen Hart was last man standing dragging Froome through the Vuelta last year and I quite fancy his top 10 odds running around 2/1.
Mountains Classification
The way the course is set up this competition only starts in stage 12 so will only pick in play.
Points Classification
The course is badly designed for the sprinters. The second last flat stage is stage 11 and they only have one more shot over the last 10 stages in the mountains. This means that, except for 1 and 2 in the jersey standings most of them will bugger off home. Fancied that 35/10 place for Ewan but I think any place bets are a waste of money. Points are based on stage rankings max 50/25/15 to 20/15/10 riders and a good sprinter should rack up enough to win the jersey.
Initial Thoughts
I have a match bet in mind but I find the odds very much in my favour and need to check a few things in case my ancient grey cells are feeding me crap.
Young Rider Classification
Scrolled through the odds a few evenings ago when Bernal was withdrawn and saw Geoghegen Hart at 16//1 - bombed it as I saw Sosa listed as the favorite and he will not be the supported rider. Checked sites the next day and discovered Lopez is still a young rider. Frightened the crap out of the book though as I saw the odds had dropped to 10/1.
Initial Thoughts
Any top 3 over 14/10 and any 17/20 match bet - excluding Lopez - on Geoghegen Hart I will take.
Team Classification
Can't get hurt with the odds KT took on Jumbo Visma. I find the odds on this comp don't move much in the first few stages and I would like to see how Ineos approach the Giro. With no real jersey prospects they may look at this competition as a possibility.
Initial Thoughts
Astana look like a shoe-in so I will wait to see how the breaks form over the first few stages, follow the twitter accounts and try and see if any teams are considering this comp.
Will post main bets tomorrow.
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- kt6747
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Thanks look forward to your picks.
I know mine a way outside picks, but just going with guys who i have liked.
Thanks.
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- The Vann
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Top 10 Finish
Geoghegen Hart @ 18/10
Matchbet Double
Lopez over Majka into
Oomen over O Connor @ 2/1
Points Jersey Matchbet
Modolo over Nizzolo @ 18/10
Will be splashing a few beers on some second choice outrights and will post later.
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- The Vann
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Giro Stage 1
Win
Yates @ 6/1
(Can blame the convicts if this fails)
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- The Vann
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Young Rider Win without Lopez
Geoghegen Hart @ 3/1
Top 3 Overall
Lopez @ 9/2
To Win a Stage - Yes
Formolo @ 11/4
Conti @ 7/2
Points Jersey Winner
Ewan @ 14/1
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- Couch Critic
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KOM:
Landa @ 10/1
Not an ideal course for the sprinters and we could se plenty pack up and leave before the end. I can't see beyond the top name on the board and will stick with Viviani to be the speediest of them all.
Points Classification Winner:
E Viviani @ 2/1
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- kt6747
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I have gone with the following for Stage 1:
Landa / Pozzovivo @ evens
Landa / Nibali @ 17/10
Nibali / Yates @ 28/10 - Just based on if weather that bad late, maybe the Shark will have the beating of him.
And then small beer money on the following 2 for wins and places:
De Gendt @ 400/1 & 80/1
Nieve @ 600/1 & 150/1
Enjoy the first day. Hope no big losses due to weather.
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- The Vann
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Nibali/Yates @ 33/10 at BetX
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- Brent Graham
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- kt6747
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Very disappointing ride by Landa, have written off all my tour bets with him now, no chance for tour matchbet, to lose a minute to Lopez a joke. Carpraz will take over leadership of team I reckon.
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- Brent Graham
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I was very impressed with Lopez today and he has a serious team behind him
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- Brent Graham
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Decided to track my progress in the Giro
+6 units after Roglic win (my unit size for cycling much smaller than rugby) and 1 unit on Gav
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- mackem
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I'll also hope for a sprint, hard to separate the top 3 in the betting but if it is wet then it could end in chaos so wanting a bigger priced rider. Toyed with the idea of going for Demare but settled on Caleb Ewan at 8/1. . .
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- The Vann
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Joining Mackem on Ewan today @ 9/1
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- The Vann
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Campenaerts @ 100/1
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Ackerman @ 5/1
Gaviria @ 8/1
And Ewen 28/1
Damare 33/1
Am I missing something here??
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- The Vann
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Viviani @ 2/1
Ewan @ 28/1
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- Brent Graham
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The break must have a good chance and my 1st nibble is 50/1 any other rider at Sportingbet - they have quoted 32 riders and all of the likely candidates but the 50/1 looks too tempting on a wet, long stage.
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- Brent Graham
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Added 0.5 units Formolo 125/1 and Majka 300/1 at Sunbet
And a 28/10 double at WSB
Nizzolo/Ackermann - Nizzolo consistent and a better climber
Gaviria/Viviani - prefer Gav on this finish
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- mackem
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Thomas de Gendt also riding for me at 33/1 in case he fancy's joining the break which might just stick
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Reckon he is the toughest sprinter in the pack and think he will win if it comes down to a reduced battle between the fast guys. I dont think the end is actually as steep as some might think so dont think someone like Ulissi is as big a player (que him to take the win)
I like that 50/1 from BG but have also gone for:
Nizzolo @ 41
Simone Consonni Top 3 @ 55/1 (hoping they decide to let him have a go)
TdG @ 44/1 (in case he goes for the break)
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- The Vann
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Fancied Ewan but odds too short. Going with
e/w
Vuillermoz @ 40/1
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- The Vann
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You cannot backload a Grand Tour and then have 200km plus stages in the beginning with no climbs. You get no break volunteers and the riders cruise through the day with a result that when you get to the last 20km every team has at least two fresh guys who think they can win. Just a perfect recipe for a friggen disaster.
Oh and stiffs on that Tommy D bet Brent - also took out my Oomen match bet.
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- Brent Graham
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Brent Graham wrote: no interest yesterday but today looks really tough to call
The break must have a good chance and my 1st nibble is 50/1 any other rider at Sportingbet - they have quoted 32 riders and all of the likely candidates but the 50/1 looks too tempting on a wet, long stage.
Recorded stage and when the Movistar rider attacked commentators said it was Rojas who I knew was not quoted - I was shouting him home only for them to say it was Carapaz - I raced to the screen shot of the 32 riders quoted - guess who was number 31 at 100/1?
Vann I never got any long terms down in the end thankfully
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- The Vann
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Brent Graham wrote:
Vann I never got any long terms down in the end thankfully
And you made your Man City bet - YOU LUCKY BASKET
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- kt6747
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Jungels/Landa @ 12/10
On simple basis and may be wrong. Jungels if I remember is the 2nd last lead out guy for Viviani. So he will be up near the front come finish. Know it's guess work but that's my logic.
Enjoy the short stage today.
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- The Vann
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Moschetti over Ewan @ 16/10
and have thrown a beer at the above double @ 47/10
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- Brent Graham
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Long day for me and the cyclists tomorrow so getting bets on early
Valentin 20/1
Gallopin 28/1
Brambilla 33/1
Dunbar 100/1
Break will surely arrive
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- mackem
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Israel Cycling have been giving it a go in sprints and have to be represented so I circled Ruben Plaza although I just found out he is 39 which would go some way to explaining the 80/1. .
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- The Vann
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Masnada @ 25/1
Knox @ 66/1
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The Vann wrote: Joining on the break and the Bakelants pick. Adding two upfront and will try and get one from the break in play if its a big one
Masnada @ 25/1
Knox @ 66/1
Whoooohoooo!! Nice one Vann!
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- Brent Graham
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- mackem
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Stage 7, not quite sure what to expect here, have stuck with Gallopin 40/1, giving Battaglin another go at 18/1 and from GC looking for Jungels, slightly bigger stake at (33/1)
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- mackem
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I did notice Katusha and Lotto S having a word with Roglic yesterday about the chase, think Katusha had Battaglin in mind but chase never materialized so perhaps today. I don't know what happened to Gallopin yesterday, would have been useful to see how that break got established. Either of those 2 could go from a break or on the last climb if break gets caught.
My thinking with Jungels is that if it comes back together GC riders might contest finish and he looked better value than Roglic or Yates and Ullisi in that scenario. Lots of guesswork but an interesting stage for sure.
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- The Vann
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Not sure the break stays today as UAE will be keen to keep jersey as long as possible and they are running into a headwind most of the day. A combo pick
Win only
Yates @ 16/1
Vuillermoz @ 50/1
e/w
Gavazzi @ 50/1
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- mackem
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goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/time-...stage-7-preview.html
Enrico Battaglin @ 19.00
Tony Gallopin @ 47.00
Tao Geoghegan Hart @ 58.00
Above prices all at BetOlimp
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- Brent Graham
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Todays stage may not be as predictable as he betting suggests = a combined 1.5 units each way on
Haller 250/1 66/1
Canola 50/1 12/1 at Sunbet
1 unit down so far, not into this race yes mainly due to the route to date
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- The Vann
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Stage too long today before a mountain ITT. Weather expected to be crap and the run in is poor and dangerous. Just two roughies for me
Rojas @ 89/1
Biermanns @ 93/1
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- kt6747
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2 Outsiders for me,
Gallopin @ 100/1
Polanc @ 300/1
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- The Vann
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Roglic is a lock but 2/9 not worth it. Reckon Campenaerts gets to the last 2km with a minute over Yates and Nibali. Question is can they take a minute off him over the last 2.2km and 6 minutes. Probably but still worth a shot at the odds
1-3
Campenaerts @ 4/1
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- kt6747
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I am just asking, you don't think the climbing from 22km out will affect Campenearts?
Also do you not think the fall Roglic took won't have taken something out of him, its the first time he hasn't had the team protecting him? |For me it was the first time he stands a chance of been beaten?
Sorry for the questions
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- Brent Graham
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I reckon Camp battles today, the climb aside he also did alot of work for Ewan yesterday from what I could see
Really need betting without Roglic here
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