Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
- Brent Graham
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A full 7 game schedule this coming weekend and here are my projected handicaps (Coil just sent his through in brackets to the right) . GGGaming should be out around 11h45
Chiefs -14.5 v Reds (-10.5)
Brumbies -6.5 v Bulls (-10.5)
Sunwolves +7.5 v Rebels (+13.5)
Crusaders -13.5 v Blues (-14.5)
Waratahs -1.5 v Jaguares (-2.5)
Stormers -4.5 v Highlanders (-5.5)
Sharks -6.5 v Lions (-7.5)
Here is the video where I look like a man who slept on the couch after a night watching golf
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- southpaw
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I’m looking for biggest Jaguares plus, think the Tahs could be getting tired despite a very good win. They are letting in a lot of tries of late.
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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Storm to beat Landers @0.9
Tahs to beat Jags @0.7
Brumbies to beat Bulls @0.7
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- Rogerollo
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Good tackling and lineout jumping in this last game against Crusaders.
Landers should get Naholo back this next weekend but loose Walden due to concussion.
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- CLrugby
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@Chris_Lacharge
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- southpaw
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1st bet down, reds without Kerevi reading reports, massive shoes to fill, their best player by a mile.
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- Ruan Fourie
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- hanrick
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- mackem
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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Here's why:
Initially, I priced this game at -6.5 for the Sharks. The Sharks have had the week off which mitigates any travel worries. Their fortunes have turned since moving Bosch to 10 and have seen a vast improvement in their results. Bookies still pricing Lions up on the back of 2 Super Rugby finals. Sharks will be targeting this game in order to finalise their play off aspirations. Lions unconvincing in beating Landers and Tahs (very favourable refereeing).
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- bradie82
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Toulouse and Clermont are qualified for the semi finals
Lyon is 99% sure to have a quarter final at home
Now there are 4 teams for the last 3 spots
- Racing 69 points : play at Agen and will be looking for a bonus point win to get a quarter final at home
- Castres 69 points : Play Toulon – same as above – could be a very open game but with Urios as a coach, I will not bet on that
- Montpellier 66 points : playing in Clermont – need a win and if possible a bonus point as well as La Rochelle is playing Bordeaux at home – over tries team and match would be my first move
- La Rochelle 66 points : rested key players last week end in Lyon to focus on this game – Bordeaux is out the play off race so could be an entertaining game with 2 teams playing an open game
I am not sure the last 2 games Grenoble vs Lyon and Toulouse vs Perpignan will be available but in case, I would look first at over on the Toulouse game but I suspect the cut will be similar to a Super sport Challenge one. Grenoble will have a “final” to play the following week end at Brive or Bayonne to stay in Top 14 or go to ProD2 so not sure what to expect
I think Clermont will bring more than decent squad as they won ‘t be playing for 2 weeks after that and as they rested some players last week end, that would be 3 weeks without a game which is too much at this stage of the season.
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- davopnz
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Sharks are the play of the week, can't believe this one opened a split.
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- southpaw
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southpaw wrote: Jumped on Chiefs -7 @ 10/11
1st bet down, reds without Kerevi reading reports, massive shoes to fill, their best player by a mile.
next best bet down - Jaguares +3.5 @ 17/20.
Jags full of confidence, 2 good games against NZ sides, now face Tahs. Jags have never lost in Aus! Tah's having to deal with another player controversy and they've not been entirely convincing at home this season.
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- landrews77
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- RuggaBugga
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Jags / Stormers / Sharks!
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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- mackem
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- mackem
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goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/ch...betting-preview.html
2 units Chiefs to win both halves? (yes) at 11/10 Sunbet
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- mackem
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goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/br...betting-preview.html
2.5 units, Total points under 55.5 at 17/20 Betway
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- Scoembo
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mackem wrote: Chiefs v Reds preview
goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/ch...betting-preview.html
2 units Chiefs to win both halves? (yes) at 11/10 Sunbet
Granted Kerevi is a big loss for the Reds but the Chiefs have all of the below missing which have a much bigger impact on their team:
Mackenzie
Retallick
Jacobsen
Allardice
MItchell Brown
Lienert Brown
Orbyn Ledger
I only mentioned Mitchell Brown as he was their third and last lock although he has also been played at loosie sometimes. The Chiefs are literally so depleted in their lock stocks that they have to play two loosies (Ardron and Parette) at lock. In summary I believe the Reds will have the upper hand up front and this should make the game more even than expected although the Chiefs should see it through in the end based purely on the fact that they have Kiwi blood coursing through their veins but it should be a real struggle. In my opinion the +10.5 on offer at the moment is golden.
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- Ruan Fourie
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- Scoembo
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mackem wrote: Brumbies v Bulls preview
goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/br...betting-preview.html
2.5 units, Total points under 55.5 at 17/20 Betway
The Bulls won a scrappy game last week and their forward pack isnt bad but too many unforced errors and Manie Libbok at flyhalf makes the -6.5 Brumbies a real banker. On top of that the Bulls will have that ghost town feeling. You know the one where you think "None of these guys around me are gonna be here next year"
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- mackem
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goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/su...betting-preview.html
2 units Rebels -5.5 points at 0.83 Betway
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- mackem
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goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/cr...betting-preview.html
1.5 units, Blues +13.5 points at 9/10 BetXchange
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- mackem
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goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/wa...betting-preview.html
2 units Home team win by 1-12 points 19/10 Sunbet
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- mackem
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- mackem
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goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/sh...betting-preview.html
No Marx for Lions, 3.5 units Sharks -3.5 points 19/20 BetXchange
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- mackem
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goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/st...betting-preview.html
1.5 units Stormers to win by 1-10 points, 24/10 WSB
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- mackem
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- Brent Graham
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- bradie82
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Chiefs vs Reds Under 8.5 tries @ 1.72
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- Brent Graham
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- Brad Breath
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My early acca this week was Chiefs, Brumbies & Crusaders all to win @ 2.70
Have also placed the following cap bets:
Chiefs -7
Jags +4
Sharks -1
Also have a suspicion the Crusaders will click back into gear and run all over the Blues, but will hold fire on that for now.
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- Brent Graham
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Will do a show at 18h00 this evening on the remaining games
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- hanrick
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hanrick wrote: Brodie Retallick should be back for the Chiefs this weekend. I'm nervous on backing the Chiefs, but with the Kerevi news and Brodie being back, I'm joining on the -6.5
On the news of Brodie and ALB not playing I have traded out of the above bet.
Under 57.5 match points at 17/20 in the Chiefs vs Reds game
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- RuggaBugga
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Following on the Unders!
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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- southpaw
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- Overs_Punter
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Brumbies -3.5 @ 0.86/1, Brumbies to win & under 60.5 points 1.55/1 & under 55.5 @ 0.89/1 in the following games.
I see the line for the stormers game is still 55.5 - have lumped - there will not be over 50 points at newlands this whole season - quote will definitely drop at least 5 points by this arvo
SSC
Sharks -30.5 @ 10/11
Boland -24.5 @ 5/6
Double 5/2
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- southpaw
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Chiefs
Brumbies
Crusaders
Jaguares
Highlanders
Sharks
14/1
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- hanrick
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Brumbies to win and under 50.5 points at 14/10
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- bradie82
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Brumbies to win & under 60.5 points 1.55/1
Brumbies to win and under 50.5 points at 14/10
Those are value bet but guess not available in Europe
Thanks in advance
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- hanrick
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bradie82 wrote: Overs, Hanrick, May I ask on which bookie you find the following bet
Brumbies to win & under 60.5 points 1.55/1
Brumbies to win and under 50.5 points at 14/10
Those are value bet but guess not available in Europe
Thanks in advance
Betway, Playabets, Sunbet
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- Overs_Punter
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Stormers & under 60.5 @ 7/4
Stormers to win the SA conference 12/1
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- Northerner
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bradie82 wrote: Overs, Hanrick, May I ask on which bookie you find the following bet
Brumbies to win & under 60.5 points 1.55/1
Brumbies to win and under 50.5 points at 14/10
Those are value bet but guess not available in Europe
Thanks in advance
Hey Bradie, Betfair do these type of bets. For example in that game they have Brumbies and under 48.5 @ 17/10
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- bradie82
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Northerner wrote:
bradie82 wrote: Overs, Hanrick, May I ask on which bookie you find the following bet
Brumbies to win & under 60.5 points 1.55/1
Brumbies to win and under 50.5 points at 14/10
Those are value bet but guess not available in Europe
Thanks in advance
Hey Bradie, Betfair do these type of bets. For example in that game they have Brumbies and under 48.5 @ 17/10
Thanks Northerner
I ve seen it but quite a gap between 48.5 and 60.5 which has even a better odd
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- southpaw
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- Ruan Fourie
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- hanrick
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Ruan Fourie wrote: Where are you guys getting points markets on the Stormers game?
Betway
Betway, Playabets and Betxchange had points lines up on Monday already. But just for 3 games.
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- Ruan Fourie
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- bradie82
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- alike
Chiefs -3.5 try handicap at 1.65 on Betway
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