Rugby World Cup - Pool matches 20-22 September
- Brent Graham
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This 1st thread will cover the 1st 7 matches from Japan v Russia on Friday to England v Tonga the last game on Sunday
Any outright or long term bets can still be posted on this thread
Let's make sure this is a tournament for the punters
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- Brent Graham
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- hanrick
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Have taken a small bet on no try in Ireland vs Scotland at 50/1. Price seems way too high. I would make it 20/1
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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Japan -40.5 vs Russia
Russia have had a very poor build up and look like they will be out of their depth this WC. Although this is a big handicap, Japs should cover but not much confidence in the -40.5. Very happy to be involved heavily involved in -17.5
Aus -15.5 vs Fiji
More than happy to take the Fijian plus here. Aus aren't a ruthless side and will battle through this game. Fiji much improved and look impressive on paper with European stars. Fiji + my best bet of the opening round.
France -1.5 vs Argentina
Arg generally good in WCs but they haven't built up much momentum after the fine season that the Jags had. Bit of a coin toss but would favour France to get the job done.
NZ -7.5 vs Boks
Boks are in superb form with a settled XV to give one optimism going into this WC. They are more prepared with respect to the conditions. NZ less so and still unsure of their best XV. I expect NZ to narrowly win this game and will be looking at a NZ 1-12 play. Boks +7.5 should come in.
Italy -29.5 vs Namibia:
The least enticing game this weekend. Italy are poor but have a decent coach in O'Shea. Namibia very unknown and yet to win a WC game. If Italy play a strong side, I expect them to cover the minus.
Ireland -9.5 vs Scotland
Difficult to have any feel on this game as the handicap feels like it's well priced. Would take the plus if forced, but there is easier money to be made this weekend.
End -39.5 vs Tonga
Tonga staring down the barrel in this one. If England play a strong line up and click, this could get very ugly. Can't see Tonga scoring many so the Eng - looks good here.
Wales -26.5 vs Georgia
I have a weird feeling that Georgia could cover this cap. Wales aren't a ruthless outfit and will have their focus on the Aus game. Expect a weakened Welsh team against an emotional Georgian outfit.
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- BDub
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-39.5 is a bit high for my blood but will get stuck in at -35.5 at 6/10 for a little more security.
Russia comprises mostly players from 2 clubs that regularly took 60 points in the challenge cup. Their coach lyn Jones has admitted their fitness is poor. Watching their tackling against Italy, Jersey Reds and Connacht they’re going to concede plenty. My concern with Japan is first game nerves and the fact that they’ve never put a really big score against another team. I do however think they’ll run Russia into the ground with their fast style of play, the hot humid conditions and their superior fitness levels. I just don’t like how Japan concede soft tries to bigger players and lack that killer instinct. They should have smoked a poor Tonga side by more than 34.
Weather should be ok and Nigel Owens as ref will also favor Japan as he won’t allow cynical play by the Russians which weaker refs won’t blow. Don’t be surprised to see a few yellows as the Russians will try everything to shut down the attack. I’m also hoping Jamie Joseph will tell the guys not to take the foot off the pedal as I think with possible canceled games points difference could be crucial in their group.
Hoping the cap will come down a little with some punters backing the Russians but I wouldn’t be surprised if this was a 50 point win.
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- southpaw
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But remember it's a marathon not a sprint. Tournament runs well into November, make sure you don't go too hard too early, pace and punting go hand-in-hand. I think this is the one RWC where opening round will tell us so much more re how things play out.
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- Northerner
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The double that had been previously advised for Japan and Italy to win both halves at 5/4. Odds have shortened up dramatically since at around 1/2 for the double so thanks for the tip there guys
Also on Japan 51+ at a huge 20/1, which I’m quite excited about - got £25 on which was the max limit allowed. See that’s now floating around 2/1 - 3/1
Good luck guys!
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- bradie82
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Médard - Penaud, Vakatawa, Fickou, Huget - (o) Ntamack, (m) Dupont - Ollivon, Alldritt, Lauret - Vahaamahina, Iturria - Slimani, Guirado (cap.), Poirot.
Quite a lack of experience and on top of that, Fickou & Vaka never played together, same for the trio Aldritt/Lauret/Ollivon, No real kicker, Lauret barely played during the friendly and clearly not my first choice, Guirado is not the player he used to be...not fan at all of the squad...
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- threepeat
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I find myself carrying a significant bet on AB left wing Rieko Ioane to be tournament top try scorer, from pre Rugby Championship. He won me $ last year on top AB try scorer for 2018.
He has now moved out to 12-1, and as is the third favourite AB winger to be TTTS
I am trying to cover the bet and cannot go for Sevu Reece or George Bridge.
Sevu is a top try scoring Super Crusader winger, but will get limited time due to Hansen's preference to use a double fullback defence against Tier 1 flyhalves, and Sevu's limited International experience.
I am expecting Rieko to return to blazing form in the RWC. His strike rate is 22 trys from 24 tests. Last year he was Maori Rugby Player of the year, recently NZRU Sevens Player of the Year & Internationally, World Break Through Player of the Year 2018. The rise and rise of George Bridge will unfortunately keep him out of either the Namibia or Canada games. Reiko is still only 22 andhas had to deal with the bullshit treatment of his brother Akira. Expect to see him in the RWC final.
My insurance bet is therefore not an AB, but one unit on Marika Koroibete @ 41-1
Koroibete has no competition from fellow Wallabies so I am also adding a new bet of 10 units on MK to be top Wallaby RWC try scorer at 6-1 (tab nz).
Please comment on your Bok wingers. I am a Aphiwe Dyantyi fan, but he is not there for more than one reason!
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- southpaw
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- threepeat
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southpaw wrote: Ioane won’t make squad vs Boks. At least that’s my own view. Therefore in your favour is that he likely starts vs Canada where tries will flow. He then needs to have a big match or 2 and displace Bridge for rest of tournament. But at this point I don’t see him in first choice 23 if Hansen prefers Smith or JB on bench.
Thank you Southpaw. i remember you getting on Sevu Reece @18-1, good luck with that, he is on the rise will get two of the soft games, which should be 5 or 6 tries.
I am not sure who will start on the left wing v the Boks but going with Reiko, as he did not play v Tonga. Will have a lost a few kilos since arriving in Japan. He was terrible for Auckland in Mitre 10 Cup.
I am thinking that Barrett will start at 10 for the AB's in game 1. No need to show the Boks the 10/15 combo again. NZ expects to c Boks again in final.
Plus they only picked two fly halves. Why risk them both? It is a bit odd. Cheers 3P
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- Rohan11
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I have a few multiple bets that I have put down a few weeks ago and are very glad for the cap that moved in the right direction for me for most of the games.
Multiple 1:
Japan - 34.5
France - 1.5
Italy - 23.5
England - 29.5
Wales -23.5
odds: 24/1
Multple 2:
put a small stake on all 1st round games to be more points in second half. odd:117/1
Also took the same bet but left out the SA vs NZ game: odds:68/1
My reason for this is that all the smaller teams will come out gun blazing in the first half where the more experience sides and well managed sides will try to game manage the whole of 80min due to the humidity.
One last bet for now is the game between Scotland and Ireland. Took the both half tied bet. @25/1
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- BDub
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- BDub
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BDub wrote: My initial strong favorite for Round 1 is Japan vs Russia. Been following this bet for a few months. Got involved at -22.5 and -25.5 but not as heavily as I would have liked.
-39.5 is a bit high for my blood but will get stuck in at -35.5 at 6/10 for a little more security.
Russia comprises mostly players from 2 clubs that regularly took 60 points in the challenge cup. Their coach lyn Jones has admitted their fitness is poor. Watching their tackling against Italy, Jersey Reds and Connacht they’re going to concede plenty. My concern with Japan is first game nerves and the fact that they’ve never put a really big score against another team. I do however think they’ll run Russia into the ground with their fast style of play, the hot humid conditions and their superior fitness levels. I just don’t like how Japan concede soft tries to bigger players and lack that killer instinct. They should have smoked a poor Tonga side by more than 34.
Weather should be ok and Nigel Owens as ref will also favor Japan as he won’t allow cynical play by the Russians which weaker refs won’t blow. Don’t be surprised to see a few yellows as the Russians will try everything to shut down the attack. I’m also hoping Jamie Joseph will tell the guys not to take the foot off the pedal as I think with possible canceled games points difference could be crucial in their group.
Hoping the cap will come down a little with some punters backing the Russians but I wouldn’t be surprised if this was a 50 point win.
Strongest possible Japan side vs Russia with the exception of Mafi and Fukuoka. Mafi is a big loss as he brings that ball carrying mongrel the Japanese desperately need. Himeno is a smart and handy number 8 and should do the trick. Lappies will have to carry some of the physical load now.
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- Kirky
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The four stakes I’ve placed are (scale 1-5) as follows (My unit scale is based on dividing my budget to cover bets):
Canterbury -24.5 vs Manawathu Turbos 3 units. (85% certainty)
The Turbos are junk, despite Ngani Laumape they only managed 5 points over Southland last week in a really shabby game, and Canterbury have clicked.
Hawkes Bay Magpies -1.5 vs Taranaki Bulls 2 units (85%).
Too much respect given to Taranaki, who’ve only beaten weaker teams earlier in the tournament. Magpies should eat them.
Tasman Mako -12.5 vs Waikato Mooloos 1 unit. (80%)
The Mako had a hiccup last week, only scraping home. They’ll show up this week, whilst the Mooloos are unravelling a bit.
BOP Steamers -12.5 vs Northland Taniwha 4 units (Golden bet +90% certainty)
The Taniwha are just plain rubbish. If some of my earlier bets find the win as I’m expecting, then I’ll double-up on the Steamers for this final game on Sunday.
Good luck everyone, turning my attention to the ‘real thing’ RWC now
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- southpaw
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- bradie82
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First scoring play : try japan @ 2.12 on 888
Its 1.40 on bet365 so I see it as a value
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- Stoossy
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southpaw wrote: Japan v Russia - UNDER 65.5 total pts @ 5/6 (Sunbet)
good play
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- Brad Breath
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Hawkes Bay win @ 1.80 (placed earlier today)
Going the other way on the Turbos though, Canterbury making 9 changes from last week and have named a rather weak looking backline. (Their pack is strong however).
Think this line is perhaps 5 points too big.
Manawatu +26 @ 1.91
Lastly I'm happy to oppose Otago again this week. They're decent at home, particularly when the Sheild is on the line, but hopeless on the road. Harbour scrum dominated the Mako scrum last week - they'll decimate the Otago pack.
North Harbour -10 @ 1.91
(Smaller stake for now until lineups available)
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- Kirky
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Brad Breath wrote: Going the other way on the Turbos though, Canterbury making 9 changes from last week and have named a rather weak looking backline. (Their pack is strong however).
Think this line is perhaps 5 points too big.
Manawatu +26 @ 1.91
Thanks for the warning Brad. Agree that the cap may be too high with the changes.
I'm trying to cash out my bet with Sportingbet, but suddenly there's no cash-out option on it. So I've emailed them to take me out of it.
So, I'm either in it, or I'm out of it
I'm hoping luck will prevail - ha
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- BDub
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bradie82 wrote: That should be the French squad against Argentina
Médard - Penaud, Vakatawa, Fickou, Huget - (o) Ntamack, (m) Dupont - Ollivon, Alldritt, Lauret - Vahaamahina, Iturria - Slimani, Guirado (cap.), Poirot.
Quite a lack of experience and on top of that, Fickou & Vaka never played together, same for the trio Aldritt/Lauret/Ollivon, No real kicker, Lauret barely played during the friendly and clearly not my first choice, Guirado is not the player he used to be...not fan at all of the squad...
Spot on Bradie. Thought Raka would have been a definite starter. With Fofana injured and López on the bench I’m piling into the Argies. They would have received some much needed game time rest the past few weeks and should be raring to go. Also think their international record for the past few months must be taken with a pinch of salt. Alla Oracle there’s no room for fence sitting!!
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- threepeat
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tab nz
Canterbury
(-22.5)
Points Start
Canterbury v Manawatu
@ 1.87
3 of 10
Giving the Lamaphe factor minimal respect.
Nothing wrong with this Canterbury 23. Great to see the big man, Romano there to get all the line outs.
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- Wies Bang
Like the total points line here.
Going over 61.5
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- hanrick
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- mackem
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..
goodforthegame.co.za/RWC-2019/japan-v-ru...betting-preview.html
Brent's pick, 3 units Japan -17.5 T Handicap at 0.87/1 at Sunbet
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- threepeat
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hanrick wrote: Turbos +23.5 and Canterbury under 42.5 for me
Hi Hanrick, was just wondering what your view of Jerome Garces as an unders or overs ref?
Not that popular here as he has red carded 50% of all AB's ever red carded! Also know in 2015 he refereed Japan's victory over South Africa at Brighton's during that year's World Cup tournament, and later refereed his first world cup semi-final when he took charge of the New Zealand vs South Africa game. Cheers 3P
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- hanrick
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threepeat wrote:
hanrick wrote: Turbos +23.5 and Canterbury under 42.5 for me
Hi Hanrick, was just wondering what your view of Jerome Garces as an unders or overs ref?
Not that popular here as he has red carded 50% of all AB's ever red carded! Also know in 2015 he refereed Japan's victory over South Africa at Brighton's during that year's World Cup tournament, and later refereed his first world cup semi-final when he took charge of the New Zealand vs South Africa game. Cheers 3P
IMO not really an out and out overs or unders ref. If anything I would lean slighty overs ref. Most of the experienced international refs are overs refs IMO.
On the overs/unders note, I would not touch any overs bet at this WC. Would rather stay out if I fancy overs.
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- Kirky
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Kirky wrote:
Brad Breath wrote: Going the other way on the Turbos though, Canterbury making 9 changes from last week and have named a rather weak looking backline. (Their pack is strong however).
Think this line is perhaps 5 points too big.
Manawatu +26 @ 1.91
Thanks for the warning Brad. Agree that the cap may be too high with the changes.
I'm trying to cash out my bet with Sportingbet, but suddenly there's no cash-out option on it. So I've emailed them to take me out of it.
So, I'm either in it, or I'm out of it
I'm hoping luck will prevail - ha
I've never been so glad to see a rugby team lose as I was to see Canterbury beaten by the Turbos just now.
How disrespectful of their coaches and management to change 9 players - I hope someone is fired. Go Turbos you good thing.
Still waiting to hear if Sportingbet will allow my Canterbury bet cashout as I requested 3 hours before the game. This could just be the end of my relationship with them, if they want to throw my money away. I will keep the forum advised.
Good call Hanrick, dunno why I don't just wait to see which way you go first before I bet.
But last weeks Canterbury would have easily covered that minus, I don't think Turbos won because they're good, but because Canterbury were so kak with putting their B side in. IMO.
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- mackem
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goodforthegame.co.za/RWC-2019/new-zealan...betting-preview.html
3 Units Springboks to win at 9/4 WSB, 0.5 Units the draw 28/1 at WSB
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- bradie82
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bradie82 wrote: Japan vs Russia
First scoring play : try japan @ 2.12 on 888
Its 1.40 on bet365 so I see it as a value
For tomorrow, on top of the first scoring play, I like Russia to get 1st card @ 2.37 – going for a higher odd (the over 0.5 is at 1.67)
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- mackem
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- harry_rag
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Russia +41 at evens with Skybet
Basically, if you discount games against Korea and Hong Kong, Japan rarely score 41 points, let alone win by that big a margin. Some people got some attractive low lines for Japan before Russia's recent poor results but I think the market has over reacted and I think Russia are more likely than not to stay within that start.
Russia to be shown the first yellow card at 15/8 with PP and >1.5 total cards shown at 3/1 with Hills
I just think both prices err on the generous side. >0.5 cards is odds on and Russia have to be favourites to receive the first one, as flagged by Bradie82. On past experience I was expecting 9/4 to be the best price for 2 or more cards so 3/1 seems worth a go.
Anytime tryscorers: Selskiy at 17/2 with SX, Ostroushko at 9/1 with 888 and (all 14/1 with Lads); Gadzhiev, Vavilin and Fedotko
One will show a profit, I have happy memories of landing two 18/1 Russian tryscorers in one game back in 2011 so couldn't resist having a look at the prices for tomorrow.
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- Brad Breath
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Japan -22 @ 1.83
Japan -25 @ 1.91
Italy -19 @ 1.91
Japan and Italy to win both halves (thanks Bradie) @ 2.25
Japan by 50+ @ 22 (thanks Northerner)
Arg +3.5 @ 2
An acca @ 14.60 I'm quite excited about:
Japan -17
SA +13
Italy -19
Fiji +17
And a couple of beers on: No try in Ireland v Scotland @ 67 (thanks Hanrick)
Good luck gentlemen!!!
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- hanrick
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- mackem
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goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...betting-preview.html
Couch's picks with BetOlimp
Total points under 45.5 @ 1.85
South Africa to win @ 3.20
HT/FT Winning Margin - SA to lead by 1-8 at HT and win by 1-12 @ 12.00
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- mackem
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Australia v Fiji, Saturday
goodforthegame.co.za/RWC-2019/australia-...betting-preview.html
4 Units Fiji Under 18.5 points at 1.84/1 at Sunbet
France v Argentina Saturday
goodforthegame.co.za/RWC-2019/france-v-a...betting-preview.html
5 Units France win at 8/10 at Sunbet
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- kompos
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hi Hanrick - which bookie do you get the alternate h'caps from, especially the -28.5 Japs at 16/10 (your early bet)hanrick wrote: Strong England team. Have fired into England -38.5 at 9/10 and half the stake -43.5 at 13/10
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- hanrick
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kompos wrote:
hi Hanrick - which bookie do you get the alternate h'caps from, especially the -28.5 Japs at 16/10 (your early bet)hanrick wrote: Strong England team. Have fired into England -38.5 at 9/10 and half the stake -43.5 at 13/10
Japs one was with Playabets. Betway also offer it. England this morning was with Betxchange
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- mackem
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- BDub
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- Thrasher6
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Edit: Didnt mean to post this three times...
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- Thrasher6
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- BDub
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Thrasher6 wrote: Compilers 1 Forumites/smartarses 0
Such a classy comment!
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- harry_rag
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Just taken an interest in the handicaps on tomorrow's games so far, treble with Hills (boosted) pays 8.724:
Australia -15, France -1, South Africa +7
Done the 3 singles, all at evens (got -14 Australia with Betway).
Strongest selection of the 3 for me is SA +7 though none are as confident as the Russia bet today.
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- Tarka
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- harry_rag
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BDub wrote:
Thrasher6 wrote: Compilers 1 Forumites/smartarses 0
Such a classy comment!
Did find myself wondering why someone would be so quick to post that when they hadn't bothered to offer a view either way beforehand, but maybe the fact that they "accidentally" posted it 3 times goes some way to explain it!
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- BDub
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harry_rag wrote:
BDub wrote:
Thrasher6 wrote: Compilers 1 Forumites/smartarses 0
Such a classy comment!
Did find myself wondering why someone would be so quick to post that when they hadn't bothered to offer a view either way beforehand, but maybe the fact that they "accidentally" posted it 3 times goes some way to explain it!
There is in my opinion nobody worse that gloats on someone’s else’s loss. I respect people’s bets on this forum whichever way they go.
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- hanrick
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BDub wrote:
harry_rag wrote:
BDub wrote:
Thrasher6 wrote: Compilers 1 Forumites/smartarses 0
Such a classy comment!
Did find myself wondering why someone would be so quick to post that when they hadn't bothered to offer a view either way beforehand, but maybe the fact that they "accidentally" posted it 3 times goes some way to explain it!
There is in my opinion nobody worse that gloats on someone’s else’s loss. I respect people’s bets on this forum whichever way they go.
The absolute worse. People who gloats on someone else's loss is the scum of this earth. I completely lose my mind when I lose money and someone finds joy in it.
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