Cycling: The Giro 2019 - bring it on baby

This is the best time of the year.

I see Micheal Woods isn't starting the Giro, a bit disappointed.

I have gone with the Landa @ 20/1 & 9/2 to podium.
I have always rated him and think this is his chance this year. With 3 ITT's will suit him as he is more than decent in that and has shown previously with Sky he can keep up with the best. His prep hasn't been the best but hoping he rides into this tour.

Also I have taken him over Lopez @ 31/20 for now.

Look forward to the guru's previews but those are my early thoughts.

Taken a couple more:

King of Mountains Match up

Lopez over Doumilon @ 8/11
With the time trials think Lopez will have to try take wins up mountains.

Also taken some Team Jumbo Visa for the team leaders @ 40/1

Still waiting for EFF to confirm final 8 so starting with a gripe. The organizers have explained their par course as " A return to a good old fashioned Grand Tour without any gimmicks ". This may be true but, unfortunately times have changed and there is a very good reason why the courses have changed. Cycling has changed over the years with specialists in every field. There are no longer the Merx's, Hinault's etc who could do everything - probably the last of the old school is Valverde. So we need stages for sprinters, climbers, break away specialists and, most importantly, good TV viewing. With 9 stages over 200km and 8 of them over 220km there are going to be very few break volunteers - so boring reeling in of 3 man break. There are 5 stages under 170km - hooray - but wait - 2 of them are sprinters stages. SO not only are you being chased by several GC teams you also have half a dozen sprint teams hunting you down. And the ITT on the last day?? Come on fellows. You miss a four hour celebration of the Giro and your country and give us 150 riders out there on their own with the paying public only being interested in the last 3 or 4 riders in a four hour show.
Right - I feel better now

Thanks Vann, I read in cycling news teams were finalised, My mistake.

No problem KT - Wouters finally announced his team last night. My take on the Giro.
Maglia Rosa
I believe this to be a straight shoot-out between Roglic and Yates. Simon is the twin that can time trial (Won the ITT in Paris-Nice) and I don't think Tommy D gets more then 30-40 sec off Yates in the 3 time trials because of the climbs. All stages have 10-6-4 sec bonuses (Except ITT's) and Yates will get that back from Tommy D in 2-3 stages.
Initial Thoughts
Lopez has finished 3rd in his last two Grand Tours and may be value for podium if one of the top three go through a bad patch. Ineos (Sky) lost Bernal last week and were unable to persuade Thomas to ride. They are going with Sivakov and Geoghegen Hart. I don't rate Sivakov's chances but Geoghegen Hart was last man standing dragging Froome through the Vuelta last year and I quite fancy his top 10 odds running around 2/1.
Mountains Classification
The way the course is set up this competition only starts in stage 12 so will only pick in play.
Points Classification
The course is badly designed for the sprinters. The second last flat stage is stage 11 and they only have one more shot over the last 10 stages in the mountains. This means that, except for 1 and 2 in the jersey standings most of them will bugger off home. Fancied that 35/10 place for Ewan but I think any place bets are a waste of money. Points are based on stage rankings max 50/25/15 to 20/15/10 riders and a good sprinter should rack up enough to win the jersey.
Initial Thoughts
I have a match bet in mind but I find the odds very much in my favour and need to check a few things in case my ancient grey cells are feeding me crap.
Young Rider Classification
Scrolled through the odds a few evenings ago when Bernal was withdrawn and saw Geoghegen Hart at 16//1 - bombed it as I saw Sosa listed as the favorite and he will not be the supported rider. Checked sites the next day and discovered Lopez is still a young rider. Frightened the crap out of the book though as I saw the odds had dropped to 10/1.
Initial Thoughts
Any top 3 over 14/10 and any 17/20 match bet - excluding Lopez - on Geoghegen Hart I will take.
Team Classification
Can't get hurt with the odds KT took on Jumbo Visma. I find the odds on this comp don't move much in the first few stages and I would like to see how Ineos approach the Giro. With no real jersey prospects they may look at this competition as a possibility.
Initial Thoughts
Astana look like a shoe-in so I will wait to see how the breaks form over the first few stages, follow the twitter accounts and try and see if any teams are considering this comp.
Will post main bets tomorrow.

Thanks Vann, really appreciate your thoughts, Was going to ask you who the Team Sky leader wasgoing to be.

Thanks look forward to your picks.

I know mine a way outside picks, but just going with guys who i have liked.

Thanks.

Slim pickings on the outrights guys. Going with half my normal upfront spend and larger in play bets.Two bets I like and one purely on odds. Capped Nizzolo/Modolo at 8/10 and evens so taking the extra odds.
Top 10 Finish
Geoghegen Hart @ 18/10
Matchbet Double
Lopez over Majka into
Oomen over O Connor @ 2/1
Points Jersey Matchbet
Modolo over Nizzolo @ 18/10
Will be splashing a few beers on some second choice outrights and will post later.

An early weather play guys. Bad weather is expected to move through on tomorrow's ITT and all GC contenders are taking the first of their team slots, except for Yates who has taken their 8th slot. Straight Aussie weather expertise bet
Giro Stage 1
Win
Yates @ 6/1
(Can blame the convicts if this fails)

And the beer outrights going to
Young Rider Win without Lopez
Geoghegen Hart @ 3/1
Top 3 Overall
Lopez @ 9/2
To Win a Stage - Yes
Formolo @ 11/4
Conti @ 7/2
Points Jersey Winner
Ewan @ 14/1

I love having a King of the Mountains interest at a nice big price but from what I've heard there are less points available during mountain stages (or just less mountains) and thus the winner will have to finish in the top few on more than one summit finish. Given the fact that the lesser time trialers will need to win these stages I reckon the KOM will go to somone who will be a Top10 rider.

KOM:
Landa @ 10/1

Not an ideal course for the sprinters and we could se plenty pack up and leave before the end. I can't see beyond the top name on the board and will stick with Viviani to be the speediest of them all.
Points Classification Winner:
E Viviani @ 2/1

Thanks Couch and Vann for the thoughts.

I have gone with the following for Stage 1:

Landa / Pozzovivo @ evens
Landa / Nibali @ 17/10

Nibali / Yates @ 28/10 - Just based on if weather that bad late, maybe the Shark will have the beating of him.

And then small beer money on the following 2 for wins and places:

De Gendt @ 400/1 & 80/1
Nieve @ 600/1 & 150/1

Enjoy the first day. Hope no big losses due to weather.

Like that weather matchbet spot KT
Nibali/Yates @ 33/10 at BetX

Nice pick Brent, doubt anyone will beat him now. He is a machine.

Very disappointing ride by Landa, have written off all my tour bets with him now, no chance for tour matchbet, to lose a minute to Lopez a joke. Carpraz will take over leadership of team I reckon.

Believe it was pouring with rain less than 30min after last rider finished yesterday - close on our weather matchbet. Don't follow Moviestar but I think Landa was the late replacement when Valverde pulled so he should ride into some form as race progresses.
Joining Mackem on Ewan today @ 9/1

Weather forecast cold and rain - not Ewan's favorite. If he does not contest there is a small dink 14km out so a long shot team mate
Campenaerts @ 100/1

Is WSB serious with their odds or is someone smoking something there at HQ...

Ackerman @ 5/1
Gaviria @ 8/1
And Ewen 28/1
Damare 33/1

Am I missing something here??

Thanks Couch. At those odds will take
Viviani @ 2/1
Ewan @ 28/1

Well there you go. Loaded with cycling knowledge - called the par course crap and so it proves to be - but can I make a penny. Not a chance. Viviani relegated and my main overall punt loses 1 1/2 min on a nothing stage.

I was on Ewan at a great price yesterday but he was a no show.

Reckon he is the toughest sprinter in the pack and think he will win if it comes down to a reduced battle between the fast guys. I dont think the end is actually as steep as some might think so dont think someone like Ulissi is as big a player (que him to take the win)

I like that 50/1 from BG but have also gone for:
Nizzolo @ 41
Simone Consonni Top 3 @ 55/1 (hoping they decide to let him have a go)
TdG @ 44/1 (in case he goes for the break)

Was out early today and missed the 50/1 at Sporting - now 4/1
Fancied Ewan but odds too short. Going with
e/w
Vuillermoz @ 40/1

Back on my favorite hobby horse. This is, without a doubt, the worst course since the TdF thought it was a good idea to take the riders over a narrow,wet causeway in stage 2 in 1999 and lost three GC contenders Zulle, Gotti and Boogerd.
You cannot backload a Grand Tour and then have 200km plus stages in the beginning with no climbs. You get no break volunteers and the riders cruise through the day with a result that when you get to the last 20km every team has at least two fresh guys who think they can win. Just a perfect recipe for a friggen disaster.
Oh and stiffs on that Tommy D bet Brent - also took out my Oomen match bet.

Brent Graham wrote:
Vann I never got any long terms down in the end thankfully

And you made your Man City bet - YOU LUCKY BASKET

1 match bet for me today.

Jungels/Landa @ 12/10

On simple basis and may be wrong. Jungels if I remember is the 2nd last lead out guy for Viviani. So he will be up near the front come finish. Know it's guess work but that's my logic.

Enjoy the short stage today.

Came up with exactly the same KT. There is a pinch point 2km out from the finish which should be OK for GC as its within the last 3km but Ewan sometimes is poorly placed at that point and the weather is expected to be poor so also taking
Moschetti over Ewan @ 16/10
and have thrown a beer at the above double @ 47/10

Joining on the break and the Bakelants pick. Adding two upfront and will try and get one from the break in play if its a big one
Masnada @ 25/1
Knox @ 66/1

The Vann wrote: Joining on the break and the Bakelants pick. Adding two upfront and will try and get one from the break in play if its a big one
Masnada @ 25/1
Knox @ 66/1

Whoooohoooo!! Nice one Vann!

Chris you're stealing my plays today! I'm also giving Gallopin and Baty G a go (actually have a preview coming your way in that regard).

Thanks all. Had a second bonus in that Oomen made break and puts my outright match bet back in play.
Not sure the break stays today as UAE will be keen to keep jersey as long as possible and they are running into a headwind most of the day. A combo pick
Win only
Yates @ 16/1
Vuillermoz @ 50/1
e/w
Gavazzi @ 50/1

Very close yesterday Couch.
Stage too long today before a mountain ITT. Weather expected to be crap and the run in is poor and dangerous. Just two roughies for me
Rojas @ 89/1
Biermanns @ 93/1

Hardlines Couch.

2 Outsiders for me,
Gallopin @ 100/1
Polanc @ 300/1

ITT
Roglic is a lock but 2/9 not worth it. Reckon Campenaerts gets to the last 2km with a minute over Yates and Nibali. Question is can they take a minute off him over the last 2.2km and 6 minutes. Probably but still worth a shot at the odds
1-3
Campenaerts @ 4/1

Hi Vann

I am just asking, you don't think the climbing from 22km out will affect Campenearts?

Also do you not think the fall Roglic took won't have taken something out of him, its the first time he hasn't had the team protecting him? |For me it was the first time he stands a chance of been beaten?

Sorry for the questions