Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby

Just giving you a nudge, Brent, the title says week 18...

just a heads up for any Chiefs backers - Damian McKenzie has to be rested this week as part of All Blacks rules, while Sam Cane also likely out.

I've got a feeling that the Brumbies will beat the Waratahs this weekend.

Brent Graham wrote:

southpaw wrote: just a heads up for any Chiefs backers - Damian McKenzie has to be rested this week as part of All Blacks rules, while Sam Cane also likely out.

Looks like I jumped the gun,Just got to hope for the best I guess

Looks like you might get Brodie back for the game

Still a bit to play for, for some teams this weekend

Highlanders v Rebels (If Rebels win they qualify for the playoffs)

Waratahs v Brumbies (Waratahs win would make sure of second placed overall finish)

Lions v Bulls (Lions win will win the conference, second place overall theirs if Waratahs lose)

Sharks v Jaguares (Sharks make it if they win and Rebels lose, Jaguares top if they win and Lions lose)

Other fixtures final weekend

Chiefs v Hurricanes (both teams qualified for playoffs already)

Reds v Sunwolves (nothing on the game between two cellar dwellers)

Crusaders v Blues (Crusaders already assured of top, nothing on the game)

Hi guys! I've been on an extended betting break due to horrible form. Hoping to get back in the game soon.

I've written off my "Sharks to qualify" longterm bet more times than I can remember this season, but the article below has given me some hope again. Makes sense from the Jaguares perspective.

www.supersport.com/rugby/super-rugby/new...guares_second_string

Excellent Hanrick, when I saw your post I thought to myself haven't seen your name in a while - I also took a break after the last Super Rugby round before the break and headed to Russia for the World Cup - started getting back into things with some tennis.

Also think the Sharks will sneak into the last 8 - can't see the Highlanders lose at home and with the Bulls' injury concerns (Pollard, Jenkins etc) the Lions should pull through.

The only worry I have is that the Sharks haven't played well when they were the favourites, or against a weakened team - I think back to Waratahs draw, Rebels loss, thumping by the Bulls at home, squeaking it against the Chiefs, and they really should have done better last week.

Team news may end up moving the lines so perhaps taking the 7/10 now is the safe play.

Some fascinating games/scenarios to play out this weekend.

Re the Landers v Rebels

Looks as if the Landers will be missing a few, including All Blacks Ben Smith, Naholo, Aaron Smith and Luke Whitelock.

i.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/super-rugby/10...-remainder-of-season

I've taken some of the Rebels +14, which has dropped to +11 with some books.

I'm taking a biggish gamble on permutations of Highlanders winning and therefore Jags not having anything to play for, Sharks then everything to play for, Jags could do with resting a few players who all played in their June tests as well.

10 units Sharks win @ 4/6 (Hollywood).

Here's a theory... If Waratahs beat Brumbies they end 2nd and Lions then end 3rd if they beat the Bulls. If Highlanders beat the Rebels they end 6th and if they lose they end 7th. 2nd place play 7th place and 3rd place play 6th place in the QF's. Surely the Highlanders would prefer a trip to Sydney over a trip to Johannesburg. I can see them throwing the game. Would kill the Sharks to qualify bet off for good.

hanrick wrote: Here's a theory... If Waratahs beat Brumbies they end 2nd and Lions then end 3rd if they beat the Bulls. If Highlanders beat the Rebels they end 6th and if they lose they end 7th. 2nd place play 7th place and 3rd place play 6th place in the QF's. Surely the Highlanders would prefer a trip to Sydney over a trip to Johannesburg. I can see them throwing the game. Would kill the Sharks to qualify bet off for good.

Interesting

Add to that scenario that the jaguares still loose to the sharks then the Highlanders still play the lions in jhb even after throwing the game, that would suck for them

Cannot see Highlanders thinking about the travel factor and permutations too much. Fact is they have lost last 2 games and need to get back into some sort of winning form for confidence.

spoke too soon, Smith x2 rested. Doesn't look a great backline, although forwards decent enough. Rebels cap must have come in a fair bit on this news. Still feel Highlanders have too much to lose to a Rebels side beaten by Reds last week.

Highlanders

1. Aki Seuili,2. Liam Coltman,3. Tyrel Lomax,4. Alex Ainley,5. Jackson Hemopo,6. Shannon Frizell,7. James Lentjes (C),8. Liam Squire,9. Kayne Hammington,10. Lima Sopoaga,11. Tevita Li,12. Teihorangi Walden,13. Thomas Umaga-Jensen,14. Waisake Naholo,15. Josh Ioane

Replacements : 16. Greg Pleasants-Tate, 17. Daniel Lienert-Brown, 18. Kalolo Tuiloma, 19. Tom Franklin, 20. Dillon Hunt, 21. Josh Renton, 22. Matt Faddes, 23. Josh McKay

Wish I had got some of the -2.5 available at the start of the week but taking the -4.5 Canes now before it gets any higher

hanrick wrote: Hi guys! I've been on an extended betting break due to horrible form. Hoping to get back in the game soon.

I've written off my "Sharks to qualify" longterm bet more times than I can remember this season, but the article below has given me some hope again. Makes sense from the Jaguares perspective.

www.supersport.com/rugby/super-rugby/new...guares_second_string

Mass changes to Jaguares side
www.planetrugby.com/news/mass-changes-to-jaguares-side/

Cettas wrote:

hanrick wrote: Hi guys! I've been on an extended betting break due to horrible form. Hoping to get back in the game soon.

I've written off my "Sharks to qualify" longterm bet more times than I can remember this season, but the article below has given me some hope again. Makes sense from the Jaguares perspective.

www.supersport.com/rugby/super-rugby/new...guares_second_string

Mass changes to Jaguares side
www.planetrugby.com/news/mass-changes-to-jaguares-side/

This weeks battle for 7th to 9th is so interesting!!

Brent Graham wrote: Feeling pretty grim about my Chiefs play now

Good to have you lads back in action Hanrick and Pierrebal - always the right thing to take a rest after a poor run

@Brent don't feel grim about the Chiefs play, I have it as one of my best bets

@Hanrick welcome back, I too may join the break brigade soon, I have only managed 2/18 plays over the last three weeks!!

Taken sharks - 5.5 on the back of that news

Rebels hit by injuries:
Adam Coleman, Will Genia, Dane Haylett-Petty and Geoff Parling were all ruled out.

www.foxsports.com.au/rugby/super-rugby/s...62f9d5d704e481ba2d89

Brent Graham wrote:

Oracle wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: Feeling pretty grim about my Chiefs play now

Good to have you lads back in action Hanrick and Pierrebal - always the right thing to take a rest after a poor run

@Brent don't feel grim about the Chiefs play, I have it as one of my best bets

@Hanrick welcome back, I too may join the break brigade soon, I have only managed 2/18 plays over the last three weeks!!

I would have felt a lot better about your @Brent sentence if I hadn't read the @Hanrick one LOL

I see big money for the Hurricanes and I really need the Chiefs - not that much on them directly but they kick off a couple of trebles.

I look forward to waking up to news of the late withdrawal of the Barrett brothers for the Canes

If it makes you feel any better, I also went with the Chiefs on the handicap. Even picked them to win at Superbru and I've had a great couple of weeks. Just a bit worried about McKenzie not being there.

Good morning All
sorry for not participating much recently but travelling quite loads
Just a quick question to see if my understanding is correct : Chiefs need a win with bonus point and 23 points difference to finish 4th while Canes just need a bonus point - is that statement correct? If so, can it not be an open game despite the H2H being in favor of an under? Are the Chiefs over pts and tries not the right move?
Or am I missing something

bradie82 wrote: Good morning All
sorry for not participating much recently but travelling quite loads
Just a quick question to see if my understanding is correct : Chiefs need a win with bonus point and 23 points difference to finish 4th while Canes just need a bonus point - is that statement correct? If so, can it not be an open game despite the H2H being in favor of an under? Are the Chiefs over pts and tries not the right move?
Or am I missing something

Seems right except for the points difference, sites below indicate it is more than 23pts (45pts). Not sure which site could be considered as 'official'

www.sport24.co.za/rugby/superrugby/logs
www.planetrugby.com/tournament/super-rugby/tables/
www.superxv.co.za/log/
www.supersport.com/rugby/super-rugby/logs
www.superbru.com/superrugby/log.php

On Hurricanes -2 placed earlier in the week.

Just heard Ngatai out for the Chiefs with illness. Fa’auli will start at 12.
Big blow that.

Cettas
Indeed 44 points difference today but if Chiefs win by 23, then it is + 114 for Chiefs and +112 for Canes - not many chance to happen but the Chiefs could be playing for tries all game long and the over 2.5 @ 2 could therefore be interesting

Brent Graham wrote: The difference is 45 but if they win by 23 you double it because each point scored takes 1 away from the Canes

Personally I don't think they are targeting this given their team

I saw a tweet saying mist about so conditions may not be great

Thanks Brent & Bradie...and I thought I was not too bad at math

Small play on 3 bets
Over 2.5 tries HT @ 1.90
Over 1.5 tries HT Chiefs @ 2.80
Over 1.5 tries HT Canes @ 2

Brent Graham wrote: The difference is 45 but if they win by 23 you double it because each point scored takes 1 away from the Canes

Personally I don't think they are targeting this given their team

I saw a tweet saying mist about so conditions may not be great

Watching the build up and yeah looks a little misty, cold and wet. Nothing more than drizzle right now, NZ teams can always turn it on even in these conditions though...

Have thrown in Thomson ATS and team FTS @ 4.25 and 15.00, and ALB team FTS @11.00

Chiefs over 2.5 tries @.85/1

Adding 2 more bets - small play once again but no regrets

Over 5.5 tries @1.68
Chiefs over 2.5 tries @ 2.05

Brent Graham wrote:

Brad Breath wrote: On Hurricanes -2 placed earlier in the week.

Just heard Ngatai out for the Chiefs with illness. Fa’auli will start at 12.
Big blow that.

I'm dead now for sure

Haha it doesn't look that way to me.

Took some Hurricanes + 16.5 now at WSB during half time.