Cycling: Tour de France 2021 Betting Thread
- Brent Graham
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- Couch Critic
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Two thoughts from me:
1. Can't help but think we saw the first little chink from Vingegaard yesterday. Looked like Van Aert and Kuss tried to set somehting up for him but he just didn't have the kick left. Huge last climb and just have a feeling he runs out of puff.
2. Different than last year Pogi is dominating the Tour from the start. Given his big lead I think he is starting to look for "legacy" type of performances and winning in yellow is one of those things you really want to do.
Strategy:
Pogi is so short that it really makes it tough to back him. I've taken a bit into a few multies but if a break gets away I hope he drifts to something like 4 or 5/1 in-running. My saver goes onto Uran who I think might be the only one with any shot of staying close to the race leader.
Uran @ 22/1
Double 1: Pogi over Vingegaard onto Uran over Carapaz @ 3/1
Double 2: Buchmann over Fuglsang onto Mas over O'Connor @ evens
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- The Vann
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On today I cannot see anything other then a GC finish. If it was hot I would look at a few bets but its predicted to be cold which is exactly the weather Pogacar likes so only one for me today.
Stage 17
Win
Pogacar @ 28/10
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- mackem
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- Brent Graham
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Movistar for me today lads, have to hope it is not GC for my KOM bet on Poels
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- The Vann
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Stage 18
Win
Kwiatkowski @ 33/1
Chaves @ 33/1
e/w
Bonnamour @ 100/1
and a match bet double
Poels/Guerreiro into Uran/Kelderman @ 3/1
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- The Vann
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The Vann wrote: As Lopez is to Brent so is Chaves to me - just keep banging away. A few days ago Kwiatkowski went for the break with two DQS riders but they were pulled back. I don't buy into yesterdays show.
Stage 18
Win
Kwiatkowski @ 33/1
Chaves @ 33/1
e/w
Bonnamour @ 100/1
and a match bet double
Poels/Guerreiro into Uran/Kelderman @ 3/1
Not sure about the match bet. Bahrain hotel and bus raided last night so how do their riders react today?
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- The Vann
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The Vann wrote:
The Vann wrote: As Lopez is to Brent so is Chaves to me - just keep banging away. A few days ago Kwiatkowski went for the break with two DQS riders but they were pulled back. I don't buy into yesterdays show.
Stage 18
Win
Kwiatkowski @ 33/1
Chaves @ 33/1
e/w
Bonnamour @ 100/1
and a match bet double
Poels/Guerreiro into Uran/Kelderman @ 3/1
Not sure about the match bet. Bahrain hotel and bus raided last night so how do their riders react today?
Fortunately been betting on cycling way too long to go for any match bet which failed muster the first time around. Will probably go in-play if it looks like last nights events will affect my bet.
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- Brent Graham
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- mackem
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- Couch Critic
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Ballerini 22/1
Brent van Moer 66/1
TdG 125/1
Quintin Pacher 150/1
(And slip streaming the QftG boys on Van Baarle)
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- Couch Critic
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Van Avermaet 100/1
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- The Vann
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I think Mackem has a full house there so going with that and adding
Stage 19
Win
D van Poppel @ 40/1
Laporte @ 66/1 (Would take this if I only had one bet today)
Schelling @ 150/1
Zabel @ 250/1
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- southpaw
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Rutsch 75/1
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- The Vann
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van Aert @ 18/1
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- Couch Critic
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- Brent Graham
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- The Vann
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Today I believe if Pogacar goes he wins easy. Last year Tommy D, ITT world Champ and regular late ITT stage in GT winner was beaten by an exhausted Pogacar by 1m 21sec over 38km. Pogs on record as having ridden the course several times, he likes it and does not look anywhere near as tired as last year.
Taking my match bet on the basis that Kwiatkowski probably won't ride and Bissegger has been first pinky off the back for the past week.
Stage 20
Win
Pogacar @ 9/4
Match bet double
Castroveijo/Kwiatkowski into Berg/Bissegger @ 43/10
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- Brent Graham
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Going for an 8/1 podium shot today
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- The Vann
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I don't know if this is good or bad but I came up with the identical bet to Brent today but via a different route. The last time we saw such a dominant sprint performance was 2009 when Cav was sprinting against second tier sprinters in Farrar, Ciolek etc. He won six stages and his lead out, Renshaw finished second in Paris. This tour reminds me very much of 2009. The only "drol in die drinkwater"today could be van Aert.
Stage 21
Win van Aert @ 11/2
1-3 Morkov @ 8/1
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- southpaw
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Phillipsen 5/1 win
Greipel 55/1 ew
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- The Vann
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Was not a classic tour. Pleased Cavendish never won the final stage as he was busy turning into the dickhead he was in his prime.
On the punting side I did OK with five stage wins but the match bets were not great and the out rights absolute rubbish. My main out right Geraint for a stage went around France on his arse.
Look forward to the Olympic road race and the Vuelta.
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- Brent Graham
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Agree with your comments on Cav - always plays the thankful sprinter praising his team but always been a bit of a box in afrikaans
Money wise my worst GT in ages but I really enjoyed the race
Thanks to everyone who contributed and to Chris with the written previews
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Focused on outrights and landed the double of Pogacar for K.O.M + Jonas Vingegaard Top 10 finish @44/1.
Vingegaard also placed in K.O.M @150/1
And my main Antepost this season was for Ineos to have a rider Podium in each of the 3 Grand Tours @14/1 so with Carapaz now we move onto the final one La Vuelta!
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