Tour de France 2018
- mackem
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Before we get into the betting, a bit of fun with the Fantasy Competition, free to enter and no prizes whatsoever other than the all important bragging rights if you pick the right riders / teams for stages divided into rounds.
For anyone new to the competition read the rules carefully or even ask on here ...
Register or login at this website address:
cycling.udt.co.za
Then head for this league or code ...
League Name: Goodforthegame
League-Code: 18959529806189
Bring it on ....!!
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- Couch Critic
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Twitter: @HDiemont
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- mackem
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Pressure on you to retain the GFTG jersey now though
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- mackem
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www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...-stage-profiles.html
Haven't studied teams yet
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- Couch Critic
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mackem wrote: Lol, too true Couch, I seem to recall I ran out of steam in the final week and refused to see Barguill as a factor. Then a year earlier BG was in line to win overall until Kittel punctured on the Champs
Pressure on you to retain the GFTG jersey now though
I've been practicing at altitude and the output stats look good. So now it's just a case of seeing whether training camp form transfers to the real deal - you blokes better be ready as I don't want any doping excuses post the event (your honour I pose to you that wine is not a performance enhancer!)
See you guys on the starting line. I can't wait for Le Tour and hopefully making some cash.
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- The Vann
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"Field excluding Couch"
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- mackem
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Will have a look at the outright markets over next couple of days
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- Brent Graham
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- goosoi
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Winner: Yates & Bardet
Top3: Roglic
Points: Gaviria
Polka: Majka
Youth: Soler
Stage 1: Cav
Win 1 Stage: GVA and Gilbert
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- The Vann
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Lets remind ourselves of the 2017 Tour. Froome built up an early lead and, except for AG2R who did try and challenge, Sky were left to control the race. During the last week Froome was not the best climber but he hung on to a lead of less then 30 seconds prior to the second last stage - the ITT - where he managed to extend it to nearly a minute.
The Favourites
This year there will be no respect for Sky, in fact it will be open season for the entire peleton. The controversy has to have affected Froome, who has the Giro in his legs, and I think he can expect far worse abuse from the public in the TdF. The previous Spitting and Pee showers could escalate into the Merckx type abuse of 1975. With powers waning and no respect from the peleton I believe Froome has very little chance of winning this year.
Richie Porte has raced in who knows how many Grand Tours and never podiumed. Always a bad day or a mechanical.
Movistar have picked a very badly balanced side. They only have Rojas and Bennatti to keep them safe on the flat stages. I have seen the tour lost before reaching the first mountains and this could quite easily happen to this squad.
Dumoulin also raced the Giro, Nibali has shown nothing since his early season win in Milan San Remo.
I think this tour could throw up some surprises in the GC
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- The Vann
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Yellow Jersey
Hopefully team can keep him in contention on the flats
Win Quintana @ 8/1 1.0 units
Top 3
Bardet @ 11/4 3.0 units
Yates @ 19/4 1.0 units
Green Jersey
Top 3 Demare @ 51/20 1.5 units
Polka Dot Jersey
Top 3 Vuillermoz @ 40/1 1.0 units
White Jersey
Favour Latour but 2/1 a bit skinny so going for a H2H
Tolhoek over Martinez @ 2/1 1.5 units
Top Team
AG2R @ 9/1 1.0 units
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- The Vann
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Froome to finish top 3 - No @ 27/20 A few beers
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- The Vann
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The first 9 stages carry 3/2/1 sec at the interim sprint points and 10/6/4 seconds on the line. We start with two flat stages and, if not won by same sprinter, the yellow should change hands. Stage 3 is the TTT where one of the baroudeurs are normally allowed over the line first. Then we have stage 6 up the Mur-de-Bretagne where the yellow will change hands again. Stage 9 is the cobbles where we could see a new leader. That makes 5 yellow jersey owners in the first week.
WSB have a market - Number of riders to wear yellow.
The over 5.5 @ 5/6 looks tasty to me
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- mackem
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Start list is here www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...2018-start-list.html
Some outright thoughts on the GC here www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...ication-preview.html
With Green Jersey Sagan looks short at 9/20 but I wouldn't know who, if anyone, to take him on with right now. KoM can wait for later in week 1 / start of week 2 for me
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- mackem
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www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...stage-1-preview.html
Dylan Groenewegen for me though would expect to find bigger than 2/1
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- The Vann
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Nevertheless - At great cost to myself ( A dinner at the larniest place in town including a bottle of Dom ) I asked the missus to peruse the odds on the TdF markets where the left hand figure is bigger then the right hand figure ie odds against.
I got - AG2R were the only team to challenge Sky last year/probably his best chance at the white jersey/he is the French ITT champion/he will keep riding after supporting Bardet looking for the white jersey.
Top 10
Latour @ 5/1
(Another monetary sacrifice by The Vann for GFTG)
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- Couch Critic
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I hear the argument AGAINST Froome but I have a feeling people don't want him to win (me neither) rather than his actual chances not being that great and here's why:
1. Team Sky.
No one is at their level. Ag2R dont have the mountain goats to support Bardet. Caruso will help Porte but TJ is not my idea of the ideal mountain domestique. Movistar would be great if Valverde & Landa would work themselves into the grouns for Nairo - they wont.
2. Giro effect not that big.
No one has been able to handle the double in recent history. Yet this year there is an extra week gap. More importantly Froome was clearly way under cooked for the Giro and thus will probably only peak in the Tour. Yes the last mountain stage or two might start to hurt but he has the ITT to recover the seconds he loses to NQ, Nibali or Bardet.
3. Hostile crowds and other teams
Yes fans will be hostile but I reckon there is a bit of African attitude (or is it the Pom in him) that comes out when the odds are against him. Every year at Grand Tours you think the big dog will come under pressure from a host of teams but in the end they are all too cautious to risk it all and/or work together in any way shape or form.
4. He WANTS IT
This is about his legaxy. (Or he believes this in his own mind). He wants to pull off the double. He is already the reighning champ in all 3. He has 4 TdF titles. He is The Man. But he wants cycling immortality - he wants the double.
Froome is taking this one gents and I will only look for a podium play, Top10 and Mountain play pre race.
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- The Vann
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Stage 1
Taking Gaviria @ 25/10
( Wish Mackem would get the emoticons back on the site for us who operate off PC's because this would have a smiley attached.
@ Couch. My long departed mother always used to say - Son It's not the wanting that's a problem - It's the getting )
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Top 3: Quintana @ 15/10
Solid as they come. There are a few humps in the ITT so he wont suffer too badly. He was a shadow of himself last year when attempting the double but will look to set the record straight this year. Yes it is short but I feel the Colombian will come on strong in week 3.
Top 10:
Following Vann on Latour here. He will help Bardet to the very end and on the big stages still take time on many.
Mountains:
I see three options in this market. Firstly the Thomas de Gent rider who targets this prize from the start and tries to gobble points from the start. Then you get the GC guy who wins it without even trying (think Froome in the Giro). Lastly you have a lad who wants to target a top10 but has some misfortune and then shifts his focus.
This third market is quite often my favourite but bookies are quite fast on the uptake as well so often value disappears very quickly, it is also impossible to pick this third category beforehand.
Quintana @12 - needs to take a decent amount of time in the mountains.
Bardet top 3 @ 7/1 - same as above
Marting Guillaume @ 50/1
Going green:
I am a huge Sagan fan so tough to ever go against him in this market but this year might just be the chance with loads of proper sprinters and I feel less punchy stages as well. Then again the competition between the pure sprinters could also play in his favour.
Instead of dabbling in this market I will take Groenewegen to win 2 or more stages @ evens with Sunbet
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- mackem
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Stage 2, brief heads up here goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de-fra...stage-2-preview.html
Sticking with Groenewegen at around 33/10
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- Brent Graham
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The Vann wrote: To the C for serious punters who bet large amounts on odds on here's a thought.
The first 9 stages carry 3/2/1 sec at the interim sprint points and 10/6/4 seconds on the line. We start with two flat stages and, if not won by same sprinter, the yellow should change hands. Stage 3 is the TTT where one of the baroudeurs are normally allowed over the line first. Then we have stage 6 up the Mur-de-Bretagne where the yellow will change hands again. Stage 9 is the cobbles where we could see a new leader. That makes 5 yellow jersey owners in the first week.
WSB have a market - Number of riders to wear yellow.
The over 5.5 @ 5/6 looks tasty to me
I am already regretting not following this one - hoping someone prices it up but not hopeful
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- Brent Graham
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Will track in units and to date my only bet is 8 units Roglic/Dumolin at 11/10 Betx
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- Brent Graham
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Demare 5/6 to beat Kittel in points classification - 5 units at Betx
Also got small outright interests at Sunbet
0.5 units Fugslang 17/1, Roglic 20/1 and Valverde 30/1
Inv: 13.5
Pending: 13.5
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- Brent Graham
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GaviriaKittel at 5/10
Inv - 18.5
Pend 18.5
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- The Vann
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Stage 2
Gaviria @ 15/10
Nielsen over Colbrelli @ 15/10
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- southpaw
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- southpaw
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- Brent Graham
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I think they start 5/10
Turns out I only had 4 units not 5 on Gavria/Kittel double which arrived but could have gone either way due to Gavaria crash coming after a Kittel puncture
Inv 24.5 u
Pending 20.5 u
Banked 6 u
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- mackem
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- southpaw
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Do the TDF guru's think he's one to stick with for the next sprint stage? Seems like he could be decent e/w bet for sprint finishes.
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- mackem
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- Couch Critic
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And yesterday's heroes (Greipel and Cav) will surely steal a podium on one or 2 stages. Then there are a few "floaters" like Kristoff, Colbrelli, Degenkolb and Laporte who don't have that top speeds but will continue to lurk.
Another problem with having this many contenders is that unless a guy is really going for the green jersey the top end sprinters might give up the ghost as soon as they see a particular sprint just isn't going their way (instead of fighting to try and salvage a third place).
So for mind there is little value on a specific sprinter taking a podium South, unless you can really get a worthwhile price and have a good reason to expect a fiery effort from you charger.
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- The Vann
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southpaw wrote: I didn't know too much about him before but really impressed by Demare's ride to just lose out yesterday after puncture. Had covered on 18/10 top 3 in running so small profit.
Do the TDF guru's think he's one to stick with for the next sprint stage? Seems like he could be decent e/w bet for sprint finishes.
Demare has spent the last two years improving his form over climbs. His specific career target is the green jersey in the tour. He does not have the top end of Gaviria, Kittel or Groenewegen but he will get to finishes that they won't and he can match any of the other sprinters. He just does not read a finish as well as Sagan. He will contest all the interim sprints and something like stage 5 will suit him.
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- The Vann
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I have taken a chunk of the 16/10 top 3 offer on Porte and for today going with
Stage 3
Two teams who will just coast around the course so should be evens
Dimension Data over FDJ @ 13/10
and a match bet
Cofidis over Fortuneo into UAE over Wanty @ 43/20
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- Brent Graham
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Inv 24.5 u
Pending 15.5 u
Banked 6 u
P/L -3u
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- mackem
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Matthews to beat Kristoff at 2/1 a speculative play for me
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- Brent Graham
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Just a 0.5 unit play on Groenewegen for me today
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- The Vann
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Based on who was finishing fastest on stage 1 I am going for
Kittel @ 4/1
and I have difficulty leaving bets which should be 9/10 choice so a few beers on
Froome over Dumoulin @ 12/10
Quintana over Porte @ 15/10
Hopefully make one for a small profit
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- Couch Critic
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Kittel over Sagan @ 9/10
Demare over Colbrelli onto Gaviria over Sagan @ 11/10
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- Brent Graham
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Left Greipel out my Fantasy Team - big error
Inv 25 u
Pending 15.5 u
Banked 6 u
P/L -3.5u
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- mackem
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www.goodforthegame.co.za/Cycling/tour-de...stage-5-preview.html
From a short list of about 25 I've gone with Alaphilippe at 14/1
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- Couch Critic
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Finally a bit of a tougher stage to sink my teeth into. Of course the problem is that there are a number of contenders. You might think it's between Sagan, GVA, Matthews and Ala P but then the break stays away or a select break steals it with a late move.
So...
Calmejane for the break @ 110/1
Tiesj Benoot for the late move @ 200/1
Magnus Cort Nielsen for select sprint @ 34/1
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- The Vann
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Profile shows last 800m at 5% but this does not help. If its steady then Sagan etc are favourites but if there is a 100m or so at 8% then Valverde/Martin/Alaphilippe come into play. I'm going for a few match bets and will listen if Robbie McEwen has ridden the finish and pick an outright in play.
Quintana over Porte @ 11/10 (Worked yesterday )
Alaphilippe over Valverde @ 21/20
and a double
Demare over Gaviria into Dumoulin over Jungels @ 3/1
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- kt6747
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Calemanje @ 66/1 (Followed CC)
Nibali @ 150/1 - Has quite a sprint uphill and may want to get some time on other GC contenders.
Gone with the following acc:
Alaphillipe / Valverde
Boassen Hagen / Keukeleire
Nibali / Froome
Works out to about 58/10
Hopefully a good watch this afternoon.
Enjoy
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- Couch Critic
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Like the look of Ala P over Valverde and will have a go at the following other matches:
EBH over Keukeleire onto Yates over Uran @ 14/10
Demare over Gaviria onto Bardet over Mollema @ 2/1
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- The Vann
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Couch Critic wrote: Okay so my TdF starts today (especially the betting side of it).
Finally a bit of a tougher stage to sink my teeth into. Of course the problem is that there are a number of contenders. You might think it's between Sagan, GVA, Matthews and Ala P but then the break stays away or a select break steals it with a late move.
So...
Calmejane for the break @ 110/1
Tiesj Benoot for the late move @ 200/1
Magnus Cort Nielsen for select sprint @ 34/1
Quick heads up Couch - Benoot won't start today after yesterday's crash
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- mackem
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