NRL 2021
- Quill
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Both teams are out of contention for the play-offs.
Both teams have poor defences and the Tigers matches are overish in general.
With the Cowboys playing at home in good weather and ground conditions, this should be a try fest.
Bet 1: Over 51.5 Points @1.91
Bet 2: Over 9.5 tries @2.13
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- Thrasher6
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Oh no...they miss the f#cking penalty....you can't make it up..
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- Quill
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I've had a bad weekend in NRL so far, so trying to come back to light here.
This is a big match in the fight to catch a play-off spot. Both teams are sitting just outside the play-off zone and a win is crucial here.
These teams are quite even, however as the money has come in heavily for the Knights, now the Sharks have a big line in their favour, so I think the value lies in backing the Sharks here.
Newcastle are a bottom four scoring team and the Sharks rank top 9 in both scoring and defence.
Bet: Sharks +8.5 @1.91
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- Quill
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Gold Coast Titans vs Melbourne Storm
The Titans were outclassed by the Rabbitohs last week, 36-6.
Melbourne Storm are a step up in class, so the Titans are in for another difficult match-up.
While I do expect the Storm to win this, they are on an 18 match winning streak, they haven't covered the handicap in 3 of their last 4 matches.
The Titans should try and put on a more decent show this time, after their demolition last week.
Josh Addo-Carr, the fastest man in the competition, is a leading try scorer for Melbourne Storm, but he hasn't scored in the last three appearances, so it's time for him to appear on the scoresheet.
The Storm have scored at least one try prior to the ten minute mark in each of their last seven outings, with last week’s win over Canberra the only one in which they did not open the scoring, but still scored before 10 minutes.
With Melbourne having not covered the handicap in their recent matches, and even 2 months ago it was a tight win for Melbourne (20-14), with totals not covered in their last few matches, I looked at alternative bets.
Bet 1: Addo-Carr to score a try + Melbourne (-7.5) Alternative Line + Melbourne Over 27.5 points (Alternative) @1.80, sportsbet (same game multi)
Bet 2: Team Time of First Try - Melbourne before 10 mins 30 secs @1.80, bet365
Bet 3: Josh Addo-Carr to score 1st, 2nd or 3rd try @2.20, sportsbet
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- Quill
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Bet: Over 51.5 points @1.81
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- Brad Breath
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Then it looked like he'd play and the line then blew out, I managed to get some +16 on the news he wouldn't in fact be lining up
Outrageous how a line can move so much on one bloke
Hoping for a nice middle....
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- Quill
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Bet 2: Under 50.0 points @1.81
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- Quill
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Bet 1: Rabbitohs @2.06
Bet 2: Under 48.0 @1.80
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- Brad Breath
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The under has hit 17 of the last 21 games between these 2 sides
Under 50.5 @ 1.83
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- Brad Breath
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Eels win
Chooks win
Warriors +6.5
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- Quill
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Bet 1: Brisbane @2.00
Bet 2: Team Total Points - Brisbane Over 22.5 @1.91
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- Quill
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Same question applies to some shocking TMO decisions we've seen.
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- Brad Breath
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Quill wrote: What does it take to just send the Bunker home, make them do something else and leave Rugby League alone?
Same question applies to some shocking TMO decisions we've seen.
Personally I don't mind the concept of the bunker - my problem however is with some of the clowns that man it.
Henry Perenara should be absolutely nowhere near it. That last Warriors try yesterday was a joke!
On a betting note - have made an early play on the Sea Eagles -24
Expecting Turbo back, they'll completely and utterly destroy the Dogs
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- Couch Critic
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Agree on Manly this week. Have never seen one team more reliant on a single player than the Sea Eagles are on Tommy Turbo. Also unders for Dragons vs Cowboys stands out at this early stage.
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- Quill
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Brad Breath wrote:
Quill wrote: What does it take to just send the Bunker home, make them do something else and leave Rugby League alone?
Same question applies to some shocking TMO decisions we've seen.
Personally I don't mind the concept of the bunker - my problem however is with some of the clowns that man it.
Henry Perenara should be absolutely nowhere near it. That last Warriors try yesterday was a joke!
...
That's exactly what I meant.
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- Quill
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The match is played on the Sunshine Coast, basically a home game for the Titans.
The Knights are on 24 points on 7th, followed by three teams on 20 points with two games remaining.
After this match the Knights play against Brisbane Broncos.
The Titans winning run of form came to an end at the hands of the Rabbitohs and Storm last week, but they still played some great footy against the Storm and were leading 16-12 at half time.
The Titans have lots to play for and are in with realistic chances to make it to the play-offs.
Given the porous Knights defence, I'll take the Titans on Team Total as well.
Bet 1: Titans @1.83
Bet 2: Team Total - Titans Over 22.5 points @1.82
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- Quill
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Bet 1: Total Points Over 44.0 @1.90
Bet 2: Canberra Team Total Over 18.5 @2.13
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- Brad Breath
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Main bet Bunnies -10 @ 1.73
Smaller bets:
Bunnies -12 @ 1.91
Bunnies over 29.5 @ 1.91
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- Quill
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Much better odds than what I can get at my bookies.Brad Breath wrote: I like the Bunnies today
Main bet Bunnies -10 @ 1.73
Smaller bets:
Bunnies -12 @ 1.91
Bunnies over 29.5 @ 1.91
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- Brad Breath
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Quill wrote:
Much better odds than what I can get at my bookies.Brad Breath wrote: I like the Bunnies today
Main bet Bunnies -10 @ 1.73
Smaller bets:
Bunnies -12 @ 1.91
Bunnies over 29.5 @ 1.91
This was 12 hours ago, bookie is Boyle
Unlucky with the points play in Raiders match mate!
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- Quill
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Oh, that explains it (12 hrs ago).Brad Breath wrote:
Quill wrote:
Much better odds than what I can get at my bookies.Brad Breath wrote: I like the Bunnies today
Main bet Bunnies -10 @ 1.73
Smaller bets:
Bunnies -12 @ 1.91
Bunnies over 29.5 @ 1.91
This was 12 hours ago, bookie is Boyle
Unlucky with the points play in Raiders match mate!
Yes, unlucky with the total points (arghh, Rapana left a few points on the park ), but at least the team total gave me a good start to the weekend.
Good luck!
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- Quill
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The Broncos have been improving, and while they did lose some matches, they were against top teams and they kept tight nonetheless.
Last week they beat NZ Warriors, a play-off contender, and took them out of the play-offs run.
Now they face the Sharks and I think that they will put up another good performance, especially on their home ground and in front of their fans, like in the first match, in July (26-18 to the Broncos).
Bet: Brisbane Broncos +7.5 @1.80
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- Quill
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Bet 1: Manly HT Team Total Over 20.5 @1.96
Bet 2: Manly FT Team Total Over 44.5 @1.98
Bet 3: Manly HT -15.5 @1.80
Bet 4: Manly FT -34.5 @1.90, all at sportsbet.com.au
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- Quill
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Bet: Penrith -29.5 @1.91
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- Quill
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The Roosters get back Angus Crichton, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Josh Morris and Matt Ikuvalu.
Canberra have lost Bailey Simonsson and Dunamis Lui to injury but are boosted by Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad starting at fullback.
The Raiders may have left it too late? They must win this and Cronulla Sharks to lose to Melbourne.
Because of the four players returning, I took the Roosters -2.5 @1.95.
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- Brad Breath
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2 others I took on team news were:
Panthers -14 @ 1.91 and
Dragons +14 @ 1.91, both at Boylesports
Both lines moved by 2 scores shortly afterwards
24 hours later I have an email from them advising they won't be accepting bets from me anymore
Another decent bookie down the pan
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- Quill
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Melbourne had a horror night last time out, as Josh Addo-Carr went out with a hamstring injury and Jesse Bromwich got suspended, so they are ruled out of this matchup. Their coach has again opted - as he did last year - to rest several other starting players for the final round.
Even so, Melbourne still have very good players in the reserves, so they might still be too good for this Sharks team.
They need to win to secure the minor premiership.
The Storm played with their B team before during this season and they were hard to beat then too. Not only that, but they kept winning. They had 19 wins in a row until last week, so now they have to bounce back.
Bet: Melbourne -7.5 @1.88
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- Quill
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The Eels have named a second string squad to take on Penrith.
It’s going to be a big task for the inexperienced players including a debuting full-back.
Ivan Cleary is going all-in with a full strength squad for this one.
Penrith Panthers will win comfortably, they'll be too skilful for the Eels tonight.
Parramatta have no more than a try in them, against this Panthers team, who have the best defence in the league, having conceded fewer points than Melbourne.
The Panthers will score as much as they want.
Bet 1: Panthers -28.5 @1.94
Bet 2: Team Total Tries - Eels Under 1.5 @1.72
Bet 3: Team Total Points - Panthers Over 36.5 @1.92
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- Quill
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The Sea Eagles have been involved in the most high scoring matches than any other team.
The Cowboys are in top 4 highest scoring matches.
This year the Sea Eagles have averaged 40.27 points per game when winning - the best such rate in the league.
Bet 1: Total Points Over 53.5 @1.93
Bet 2: Team Total Points - Sea Eagles Over 37.5 @1.82
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- Quill
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The Warriors are out of the finals contention.
The Titans have had the results go their way and both Canberra and Cronulla lost their last matches of the regular season. This gives the Titans the opportunity to play for the last play-off spot on home ground in front of their own fans.
Gold Coast on home turf in warm and dry conditions should be able to run in a big score against the Warriors and cover the difference they need, which is exactly what the bookies set the handicap at: 12 points.
Bet: Titans -11.5 @1.90
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- Brad Breath
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Roosters get Radley & JWH back, I fancy them to outclass the Titans
Roosters -10 @ 1.91
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- Couch Critic
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Twitter: @HDiemont
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- Quill
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I'm trying.
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- Relaxguys
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Keep rocking on for the finals!
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- Quill
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Cameron Munster has been confirmed for tonight in Storm's squad, after a knee injury.
The Storm have cruised through this season and Papenhuyzen is back in great form after his concussion, at the right time.
Manly Sea Eagles are heavily reliant on Trbojevic, but last time they played, one month ago, Melbourne beat them 28-18, with Tom in Manly's line up.
The Sea Eagles may have finished top 4, but in their last few games, before they crushed the lowly Cowboys in the last round, they struggled against Canberra, who didn't make it to the finals, and struggled against the Bulldogs for more than 60 minutes until they moved ahead on the scoreboard.
Melbourne Storm have been (again) the benchmark in 2021, recording 19 consecutive victories on their way to yet another minor premiership.
Storm -7.5 @1.83, Pinnacle
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- Quill
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Six of the last seven matches between these two sides have gone under. Moreover, this is a play-off match, so defences will be hard at work.
Bet 2: Under 44.5 points @1.91
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- Brad Breath
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Modest play Storm 1-12 @ 3.10
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- Quill
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Why did I have to take this bet? The Sea Eagles were lousier than I thought in my main bet.Quill wrote: Taking a second bet in this match.
Six of the last seven matches between these two sides have gone under. Moreover, this is a play-off match, so defences will be hard at work.
Bet 2: Under 44.5 points @1.91
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- Quill
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The Roosters have lost so much talent this season, and yet not only they made it to the finals, but they narrowly missed on a top 4 spot.
The Titans nearly didn't make it at all, and few thought they would. They needed so much to go their way last weekend and got it all. Canberra no-showed against the Roosters. Cronulla could not get over a weakened Storm. Then the Titans did a job on a Warriors team that really had no interest in playing Rugby League.
The Titans being here is enough of an accomplishment for them already. This was their ultimate goal, to the make the final eight.
Bet 1: Roosters -11.5 @1.91
Bet 2: Over 46.5 points @1.91 (smaller bet, as the overs have hit more often than not).
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- Quill
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The Panthers’ season looked to be in all sorts when Nathan Cleary, Jarome Luai and Brian To’o all went down after Origin, but with those three players back in the fold and in outstanding form, the Panthers are back to their ruthless selves.
For the Bunnies, the loss of a player of Mitchell’s ability will be telling against a team like the Panthers. They now look like having very little hope against the Panthers.
Penrith have won five straight against South Sydney including both matches this year. The Panthers won 56-12 in Dubbo and then 25-12 just three weeks back.
I think the Bunnies will struggle against the Panthers fierce defence.
Bet 1: Panthers -10.5 @1.91, bet365
Bet 2: Rabbitohs Under 15.5 @2.00, sportsbet
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- Couch Critic
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Double of Over 41.5 in Roosters match onto Under 48.5 in Panthers clash @ evens.
Roosters over 29.5 points
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- Brad Breath
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Had a nudge on under 44.5 in Panthers v Bunnies
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- Quill
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Newcastle Knights under 17.5 points @2.01
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- Brad Breath
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Modest play Manly -10 @ 1.91
And a decent nudge on this acca:
Manly win, Panthers win & Bristol Bears win @ 2.35
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- Quill
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The Panthers lost last week to the Rabbitohs after a disappointing display.
They will be eager to atone for that poor showing.
The Eels were pushed by a pretty average Knights outfit last week, and they run into a side that is jam-packed with talent, angry, and who simply will not return a poor performance two weeks in a row.
This match is a local derby too, these two sides hate each other. The matches between them return low scores.
Bet 1: Under 42.5 points @1.90
Bet 2: Same Game Multi - Panthers win + Under 48.5 points @1.95
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- Quill
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Double: anytime try scorer
Johnston + Trbojevic @2.87
Over 44.5 points @1.85
Rabbitohs win @1.78
Try before 8 min 30 sec @1.95
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- Brad Breath
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Small interest Cook to score @ 5.50
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- Zambusta
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These are the game totals from the 3 Panther's playoff games so far:
vs Rabbitohs 26
vs Eels 12
vs Storm 16
Their already ridiculous defence has gone up even more in the playoffs.
The points line that's been given looks really generous.
Under 38,5
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- Brad Breath
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And few sheckles on Cam Murray win Clive Churchill medal @ 11
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- Quill
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