Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

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5 years 10 months ago #51 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Not sure about this mornings games just yet, but best bet for me this weekend is still Reds +12.5, and Sunbet still offering @ 9/10 which looks value.

As suspected they are resting most all blacks and this is a great chance for Reds to rough them up a bit.

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5 years 10 months ago #52 by shaft
Replied by shaft on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

Northerner wrote: Points lines for Rebels vs Wolves is out...

Over 60.5 total (looks a bit low to me)
Rebels over 40.5
And Wolves over 19.5 (also a bit low?)

Any thoughts?


I'm with you on Wolves over. Could only get 8/10 but I'm happy with that.

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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5 years 10 months ago #53 by Cettas
Replied by Cettas on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

bradie82 wrote: On the Montpellier game tomorrow night, there is still a doubt regarding Couilloud and Michalak and if both are out, that is quite a blow. Will wait for more information before taking anything on that game.


Both Couilloud and Michalak named on the bench

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5 years 10 months ago #54 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Under 50.5 pts in the opener for me (Sunbet) - historically a tight fixture and I believe there is a chance of rain

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5 years 10 months ago #55 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

Cettas wrote:

bradie82 wrote: On the Montpellier game tomorrow night, there is still a doubt regarding Couilloud and Michalak and if both are out, that is quite a blow. Will wait for more information before taking anything on that game.


Both Couilloud and Michalak named on the bench

Yes I ven seen and I guess thats why the cap moved from 7.5 to 5.5 but the Montpellier team is huge and the MHR @1.5 is becoming more than interesting

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5 years 10 months ago #56 by coil
Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Finding this first match a real brain teaser , it really can go either way as the betting suggests and am looking towards the under Crusaders points at 26.5 , historically at home the Crusaders would only have beaten this once out of the last 8 matches in Christchurch.
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5 years 10 months ago #57 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Following the boards on Saders v Canes. Low scoring,close match - must be a 1-12 bet. My "lucky" coin came down on
Canes 1-12 @ 18/10

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5 years 10 months ago #58 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Over 48.5 points for me in the 1st game

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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5 years 10 months ago #59 by slaterj
Replied by slaterj on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Agree with most on here that this game is so difficult to call. My initial thoughts earlier on this week were for the Crusaders but with the notable absentees from their roster i think this does swing it in the Canes favour, but only just.

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5 years 10 months ago #60 by sunnyskies
Replied by sunnyskies on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

hanrick wrote: Over 48.5 points for me in the 1st game


I just looked at the road cameras close to the game and the roads are wet. Not sure how this will impact on the game.
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5 years 10 months ago #61 by Stoossy
Replied by Stoossy on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

sunnyskies wrote:

hanrick wrote: Over 48.5 points for me in the 1st game


I just looked at the road cameras close to the game and the roads are wet. Not sure how this will impact on the game.


lol cant say i have ever done that before

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5 years 10 months ago #62 by sunnyskies
Replied by sunnyskies on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

Stoossy wrote:

sunnyskies wrote:

hanrick wrote: Over 48.5 points for me in the 1st game


I just looked at the road cameras close to the game and the roads are wet. Not sure how this will impact on the game.


lol cant say i have ever done that before


I try and look for every advantage I can get especially with dodgy weather forecasts !!

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5 years 10 months ago #63 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Added Canes 1-12 @ 3.40

Also for interest first try Julian Savea @ 17

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5 years 10 months ago #64 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
no real feel for this game so have played for a middle -

Saders over 22.5 pts @ 8/11
Saders under 26.5 pts @ 17/20

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5 years 10 months ago #65 by slaterj
Replied by slaterj on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
That dreaded Christchurch rain for the overs backers!

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5 years 10 months ago #66 by Taylor
Replied by Taylor on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
First scoring play in 2nd half on B365 I think these are real value

Saders penalty @4.50
Canes penalty @6.00

Have taken some of each just for value

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5 years 10 months ago #67 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Wolves over 20.5 points at 0.96/1

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5 years 10 months ago #68 by slaterj
Replied by slaterj on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Have the Hurricanes decided to turn up for this game tonight or not? Totally abject performance

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5 years 10 months ago #69 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

southpaw wrote: no real feel for this game so have played for a middle -

Saders over 22.5 pts @ 8/11
Saders under 26.5 pts @ 17/20


True Greatness awaits all South followers (B) (B) (B)

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5 years 10 months ago #70 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

slaterj wrote: Have the Hurricanes decided to turn up for this game tonight or not? Totally abject performance


Yep awful performance but in fairness the Crusaders B pack impressive, adapted to the conditions much better
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5 years 10 months ago #71 by coil
Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

southpaw wrote: no real feel for this game so have played for a middle -

Saders over 22.5 pts @ 8/11
Saders under 26.5 pts @ 17/20


Well done South , beautiful when those middles arrive ! On the Wolves plus at 18.5 , missed all the goodies earlier in the week.

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5 years 10 months ago #72 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

Taylor wrote: First scoring play in 2nd half on B365 I think these are real value

Saders penalty @4.50
Canes penalty @6.00

Have taken some of each just for value


Nice fella! (B) (B)

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5 years 10 months ago #73 by R3V3R3NT_
Replied by R3V3R3NT_ on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

slaterj wrote: Have the Hurricanes decided to turn up for this game tonight or not? Totally abject performance


Poor game plan and coaching. Why was Ihia West on the field for a non injury sub? game was gone as soon as he came on. Takes the ball out of your best players hands into your worst.....

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5 years 10 months ago #74 by coil
Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

R3V3R3NT_ wrote:

slaterj wrote: Have the Hurricanes decided to turn up for this game tonight or not? Totally abject performance


Poor game plan and coaching. Why was Ihia West on the field for a non injury sub? game was gone as soon as he came on. Takes the ball out of your best players hands into your worst.....


Agree , couldn't see any game plan from the Cane's tonight ? Baffling .

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5 years 10 months ago #75 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Rebels over 40.5 points

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5 years 10 months ago #76 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

The Vann wrote:

southpaw wrote: no real feel for this game so have played for a middle -

Saders over 22.5 pts @ 8/11
Saders under 26.5 pts @ 17/20


True Greatness awaits all South followers (B) (B) (B)


Give that man a BELLS, make it a double!
(B) (B) (B)

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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5 years 10 months ago #77 by Ruan Fourie
Replied by Ruan Fourie on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Small bet on Sunwolves + 9.5 HT.

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5 years 10 months ago #78 by TRYline
Replied by TRYline on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
those low scoring 2nd halves make me kinda tired.

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5 years 10 months ago #79 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
For tonight the more I think about it, the more I can see Montpellier winning that game and expect points

MHR dnb & over 39.5 @2.50
MHR over 2.5 tries @ 2.25
MHR over 22.5 @ 1.90
Bismark @ 5.50
Nadolo @ 2.62
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5 years 10 months ago #80 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

Brent Graham wrote: Rebels over 40.5 points


Geez what a disappointment - small profit on the morning and a nice double onto Bulls -8.5 at least

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5 years 10 months ago #81 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

bradie82 wrote: For tonight the more I think about it, the more I can see Montpellier winning that game and expect points

MHR dnb & over 39.5 @2.50
MHR over 2.5 tries @ 2.25
MHR over 22.5 @ 1.90
Bismark @ 5.50
Nadolo @ 2.62


I don't disagree with the view that Montpellier will prevail here but I think that Lyon hotshots are a strong buy at 16 with SX (25 points per Palisson, Regard, Mignot or Arnold try). 20 to buy elsewhere and I make them worth 19 using my "rough and ready" way of evaluating hotshots prices. Acceptable downside for 0 tries and decent upside for 1 or more. I also think that Liam Gill isn't the worst 6/1 anytime shot you'll see and have had a bit on him as well.
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5 years 10 months ago #82 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
4 players catch my eye in the Jaguares v Sharks game; Delguy at even money and Orlando at 10/3 for the Jags (the latter quickly trimmed to 9/4 unfortunately). For the Sharks I've got my eyes on du Preez if you'll forgive the woeful pun! :blush:

Robert at 7/2 and Jean-Luc at 5/1 with stakes split across that and a buy of his try minutes at 8.

All are "price first" picks for me where a look at the players' stats support the decision to get involved.

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5 years 10 months ago #83 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

harry_rag wrote:

bradie82 wrote: For tonight the more I think about it, the more I can see Montpellier winning that game and expect points

MHR dnb & over 39.5 @2.50
MHR over 2.5 tries @ 2.25
MHR over 22.5 @ 1.90
Bismark @ 5.50
Nadolo @ 2.62


I don't disagree with the view that Montpellier will prevail here but I think that Lyon hotshots are a strong buy at 16 with SX (25 points per Palisson, Regard, Mignot or Arnold try). 20 to buy elsewhere and I make them worth 19 using my "rough and ready" way of evaluating hotshots prices. Acceptable downside for 0 tries and decent upside for 1 or more. I also think that Liam Gill isn't the worst 6/1 anytime shot you'll see and have had a bit on him as well.

To be honest you re talking Chinese to me right now :lol:
Would you please explain me what those hotshots are as i ve been reading you few times but never understood what it meant (B)

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5 years 10 months ago #84 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Good start today on the middle, only watched last 10 min and was praying no more score.

Later afternoon kick off in Sharks game and i think this could be an open affair, plus have 2 in-form kickers in both line-ups.

Over 55.5 pts @ 17/20 main play
1st try Boffeli 14/1
last try Mapimpi 14/1

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5 years 10 months ago #85 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

bradie82 wrote: To be honest you re talking Chinese to me right now :lol:
Would you please explain me what those hotshots are as i ve been reading you few times but never understood what it meant (B)


I often have that effect on people! :lol:

Hotshots is a spreadbet based on a group of 4 named players where 25 points is awarded per each try that those players score. Buying Lyon at 16 is at the low risk end of the scale. If I buy for £1 per point I risk losing £16 if they score 0 tries/points. 1 try makes for 25 points so I'd make a 9 point profit, each additional try adds another 25 points to my profit. My best result at a similar price was 7 tries for a total of 175 and a profit of 158 x my stake.

The Jags hotshots are 56 to buy tonight so you'd have to fancy the 4 named players to score 3 or more tries to take the bet. You'd risk 56 times your stake if they scored none and would still lose 6 times stake if they just scored 2.

I like the bet because I'm fairly confident at coming up with my own expected price and the risk is spread across a group of 4 players rather than just being on the shoulders of one. Not sure if that helps but I'll update the outcome of my bet and a buy of the Jags hotshots later by way of illustration.
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5 years 10 months ago #86 by Analyst
Replied by Analyst on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

harry_rag wrote:

bradie82 wrote: To be honest you re talking Chinese to me right now :lol:
Would you please explain me what those hotshots are as i ve been reading you few times but never understood what it meant (B)


I often have that effect on people! :lol:

Hotshots is a spreadbet based on a group of 4 named players where 25 points is awarded per each try that those players score. Buying Lyon at 16 is at the low risk end of the scale. If I buy for £1 per point I risk losing £16 if they score 0 tries/points. 1 try makes for 25 points so I'd make a 9 point profit, each additional try adds another 25 points to my profit. My best result at a similar price was 7 tries for a total of 175 and a profit of 158 x my stake.

The Jags hotshots are 56 to buy tonight so you'd have to fancy the 4 named players to score 3 or more tries to take the bet. You'd risk 56 times your stake if they scored none and would still lose 6 times stake if they just scored 2.

I like the bet because I'm fairly confident at coming up with my own expected price and the risk is spread across a group of 4 players rather than just being on the shoulders of one. Not sure if that helps but I'll update the outcome of my bet and a buy of the Jags hotshots later by way of illustration.


Excellent explanation
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5 years 10 months ago - 5 years 10 months ago #87 by slaterj
Replied by slaterj on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

coil wrote:

R3V3R3NT_ wrote:

slaterj wrote: Have the Hurricanes decided to turn up for this game tonight or not? Totally abject performance


Poor game plan and coaching. Why was Ihia West on the field for a non injury sub? game was gone as soon as he came on. Takes the ball out of your best players hands into your worst.....


Agree , couldn't see any game plan from the Cane's tonight ? Baffling .


I thought the Hurricanes played a stinker. Granted it was fairly nip and tuck in the 1st 40 minutes but it's almost like they came out after the break and just played knowing they were going to get beaten?

Offered absolutely nothing going forward whatsoever. Ben Lam was non existent and they just invited Crusaders pressure and dominance. Sorry but not having anyone telling me it was the "conditions" either. It's hardly like the Hurricanes have never played rugby in poor conditions before. A very strange and curious performance indeed. I'd be looking at the Saders outright for the Title after today's performance
Last edit: 5 years 10 months ago by slaterj.

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5 years 10 months ago #88 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Thanks Harry
That does make sense now and quite interesting - is this only on SX? And can you pick your players or is it done by the bookie?

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5 years 10 months ago #89 by slaterj
Replied by slaterj on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Just checked the outrights now on bet365:

Hurricanes 6/4
Crusaders 7/4
Chiefs 10/1
Lions 11/1


I'd be all over the Crusaders at that price personally

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5 years 10 months ago #90 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

bradie82 wrote: Thanks Harry
That does make sense now and quite interesting - is this only on SX? And can you pick your players or is it done by the bookie?


Both SX (Spreadex) and SPIN (Sporting Index) offer the market and the bookie picks the players. Sometimes it's the same 4 but sometimes there can be 1 or 2 differences. In rugby it's always 4 players per team but for football it's usually just 4 players per match made up of 2 from each team. SX do offer team hotshots of 4 per team but there rarely seems to be a value play. For big games (e.g. tomorrow's CL final) they throw the kitchen sink at it so SPIN will quote 3 player team hotshots (e.g. 31 for Salah, Firmino and Mane) and "coldshots" e.g. 7 for Milner, Wijnaldum and Henderson.

The majority of my bets in these markets are the team hotshots in rugby union or league and the match hotshots in football.

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5 years 10 months ago #91 by coil
Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Going against the grain here but really like the sharks on the plus 6.5 , think they'll trade blow for blow and also hoping for a possible Jag wobble.
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5 years 10 months ago #92 by slaterj
Replied by slaterj on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Great to see a full house in Argentina this evening. I remember it being like a ghost town in the early rounds

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5 years 10 months ago #93 by Stoossy
Replied by Stoossy on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

slaterj wrote: Great to see a full house in Argentina this evening. I remember it being like a ghost town in the early rounds


not a single person behind the poles

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5 years 10 months ago #94 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Absolute crapfest this game.

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5 years 10 months ago #95 by coil
Replied by coil on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Awful call of mine here , sharks simply useless, what in heavens was the 14 trying to do , knocking the ball back ( forward `) , bet dead .

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5 years 10 months ago #96 by Stoossy
Replied by Stoossy on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

coil wrote: Awful call of mine here , sharks simply useless, what in heavens was the 14 trying to do , knocking the ball back ( forward `) , bet dead .


not over yet
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5 years 10 months ago - 5 years 10 months ago #97 by slaterj
Replied by slaterj on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga

Stoossy wrote:

slaterj wrote: Great to see a full house in Argentina this evening. I remember it being like a ghost town in the early rounds


not a single person behind the poles


They only fill out both sides of the east and west stands it's the same for the Velez games at home in the football
Last edit: 5 years 10 months ago by slaterj.

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5 years 10 months ago #98 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
Bad result there but still ahead. All that could change tomorrow depending on reds game, quite heavily invested in the +12.5.

Skipping the 1st game, no real feel for that.

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5 years 10 months ago #99 by harry_rag
Replied by harry_rag on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
A night where I'd have been better not bothering, with just a Delguy try at evens to show for my bets.

To wrap up the Hotshots chat, it was a 16 point loss for me as Lyon's only try came from a "wrong" player.

Despite the higher price, the Jags hotshots would have been a decent buy as they (Moyano, Orlando, Delguy and Boffelli) scored 4 tries between them for a total of 100 points and and a 49 point profit (they were actually as low as 51 to buy when I first looked at that game). That price did look a little low to me but not by a big enough margin to bet. Unfortunately, as it turned out!

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5 years 10 months ago #100 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 15 and other Rugga
This one I have to share

I have often written that errors never seem to go in your favour but against you - imagine my surprise when logging onto Sunbet to find my balance looking a fair bit healthier than expected - it turns out I went under 40.5 Rebels points instead of over - thank goodness they butchered that lineout on the line near the end

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