Super Rugby Week 12, Pro 14 + other Rugby

Have come back slowly , two bets last week which won thankfully and then had to work , glad to see the forum for the most part have been firing.

Chiefs vs jags, tough one on the cap and leaning towards the Jag's who really have come well on their travels , min bet though .

Rebels vs Crusaders , going to go with the Crusaders on the minus and glad there are a number of members in agreement .

Lastly I'll be following the forum on the Scarlets minus , the justification seems quite sound .

I've looked at the SS Challenge lines. If I could I would be all over the Leopards +42.5.

Think this is a massive over reaction to their big loss last week. They have their first choice loosehead, hooker, 5 lock, openside and halfback pairing back. Even the 20/1 outright is a runner in my mind.

bradie82 wrote: Crusaders to score a penalty before 64”0
I know the Crusaders don’t kick that often but still – this is far far too high
Anybody agree on that or am I just too much in love with that type of bet?

Even the Rebels to score a penalty before 33”00 sounds value…

Agree on both counts but would lean more to the Rebels bet.

Thanks Matador and agree with the Rebels being more value
I just checked some statistics and out of 9 games this season, the attempted 3 penalties only and scored only 1 out of those 3
On the other hand, Rebels attempted 21 penalties and scored 12 so will go with that one

Rebels to score a penalty before 33'00 @1.86

bradie82 wrote: Crusaders to score a penalty before 64”0
I know the Crusaders don’t kick that often but still – this is far far too high
Anybody agree on that or am I just too much in love with that type of bet?

Even the Rebels to score a penalty before 33”00 sounds value…

would love to know what backing these penalty before "" markets over a season would look like. I haven't had a go yet, but week in week out when you post one my first gut reaction is "damn that looks far too high" and bookies are getting wrong week in week out. But don't have anything to back that up.

Crusaders -12.5 @ 9/10 with Sunbet. This is great value, line generally 16.5 elsewhere.

Northerner wrote: Slightly off topic, but for any UK based people I’ve got a tip in the Super League (Rugby League) for tonight...

St Helens -24 10/11
St Helens -34 5/2
St Helens -46 8/1

The thinking behind this is pretty simple. St Helens are top of the league, at home, and have won their last two games by 50 and 62, whereas Catalan are abysmal away from home, and lost 41-0 to Castleford recently on the road. Team seem fairly normal... expect a bloodbath!

Beware the big minus....one to keep in mind for the weekend....(was on it with you sadly....anyway we go again tomorrow...)

bradie82 wrote: Rebels to score a penalty before 33'00 @1.86

Adding Jaguares to score a penalty before 30”15 @ 1.86

Same as Rebels - loads of penalty attempts

Liking Jags +14.5 and Chiefs 1-12. Weather looks clear in Rotorua and Retalick will be sitting this game out.


The Question ask here is while the Jags have played well how much will 4 weeks on the road effect their legs in this one?

bradie82 wrote:
Racing v Agen – Agen players have been partying loads since they managed to secure their place in top14 for next season. Racing needs a win, a bonus try if possible but not sure what will be the squad as they’re playing Leinster the following week. Massive blow for them with the injury of Machenaud, the best scrum half in France this season, who will be out until 2019. This game will be played in Vannes, not in the U Arena but if the weather is good, massive over in perspective I reckon.

One thing to add. Oyonnax and Stade Francais might not be able to bring the best squad for the last game. The reason is that in France, you need a minimum of JIFF (players that have been trained in France in an academy for 3 years at least)on average during the season which both team did not respect.
If they don’t bring JIFF players on the last game, the could face a 2 points sanction on next season so this is to be kept in mind.

From Agen's twitter feed and my use of google translate it seems Agen are so happy to be safe for next season they will be sending a team composed of 23 JIFF players.

Has anyone seen a 2nd Half handicap bet at any of the SA bookies? I fancy the Chiefs to finish strong and would love a 2nd Half handicap play on them.

from twitter:

Changes for the Chiefs:
- Cane & Boshier out
- Messam to 6, Jacobson starts at 7 with Sowakula at 8
- Retallick onto the bench in 19 & Parete in 20
- Ngatai to captain the side

main bet = under 57.5 pts @ 17/20

smaller plays =
HT/FT any draw @ 14/1
1st try Montoya 25/1

Just got round to watching the weekends previews for the Super Rugby and i don't think I've come across such confidence in certain selections since using the site!

Ended up sticking a unit on the Chiefs -13 on Bet365. I've made a habit of opposing the Jags but despite not having any money on the game last week against the Blues i feel as though this will be a step too far for them but on the other hand the Chiefs go on their SA tour after this one so i feel as though they'll want to leave NZ with a good performance in the bank. It's a tough one and i feel as though 13 is about right. I've noticed the spread is 15 on William Hill which for me is too much.

What are other people's thoughts?

southpaw wrote: would love to know what backing these penalty before "" markets over a season would look like. I haven't had a go yet, but week in week out when you post one my first gut reaction is "damn that looks far too high" and bookies are getting wrong week in week out. But don't have anything to back that up.

To be honest I think it is quite a decent bet to take over a season.
I only take 1 or 2 per week end despite being available on 90% of the games and I target some teams in particular, especially on the top14 as in France, we love the three point
Toulouse is one of my favourite – Ramos is a decent kicker and Mola is Noves’s son for that – always asking for the three points
On S15, Rebels have 2 decent kickers with Hodge and Debreczeni and if the cut is above 30 min, I tend to take it, depending on the opposition obviously.
A game between 2 South African teams is a game I would target as well as there has been loads of penalties scored in the past (not sure about this season however).
This season has been quite good to be honest – should look since the beginning of the S15 what is the ratio but I m pretty sure I made profit, especially with odds being around 1.8 - 1.9

Chiefs under 36.5 points at 5/6, Chiefs by 1 - 12 at 2/1 and Jaguares +13 5 at even money for me

Looking for a tight first half at least. Under 27.5 points @ 9/10.

Gone Chiefs 13+ @ 1.95

Placed 2 mins before I saw late changes. Cane has been exceptional and Messam isnt a 7.

Jags +7.5 HT cap

bradie82 wrote:

southpaw wrote: would love to know what backing these penalty before "" markets over a season would look like. I haven't had a go yet, but week in week out when you post one my first gut reaction is "damn that looks far too high" and bookies are getting wrong week in week out. But don't have anything to back that up.

To be honest I think it is quite a decent bet to take over a season.
I only take 1 or 2 per week end despite being available on 90% of the games and I target some teams in particular, especially on the top14 as in France, we love the three point
Toulouse is one of my favourite – Ramos is a decent kicker and Mola is Noves’s son for that – always asking for the three points
On S15, Rebels have 2 decent kickers with Hodge and Debreczeni and if the cut is above 30 min, I tend to take it, depending on the opposition obviously.
A game between 2 South African teams is a game I would target as well as there has been loads of penalties scored in the past (not sure about this season however).
This season has been quite good to be honest – should look since the beginning of the S15 what is the ratio but I m pretty sure I made profit, especially with odds being around 1.8 - 1.9

good stuff. I'm going to give it a go this morning -

Jags pen before 28:45
Reb pen before 34

Double @ 5/2

southpaw wrote: good stuff. I'm going to give it a go this morning -

Jags pen before 28:45
Reb pen before 34

Double @ 5/2

bet365?

bradie82 wrote:

southpaw wrote: good stuff. I'm going to give it a go this morning -

Jags pen before 28:45
Reb pen before 34

Double @ 5/2

bet365?

yes

Been raining on and off in Melbourne during the day, but dry currently and might get a passing shower or two during the game at worst. Will still be a little wet underfoot I'd say but should get a good game of rugby. I'm invested on the Saders -13.5 but won't mind a close game either since I'll be at the ground!

Chiefs need a giant kick up the backside they are giving the Jags far too much respect

Been really impressed by Jags in the previous weeks, coaching staff look to have done a really good job

Cricchris wrote: Been really impressed by Jags in the previous weeks, coaching staff look to have done a really good job

They have been mighty impressive. Fair play to them...

This Jags side could really go well the playoffs. They are playing like an international test side against super rugby teams, which is what we all thought they might do when came into the competition years ago but never did.

New coach doing a superb job. Really impressed by them.

Good start to punting weekend, now for the Saders in next.

Lekker @Oracle!

Because of you I backed the Jaguares for this game. (B)

good start to the weekend , have a large bet on the crusaders minus 13.5 , hope conditions don't play a part

Rebels under 21.5 points at 17/20 for me in the next game

hanrick wrote: Rebels under 21.5 points at 17/20 for me in the next game

keen to follow hanrick but heavily involved in crusaders minus

Jags +14.5 comes through easily. Kicking myself for not putting more units but hindsight is the the best site!

southpaw wrote: Crusaders -12.5 @ 9/10 with Sunbet. This is great value, line generally 16.5 elsewhere.

added small interest Taufua 1st try 20/1
and have double from Jags game live onto Rebels pen before 34" @ 5/2

bradie82 wrote:

bradie82 wrote: Rebels to score a penalty before 33'00 @1.86

Adding Jaguares to score a penalty before 30”15 @ 1.86

Same as Rebels - loads of penalty attempts

Books are under estimating the Rebels and the penalties this season which I don’t mind
2 out of 2, waiting for the Aviva cut now

bradie82 wrote:

bradie82 wrote:

bradie82 wrote: Rebels to score a penalty before 33'00 @1.86

Adding Jaguares to score a penalty before 30”15 @ 1.86

Same as Rebels - loads of penalty attempts

Books are under estimating the Rebels and the penalties this season which I don’t mind
2 out of 2, waiting for the Aviva cut now

(B) (B) (B)

southpaw wrote:
good stuff. I'm going to give it a go this morning -

Jags pen before 28:45
Reb pen before 34

Double @ 5/2

Easy money (B)

Some bad luck for crusaders here

I HATE TMO's! Barrett clearly lost that backwards

hanrick wrote: I HATE TMO's! Barrett clearly lost that backwards

it's the arrogant confidence when a TMO gives a crap decision like this that infuriates me.

Saders cap now under massive threat after that shocker.

hanrick wrote: I HATE TMO's! Barrett clearly lost that backwards

Yip , took a wack of crusaders minus 6.5 at ht

Why do we have to put up with pathetic TMO calls every f-ing week?! It's been going on for years and nothing gets done.

Did not post it, but I was on Saders - 6.5 halftime cap and that shocking call cost me my bet.

Ridiculous call from the TMO no idea what he was seeing

5 units saders over 4.5 tries

Can't believe the minus 6.5 HT didn't arrive , now please pull clear

Overs_Punter wrote: 5 units saders over 4.5 tries

An arm chair ride as they say (B)

southpaw wrote:

southpaw wrote: Crusaders -12.5 @ 9/10 with Sunbet. This is great value, line generally 16.5 elsewhere.

added small interest Taufua 1st try 20/1
and have double from Jags game live onto Rebels pen before 34" @ 5/2

didn't even need the value in the end. Great start to weekend.

Saders cap will probably end up being my biggest bet of weekend as i'm just not too strong on anything else, but will look for the forum tips for a few angles.

Roll on Saturday lads.

A decent win but do feel robbed for that ht call , can't wait for tomorrow. (B)

Great morning for you South, well played mate! Nice early call on the Crusaders.

Also, well played on the penalty double! Wish we could get those markets with SA bookies. I know WSB offers it, but I don't regard them as a bookie as they don't want serious punters as clients.

hanrick wrote: Great morning for you South, well played mate! Nice early call on the Crusaders.

Also, well played on the penalty double! Wish we could get those markets with SA bookies. I know WSB offers it, but I don't regard them as a bookie as they don't want serious punters as clients.

cheers Hanrick, good going on Rebels pts!

It would be good if the pen market was more widely offered. It was my first go, credit to Bradie for his regular posting of his pen punts as has been catching my eye all the time.

I'm going to try a strategy this weekend of playing the 'before' market on every game on one side. See how it ends up come tomorrow night.

hanrick wrote: Great morning for you South, well played mate! Nice early call on the Crusaders.

Also, well played on the penalty double! Wish we could get those markets with SA bookies. I know WSB offers it, but I don't regard them as a bookie as they don't want serious punters as clients.

I checked WSB this morning for both games and the only market that they had was "time of first penalty". So they didn't offer it per team which is the one I would have liked and which Bradie and South have clearly enjoyed. would definitely have gotten on board that as well this morning if it was offered.

Seems most on here were largely in the money so well done guys!