Super Rugby Week 4, 6 Nations Week 4 + other rugby

my best bet is Crusaders -3.5 / i believe it will open @ -8.5 ( mainly cos of the travel )

But with all these cards i am going to focus on points handicaps

The gulf between NZ and other teams to be exposed again this weekend. The mercurial Blues not the yardstick, however I expect them to run the Lions close. Surely the Bulls can put the Reds to the sword? Canes at home but super tough travel schedule. May be a hands in pocket weekend

catsmug wrote: T. Surely the Bulls can put the Reds to the sword?

My thoughts exactly and the 2.30 on offer seems generous ...I have taken some at betway, haven't really shopped around tho...

Caps are out already

Highlanders -14.5 v Stormers
Rebels -2.5 v Brumbies
Hurricanes -1.5 v Crusaders
Reds -2.5 v Bulls
Sharks -17.5 v Sunwolves
Lions -8.5 v Blues
Jaguares +5.5 v Waratahs

I like the Lions one but the one I might take today is the Rebels one after seeing the Brumbies playing last friday

Crusaders at 11/10 looks Golden!
Saders no travel factor and beaten a solid Chiefs team and the Stormers in the opening rounds (This after been notoriously slow starters ...)
Canes have gone SA to Argies back to NZ in 3 weeks, that must effect them!

Then agree on the Rebels -2.5 at 0.93. That is a pearler and I've dived in!

BetX Acca
Saders / Rebels -2.5 / Bulls at 6/1

This is the list of French players involved this week end in "The Crunch" while Top14 is still on

Babillot Mathieu/ Bastareaud Mathieu / Beauxis Lionel / Ben Arous Eddy / Bonneval Hugo / Camara Yacouba / Chat Camille / Chavancy Henry / Couilloud Baptiste / Doumayrou Geoffrey / Fall Benjamin / Fickou Gaël / Gabrillagues Paul / Galletier Kelian / Gomes Sa Cedate / Grosso Rémy / Guirado Guilhem / Lauret Wenceslas /Le Roux Bernard / Machenaud Maxime / Palis Geoffrey / Pélissié Adrien / Poirot Jefferson / Priso Dany / Serin Baptiste / Slimani Rabah / Taofifenua Romain / Tauleigne Marco / Trinh-Duc François / Vahaamahina Sébastien / Vakatawa Virimi

Racing 92 : 8 players / RC Toulon : 5 players / Union Bordeaux-Bègles : 4 players / Montpellier HR : 3 players / AS Clermont Auvergne : 3 players / Stade Rochelais : 2 players / Castres Olympique : 2 players / Lyon OU : 2 players / Stade Toulousain : 1 player / Stade Français Paris : 1 player

Those are the games
MHR vs Racing
Bordeaux vs Oyonnax
Toulon vs Agen
Pau vs La Rochelle
Brive vs Clermont
Stade Francais vs Castres
Toulouse vs Lyon

Early thoughts would be on MHR, Oyonnax Handicap if 2 digits, Over in the Toulon game, Pau, no call on Brive, Castres Handicap if minus, Toulouse

Following you on the Rebels guys
Just read that Marika Koroibete should be back which mean Maddocks could be benched despite a hat trick this week end

Rebels dnb @ 1.68
Rebels -2.5 @1.93

Canes v Saders should be a cracker but Richie Mo'unga out for Saders enough to have me leaning towards Canes, despite travels back from Arg.

Amazed the Crusaders are not at least 5 points favourites, even with Mo'unga out. Crusaders forwards will destroy the Hurricanes forwards. We all know where rugby games are won and lost.

Has anybody else been watching super rugby games recently thinking that there is less unforced errors made in the Girls U8 grade on a Sunday morning?!

I used to be a huge advocate of super rugby being a much better standard than the Northern Hemisphere game, but I'm starting to think that unless it's the Lions or the Crusaders I don't trust any team to win their own set piece or hold onto the ball for 3 phases+ to build pressure without coughing up the pill. Case in point the second favourite Hurricanes, I made a decent profit on them this weekend but it was torture to watch, and don't talk to me about the Blues or the Sharks. The Monday morning re-runs of these games will be painful watching for some boys. Does any team bother practicing lineouts anymore? Some horrific stuff.

Bulls and Crusaders look to be the best value for me this weekend.

Bulls have beaten the canes and pushed the Lions close until they lost their discipline, the reds is a far easier prospect and I expect them to have the quality to get the win, despite the travel. The Reds Brumbies game was a much worse standard.

Very little has impressed me about the Canes, in fact they have been woeful in all but 20 minutes of rugby so far. The crusaders look to be serious contenders for the title again, and despite Mo'unga's injury, I think they have a far stronger set piece and will grind out the win.

Highlanders, Bulls, Lions, Crusaders, Sharks: 6.25/1 (Bet365)

Sharks v Sunwolves

Sharks -17.5 at WSB at 9/10

Sunwolves are +21.5 BetX at 0.93

Which one is right?
Sharks don't look like they could beat a cap of -7.5 at this stage of the season but think they will be roasted in training this week and ideal game to get a win under their belts ... 21.5 seems a bit high!

RuggaBugga wrote: Sharks v Sunwolves

Sharks -17.5 at WSB at 9/10

Sunwolves are +21.5 BetX at 0.93

Which one is right?
Sharks don't look like they could beat a cap of -7.5 at this stage of the season but think they will be roasted in training this week and ideal game to get a win under their belts ... 21.5 seems a bit high!

All depends whether Keegan Daniel plays again. Has been a massive liability in the Sharks team for years.

Mitchell Hunt and Mike Delany are good if not great cover, Hunt had an outstanding 2017 when Mo'unga was out injured in the first half of the season. In my opnion, if it wasnt for him they would have lost more than one game. For example, the Reds away and Higlanders at home. The Hurricanes always turn up against the Crusaders so it 'should' be a fantastic game. Im thinking main bet Crusaders 1-12 @ $2.85. Another good bet could be either team 7 & Under or Draw @ $2.25.

Agreed 100% with Hanrick - called it before the season already, Daniel is not up to Super Rugby standard. Sharks have been caught well short of most SA sides in the entire forward pack and especially looseforward. Missing the Du Preez twins and Coenie big time! The Sunwolves should give them an opportunity to find some much needed confidence and attacking rhythm but tough calling the handicap.

Canes have not impressed me at all. They should improve with the Barrett's getting back in the swing of things but they need a dramatic turn around on home turf to justify their second favourites tag. Forwards also a bit suspect. Julian Savea impressed everyone with that one effort but to me he is well below probably six or 7 other wings in NZ at present. Crusaders will only firm in the betting as the week goes on - as mentioned Hunt was superb last season.

Rebels traveling back but jeez the Brumbies were poor last week. I agree that Rebels on the best minus is the way to go.

I hear everyone on the Bulls but it is a different story playing away from Loftus. I will reserve judgement on the men in blue till after this weekend.

The Jags and Tahs might post a record in this game for poor discipline and shocking moments of madness. Lions and Blues has tries written all over it. Undecided on where to go for the Highlanders v Stormers at this stage.

Happy hunting this week gents! (B)

I know it’s a bit early to punt on games happening in 4 weeks but last night I looked at the calendar in the Top 14 and looking at the fixture in European Challenge, I think the book are over estimating 2 French sides.
Both Brive and Stade Francais qualified for the European Challenge quarter finals (because teams like Toulouse, Sale, Bordeaux,… did not give a damn about this competition) and will be playing away in Newcastle and Pau, 2 teams that lost this year only 1 game for New and none for Pau. I keep in mind that both team are playing for either a semi-final spot or a first qualification for the European Champions Cup but I cannot see the 2 French sides bringing the big guns for those games.
Looking at the French table, both Brive and SF are fighting for relegation and if you add their schedule around that time, that gives :

24 mar : SF vs Toulouse
31 mar : Pau vs SF (Challenge)
07 April : SF vs Clermont

24 mar : Brive vs Agen
31 mar : Newcastle vs Brive (Challenge)
07 April : Oyonnax vs Brive

2 massive game for SF with Toulouse and Clermont home (they will target home game to avoid relegation) while Brive will be playing 2 teams fighting as well for relegation.
Therefore I am going with the biggest punt of the year so far

Newcastle x Pau @ 1.82

I will probably with more bet (handicap and over) later on but wanted to share this one now.
For those with a SB account, the Pau -6 is good as it is -8 everywhere else (I am restricted to 0.01 on SB)

I am leaning on the Sharks -17.5 this weekend

Last year they had that ridiculous 9-9 with the Rebels and the following game everyone wrote them off when they traveled to take on the Jags. Cap was Sharks +8.5 and they ended up winning the game 33-25.
Sharks team are in a serious pickle and will have to bounce back this weekend, they need a convincing victory and think they get it this week. (Although agree on Daniel sentiment)

Last time sides met it was Sunwolves 17 Sharks 38 in Singapore (Sharks were -9 favs on the day)

Last time Sunwolves went from home to SA. Round 15 last season, lost by 40 to the Cheetahs in Round 14 in Tokyo. Went to face the Lions in JHB in Round 15 ... Final Score - Lions 94 Sunwolves 7 (Cap was -38.5 on the day)

Sunwolves caps last year
Away to Bulls - Sunwolves +32.5
Away to Cheetahs - Sunwolves +34.5
Away to Lions - Sunwolves +38.5
Away to Stormers - Sunwolves +35.5

So the -17 is half the average from last year. Think value lies in the -17.5 and that's were I am headed

Despite some shocking individual plays last week, the Sharks will cover the 17 cap with ease against Sunwolves. Wolves lots of injuries, and no squad depth.

All over the Sharks.

Can anyone bet Sharks-17 on SportingBet. Says I am limited to R14.71

RuggaBugga wrote: Can anyone bet Sharks-17 on SportingBet. Says I am limited to R14.71

They've gone to shit. And sponsoring a few comps won't mitigate that.

RuggaBugga wrote: Can anyone bet Sharks-17 on SportingBet. Says I am limited to R14.71

I've got some bad news for you... They have limited you on rugby. Interestingly they limit per sport, not a single limit on all sports. My limit with them on rugby and cricket differs vastly, as an example.

Amazing. Cant wait to see how they treat my next winning voucher on that competition.

Hanrick - I am limited on everything bud. Must be a world record

RuggaBugga wrote: Can anyone bet Sharks-17 on SportingBet. Says I am limited to R14.71

Wow that's bad.

I just placed a relatively big bet on a double of
Sharks - 17 and
Lions to win

RuggaBugga wrote: Can anyone bet Sharks-17 on SportingBet. Says I am limited to R14.71

RuggaBugga wrote: Can anyone bet Sharks-17 on SportingBet. Says I am limited to R14.71

Same here
I m limited to 0.01£ on all sports since I put some money on an under 19.5 tries in the Wasps vs Ulster game
Can’t believe they paid it

bradie82 wrote: Same here
I m limited to 0.01£ on all sports since I put some money on an under 19.5 tries in the Wasps vs Ulster game
Can’t believe they paid it

That was asking for trouble

I didn't do anything like that, had a bumper weekend with SB where the few winners I picked came from their site. Tried to punt last night and limit was R900 which thought was just on that market ... NCAA Basketball game.

Then this morning was capped to R14.71 which did and now my new limit is R0

There response to my anger at being limited ... "You can always bet on our Dream Catcher"
Pathetic from them really ...

RuggaBugga wrote: I didn't do anything like that, had a bumper weekend with SB where the few winners I picked came from their site. Tried to punt last night and limit was R900 which thought was just on that market ... NCAA Basketball game.

Then this morning was capped to R14.71 which did and now my new limit is R0

There response to my anger at being limited ... "You can always bet on our Dream Catcher"
Pathetic from them really ...

that response is SICK !

back to the topic Sharks have moved from -17.5 to -23.5

Got on the -17.5 with WSB and SportsBet.

Looks like I chose the right side

Still the 2nd lowest ever handicap for the Sunwolves as an away team in SA (Lowest was when they faced the Kings in 2016 - Cap was -3 and Kings won by 5)

Average handicap for the Sunwolves excluding that Kings game has been +30!!!

shaft wrote:

bradie82 wrote: Same here
I m limited to 0.01£ on all sports since I put some money on an under 19.5 tries in the Wasps vs Ulster game
Can’t believe they paid it

That was asking for trouble

To be honest I don’t care – SB in the UK became a rubbish bookie to bet on
All alternative handicaps, alternative over points, over point and over tries team disappeared since the new layout/website has been launched
Glad I took some easy money before I left

Not touching the game with a stick but I can imagine the SA boys in the Wolves team will want to turn it on against the first SA opposition they face.

bradie82 wrote:

shaft wrote:

bradie82 wrote: Same here
I m limited to 0.01£ on all sports since I put some money on an under 19.5 tries in the Wasps vs Ulster game
Can’t believe they paid it

That was asking for trouble

To be honest I don’t care – SB in the UK became a rubbish bookie to bet on
All alternative handicaps, alternative over points, over point and over tries team disappeared since the new layout/website has been launched
Glad I took some easy money before I left

oh so they are gone for good ? that is a pity ) also the reward system ? noooo

Stoossy wrote:

bradie82 wrote:

shaft wrote:

bradie82 wrote: Same here
I m limited to 0.01£ on all sports since I put some money on an under 19.5 tries in the Wasps vs Ulster game
Can’t believe they paid it

That was asking for trouble

To be honest I don’t care – SB in the UK became a rubbish bookie to bet on
All alternative handicaps, alternative over points, over point and over tries team disappeared since the new layout/website has been launched
Glad I took some easy money before I left

oh so they are gone for good ? that is a pity ) also the reward system ? noooo

Well in the UK they are gone for good
I did chat few times with the support team and none of the guys could confirm why they ve gone
You have from time to time over tries game but that’s only on few games (Super Rugby) but apart from that, it became a random bookie and there is better on the UK market to bet with.

the more i look at it the more the Bulls win appeals this weekend. Surely this is the game they target in their tour - with Chiefs and Saders away to come, this weekend is a must win. They were badly outplayed on weekend by Lions but physically were strong, and the Reds won't be able to win that battle on Sat.

Word is that Sonny Bill Williams is fit and will play inside Rieko Ioane who will start at 13 against the Lions. Now that is some firepower.

Can they secure enough ball is my only worry, game of the round for sure!

In some 6 Nations news England's Nowell and Underhill out of French game.
Both could have started and sways me to take France 7+. Chuck in Ireland at -10, Scotland poor away from home and Wales at -30, Italy just very poor and you have a nice little accumulator.

In other 6 Nations news, here is the team Wales are likely to announce 12 noon Wednesday:

15. Liam Williams, 14. Steff Evans, 13. Owen Watkin, 12. Hadleigh Parkes, 11. George North, 10. Gareth Anscombe, 9. Gareth Davies, 1. Nicky Smith, 2. Elliot Dee, 3. Tomas Francis, 4. Bradley Davies, 5. Cory Hill, 6. Justin Tipuric, 7. James Davies, 8. Taulupe Faletau

10 changes in all, including new front row and back row (of which both Tipuric and Davies are specialist 7s).
Perhaps will lack a bit of grunt, but not convinced that will matter vs the Italians.
Backed Wales -27 and think this could bolt in, closed roof or not.

Brad Breath wrote: In other 6 Nations news, here is the team Wales are likely to announce 12 noon Wednesday:

15. Liam Williams, 14. Steff Evans, 13. Owen Watkin, 12. Hadleigh Parkes, 11. George North, 10. Gareth Anscombe, 9. Gareth Davies, 1. Nicky Smith, 2. Elliot Dee, 3. Tomas Francis, 4. Bradley Davies, 5. Cory Hill, 6. Justin Tipuric, 7. James Davies, 8. Taulupe Faletau

10 changes in all, including new front row and back row (of which both Tipuric and Davies are specialist 7s).
Perhaps will lack a bit of grunt, but not convinced that will matter vs the Italians.
Backed Wales -27 and think this could bolt in, closed roof or not.

The Scarlets (Wal) v Leinster (Ire) game that was postponed last week will be played this Friday. Anybody with an idea of which team is more affected by International call-ups?

Salop41 wrote: In some 6 Nations news England's Nowell and Underhill out of French game.
Both could have started and sways me to take France 7+. Chuck in Ireland at -10, Scotland poor away from home and Wales at -30, Italy just very poor and you have a nice little accumulator.

Agree with Ireland, not sure about Wales as the team is not as strong as the previous games one and for France, I wish we had a chance against England but the reality is that this French Squad is weak, there is no game plan apart from defending all game long (typical from Laporte who is taking all decisions for Brunel), players are mentally affected by all the mess in the French Rugby and on top of that, England must win with a bonus try point to play a final against Ireland the following week end - my call would go on England Handicap rather than France H.

Hopefully someone @ Sunbet and Hollywoodbets management reads the forum, as no handicaps (and no fixed odds @ Sunbet) @ 11am on a Wednesday is very average bookmaking. Why such a lack of effort?

Would like to see them back up their marketing with more focus on what rugby punters really want - more markets, and early prices.

southpaw wrote: Hopefully someone @ Sunbet and Hollywoodbets management reads the forum, as no handicaps (and no fixed odds @ Sunbet) @ 11am on a Wednesday is very average bookmaking. Why such a lack of effort?

Would like to see them back up their marketing with more focus on what rugby punters really want - more markets, and early prices.

Bookies are scared this week!
Last weekend the Bookie's won the battle but it's payback time this weekend! SportingBet have shortened to 7/10 on Landers -14 so that won't even see my R14.71
Think Stormers in for a long day at the office ...

Referees for this weekends games:

www.planetrugby.com/news/match-officials-to-march-11/

Was hoping Jaco Peyper would take charge of the Jaguares again (Main bet would have been for a yellow/red card - Yes)

Interesting stats on the NZ refs from last year's Mitre10 cup:
www.mitre10cup.co.nz/Stats

Highlanders vs Stormers
@ Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin
Referee: Glen Jackson (New Zealand)
avg points from Mitre10 games 2017, 37-20 in favor of the home team

Hurricanes vs Crusaders
@ Westpac Stadium, Wellington
Referee: Brendon Pickerill (New Zealand)
avg points from Mitre10 games 2017, 42-24 in favor of the home team

Reds vs Bulls
@ Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Referee: Jamie Nutbrown (New Zealand)
avg points from Mitre10 games 2017, 27-23 in favor of the home team

Jaguares vs Waratahs
@ Estadio José Amalfitani Vélez Sarsfield, Buenos Aires
Referee: Mike Fraser (New Zealand)
avg points from Mitre10 games 2017, 34-30 in favor of the home team