Tennis : The French Open

Quill wrote: Djokovic vs Nadal

And here's my Nadal biased bet

So they changed the schedule to play at night time and did not consider, did not even pretend they took the time to think about Nadal's request to have the match played during the day.
OK.
Let's get past all the things that everybody knows, Djokovic in great form, Nadal not in as good a form as he used to be, Nadal's current injuries, etc.

Nadal is in better form than last year when he lost in 4 sets to Djokovic here.

Two years ago Nadal demolished Djokovic in the semifinals here. Two years ago Nadal was going through injuries as well. He's been playing with injuries for many years now.
Again, two years ago Nadal was not in as great a form as he used to be.

And... two years ago the match was played in the Paris autumn, 12th October, at night, when conditions would have been probably worse than a night time match in Paris spring-summer.

OK, for the sake of argument let's say similar conditions like tonight.

Nadal said that he is giving his all in every match, as it may be his last, because of his foot injury.

These being said, I made myself believe that Rafa can make a match of this and stay in the game long enough to give us some money on this bet.

That is if he doesn't go ahead and wins this in 3 quick sets like 2 years ago (in similar or worse conditions), in which case I don't care if the bet wins or loses.

Bet: Over 37.5 games @1.83

Great call Zverev/Alcaraz Quill. Thought one or the other would win in three.
Running with games here
Over 38.5 @ evens for me

Nadalll!!!

Rublev vs Cilic

Rublev benefitted from Sinner's retirement in the previous match, as he injured his knee.
Rublev lost one set in all his matches here so far.

Cilic has been very good at this tournament so far. He lost only one set, to Fucsovics, the rest he won 3-0 in dominant fashion too, including against Gilles Simon and Medvedev.
Medvedev did say last year that clay was his worst surface, but that was last year.
This year Medvedev won all his three matches in quick straight sets, all against clay-courters, Bagnis, Djere and Kecmanovic.
So Cilic's win against Medvedev was impressive.

I think that Cilic can win this.
I also think, given their form, that this match could go a bit longer and cover this number of games.

Bet 1: Cilic @2.15
Bet 2: Over 38.5 games @1.83

I think any two of the four players on court today could make the semi's so going
Cilic + Rune @ 5/1

Ruud v Rune

Rune over 19.5 games @ 17/20

Iga Swiatek vs Daria Kasatkina

I watched both these players this week and Kasatkina didn't impress me. She was weak mentally, she struggled to hit the winning balls against Kudermetova, she struggled with her serve in the important moments towards the end of the match and Kudermetova herself wasn't great.

Swiatek on the other hand, is the real deal. Not since Serena and Sharapova have I seen such a dominant player.

Kasatkina being here doesn't mean that she will beat Swiatek or take her the distance. This year they met three times and Swiatek owned her every time, dropping just eleven games across those three matches. Kasatkina has failed to win more than three games in a set.
Swiatek is at a level where no matter how well Kasatkina plays, Swiatek will win easily.

Kasatkina does not bring an overly impressive serve into this match and I believe that Swiatek will be able to jump all over her second serve.

Bet: Under 18.5 games @1.88

Trevisan vs Gauff

Both players are in great form.
Gauff has not lost a set here yet.
Trevisan is at a level that she has never before reached.

I think we'll have a long match.

Bet 1: Total 3 sets @2.62 (bet365)
Bet 2: Over 20.5 games @1.83

Quill wrote: Trevisan vs Gauff

Both players are in great form.
Gauff has not lost a set here yet.
Trevisan is at a level that she has never before reached.

I think we'll have a long match.

Bet 1: Total 3 sets @2.62 (bet365)
Bet 2: Over 20.5 games @1.83

6:3 6:1. No good.

Quill wrote: Trevisan vs Gauff

Both players are in great form.
Gauff has not lost a set here yet.
Trevisan is at a level that she has never before reached.

I think we'll have a long match.

Bet 1: Total 3 sets @2.62 (bet365)
Bet 2: Over 20.5 games @1.83

The most important thing in Coco's life has been her high school diploma which she collected just before the tournament started. She is on record as saying it is more difficult than tennis. She is now playing with absolute freedom and I think this would be a good call for the final.

The Vann wrote:

Quill wrote: Trevisan vs Gauff

Both players are in great form.
Gauff has not lost a set here yet.
Trevisan is at a level that she has never before reached.

I think we'll have a long match.

Bet 1: Total 3 sets @2.62 (bet365)
Bet 2: Over 20.5 games @1.83

The most important thing in Coco's life has been her high school diploma which she collected just before the tournament started. She is on record as saying it is more difficult than tennis. She is now playing with absolute freedom and I think this would be a good call for the final.

Yes, saw that. However, I still think that Swiatek takes this.
The handicap is set at +/-5.5, not sure if Swiatek will cover, maybe that's what I'll take for Coco. Haven't decided yet.

Nadal v Zverev
These two don't have a history of long matches. In the past 3 years they have met 4 times and not once has the loser taken a set. I'm hoping over a 5 set match maybe the loser gets one.

Match sets 4 @ 7/4

Nadal vs Zverev

I think that Zverev's final was against Alcaraz. Zverev, as we know, had never beaten a top 10 player at Grand Slams. Zverev prepared himself for THAT match.

He served incredibly well, however he is still gives in under pressure and his second serve is vulnerable, much softer than his first serve.

Conditions should be back in Nadal's favour, with the match scheduled at 2:45 pm local. That’s much better for the Spaniard’s game, even though, as we've already seen, it hardly matters what the situation is whenever he takes the court at Roland Garros.

Given his form throughout the fortnight and two days of rest following his hard-fought defeat of Djokovic, keeping in mind that Zverev didn't have it any easier, that is exactly what the doctor ordered for Nadal.

Zverev has had a poor/ mediocre season with one good performance against Alcaraz. He was poor before that match (although he had some straight sets wins, they were tight sets against lowly ranked players), so it’s really not necessarily the case that he will play well. Alcaraz gave him a lot of free points, which he won't get from Nadal.

Nadal will throw at him whatever Alcaraz did and more.

Bet: Nadal -4.5 @1.89

Horrible injury to Zverev.

Not the way one would want a match to end.

Ruud vs Cilic

Cilic is having a great tournament and a devastating serve.
He has been impressive here, beating Attila Balazs, Marton Fucsovics, Gilles Simon, Daniil Medvedev (in three quick sets) and Andrey Rublev.

Ruud’s road to the semis was more eventful. He struggled against Tsonga in a tight four-setter, went five sets with Lorenzo Sonego, and lost a set to both Hubert Hurkacz and Holger Rune. Only Emil Ruusuvuori in round two failed to steal a set from Ruud.

If Cilic continues to serve the way he has been, he will be able to dictate play and punish Ruud’s backhand with heavy groundstrokes. He should also be able to control rallies much of the time in Ruud’s service games since the eighth seed’s serve isn’t a huge weapon.

I'm not discounting Ruud here, on the contrary, but I just like Cilic's game a little bit more.

I think Ruud is too big a favourite here and that the match will be long enough to cover the number of games.

Bet 1: Cilic +4.5 @1.83
Bet 2: Over 38.5 games @1.83

Really bad. And such a pity as they were producing some glorious tennis.

Ruud v Cilic
Not had any joy calling Ruud in this tournament but I see Quill and myself collected a penny or two on the rugby so lets go.
I think everything about Ruud looks different. His movement is great - he has hit the line off the back-hand side more then I can ever remember. I think Cilic may have a problem on what is not traditionally his good surface

Ruud to win 3-0 @ 22/10

Swiatek vs Gauff

So far Gauff made 33 double faults.
Swiatek only five.

This is only one of the many aspects where Swiatek dominates the tour.

To me, Swiatek looked dominant and a level above everyone else.
She's been winning for so long, she's bound to take this.
Everybody knows it and that's why the odds are so low.

I'm trying the following:

Bet 1: Under 19.5 games @1.80
Bet 2: Swiatek - 5.5 @1.80

Nadal vs Ruud

We all know that Nadal is 13-0 in finals at Roland Garros. Not once has he been extended to five sets in a French Open final and six of the 13 have resulted in straight-set beatdowns.

Also, Nadal is very good at playing those clutch moments.

Nadal said:
“So for me, (it) is not a big surprise. Casper is one of the candidates [to win] every clay-court event that he’s playing. He’s one of the clear favorites, no?”

Well, not in this particular match.

I expect a similar match like the women's final yesterday.

Bet 1: Nadal Under 19.5 games @1.95
Bet 2: Under 35.5 games @1.82
Bet 3: Nadal 3-0 @2.20

Nadal v Ruud
Looking at the difference in the quality of tennis produced in the two semi's I have to agree with your take here Quill. Just cannot see it going over 3 sets.

Joining on the Nadal 3-0 which my stingy books are offering at 11/10

Nadal v Ruud
When a game looks too easy I go the for the unexpected.
Total Over 33.5

Yup...
Simply amazing.
Watch him and let your jaw drop.

Quill wrote: Nadal vs Ruud

We all know that Nadal is 13-0 in finals at Roland Garros. Not once has he been extended to five sets in a French Open final and six of the 13 have resulted in straight-set beatdowns.

Also, Nadal is very good at playing those clutch moments.

Nadal said:
“So for me, (it) is not a big surprise. Casper is one of the candidates [to win] every clay-court event that he’s playing. He’s one of the clear favorites, no?”

Well, not in this particular match.

I expect a similar match like the women's final yesterday.

Bet 1: Nadal Under 19.5 games @1.95
Bet 2: Under 35.5 games @1.82
Bet 3: Nadal 3-0 @2.20

Perfect finish Quill on both finals. Congrats on Nadal. Think you managed to balance the books on here after some of my disasters. All being well will see you on the grass.