Super Rugby Week 5, 6 Nations Week 5 + other rugby
- Brent Graham
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Here are my projected caps:
Chiefs -15.5 v Bulls
Highlanders +2.5 v Crusaders
Brumbies -5.5 v Sharks
Stormers -2.5 v Blues
Lions -33.5 v Sunwolves
Jaguares -5.5 v Reds
Waratahs -5.5 v Rebels
and the final weekend of 6 Nations with Ireland having secured the title (5/2 2nd favs upfront) and just the Grand Slam to play for
Italy +17.5 v Scotland
England -4.5 v Ireland
Wales -7.5 v France
Look forward to your thoughts
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- coil
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Brent Graham wrote: A crazy weekend past for me with the disappointment of missing overs in the Crusaders game made up for by some close shaves going my way including the Bulls over 25.5 points. Overall a decent weekend and already looking ahead to next weekend
Here are my projected caps:
Chiefs -15.5 v Bulls ( -14.5 )
Highlanders +2.5 v Crusaders ( + 3.5 )
Brumbies -5.5 v Sharks ( choice )
Stormers -2.5 v Blues ( -7.5 )
Lions -33.5 v Sunwolves ( -34.5 )
Jaguares -5.5 v Reds ( - 4.5 )
Waratahs -5.5 v Rebels ( - 2.5 )
and the final weekend of 6 Nations with Ireland having secured the title (5/2 2nd favs upfront) and just the Grand Slam to play for
Italy +17.5 v Scotland ( + 16.5 )
England -4.5 v Ireland ( -2.5 )
Wales -7.5 v France ( - 3.5 )
Look forward to your thoughts
Thanks Brent , mine in brackets . Very very close in almost all .
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- Stoossy
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- Brad Breath
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Brent Graham wrote: and the final weekend of 6 Nations with Ireland having secured the title (5/2 2nd favs upfront) and just the Grand Slam to play for
Italy +17.5 v Scotland
England -4.5 v Ireland
Wales -7.5 v France
Look forward to your thoughts
Were the above caps projected by yourself Brent, or had you seen them out? (They've been out for some time).
Irrespective, you've got the Italy and Wales games spot on.
The England v Ireland cap may've been about right up until this weekend, but most books have it a choice game now - Ireland favourites with some.
Betway have Ireland win at 2.00, Ireland +0.5 @ 1.72 and Ireland + 1 @ 1.95.
Can anyone explain this - it makes no sense at all.to me
I fancy the Irish - (unlike England they have a back row and also an attacking game), so have taken some of the +1
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- Brent Graham
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Regards Betway - I can understand a slight price difference between the win and the +0.5 or +1 as the draw is a factor but not the difference between the +1 and +0.5 which are essentially the same - I suspect that they are taking more than one feed for this game perhaps and would be interested to know.
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- mackem
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- mattyc
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i know the Stormers are a different beast at home, but that Blues midfield will run riot vs a defensive disaster in DDA. I can't see a single match up the Stormers will win.
Highlanders have also really impressed with their game speed and an injury hit Saders (No Whitelock, Crotty or Mo'unga) will compete but succumb late on. Fancy the even money currently on offer.
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- mattyc
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- RuggaBugga
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Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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- bradie82
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Chiefs -18.5 v Bulls
Highlanders +1.5 v Crusaders
Brumbies +1.5 v Sharks
Stormers +1.5 v Blues
Lions -33.5 v Sunwolves
Jaguares -5.5 v Reds
Waratahs -2.5 v Rebels
The Brumbies dog at home is the one that draw my attention.
I like the Blues dnb @ 1.85 as well
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- southpaw
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Sharks were poor against Sunwolves overall. But this in a way is a good thing - the side hasn't clicked at all yet, but getting away from the Durban heat and humidity for me is a good thing for rugby they're trying to play.
Sharks win my early pick, hoping for around evens once more bookies price up.
Nothing else really jumping out, but of others i'm leaning:
Jags to cover cap against Reds, who are not good travellers.
Lions to put a basketball score against Sunwolves, if picking strongest team.
Highlanders to edge Saders and like them on the small plus.
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- mackem
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South I do like your thinking on the Sharks, worried about the unenforced handling errors that have plagued them to a degree so far but as you say, getting away from Durban conditions might suit them.
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- bradie82
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They lost Saturday at home against Clermont and are now on 13th position with 1 point only ahead of Oyonnax.
Brive will play Agen (fighting for relegation) before the Challenge and Lyon the following week, both games at home, followed then by a game at Oyonnax and in Stade Francais, 2 teams also fighting to avoid relegation – those are 2 must home game win and 2 away game where Brive will look at bonus point or win. Those 4 games will be critical to stay in the top14 and I cannot see them risking losing key players in the Challenge.
As I said indeed Newcastle is fighting to secure a spot in semi-final of the Aviva with Tigers, Gloucester and Bath not far behind but I cannot see them not playing the Challenge at least 100% and at the same time secure a Champions Cup spot for next season by finishing in one of the 6 spots.
Therefore I am going with the Newcastle handicap as I predict it will end up around 12-13 or even 15 on match day
2.5U Newcastle -8.5 @ 1.90
Took last week already
2.5U Newcastle x Pau @1.82
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- kingalex44
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Ive just looked at the line with GT bets, some exciting games last weekend.
I like the look of the Jaguares covering -6 against the reds with the travel factor huge, Jags impressed me last week against the tahs and I think if they play like that consistently they'll be a tough team to beat at home throughout the season. Blues look good value, I dont think stormers will be able to handle the attacking power of the blues and after two tough NZ games. What do you think is the difference of quality between Aus and SA teams? For example Sharks vs Brumbies. line not out yet but under points will probably be value. If lions take the game seriously it will be brutal for the sunwolvwes and lions would comfortably cover the -32.5. All other lines seem spot on IMO.
Thanks and good luck
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- mackem
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A very tentative 2.5 units Bulls +18.5 points 9/10 widely available
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- mattyc
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- southpaw
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Bets down so far:
Blues win @ 10/11
Sharks win @ 10/11
Not sure odds will get any bigger.
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- Cettas
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www.planetrugby.com/news/match-officials-to-march-18-3/
Heads up
Chiefs vs Bulls
@ Waikato Stadium, Hamilton
Referee: Shuhei Kubo (Japan)
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- mackem
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Scotland -16.5 points 9/10 Sunbet, WSB
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- kingalex44
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- shaft
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kingalex44 wrote: What are your views on singles vs multiple betting?
Stick to singles if you want to make money
"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- Oracle
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shaft wrote:
kingalex44 wrote: What are your views on singles vs multiple betting?
Stick to singles if you want to make money
In my experience singles are the way to go, I do take the odd multi, but seriously getting 7 out of 7 is almost impossible, there are some guys here on goodforthegame who have achieved it. I have gotten 7 wrong before, my success if because of having discipline by rating game by units much like this forum. The problem is like this...imagine you get 5/5 and have two legs to at go and your weakest games are ahead, if you had started with a 50 on, your position is now in the thousands, and quite frankly you would never had, had this much on the weakest of your picks. Then what do you do? Take cover or stand your big bet? I always say your wallet is the best teacher, what works for you may not work for others.
Absolutely never, ever worry about the stuff you cannot control!!
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- hanrick
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Oracle wrote:
shaft wrote:
kingalex44 wrote: What are your views on singles vs multiple betting?
Stick to singles if you want to make money
In my experience singles are the way to go, I do take the odd multi, but seriously getting 7 out of 7 is almost impossible, there are some guys here on goodforthegame who have achieved it. I have gotten 7 wrong before, my success if because of having discipline by rating game by units much like this forum. The problem is like this...imagine you get 5/5 and have two legs to at go and your weakest games are ahead, if you had started with a 50 on, your position is now in the thousands, and quite frankly you would never had, had this much on the weakest of your picks. Then what do you do? Take cover or stand your big bet? I always say your wallet is the best teacher, what works for you may not work for others.
You won't get better advice than this.
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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- RuggaBugga
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My one piece of advice - treat every bet as if it was your last and ask yourself "If this was my last loot in the bankroll, is it worth this punt?"
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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- mackem
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2 units Highlanders win by 1-12 points, 22/10 Sportingbet
Brumbies v Sharks
3 units Sharks win, 9/10 WSB
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- sebokeng
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- southpaw
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1. A serious sized bet where you're taking a host of very short prices but are also picks you have some confidence on, not just picking for sake of a 1/10 shot.
2. A less serious but still thought out punt of prices anywhere from 5/10 to evens to make up something in region of 10/1 and upwards. I'd normally take this eg. on a Saturday where i'm out all day but i'd like some sort of interest in most of the super rugby that day but not a serious investment where i can't actually follow games in full.
Interestingly i can't really say which of 2 is more successful, but punting singles definitely outweighs both combined in terms of my own experience.
I tend to stray from the 'is this was my last loot is it worth a punt' mindset, as quite often hunch or last minute bets pay off. eg. I had a unit on Gellant for 1st try @ 14/1 in Bulls/Reds game last weekend (not posted on forum as was last minute). It definitely wouldn't be a bet if it was my last R500, but it shows to sometimes not always overthink things and occassionally back your gut.
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- mackem
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Chiefs v Bulls Friday Super Rugby
Friday Pro 14, 2 matches
6 Nations Round 5
Super Rugby Saturday, all 5 matches
Tahs v Rebels Sunday Super Rugby
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- sebokeng
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- RuggaBugga
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southpaw wrote: I tend to stray from the 'is this was my last loot is it worth a punt' mindset, as quite often hunch or last minute bets pay off. eg. I had a unit on Gellant for 1st try @ 14/1 in Bulls/Reds game last weekend (not posted on forum as was last minute). It definitely wouldn't be a bet if it was my last R500, but it shows to sometimes not always overthink things and occassionally back your gut.
Point taken, my message is dont waste your bankroll on multiples. They are fun to have for a few pennies but stick to the budge
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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- shaft
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"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- mackem
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England v Ireland (I know Brent likes this one)
4 units Ireland win, evens at BetXchange
Wales v France
2.5 units Wales win 1-12 points inclusive, 15/10 Sportingbet
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- mackem
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2 units half time handicap, Lions -16.5 points 17/20 Sunbet
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- Cettas
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mackem wrote: Lions v Sunwolves preview
2 units half time handicap, Lions -16.5 points 17/20 Sunbet
Interesting call from the lions to play Rohan on the wing
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- southpaw
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RuggaBugga wrote:
southpaw wrote: I tend to stray from the 'is this was my last loot is it worth a punt' mindset, as quite often hunch or last minute bets pay off. eg. I had a unit on Gellant for 1st try @ 14/1 in Bulls/Reds game last weekend (not posted on forum as was last minute). It definitely wouldn't be a bet if it was my last R500, but it shows to sometimes not always overthink things and occassionally back your gut.
Point taken, my message is dont waste your bankroll on multiples. They are fun to have for a few pennies but stick to the budge
sorry RB bud wasn't trying to make a point on that, more so to reflect that oddly some of my bigger wins have been last minute, hunch 1 to 2 unit bets @ double figure odds, whereas i can spend days thinking about a 10 unit play on 1 super rugby game and then still get it wrong!
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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2 units CPUT -10.5
3 units UWC -35.5
twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports
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- The Missing Link
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ThoughtsOnSports wrote: WSB has released their markets for the Varsity Shield today. I fancy UWC and CPUT.
2 units CPUT -10.5
3 units UWC -35.5
Thanks for posting, had already capped the games but just assumed they were being played on Monday. Bit worried that I like all the games pretty strongly but hopefully easy money.
CPUT RHODES - CPUT haven't got many points but barring UWC they've been competitive in each game. Penalties are only 2 points in varsity shield but for some reason they keep going for them and its cost them two games now. Rhodes have been shocking and can see CPUT coming out on top here.
UWC UFH - UWC would beat a number of teams in varsity shield and UFH are worse than previous years. This game is a question of how much and how seriously UWC take the game. They've covered this cap in every game so far and expect them to do the same here. See UWC have picked a full strength team too.
WSU TUT - TUT have been good this season barring getting hammered by UWC on Monday. The game was basically the game for who finished top of the log so UWC were up for it and dispatched them. This game is most likely for second spot on the log and I don't understand how WSU are getting such a big head start. I'm taking the plus here and a very small nibble on TUT to win the game, I don't think its impossible if WSU don't turn up.
Bets
CPUT -10.5 @9/10
UWC -35.5 @9/10
TUT +15.5@evens and small bet on win @6/1
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- mackem
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1.5 units HT/FT Stormers/Blues 11/2 BetOlimp
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- Stark
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- coil
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- azzman
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My play for the weekend, comes to 8750/1500
Bulls +17.5
Blues -1.5
Lions -35.5
All to come....
Jesus is our only saviour
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- mackem
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2.5 units Jaguares to win, 1-12 points 1.75/1 Sportingbet
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- Experienced Novice
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- R3V3R3NT_
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coil wrote: Game one tomorrow looks difficult to call , initially I thought the Chiefs would probably dish out a real hiding , however the Bulls have generally covered a handicap like this against the Chiefs and I'm inclined to lean towards the plus 18.5 Bulls , however they will have to improve on last week's showing where after starting really well against the Reds they offered next to nothing for the rest of the game. I'm also trying not to read too much into John Mitchell and all the hype as I really don't rate him at all.
I was also leaning towards the +18.5 because of a couple of injuries to the chiefs. But what seems to be pretty glaringly obvious is SA and AUS teams are simply not fit enough. I've been burned countless times from last minute tries by NZ teams vs non NZ opposition.
The bulls have shown improvement and I think they will stay close enough most of the game. I think ill play this one +8.5 Bulls HT and look for a low Chiefs minus at half time for the second half.
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- harry_rag
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I'm obviously hoping he beds down quickly, not much Super Rugby form to go on but I think the price may do him a bit of a disservice having had a look at his earlier endeavors. To put it into context, I'd equate this to getting nigh on 5/1 for him to score a try when he's 10/3 best on Oddschecker with all firms bar one going sub 3/1.
A relatively low risk bet that will do for an interest.
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- stokes1982
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Chiefs -12 to beat Bulls
Lions -32 to beat Sunwolves
Jaguars -6 to beat Reds
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- kingalex44
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Thoughts?
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- Taylor
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Small go on First Scoring Play - Bulls Penalty @ 3.75
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- The Missing Link
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harry_rag wrote: One bet for me in the Chiefs v Bulls game; buy Divan Rossouw try minutes at 8 with Spreadex.
I'm obviously hoping he beds down quickly, not much Super Rugby form to go on but I think the price may do him a bit of a disservice having had a look at his earlier endeavors. To put it into context, I'd equate this to getting nigh on 5/1 for him to score a try when he's 10/3 best on Oddschecker with all firms bar one going sub 3/1.
A relatively low risk bet that will do for an interest.
Nice one!
Bulls playing some really good rugby here, very impressed!
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