Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
- southpaw
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As suspected they are resting most all blacks and this is a great chance for Reds to rough them up a bit.
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- shaft
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Northerner wrote: Points lines for Rebels vs Wolves is out...
Over 60.5 total (looks a bit low to me)
Rebels over 40.5
And Wolves over 19.5 (also a bit low?)
Any thoughts?
I'm with you on Wolves over. Could only get 8/10 but I'm happy with that.
"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- Cettas
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bradie82 wrote: On the Montpellier game tomorrow night, there is still a doubt regarding Couilloud and Michalak and if both are out, that is quite a blow. Will wait for more information before taking anything on that game.
Both Couilloud and Michalak named on the bench
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- Brent Graham
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- bradie82
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Yes I ven seen and I guess thats why the cap moved from 7.5 to 5.5 but the Montpellier team is huge and the MHR @1.5 is becoming more than interestingCettas wrote:
bradie82 wrote: On the Montpellier game tomorrow night, there is still a doubt regarding Couilloud and Michalak and if both are out, that is quite a blow. Will wait for more information before taking anything on that game.
Both Couilloud and Michalak named on the bench
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- coil
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- The Vann
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Canes 1-12 @ 18/10
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- hanrick
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Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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- slaterj
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- sunnyskies
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hanrick wrote: Over 48.5 points for me in the 1st game
I just looked at the road cameras close to the game and the roads are wet. Not sure how this will impact on the game.
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- Stoossy
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sunnyskies wrote:
hanrick wrote: Over 48.5 points for me in the 1st game
I just looked at the road cameras close to the game and the roads are wet. Not sure how this will impact on the game.
lol cant say i have ever done that before
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- sunnyskies
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Stoossy wrote:
sunnyskies wrote:
hanrick wrote: Over 48.5 points for me in the 1st game
I just looked at the road cameras close to the game and the roads are wet. Not sure how this will impact on the game.
lol cant say i have ever done that before
I try and look for every advantage I can get especially with dodgy weather forecasts !!
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- Brad Breath
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Also for interest first try Julian Savea @ 17
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- southpaw
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Saders over 22.5 pts @ 8/11
Saders under 26.5 pts @ 17/20
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- slaterj
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- Taylor
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Saders penalty @4.50
Canes penalty @6.00
Have taken some of each just for value
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- hanrick
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Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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- slaterj
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- The Vann
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southpaw wrote: no real feel for this game so have played for a middle -
Saders over 22.5 pts @ 8/11
Saders under 26.5 pts @ 17/20
True Greatness awaits all South followers (B) (B) (B)
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- Brad Breath
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slaterj wrote: Have the Hurricanes decided to turn up for this game tonight or not? Totally abject performance
Yep awful performance but in fairness the Crusaders B pack impressive, adapted to the conditions much better
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- coil
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southpaw wrote: no real feel for this game so have played for a middle -
Saders over 22.5 pts @ 8/11
Saders under 26.5 pts @ 17/20
Well done South , beautiful when those middles arrive ! On the Wolves plus at 18.5 , missed all the goodies earlier in the week.
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- Brad Breath
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Taylor wrote: First scoring play in 2nd half on B365 I think these are real value
Saders penalty @4.50
Canes penalty @6.00
Have taken some of each just for value
Nice fella! (B) (B)
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- R3V3R3NT_
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slaterj wrote: Have the Hurricanes decided to turn up for this game tonight or not? Totally abject performance
Poor game plan and coaching. Why was Ihia West on the field for a non injury sub? game was gone as soon as he came on. Takes the ball out of your best players hands into your worst.....
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- coil
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R3V3R3NT_ wrote:
slaterj wrote: Have the Hurricanes decided to turn up for this game tonight or not? Totally abject performance
Poor game plan and coaching. Why was Ihia West on the field for a non injury sub? game was gone as soon as he came on. Takes the ball out of your best players hands into your worst.....
Agree , couldn't see any game plan from the Cane's tonight ? Baffling .
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- Brent Graham
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- RuggaBugga
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The Vann wrote:
southpaw wrote: no real feel for this game so have played for a middle -
Saders over 22.5 pts @ 8/11
Saders under 26.5 pts @ 17/20
True Greatness awaits all South followers (B) (B) (B)
Give that man a BELLS, make it a double!
(B) (B) (B)
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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- Ruan Fourie
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- TRYline
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- bradie82
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MHR dnb & over 39.5 @2.50
MHR over 2.5 tries @ 2.25
MHR over 22.5 @ 1.90
Bismark @ 5.50
Nadolo @ 2.62
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- Brent Graham
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Brent Graham wrote: Rebels over 40.5 points
Geez what a disappointment - small profit on the morning and a nice double onto Bulls -8.5 at least
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- harry_rag
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bradie82 wrote: For tonight the more I think about it, the more I can see Montpellier winning that game and expect points
MHR dnb & over 39.5 @2.50
MHR over 2.5 tries @ 2.25
MHR over 22.5 @ 1.90
Bismark @ 5.50
Nadolo @ 2.62
I don't disagree with the view that Montpellier will prevail here but I think that Lyon hotshots are a strong buy at 16 with SX (25 points per Palisson, Regard, Mignot or Arnold try). 20 to buy elsewhere and I make them worth 19 using my "rough and ready" way of evaluating hotshots prices. Acceptable downside for 0 tries and decent upside for 1 or more. I also think that Liam Gill isn't the worst 6/1 anytime shot you'll see and have had a bit on him as well.
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- harry_rag
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Robert at 7/2 and Jean-Luc at 5/1 with stakes split across that and a buy of his try minutes at 8.
All are "price first" picks for me where a look at the players' stats support the decision to get involved.
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- bradie82
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To be honest you re talking Chinese to me right nowharry_rag wrote:
bradie82 wrote: For tonight the more I think about it, the more I can see Montpellier winning that game and expect points
MHR dnb & over 39.5 @2.50
MHR over 2.5 tries @ 2.25
MHR over 22.5 @ 1.90
Bismark @ 5.50
Nadolo @ 2.62
I don't disagree with the view that Montpellier will prevail here but I think that Lyon hotshots are a strong buy at 16 with SX (25 points per Palisson, Regard, Mignot or Arnold try). 20 to buy elsewhere and I make them worth 19 using my "rough and ready" way of evaluating hotshots prices. Acceptable downside for 0 tries and decent upside for 1 or more. I also think that Liam Gill isn't the worst 6/1 anytime shot you'll see and have had a bit on him as well.
Would you please explain me what those hotshots are as i ve been reading you few times but never understood what it meant (B)
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- southpaw
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Later afternoon kick off in Sharks game and i think this could be an open affair, plus have 2 in-form kickers in both line-ups.
Over 55.5 pts @ 17/20 main play
1st try Boffeli 14/1
last try Mapimpi 14/1
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- harry_rag
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bradie82 wrote: To be honest you re talking Chinese to me right now
Would you please explain me what those hotshots are as i ve been reading you few times but never understood what it meant (B)
I often have that effect on people!
Hotshots is a spreadbet based on a group of 4 named players where 25 points is awarded per each try that those players score. Buying Lyon at 16 is at the low risk end of the scale. If I buy for £1 per point I risk losing £16 if they score 0 tries/points. 1 try makes for 25 points so I'd make a 9 point profit, each additional try adds another 25 points to my profit. My best result at a similar price was 7 tries for a total of 175 and a profit of 158 x my stake.
The Jags hotshots are 56 to buy tonight so you'd have to fancy the 4 named players to score 3 or more tries to take the bet. You'd risk 56 times your stake if they scored none and would still lose 6 times stake if they just scored 2.
I like the bet because I'm fairly confident at coming up with my own expected price and the risk is spread across a group of 4 players rather than just being on the shoulders of one. Not sure if that helps but I'll update the outcome of my bet and a buy of the Jags hotshots later by way of illustration.
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- Analyst
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harry_rag wrote:
bradie82 wrote: To be honest you re talking Chinese to me right now
Would you please explain me what those hotshots are as i ve been reading you few times but never understood what it meant (B)
I often have that effect on people!
Hotshots is a spreadbet based on a group of 4 named players where 25 points is awarded per each try that those players score. Buying Lyon at 16 is at the low risk end of the scale. If I buy for £1 per point I risk losing £16 if they score 0 tries/points. 1 try makes for 25 points so I'd make a 9 point profit, each additional try adds another 25 points to my profit. My best result at a similar price was 7 tries for a total of 175 and a profit of 158 x my stake.
The Jags hotshots are 56 to buy tonight so you'd have to fancy the 4 named players to score 3 or more tries to take the bet. You'd risk 56 times your stake if they scored none and would still lose 6 times stake if they just scored 2.
I like the bet because I'm fairly confident at coming up with my own expected price and the risk is spread across a group of 4 players rather than just being on the shoulders of one. Not sure if that helps but I'll update the outcome of my bet and a buy of the Jags hotshots later by way of illustration.
Excellent explanation
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- slaterj
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coil wrote:
R3V3R3NT_ wrote:
slaterj wrote: Have the Hurricanes decided to turn up for this game tonight or not? Totally abject performance
Poor game plan and coaching. Why was Ihia West on the field for a non injury sub? game was gone as soon as he came on. Takes the ball out of your best players hands into your worst.....
Agree , couldn't see any game plan from the Cane's tonight ? Baffling .
I thought the Hurricanes played a stinker. Granted it was fairly nip and tuck in the 1st 40 minutes but it's almost like they came out after the break and just played knowing they were going to get beaten?
Offered absolutely nothing going forward whatsoever. Ben Lam was non existent and they just invited Crusaders pressure and dominance. Sorry but not having anyone telling me it was the "conditions" either. It's hardly like the Hurricanes have never played rugby in poor conditions before. A very strange and curious performance indeed. I'd be looking at the Saders outright for the Title after today's performance
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- bradie82
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That does make sense now and quite interesting - is this only on SX? And can you pick your players or is it done by the bookie?
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- slaterj
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Hurricanes 6/4
Crusaders 7/4
Chiefs 10/1
Lions 11/1
I'd be all over the Crusaders at that price personally
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- harry_rag
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bradie82 wrote: Thanks Harry
That does make sense now and quite interesting - is this only on SX? And can you pick your players or is it done by the bookie?
Both SX (Spreadex) and SPIN (Sporting Index) offer the market and the bookie picks the players. Sometimes it's the same 4 but sometimes there can be 1 or 2 differences. In rugby it's always 4 players per team but for football it's usually just 4 players per match made up of 2 from each team. SX do offer team hotshots of 4 per team but there rarely seems to be a value play. For big games (e.g. tomorrow's CL final) they throw the kitchen sink at it so SPIN will quote 3 player team hotshots (e.g. 31 for Salah, Firmino and Mane) and "coldshots" e.g. 7 for Milner, Wijnaldum and Henderson.
The majority of my bets in these markets are the team hotshots in rugby union or league and the match hotshots in football.
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- coil
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- slaterj
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- Stoossy
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slaterj wrote: Great to see a full house in Argentina this evening. I remember it being like a ghost town in the early rounds
not a single person behind the poles
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- southpaw
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- coil
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- Stoossy
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coil wrote: Awful call of mine here , sharks simply useless, what in heavens was the 14 trying to do , knocking the ball back ( forward `) , bet dead .
not over yet
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- slaterj
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Stoossy wrote:
slaterj wrote: Great to see a full house in Argentina this evening. I remember it being like a ghost town in the early rounds
not a single person behind the poles
They only fill out both sides of the east and west stands it's the same for the Velez games at home in the football
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- southpaw
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Skipping the 1st game, no real feel for that.
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- harry_rag
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To wrap up the Hotshots chat, it was a 16 point loss for me as Lyon's only try came from a "wrong" player.
Despite the higher price, the Jags hotshots would have been a decent buy as they (Moyano, Orlando, Delguy and Boffelli) scored 4 tries between them for a total of 100 points and and a 49 point profit (they were actually as low as 51 to buy when I first looked at that game). That price did look a little low to me but not by a big enough margin to bet. Unfortunately, as it turned out!
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- Brent Graham
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I have often written that errors never seem to go in your favour but against you - imagine my surprise when logging onto Sunbet to find my balance looking a fair bit healthier than expected - it turns out I went under 40.5 Rebels points instead of over - thank goodness they butchered that lineout on the line near the end
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