6 nations and Super rugby

First rugby bet of 2019. Ireland onto Crusaders at 6.2to1

Wow GG Gaming out with first round Super Rugby prices already. Big ups to them.

Hey guys, looks to me that The Lions pack has some huge omissions this year and they had already regressed significantly last year, what do you fellas think about the other SA teams?

I'm finding it hard to separate Stormers & Sharks with Bulls possibly not far behind with some sound offseason recruiting.

Stormers were very good back in 2017 and showed promise early in 2018 before injuries decimated them so I'm expecting them to be a lot better this year plus the omission of Raymond Rhule is surely a net positive!

With a full strength pack they look very formidable on paper.

Sharks look fairly settled although JLDP will be a big loss in the first month and in reality they were average in 2018 sneaking into the playoffs with a net PD of -5.

Brits & Vermeulen are excellent recruits for The Bulls especially Vermeulen of course, adding Hendricks & Specman in the backline adds some depth. They had some great games in 2018 but also some very poor games, to be excited on a team rebuilding but perhaps they kick on a bit this year?

Jags will be irrelevant with Ledesma & Sanchez gone I think.

I'll be interested to hear your thoughts, also does anyone know if there is talk of Boks being rested throughout the season?

WSB out with a few Super Rugby Exotics

Like the Sharks over 6.5 wins in regular season @ 2.0

They have home games against - Stormers, Bulls, Blues, Rebels, Jaguars, Lions, Reds & Hurricanes

First round Jaguares to beat the Lions @ 31/20 out there. Screams value to me.

Hi lads,

Greetings from Ireland. Couple of things in this area. Haven't posted in a while.

So Sharks first game is vs Sunwolves. Sunwolves seem to be missing pretty much all of their Japanese internationals for their first few games. Japan have scheduled a RWC training camp for February, Sharks look like a team on the rise. I feel like the Sharks -9 available out there is a bit of a gift. But ye know better than me over in SA. Talk me out of it. Here is the confirmation of Sunwolves info: Tweet from Japanese Rugby Reporter

Talk in Ireland is that Henshaw will start FB. Kearney's form is ropey and Larmour is a bit too inexperienced for this type of game.

One bet I'm looking at this week is Italy first half hcap vs Scotland. They start strong and tire as games and tournament goes on. Same thing, every year
Should be -12 or so.
Last 6 first games for Italy in 6N:
2018: Home to England - 15-46 (10-17 HT)
2017: Home to Wales - 7-33 (7-6 HT 7-12 after 60mins)
2016: Away to France - 23-21 (10-8 HT)
2015: Home to Ireland - 3-26 (3-9 HT)
2014: Away to Wales - 23-15 (17-3 HT)
2013: Home to France - 23-18 (13-15 HT)
I'm guessing they won that bet 5 out of last 6 times.

My shitty treble for the weekend is as follows:
Italy -12 First Half Hcap
Ireland straight up
France +9.
Treble with Boyles is 21/10 or so.

Outright 6N thoughts; Ireland worthy favourites but a touch too short. Best way to oppose them is back Wales (took 13/2 last week) and, possibly, England now that 4/1 or more can be had. Simplest way to oppose them would be to lay them or I did see 11/10 "the field" on offer last week.

I've sold total kicking metres (distance of all successful kicks at goal) at 3,800. Done some number crunching and reached the conclusion that's a bit high; stakes modest to say the least!

Fancying a bet on total drop goals but the markets are so far opposed on this that there are decent prices for going high or low! Any views on the general trend for drop goals, are they falling out of favour a bit?

To put it in betting terms, which is the best bet at 11/10 each of two, under 2.5 or over?

Brent Graham wrote: Nice posts guys - Harry I wonder if teams may start working a few drop goal opportunities in as practise for a tight game in RWC?

Thanks, curiously you're the second person to suggest that to me (those being the only opinions I've had in response to my various posts and tweets).

I'm coming round more to backing overs and will post the bet(s) once I've reached my decision.

After much deliberation I've been converted to the side of overs in respect of drop goals. A lot of opinion seems to be weighted towards some tight games that might see a dearth of tries and towards the concept of teams pretty much looking to practice drop goals in the run up to a World Cup.

Here are the the key prices should anyone want a bet of any sort.

<2.5 drop goals is 11/10 with Tote/Fred
>1.5 drop goals is 8/11 with Lads
Exactly 3 drop goals is 4/1 with Lads/Sportingbet
4+ drop goals is 5/1 with Lads/Sportingbet

The bet I recommend is dutching the exactly 3 and 4+ to get 2.73 for >2.5 drop goals. You can tease this upwards a bit if you can use a priceboost with Lads.

I took the stats back 8 years to cover the last 2 World Cup years and the totals are as follows with 3 and 5 in the World Cup years:

2-2-1-3-3-3-3-5

Overall stats suggest it's a great price, the 2, 2 and 1 in the last 3 renewals are a concern but the general consensus re tighter games and World Cup year allay the worries to an extent.

If nothing else, it's an interest in every game!

Hi guys long time no post

France v Wales - Either team by 7 or less at 2.43

Feels very much a pick em game. Also trying fewer bets with bigger stakes. Good luck all!

My other picks for today:

Scotland 21-30 winning margin at 4.00
Ireland 1-12 winning margin at 2.28

I think Eddie Jones, will scrap a win. Going England win 2.80 @ betxchange

the punter wrote: I think Eddie Jones, will scrap a win. Going England win 2.80 @ betxchange

Oh yess

At risk of once again getting over excited by the Blues pre-season form i think this year there is far more to take a bit more confidence from -

1. Much better coach bringing a Saders like professional set-up in his coaching team,
2. Momentum from Auckland MitreCup success last year - definitely helping development of several Blues players,
3. Good squad less impacted by All Black mandatory rests than other NZ squads.

Just think there's something different brewing in Auckland to past seasons, when i've also been swayed by a past love-affair with Blues only to see any bets go up in smoke very early in season.

For now i'm going in with a round 1 bet -

Blues +7.5 @ 10/11 vs Saders. Saders without Read, Sam Whitelock, Cody Taylor amongst others.

southpaw wrote: At risk of once again getting over excited by the Blues pre-season form i think this year there is far more to take a bit more confidence from -

1. Much better coach bringing a Saders like professional set-up in his coaching team,
2. Momentum from Auckland MitreCup success last year - definitely helping development of several Blues players,
3. Good squad less impacted by All Black mandatory rests than other NZ squads.

Just think there's something different brewing in Auckland to past seasons, when i've also been swayed by a past love-affair with Blues only to see any bets go up in smoke very early in season.

For now i'm going in with a round 1 bet -

Blues +7.5 @ 10/11 vs Saders. Saders without Read, Sam Whitelock, Cody Taylor amongst others.

Good to see we're on the same page South. I took a strike on the Blues +12 at 8/10 two weeks ago. Basing my bet on the same reasons you cited. Leon McDonald did well with Tasman last year. I also took some 33/10 Blues to win the game.

good stuff Hanrick i like the alignment without us having even shared a thought on it before. Hoping Saders last season fast start was a freak as usually very slow starters.

Nice Blues preview from Blues fan and youtube blogger Two Cents Rugby -

can almost feel his pain as a long-suffering Blues fan from last few seasons, he's not getting his hopes too high but nice to hear his honest views.

9 more Japanese players ruled out for Sunwolves

cluaindiuic wrote: 9 more Japanese players ruled out for Sunwolves

Sounds good,Sharks should be prepped for this first one.
Sunwolves do have 4 Saffas in their ranks,Lappies,Hattingh.......

Both of those are in the Japanese training squad so unavailable.

cluaindiuic wrote: Both of those are in the Japanese training squad so unavailable.

OK maybe some of the Aussies,Fijians? will be playing for them?See Kiwis are lining up to play in Japan now.Willie Brits has been a good player,surely getting on and I see they've signed Luke Thompson--37 years old.
Sharks play their second warmup against Bulls this Saturday after losing in a hard 14-19 game against Lions last weekend.
I see their only previous game over there was won by 20 pojnts against Suns in 2017

like this round 1 treble -

Blues +7.5
Sharks -9.5
Bulls win

at a shade under 5/1