Super Rugby Week 17 plus other rugby
- Brent Graham
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Only 2 weeks of the regular season left and here are my handicap projections with Dave from Australia projections to the right and GGGaming opening lines in brackets - all based on the home team
Highlanders -8.5 v Bulls -9.5 (-10.5)
Reds +3.5 v Blues -1.5 (11/10)
Crusaders -16.5 v Rebels -16.5 (-14.5)
Waratahs -1.5 v Brumbies +6.5 (13/20)
Lions -0.5 v Hurricanes +2.5 (8/10)
Stormers -22.5 v Sunwolves -22.5 (-19.5)
Jaguares -5.5 v Sharks -7.5 (-7.5)
Video to follow
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- southpaw
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Highlanders -8 @ 10/11
It's a simple must win, must get bonus pt situation for Highlanders. Results on weekend gave them a chance to haul in teams around them and after a bye week with several key players back from injury against a Bulls side playing last game of a very long tour, i can see the home side winning by a couple tries.
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- southpaw
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davopnz wrote: Bulls flying Pollard back, huge.
sounds like desperation. He was in Europe last week for a medical with Montpelier. So goes from Aus, to SA, to France, back to SA, and now down to NZ, and will get one training session in before Friday. Not sure this really helps Bulls but good luck to them.
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- BookieDave
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They MUST rest their Wallabies this week or next week. For some STUPID reason they are resting NEXT week...How in this day and age with analytics and what not, that they could make this decision is beyond me.
What SHOULD have been done and why...
If they rest their players THIS week, I reckon their chances of winning the game drop to about 35%....Then if they play full strength against the Highlanders then they are probably 30% chance to win in Dunedin...
Now, they are doing the opposite... So, their winning % is now around 55% this week and next week v the Higlanders with ALL their Wallabies out would be around 10%..maybe even less!
Hopefully you are still with me...
Rest week 1 = Total winning % is 65%
Rest week 2 = Total winning % is 65%...
NOW! here is the kicker... They CANT pass the Brumbies on the ladder so its only a "4/5 Point Game"....If they beat the Highlanders however, then they are in DIRECT competition with them for that final spot and therefore if they do beat them it means the Highlanders CANT get a win that week, making it and "8 Point Game"...
As you can tell I am bewildered as to how this decision has come about, so thanks for letting me vent!
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- Kirky
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BookieDave wrote: I should be shocked...but my god how dumb are the waratahs!
They MUST rest their Wallabies this week or next week. For some STUPID reason they are resting NEXT week...How in this day and age with analytics and what not, that they could make this decision is beyond me.
What SHOULD have been done and why...
If they rest their players THIS week, I reckon their chances of winning the game drop to about 35%....Then if they play full strength against the Highlanders then they are probably 30% chance to win in Dunedin...
Now, they are doing the opposite... So, their winning % is now around 55% this week and next week v the Higlanders with ALL their Wallabies out would be around 10%..maybe even less!
Hopefully you are still with me...
Rest week 1 = Total winning % is 65%
Rest week 2 = Total winning % is 65%...
What about if they just don't rest their wannabies, and they just play a full strength side both weeks ?
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- BookieDave
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Brent Graham wrote: This weeks Best Bet Brumbies -13.5 arrived Click here to get our free weekly e-mail but things went pear shaped for me when the Crusaders blew a 20 point lead and then the Sharks and the Stormers all fell a score short of delivering overs plays.
Only 2 weeks of the regular season left and here are my handicap projections with Dave from Australia projections to the right and GGGaming opening lines in brackets - all based on the home team
Highlanders -8.5 v Bulls -9.5 (-10.5)
Reds +3.5 v Blues -1.5 (11/10)
Crusaders -16.5 v Rebels -16.5 (-14.5)
Waratahs -1.5 v Brumbies +6.5 (13/20)
Lions -0.5 v Hurricanes +2.5 (8/10)
Stormers -22.5 v Sunwolves -22.5 (-19.5)
Jaguares -5.5 v Sharks -7.5 (-7.5)
Video to follow
**My Updated Lines After Teams**
Highlanders -9.5 - No Bets for me
Reds -2.0 - Rieko and PT out for Blues, Tate big loss for reds, but I think the Blues get man handled at set piece. Decent go on the Reds +3.5 for me
Crusaders -19.0 - No idea here.
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- Brent Graham
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- threepeat
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TOP TRY SCORER-2019 TOP REGULAR SEASON TRY SCORER
Ngani Laumape (Hurr)
4.00
Jack Maddocks (Rebels)
4.50
Folau Fainga'a (Bru)
5.00
Rieko Ioane (Blues)
6.50
Sevu Reece (Cru)
8.00
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- hanrick
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threepeat wrote: With Rieko rested v Reds, taking Folau Fainga'a to take out top try scorer in regular season based on game plan for last two games. Paying $5 Confidence $$$$ Laumape out for last SA game? Rebels playing Saders in 7 degrees = Maddocks out.
TOP TRY SCORER-2019 TOP REGULAR SEASON TRY SCORER
Ngani Laumape (Hurr)
4.00
Jack Maddocks (Rebels)
4.50
Folau Fainga'a (Bru)
5.00
Rieko Ioane (Blues)
6.50
Sevu Reece (Cru)
8.00
Laumape is in the starting lineup the Canes put up on their twitter.
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hanrick wrote:
threepeat wrote: With Rieko rested v Reds, taking Folau Fainga'a to take out top try scorer in regular season based on game plan for last two games. Paying $5 Confidence $$$$ Laumape out for last SA game? Rebels playing Saders in 7 degrees = Maddocks out.
Laumape is in the starting lineup the Canes put up on their twitter.
Yep he's starting this week but Plumtree said he'll be rested v Blues next week
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- mackem
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- Brent Graham
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See you at 2030 for GGGamingGoneMad and 21h00 for The Handicap
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- BookieDave
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BookieDave wrote:
Brent Graham wrote: This weeks Best Bet Brumbies -13.5 arrived Click here to get our free weekly e-mail but things went pear shaped for me when the Crusaders blew a 20 point lead and then the Sharks and the Stormers all fell a score short of delivering overs plays.
Only 2 weeks of the regular season left and here are my handicap projections with Dave from Australia projections to the right and GGGaming opening lines in brackets - all based on the home team
Highlanders -8.5 v Bulls -9.5 (-10.5)
Reds +3.5 v Blues -1.5 (11/10)
Crusaders -16.5 v Rebels -16.5 (-14.5)
Waratahs -1.5 v Brumbies +6.5 (13/20)
Lions -0.5 v Hurricanes +2.5 (8/10)
Stormers -22.5 v Sunwolves -22.5 (-19.5)
Jaguares -5.5 v Sharks -7.5 (-7.5)
Video to follow
**My Updated Lines After Teams**
Highlanders -9.5 - No Bets for me
Reds -2.0 - Rieko and PT out for Blues, Tate big loss for reds, but I think the Blues get man handled at set piece. Decent go on the Reds +3.5 for me
Crusaders -19.0 - No idea here.
**Updated After Teams**
Tahs -0.5 - No bet here, cant believe they not resting here.
Lions +0.5 - Key outs for the Canes, maybe back them 2nd half handicap.
Stormers -19.5 - These to team lineups stink! was hoping to back the Stormers, but staying well away now.
Waiting on Jags team
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- BookieDave
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Kirky wrote:
BookieDave wrote: I should be shocked...but my god how dumb are the waratahs!
They MUST rest their Wallabies this week or next week. For some STUPID reason they are resting NEXT week...How in this day and age with analytics and what not, that they could make this decision is beyond me.
What SHOULD have been done and why...
If they rest their players THIS week, I reckon their chances of winning the game drop to about 35%....Then if they play full strength against the Highlanders then they are probably 30% chance to win in Dunedin...
Now, they are doing the opposite... So, their winning % is now around 55% this week and next week v the Higlanders with ALL their Wallabies out would be around 10%..maybe even less!
Hopefully you are still with me...
Rest week 1 = Total winning % is 65%
Rest week 2 = Total winning % is 65%...
What about if they just don't rest their wannabies, and they just play a full strength side both weeks ?
Yeah, my take is solely based on the deal they made to rest Wallabies...
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- BookieDave
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BookieDave wrote:
BookieDave wrote:
Brent Graham wrote: This weeks Best Bet Brumbies -13.5 arrived Click here to get our free weekly e-mail but things went pear shaped for me when the Crusaders blew a 20 point lead and then the Sharks and the Stormers all fell a score short of delivering overs plays.
Only 2 weeks of the regular season left and here are my handicap projections with Dave from Australia projections to the right and GGGaming opening lines in brackets - all based on the home team
Highlanders -8.5 v Bulls -9.5 (-10.5)
Reds +3.5 v Blues -1.5 (11/10)
Crusaders -16.5 v Rebels -16.5 (-14.5)
Waratahs -1.5 v Brumbies +6.5 (13/20)
Lions -0.5 v Hurricanes +2.5 (8/10)
Stormers -22.5 v Sunwolves -22.5 (-19.5)
Jaguares -5.5 v Sharks -7.5 (-7.5)
Video to follow
**My Updated Lines After Teams**
Highlanders -9.5 - No Bets for me
Reds -2.0 - Rieko and PT out for Blues, Tate big loss for reds, but I think the Blues get man handled at set piece. Decent go on the Reds +3.5 for me
Crusaders -19.0 - No idea here.
**Updated After Teams**
Tahs -0.5 - No bet here, cant believe they not resting here.
Lions +0.5 - Key outs for the Canes, maybe back them 2nd half handicap.
Stormers -19.5 - These to team lineups stink! was hoping to back the Stormers, but staying well away now.
Waiting on Jags team
*Last one**
Jags -7.0 - No bet
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- Brent Graham
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Jaguares v Sharks where I have eventually settled on -5.5 Jags
Stormers v Sunwolves where I am leaning Sunwolves on the handicap but will settle on the Semisi Masirewa ats play suggested in The Handicap live chat - price to follow
Lions v Hurricanes where over 51.5 stands out as the bet of the weekend with no real strong fancies competing with it
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- Pierrebal
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Over 32.5 points 17/20
Try Handicap -1.5 17/20
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- Scoembo
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Pierrebal wrote: Sweet on the Highlanders this morning,:
Over 32.5 points 17/20
Try Handicap -1.5 17/20
Agree Pierrebal. Also took some Landers to score within 20 minutes.
Moving on to the Blues game I think they might actually beat the handicap of 2 today. Blues are like the Sharks in the fact that theres a lot of pressure to perform at home and they actually play their best games away from home. The Reds also lost Tate Mcdermot and nobody has said anything about Sefa Naivalu being sidelined since last week. One of their top carriers. Lukhan Salakaia-Loto also rested this week who also gets them nice go forward ball usually.
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- southpaw
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southpaw wrote: my form on Friday games last week was terrible but i'm flying into this one early -
Highlanders -8 @ 10/11
It's a simple must win, must get bonus pt situation for Highlanders. Results on weekend gave them a chance to haul in teams around them and after a bye week with several key players back from injury against a Bulls side playing last game of a very long tour, i can see the home side winning by a couple tries.
Was quite heavily invested early doors on the Highlanders minus, thought it would have got to about 12 Pts by now but pollard return tempered that.
Still happy with this bet and quite confident.
For smaller interest - 1st try NAHOLO 8/1
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- bradie82
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Landers to score a try before 20” @ 1.61
Bulls under 23.5 @ 1.85
Bulls under 2.5 tries @ 1.95
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- southpaw
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Highlanders over 31.5
Highlanders over 15.5 1st half pts
Highlanders over 14.5 2nd half pts
Will start weekend with a bang or whimper.
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- southpaw
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Terrible Highlanders and by looks of a poor result for most punters. Friday games continue to be my bogey.
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southpaw wrote: Is there a whimper emoji?
Terrible Highlanders and by looks of a poor result for most punters. Friday games continue to be my bogey.
I must agree with you here. Have gotten the last 2 Fridays horribly wrong
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- BookieDave
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This wont be fun to watch!
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- slaterj
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The Rebels have fallen off a cliff in the past few weeks however Saders have been poor covering caps pretty much all season!
Yes they are at home and usually strong in Christchurch but i just get the impression things are not right behind the scenes..
Crusaders could smash the Rebels by 40 but then again only win by 7 i think the line being 22 is a lot but i just do not rate the Rebels at all..
I've just been online and as far as i can see there is no adverse weather down in Christchurch will leans me more towards the Saders. Any thoughts?
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- BookieDave
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Its a big Handicap for a team (Crusaders) who have been playing very average...
Im on the plus..
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- slaterj
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Yes it's a huge cap (over 3 converted tries) but the only snag is i cannot see Rebels doing anything at all going forward. The Saders are missing Franks badly but i reckon the + is perhaps the right way to go.
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- Brent Graham
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- Brad Breath
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Wouldn't touch the -22 if I didn't have the above.
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- southpaw
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Need an angry, fast start from Saders.
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- bradie82
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Crusaders -9.5 HT @ 1.85
For fun Sarders R20 HT @ 2.20
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- BookieDave
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What the hell was Ruru doing not kicking it out!!!!!!!!!
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- slaterj
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Scott Barrett is a machine.
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- Brent Graham
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