Cycling: Tour de France 2021 Betting Thread
- The Vann
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- Brent Graham
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My double landed despite the fact that both selections arrived 25 minutes after the winner
I see Cav just made it
A much needed winner for me and having been a bit down am now studying the stage 10 profile. A likely sprint but the positioning of the intermediate sprint is very interesting and I I think we will see Bahrain and Bike Exchange hammering on the front
Update after stage 9:
Stages -7.9u
Pending 8.5u
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- The Vann
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Looking for something on the rest day and going with KOM.
We are slightly over 1/3 of the way through. If we look at Cats 2/1 and HC we have had 9 with 16 to come. Anyone could join the fun but looking at the present top 4 in the betting my thoughts are
Quintana - Not the shiniest shell on the beach. Will always try and ride someone off his wheel until they are really pissed off and then try to do a deal.
Pogacar - Could easily win - Won last year.
Woods - Can climb with the best and has a kick at top of mountains. Also seems to get into breaks reasonably easily - an art.
Poels - Needs to distance rivals to win mountain top sprints and has to work hard to make breaks.
King of the Mountains
Win
Woods @ 7/1
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- Brent Graham
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- Brent Graham
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Stages -7.9u
Pending 8.5u
Stage 10 Bets
2u Sagan top 3 at 7/2 (originally only went 1 unit but gaining confidence)
0.5u Stuyven at 100/1
0.25u Kung at 66/1
0.25u Brent Van Moer at 150/1
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- mackem
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- The Vann
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Stage 10
1-3
Sagan @ 7/2
Win
van Poppel D @ 80/1
van Avermaert @ 150/1
Walscheid @ 150/1
Eddie the Boss @ 200/1
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- Couch Critic
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Only a match play for me at this stage:
Matthews over Colbrelli @ 2.20
The Italian was great over the climbs but in a straight sprint I think the Aussie will have his number.
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- Brent Graham
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Looking ahead to tomorrow and I logged onto Sportingbet to place a rugby bet to find a R500 free bet waiting for me - it has all gone on Michael Woods at 20/1 (there are better prizes but hey it is a free bet)
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- Brent Graham
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- Couch Critic
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Astana have some brilliant options to pick from and were this stage to finish at the top of the Ventoux MAL might very well have been my one and only play today. As it is I will go for the little man in Pink. Higuita might still have polka in the back of his mind but his primary focuss will surely be the stage win (something that probably differs for Nairo). He was superb going down hill on Stage 9 and if a climber or two accompanies him to the line he also has a handy sprint.
Sergio Higuita @ 25/1
Patrick Konrad @ 50/1
Franck Bonnamour @ 80/1
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- mackem
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- The Vann
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Warm day, lots of elevation, classic stage, long downhill finish and head wind on the big climb. If break stays the stand out for me is Esteban - problem would be getting him in the break. Joining all on Woods - he would need close on a minute over Ventoux as he does not descend with the best and adding a few
Stage 11
Win
Woods @ 20/1
Chaves @ 33/1
Fraile @ 66/1
Geoghagen Hart @ 66/1
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- kcmarinopirlo
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*despite taking 20pts on ventoux and dropping Pogacar Skybet still have Vingegaard at 150/1 ew for the KOM (14/1 elsewhere) Ive piled in
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- Brent Graham
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- Couch Critic
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Another day where it's tough seeing anything but a DQS masterpiece of road cycling so its mainly the match-up bet for me and then some confidence in the Aussie. Matthews finished fifth on Stage 10 and seems to be getting stronger whilst others are fading. I think he is the only one left with a shot of beating Cav to green so expecting him to keep plucking away. If the stage is ridden hard it will also favour him even more.
Top 3 Stage 12 - Matthews @ 6/1
Double: Cav over Wout onto Bol over Greipel @ 13/10
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- The Vann
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Stage 12
Win
van Moer @ 66/1
de Gendt @ 200/1
Schelling @ 200/1
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- Brent Graham
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Had Kung and Van Moer today and really thought Kung would win when he made the top 4
Update after stage 12:
Stages -13.4u
Pending 8.5u
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- Brent Graham
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- mackem
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- The Vann
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Stage 13
Win
van Aert @ 11/1
Stuyven @ 22/1
Laporte @ 66/1
de Gendt @ 80/1
van Baarle @ 250/1
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- gogabee
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Suspect he is after the record and cant let anymore stages go by and risk not getting the record by falling ect.
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- Brent Graham
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Cees Bol 6/10 over Greipel
Greipel in break yesterday and I am hoping pretty tired. Bol had a more relaxed day and I believe he should improve as we get closer to Paris
Stage 13 Bets
0.5u Turgis 50/1, Postlberger 66/1 Bol 33/1
0.25u Van Baarl;e at 250/1
10u Bol/Greipel at 6/10
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- Brent Graham
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Bol you clown or should I say BG you clown
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- kt6747
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I have followed you with yours and gone with some darts for the Break
Quintana @ 66/1
De Gendt @ 66/1 (Had a very quiet tour hoping he likes today)
Elisonde @ 100/1
Catteano @ 40/1
I have also taken the following Match bets as I personally think the price is wrong.
Elisonde/Maulloma @ 28/10
Kuss/Kruiswijk @ 16/10
My biggest bet so far this tour is this one, if Kruiswijk has to stay to protect Jonas, then Kuss is the much better descender and I think would lead the Jumbo team down. But on currrent form could mean kuss cracks on the 1st climb.
Martin/Woods @ 22/10
These are all small just for an interest except for the Kuss punt.
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- mackem
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- The Vann
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Agree with everyone has to be a break today (If memory serves - the last time we all agreed was on the Currie Cup yesterday - so what can go wrong?)
Stage 14
Win
Aranburu @ 28/1
de Gendt @ 66/1
van Avermaet @ 125/1
Durbridge @ 250/1
also think KT's match bets have merit so taking the double
Kuss/Kruijswijk into Martin/Woods @ 15/2
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- southpaw
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- The Vann
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Fraile @ 9/1
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- Brent Graham
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Going for Woods today
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- Brent Graham
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Stages --26.4u
Pending 8.5u
Stage 15 bets
1 unit Woods 25/1
0.5u Buchamnn 66/1
0.25u Van der Baarle 260/1
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- gogabee
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Meintjes 0.5 unit place 40/1 0.5unit win 200/1
Miguel angel lopez 1 unit 18/1
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- Brent Graham
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Brent Graham wrote: Update after stage 14:
Stages --26.4u
Pending 8.5u
Stage 15 bets
1 unit Woods 25/1
0.5u Buchamnn 66/1
0.25u Van der Baarle 260/1
Adding a match bet double - 6 units
Woods/Mollema 5/10 x Van Aert/Alaphilippe at 7/10 - double 31/20 at WSB
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- kt6747
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Woods @ 25/1
Fulgsang @ 40/1
Aranburu @ 150/1
Martin @ 50/1
Geoghan Hart @ 50/1
TGH on basis I remember him enjoying the heat in Vuelta and maybe Ineos will want to put someone in the break on off chance of Carapraz feeling strong. Yes I am dreaming
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- southpaw
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Guerriero 40/1
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- The Vann
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I'm taking the break today on the basis that only light riders/reasonable climbers will get in because of that uphill start.
Stage 15
Win
Chaves @ 40/1
Guerreiro @ 50/1
Buchmann @ 66/1
e/w
Bonnamour @ 150/1
and my pick of the match bets
Lutsenko/Kelderman into Chaves/Cattaneo @ 34/10
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- kt6747
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southpaw wrote: Kuss 25/1
Guerriero 40/1
Great call South
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- southpaw
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kt6747 wrote:
southpaw wrote: Kuss 25/1
Guerriero 40/1
Great call South
Cheers KT! Kuss a guy I’ve rated and backed a few times, heard finish is where he lives or close and that was enough for me. Top climber.
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- The Vann
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southpaw wrote:
kt6747 wrote:
southpaw wrote: Kuss 25/1
Guerriero 40/1
Great call South
Cheers KT! Kuss a guy I’ve rated and backed a few times, heard finish is where he lives or close and that was enough for me. Top climber.
Patched the Leak a little there South
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- The Vann
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Vingegaard has completed one GT the Vuelta last year. He was around the 4th support rider for Roglic and did brilliantly staying with the team through the second week for eg Stage 12 where he finished with Bennett at 14th. Late in the final week for eg Stage 17 he bailed early and finished 62nd 21min down.
Looking at the betting for winner without Pogs we have seven riders separated by under two minutes. The Stage 20 ITT is very similar to the Stage 5 one so lets take the current times behind Pogs and add the Stage 5 ITT time differences.
Vingegaard 5m 59s
Uran 6m 26s
Carapaz 7m 17s
O"Connor 7m 54s
Lutsenko 8m 1s
Kelderman 8m 5s
Mas 9m 0s
We know Uran will stay strong until the finish and he was the last rider to attack Pogs on the Beixalis yesterday. Vingegaard was weaker in the third week of the Vuelta last year and now he has added pressure from the world.
Winner without Pogacar
Uran @ 7/2
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- The Vann
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Depending where you look the finish is between 400-500m with a gradient of 6-7%. Whether there is a break or not I still believe the GC guys will give it a rev up the climb looking for a second or two. I don't see anything in the stage which will prevent the top 10 getting to the finish together so here's the match bet which looks tasty
Stage 16
Mas 7/20 v O"Connor 2/1
I've taken a 4 unit stab at the 2/1.
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- Brent Graham
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- The Vann
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Heavily invested in the match bet so just one for me. Might try something in-play.
Win
Colbrelli @ 33/1
@Brent. Sunbet also carry the win without Pogacar which is where the Uran 7/2 was.
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- Couch Critic
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Astana also just have to play some cards as a Lutsenko Top 10 is surely not enough for them. (They are also one of the few teams that have a mostly healthy squad left but deciding who of their actors gets the leading role is the tough part today). Fraile too short for me so its between Izy, Jacob and Aranburu. Birdsong has shown little to get excited about and Aranburu isn't at his very best I don't think so I will stick with a guy who likes wet weather and descending.
Lastly I have bugger all clue as to his form at present but the French team have had a shit Tour with Demare falling out, Kung not delivering the TT win and Gaudu not in the Top 10 atm. If Madouas can hang tough over the big climbs he is ideal for the finish.
Of course it could very well prove to be a showdown between Wout and Ala P as the betting suggests but whats the fun in that?!
Valverde @ 33/1
Ion Izagirre @ 40/1
Madouas @ 80/1
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- mackem
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- kt6747
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- Naidoo
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- kt6747
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Naidoo wrote: Great calls Brent and Vann.
And Vann, you right Naidoo. Some cheer to my day.
Take care all.
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- Brent Graham
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Update after stage 16:
Stages --19.1u
Pending 8.5u
Disappointed EF didn't hang in the team race and now rooting for Poels for KOM
Big stage tomorrow and video to follow
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