Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby

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1 month 1 week ago - 1 month 1 week ago #1 by Brent Graham
Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby was created by Brent Graham
Last week of group action coming up

Had a good week hitting the Crusaders and Tahs minus early in the week and not getting too involved in other matches

Here are my projected caps for week 19 - there are a number of spots and positions still up for grabs

Chiefs -3.5 v Hurricanes
Reds -15.5 v Sunwolves
Highlanders -14.5 v Rebels
Crusaders -16.5 v Blues (assuming Crusaders don't rest too many which as they are sitting out the next week they hopefully wont)
Waratahs -10.5 v Brumbies
Lions -9.5 v Bulls
Sharks -7.5 v Jaguares (assuming Highlanders beat Rebels Sharks can qualify)

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Last edit: 1 month 1 week ago by Brent Graham.
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1 month 1 week ago #2 by Quill
Replied by Quill on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Just giving you a nudge, Brent, the title says week 18... ;)
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1 month 1 week ago #3 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Cheers Quill I have changed

GGGaming are out and their caps in brackets to the right of mine

Chiefs -3.5 v Hurricanes (+1.5)
Reds -15.5 v Sunwolves (-11.5)
Highlanders -14.5 v Rebels (-14.5)
Crusaders -16.5 v Blues (-15.5)
Waratahs -10.5 v Brumbies (-6.5)
Lions -9.5 v Bulls (-8.5)
Sharks -7.5 v Jaguares (-2.5)

Sharks -2.5, Waratahs -6.5 and Chiefs +1.5 for me

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1 month 1 week ago #4 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Have backed Cheifs outright at 25/20 and Waratahs -6.5 Sharks -2.5 also win treble at just under 5/1 and handicap treble at just under 6/1

Finally the Waratahs v Sharks win double at 1.59/1 and just like that my account is empty

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1 month 1 week ago #5 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
just a heads up for any Chiefs backers - Damian McKenzie has to be rested this week as part of All Blacks rules, while Sam Cane also likely out.

Twitter @southpawZA

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1 month 1 week ago #6 by Ruan Fourie
Replied by Ruan Fourie on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
I've got a feeling that the Brumbies will beat the Waratahs this weekend.

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1 month 1 week ago #7 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby

southpaw wrote: just a heads up for any Chiefs backers - Damian McKenzie has to be rested this week as part of All Blacks rules, while Sam Cane also likely out.


Looks like I jumped the gun,Just got to hope for the best I guess

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1 month 1 week ago #8 by Cettas
Replied by Cettas on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby

Brent Graham wrote:

southpaw wrote: just a heads up for any Chiefs backers - Damian McKenzie has to be rested this week as part of All Blacks rules, while Sam Cane also likely out.


Looks like I jumped the gun,Just got to hope for the best I guess


Looks like you might get Brodie back for the game

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1 month 1 week ago #9 by Cettas
Replied by Cettas on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Still a bit to play for, for some teams this weekend

Highlanders v Rebels (If Rebels win they qualify for the playoffs)

Waratahs v Brumbies (Waratahs win would make sure of second placed overall finish)

Lions v Bulls (Lions win will win the conference, second place overall theirs if Waratahs lose)

Sharks v Jaguares (Sharks make it if they win and Rebels lose, Jaguares top if they win and Lions lose)

Other fixtures final weekend

Chiefs v Hurricanes (both teams qualified for playoffs already)

Reds v Sunwolves (nothing on the game between two cellar dwellers)

Crusaders v Blues (Crusaders already assured of top, nothing on the game)
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1 month 1 week ago - 1 month 1 week ago #10 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Many thanks to Couch Critic for the latest edition of Post Match Scuffle, King Kong, Cricket and the English free-ride is available on the link below

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Betting-Blog/po...glish-free-ride.html

twitter: @goodforthegame
Last edit: 1 month 1 week ago by mackem.

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1 month 1 week ago #11 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Hi guys! I've been on an extended betting break due to horrible form. Hoping to get back in the game soon.

I've written off my "Sharks to qualify" longterm bet more times than I can remember this season, but the article below has given me some hope again. Makes sense from the Jaguares perspective.

www.supersport.com/rugby/super-rugby/new...guares_second_string

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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1 month 1 week ago #12 by Pierrebal
Replied by Pierrebal on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Excellent Hanrick, when I saw your post I thought to myself haven't seen your name in a while - I also took a break after the last Super Rugby round before the break and headed to Russia for the World Cup - started getting back into things with some tennis.

Also think the Sharks will sneak into the last 8 - can't see the Highlanders lose at home and with the Bulls' injury concerns (Pollard, Jenkins etc) the Lions should pull through.

The only worry I have is that the Sharks haven't played well when they were the favourites, or against a weakened team - I think back to Waratahs draw, Rebels loss, thumping by the Bulls at home, squeaking it against the Chiefs, and they really should have done better last week.

Team news may end up moving the lines so perhaps taking the 7/10 now is the safe play.

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1 month 1 week ago #13 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Some fascinating games/scenarios to play out this weekend.

Re the Landers v Rebels

Looks as if the Landers will be missing a few, including All Blacks Ben Smith, Naholo, Aaron Smith and Luke Whitelock.

i.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/super-rugby/10...-remainder-of-season

I've taken some of the Rebels +14, which has dropped to +11 with some books.
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1 month 1 week ago #14 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Chiefs v Hurricanes preview

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-Mat...betting-preview.html

6 units Hurricanes -2.5 points at 9/10 WSB

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 1 week ago #15 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Feeling pretty grim about my Chiefs play now

Good to have you lads back in action Hanrick and Pierrebal - always the right thing to take a rest after a poor run

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1 month 1 week ago #16 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Reds v Sunwolves preview ...

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-Mat...betting-preview.html

3.5 units Sunwolves +11.5 points at 9/10 BetXchange

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 1 week ago #17 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
I'm taking a biggish gamble on permutations of Highlanders winning and therefore Jags not having anything to play for, Sharks then everything to play for, Jags could do with resting a few players who all played in their June tests as well.

10 units Sharks win @ 4/6 (Hollywood).

Twitter @southpawZA
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1 month 1 week ago #18 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby

Brad Breath wrote: Some fascinating games/scenarios to play out this weekend.

Re the Landers v Rebels

Looks as if the Landers will be missing a few, including All Blacks Ben Smith, Naholo, Aaron Smith and Luke Whitelock.

i.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/super-rugby/10...-remainder-of-season

I've taken some of the Rebels +14, which has dropped to +11 with some books.


Thanks for this Brad.

Highlanders v Rebels preview ...

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-Mat...betting-preview.html

I've included a 4 pick (1 to 10 scale) Rebels +13.5 points at 9/10 WSB which was best current plus I could find. I'm not overly convinced with Rebels but they don't fly out until Thursday and I read there is still an outside chance of Genia and Coleman playing some part. Worth watching media for news of those 2.

Perhaps a Rebels + on the half time cap (if anyone can find an early one) could be worth a play as an alternative to the full time version?

twitter: @goodforthegame
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1 month 1 week ago #19 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Here's a theory... If Waratahs beat Brumbies they end 2nd and Lions then end 3rd if they beat the Bulls. If Highlanders beat the Rebels they end 6th and if they lose they end 7th. 2nd place play 7th place and 3rd place play 6th place in the QF's. Surely the Highlanders would prefer a trip to Sydney over a trip to Johannesburg. I can see them throwing the game. Would kill the Sharks to qualify bet off for good.

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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1 month 1 week ago #20 by Cettas
Replied by Cettas on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby

hanrick wrote: Here's a theory... If Waratahs beat Brumbies they end 2nd and Lions then end 3rd if they beat the Bulls. If Highlanders beat the Rebels they end 6th and if they lose they end 7th. 2nd place play 7th place and 3rd place play 6th place in the QF's. Surely the Highlanders would prefer a trip to Sydney over a trip to Johannesburg. I can see them throwing the game. Would kill the Sharks to qualify bet off for good.


Interesting

Add to that scenario that the jaguares still loose to the sharks then the Highlanders still play the lions in jhb even after throwing the game, that would suck for them
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1 month 1 week ago #21 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Cannot see Highlanders thinking about the travel factor and permutations too much. Fact is they have lost last 2 games and need to get back into some sort of winning form for confidence.

Twitter @southpawZA
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1 month 6 days ago #22 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
spoke too soon, Smith x2 rested. Doesn't look a great backline, although forwards decent enough. Rebels cap must have come in a fair bit on this news. Still feel Highlanders have too much to lose to a Rebels side beaten by Reds last week.

Highlanders

1. Aki Seuili,2. Liam Coltman,3. Tyrel Lomax,4. Alex Ainley,5. Jackson Hemopo,6. Shannon Frizell,7. James Lentjes (C),8. Liam Squire,9. Kayne Hammington,10. Lima Sopoaga,11. Tevita Li,12. Teihorangi Walden,13. Thomas Umaga-Jensen,14. Waisake Naholo,15. Josh Ioane

Replacements : 16. Greg Pleasants-Tate, 17. Daniel Lienert-Brown, 18. Kalolo Tuiloma, 19. Tom Franklin, 20. Dillon Hunt, 21. Josh Renton, 22. Matt Faddes, 23. Josh McKay

Twitter @southpawZA

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1 month 6 days ago #23 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Many thanks to Oracle for his weekend Super Rugby plays....


Friday's games www.goodforthegame.co.za/Oracle/oracle-r...riday-13th-july.html


Saturday's games www.goodforthegame.co.za/Oracle/oracle-r...urday-14th-july.html

twitter: @goodforthegame
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1 month 6 days ago #24 by Taylor
Replied by Taylor on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Wish I had got some of the -2.5 available at the start of the week but taking the -4.5 Canes now before it gets any higher

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1 month 6 days ago #25 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Crusaders v Blues preview ...

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-Mat...betting-preview.html

1.5 units Crusaders win by 11-20 points inc 2.32/1 BetOlimp

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 6 days ago #26 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Waratahs v Brumbies preview ...

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-Mat...betting-preview.html

4 units Brumbies +7.5 points 9/10 BetXchange

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 6 days ago #27 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Lions v Bulls preview

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-Mat...betting-preview.html

5 units Lions -10.5 points 9/10 widely available

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 6 days ago #28 by Cettas
Replied by Cettas on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby

hanrick wrote: Hi guys! I've been on an extended betting break due to horrible form. Hoping to get back in the game soon.

I've written off my "Sharks to qualify" longterm bet more times than I can remember this season, but the article below has given me some hope again. Makes sense from the Jaguares perspective.

www.supersport.com/rugby/super-rugby/new...guares_second_string


Mass changes to Jaguares side
www.planetrugby.com/news/mass-changes-to-jaguares-side/
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1 month 6 days ago #29 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Thanks Cettas, line seems to be around 5.5 in the Sharks game right now.

Here's our preview, I'm going minus but only with 4 (of 10) units

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-Mat...betting-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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1 month 6 days ago #30 by Oracle
Replied by Oracle on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby

Cettas wrote:

hanrick wrote: Hi guys! I've been on an extended betting break due to horrible form. Hoping to get back in the game soon.

I've written off my "Sharks to qualify" longterm bet more times than I can remember this season, but the article below has given me some hope again. Makes sense from the Jaguares perspective.

www.supersport.com/rugby/super-rugby/new...guares_second_string


Mass changes to Jaguares side
www.planetrugby.com/news/mass-changes-to-jaguares-side/


This weeks battle for 7th to 9th is so interesting!!

Absolutely never, ever worry about the stuff you cannot control!!

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1 month 6 days ago #31 by Oracle
Replied by Oracle on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby

Brent Graham wrote: Feeling pretty grim about my Chiefs play now

Good to have you lads back in action Hanrick and Pierrebal - always the right thing to take a rest after a poor run


@Brent don't feel grim about the Chiefs play, I have it as one of my best bets

@Hanrick welcome back, I too may join the break brigade soon, I have only managed 2/18 plays over the last three weeks!!

Absolutely never, ever worry about the stuff you cannot control!!

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1 month 6 days ago #32 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby

Oracle wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: Feeling pretty grim about my Chiefs play now

Good to have you lads back in action Hanrick and Pierrebal - always the right thing to take a rest after a poor run


@Brent don't feel grim about the Chiefs play, I have it as one of my best bets

@Hanrick welcome back, I too may join the break brigade soon, I have only managed 2/18 plays over the last three weeks!!


I would have felt a lot better about your @Brent sentence if I hadn't read the @Hanrick one LOL

I see big money for the Hurricanes and I really need the Chiefs - not that much on them directly but they kick off a couple of trebles.

I look forward to waking up to news of the late withdrawal of the Barrett brothers for the Canes :silly:

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1 month 6 days ago #33 by Taylor
Replied by Taylor on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Taken sharks - 5.5 on the back of that news

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1 month 6 days ago #34 by Quill
Replied by Quill on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Rebels hit by injuries:
Adam Coleman, Will Genia, Dane Haylett-Petty and Geoff Parling were all ruled out.

www.foxsports.com.au/rugby/super-rugby/s...62f9d5d704e481ba2d89

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1 month 5 days ago #35 by Ruan Fourie
Replied by Ruan Fourie on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby

Brent Graham wrote:

Oracle wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: Feeling pretty grim about my Chiefs play now

Good to have you lads back in action Hanrick and Pierrebal - always the right thing to take a rest after a poor run


@Brent don't feel grim about the Chiefs play, I have it as one of my best bets

@Hanrick welcome back, I too may join the break brigade soon, I have only managed 2/18 plays over the last three weeks!!


I would have felt a lot better about your @Brent sentence if I hadn't read the @Hanrick one LOL

I see big money for the Hurricanes and I really need the Chiefs - not that much on them directly but they kick off a couple of trebles.

I look forward to waking up to news of the late withdrawal of the Barrett brothers for the Canes :silly:


If it makes you feel any better, I also went with the Chiefs on the handicap. Even picked them to win at Superbru and I've had a great couple of weeks. Just a bit worried about McKenzie not being there.

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1 month 5 days ago #36 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Now Ruan with the form you showed last week I do feel a bit better LOL

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1 month 5 days ago #37 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Good morning All
sorry for not participating much recently but travelling quite loads
Just a quick question to see if my understanding is correct : Chiefs need a win with bonus point and 23 points difference to finish 4th while Canes just need a bonus point - is that statement correct? If so, can it not be an open game despite the H2H being in favor of an under? Are the Chiefs over pts and tries not the right move?
Or am I missing something :D

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1 month 5 days ago - 1 month 5 days ago #38 by Cettas
Replied by Cettas on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby

bradie82 wrote: Good morning All
sorry for not participating much recently but travelling quite loads
Just a quick question to see if my understanding is correct : Chiefs need a win with bonus point and 23 points difference to finish 4th while Canes just need a bonus point - is that statement correct? If so, can it not be an open game despite the H2H being in favor of an under? Are the Chiefs over pts and tries not the right move?
Or am I missing something :D


Seems right except for the points difference, sites below indicate it is more than 23pts (45pts). Not sure which site could be considered as 'official'

www.sport24.co.za/rugby/superrugby/logs
www.planetrugby.com/tournament/super-rugby/tables/
www.superxv.co.za/log/
www.supersport.com/rugby/super-rugby/logs
www.superbru.com/superrugby/log.php
Last edit: 1 month 5 days ago by Cettas.

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1 month 5 days ago #39 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
The difference is 45 but if they win by 23 you double it because each point scored takes 1 away from the Canes

Personally I don't think they are targeting this given their team

I saw a tweet saying mist about so conditions may not be great

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1 month 5 days ago #40 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
On Hurricanes -2 placed earlier in the week.

Just heard Ngatai out for the Chiefs with illness. Fa’auli will start at 12.
Big blow that.

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1 month 5 days ago #41 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby

Brad Breath wrote: On Hurricanes -2 placed earlier in the week.

Just heard Ngatai out for the Chiefs with illness. Fa’auli will start at 12.
Big blow that.


I'm dead now for sure

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1 month 5 days ago #42 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Cettas
Indeed 44 points difference today but if Chiefs win by 23, then it is + 114 for Chiefs and +112 for Canes - not many chance to happen but the Chiefs could be playing for tries all game long and the over 2.5 @ 2 could therefore be interesting
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1 month 5 days ago - 1 month 5 days ago #43 by Cettas
Replied by Cettas on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby

Brent Graham wrote: The difference is 45 but if they win by 23 you double it because each point scored takes 1 away from the Canes

Personally I don't think they are targeting this given their team

I saw a tweet saying mist about so conditions may not be great


Thanks Brent & Bradie...and I thought I was not too bad at math :side:
Last edit: 1 month 5 days ago by Cettas.

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1 month 5 days ago #44 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Small play on 3 bets
Over 2.5 tries HT @ 1.90
Over 1.5 tries HT Chiefs @ 2.80
Over 1.5 tries HT Canes @ 2

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1 month 5 days ago - 1 month 5 days ago #45 by Taylor
Replied by Taylor on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby

Brent Graham wrote: The difference is 45 but if they win by 23 you double it because each point scored takes 1 away from the Canes

Personally I don't think they are targeting this given their team

I saw a tweet saying mist about so conditions may not be great


Watching the build up and yeah looks a little misty, cold and wet. Nothing more than drizzle right now, NZ teams can always turn it on even in these conditions though...

Have thrown in Thomson ATS and team FTS @ 4.25 and 15.00, and ALB team FTS @11.00
Last edit: 1 month 5 days ago by Taylor.
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1 month 5 days ago #46 by Roger Rabbit
Replied by Roger Rabbit on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Chiefs over 2.5 tries @.85/1

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1 month 5 days ago #47 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Adding 2 more bets - small play once again but no regrets

Over 5.5 tries @1.68
Chiefs over 2.5 tries @ 2.05
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1 month 5 days ago #48 by Ruan Fourie
Replied by Ruan Fourie on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby

Brent Graham wrote:

Brad Breath wrote: On Hurricanes -2 placed earlier in the week.

Just heard Ngatai out for the Chiefs with illness. Fa’auli will start at 12.
Big blow that.


I'm dead now for sure


Haha it doesn't look that way to me.

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1 month 5 days ago #49 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Following online, took some cover Canes 7/1 and 24/1 the draw

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1 month 5 days ago #50 by Ruan Fourie
Replied by Ruan Fourie on topic Super Rugby Week 19 and other Rugby
Took some Hurricanes + 16.5 now at WSB during half time.

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