Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby

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4 years 10 months ago #1 by Brent Graham
Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby was created by Brent Graham
A decent weekend for me mainly because I was selective and only had a couple of serious punts.
A full 7 game schedule this coming weekend and here are my projected handicaps (Coil just sent his through in brackets to the right) . GGGaming should be out around 11h45

Chiefs -14.5 v Reds (-10.5)
Brumbies -6.5 v Bulls (-10.5)
Sunwolves +7.5 v Rebels (+13.5)
Crusaders -13.5 v Blues (-14.5)
Waratahs -1.5 v Jaguares (-2.5)
Stormers -4.5 v Highlanders (-5.5)
Sharks -6.5 v Lions (-7.5)

Here is the video where I look like a man who slept on the couch after a night watching golf


Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
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4 years 10 months ago #2 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Also had a fairly selective and successful weekend, mainly a big play on Highlanders points did the job, didn’t punt final game but it was very test match like just as hanrick had predicted.

I’m looking for biggest Jaguares plus, think the Tahs could be getting tired despite a very good win. They are letting in a lot of tries of late.

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4 years 10 months ago #3 by ThoughtsOnSports
Replied by ThoughtsOnSports on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Early fancies for me:

Storm to beat Landers @0.9
Tahs to beat Jags @0.7
Brumbies to beat Bulls @0.7

twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports

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4 years 10 months ago #4 by Rogerollo
Replied by Rogerollo on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Great price on Stormers there.They have beaten Highlanders last 4X in Cape Town.
Good tackling and lineout jumping in this last game against Crusaders.

Landers should get Naholo back this next weekend but loose Walden due to concussion.

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4 years 10 months ago #5 by CLrugby
Replied by CLrugby on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
If I am correct the Tahs were supposed to rest 5 players last week against the Reds as they have exceeded the agreed game time with AUS federation. They got an exception so are they forced to rest them all this week?

@Chris_Lacharge

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4 years 10 months ago #6 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Jumped on Chiefs -7 @ 10/11

1st bet down, reds without Kerevi reading reports, massive shoes to fill, their best player by a mile.
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4 years 10 months ago #7 by Ruan Fourie
Replied by Ruan Fourie on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Thanks, I also jumped on Chiefs-6.5 now. Kerevi is basically the Reds team.

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4 years 10 months ago #8 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Brodie Retallick should be back for the Chiefs this weekend. I'm nervous on backing the Chiefs, but with the Kerevi news and Brodie being back, I'm joining on the -6.5

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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4 years 10 months ago #9 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Rassie's Relief ..... this week's edition of Post Match Scuffle from Couch Critic


goodforthegame.co.za/Couch-Critic/post-m...rassie-s-relief.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 10 months ago #10 by ThoughtsOnSports
Replied by ThoughtsOnSports on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Sharks to beat Lions at 0.8 is GOLDEN.

Here's why:

Initially, I priced this game at -6.5 for the Sharks. The Sharks have had the week off which mitigates any travel worries. Their fortunes have turned since moving Bosch to 10 and have seen a vast improvement in their results. Bookies still pricing Lions up on the back of 2 Super Rugby finals. Sharks will be targeting this game in order to finalise their play off aspirations. Lions unconvincing in beating Landers and Tahs (very favourable refereeing).

twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports
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4 years 10 months ago #11 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Just a quick update on the Top 14 for those who bet on this competition.

Toulouse and Clermont are qualified for the semi finals
Lyon is 99% sure to have a quarter final at home
Now there are 4 teams for the last 3 spots
- Racing 69 points : play at Agen and will be looking for a bonus point win to get a quarter final at home
- Castres 69 points : Play Toulon – same as above – could be a very open game but with Urios as a coach, I will not bet on that
- Montpellier 66 points : playing in Clermont – need a win and if possible a bonus point as well as La Rochelle is playing Bordeaux at home – over tries team and match would be my first move
- La Rochelle 66 points : rested key players last week end in Lyon to focus on this game – Bordeaux is out the play off race so could be an entertaining game with 2 teams playing an open game

I am not sure the last 2 games Grenoble vs Lyon and Toulouse vs Perpignan will be available but in case, I would look first at over on the Toulouse game but I suspect the cut will be similar to a Super sport Challenge one. Grenoble will have a “final” to play the following week end at Brive or Bayonne to stay in Top 14 or go to ProD2 so not sure what to expect

I think Clermont will bring more than decent squad as they won ‘t be playing for 2 weeks after that and as they rested some players last week end, that would be 3 weeks without a game which is too much at this stage of the season.
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4 years 10 months ago #12 by davopnz
Replied by davopnz on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Unfortunately Brodie nor Luke Jacobson will be back this week and they've also now lost Mitch Brown. However just can't see how Reds are going to generate any attack without Kerevi, he has nearly double the run metres of Naivalu who is their 2nd top ball carrier, miles ahead in all the other key attacking stats too. He is their Lebron James.

Sharks are the play of the week, can't believe this one opened a split.
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4 years 10 months ago #13 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby

southpaw wrote: Jumped on Chiefs -7 @ 10/11

1st bet down, reds without Kerevi reading reports, massive shoes to fill, their best player by a mile.


next best bet down - Jaguares +3.5 @ 17/20.

Jags full of confidence, 2 good games against NZ sides, now face Tahs. Jags have never lost in Aus! Tah's having to deal with another player controversy and they've not been entirely convincing at home this season.

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4 years 10 months ago #14 by landrews77
Replied by landrews77 on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
South , with you on the Chiefs and Jaguares train. I feel that is the two best bets of the weekend. Good picks.

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4 years 10 months ago #15 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Win Treble
Jags / Stormers / Sharks!

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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4 years 10 months ago #16 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Outright winner betting update and also Aus and SA Conference winner prices from Sunbet. Have included remaining matches for those AUS and SA sides in play off contention.

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/su...-betting-update.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 10 months ago #17 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Chiefs v Reds preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/ch...betting-preview.html

2 units Chiefs to win both halves? (yes) at 11/10 Sunbet

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 10 months ago #18 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Brumbies v Bulls preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/br...betting-preview.html

2.5 units, Total points under 55.5 at 17/20 Betway

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 10 months ago #19 by Scoembo
Replied by Scoembo on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby

mackem wrote: Chiefs v Reds preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/ch...betting-preview.html

2 units Chiefs to win both halves? (yes) at 11/10 Sunbet


Granted Kerevi is a big loss for the Reds but the Chiefs have all of the below missing which have a much bigger impact on their team:

Mackenzie
Retallick
Jacobsen
Allardice
MItchell Brown
Lienert Brown
Orbyn Ledger

I only mentioned Mitchell Brown as he was their third and last lock although he has also been played at loosie sometimes. The Chiefs are literally so depleted in their lock stocks that they have to play two loosies (Ardron and Parette) at lock. In summary I believe the Reds will have the upper hand up front and this should make the game more even than expected although the Chiefs should see it through in the end based purely on the fact that they have Kiwi blood coursing through their veins but it should be a real struggle. In my opinion the +10.5 on offer at the moment is golden.
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4 years 10 months ago #20 by Ruan Fourie
Replied by Ruan Fourie on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Phew, Lienert Brown not playing is a big blow. It's possible to get +11.5 at the moment which is something I would probably have gone for if I wasn't on the -6.5 already.
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4 years 10 months ago #21 by Scoembo
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mackem wrote: Brumbies v Bulls preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/br...betting-preview.html

2.5 units, Total points under 55.5 at 17/20 Betway


The Bulls won a scrappy game last week and their forward pack isnt bad but too many unforced errors and Manie Libbok at flyhalf makes the -6.5 Brumbies a real banker. On top of that the Bulls will have that ghost town feeling. You know the one where you think "None of these guys around me are gonna be here next year"
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4 years 10 months ago #22 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Sunwolves v Rebels preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/su...betting-preview.html

2 units Rebels -5.5 points at 0.83 Betway

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 10 months ago #23 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Crusaders v Blues preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/cr...betting-preview.html

1.5 units, Blues +13.5 points at 9/10 BetXchange

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 10 months ago #24 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Waratahs v Jaguares preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/wa...betting-preview.html

2 units Home team win by 1-12 points 19/10 Sunbet

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 10 months ago #25 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
The Handicap, Super Rugby Round 15 preview live on Thursday 23rd May from 21:00




If you wish to comment on the show whilst it’s live, please use this link to our Youtube channel

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 10 months ago #26 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Sharks v Lions preview


goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/sh...betting-preview.html


No Marx for Lions, 3.5 units Sharks -3.5 points 19/20 BetXchange

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 10 months ago #27 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Stormers v Highlanders preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Super-Rugby-2019/st...betting-preview.html

1.5 units Stormers to win by 1-10 points, 24/10 WSB

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 10 months ago #28 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Couch Critic's Super Rugby Round 15 preview, all matches covered

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...ound-15-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 10 months ago #29 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Got some strong fancies for tonights #THEHANDICAP show and all going well will be joined by Coil for his first appearance on the show

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

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4 years 10 months ago - 4 years 10 months ago #30 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
I find the cut tries too high tomorrow so will give it a go

Chiefs vs Reds Under 8.5 tries @ 1.72
Last edit: 4 years 10 months ago by bradie82.

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4 years 10 months ago #31 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
So disappointed guys, we cannot launch the show - Oracle seeing if he can make a plan for us but looks like a cancelation

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

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4 years 10 months ago #32 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Gutted about The Handicap, hope you can get the issue resolved by next week Brent.

My early acca this week was Chiefs, Brumbies & Crusaders all to win @ 2.70

Have also placed the following cap bets:
Chiefs -7
Jags +4
Sharks -1

Also have a suspicion the Crusaders will click back into gear and run all over the Blues, but will hold fire on that for now.

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4 years 10 months ago #33 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Thanks Brad, I was panicking but seems like it was a You Tube or Google Hangouts issue and is working again.

Will do a show at 18h00 this evening on the remaining games

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

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4 years 10 months ago #34 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby

hanrick wrote: Brodie Retallick should be back for the Chiefs this weekend. I'm nervous on backing the Chiefs, but with the Kerevi news and Brodie being back, I'm joining on the -6.5


On the news of Brodie and ALB not playing I have traded out of the above bet.

Under 57.5 match points at 17/20 in the Chiefs vs Reds game

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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4 years 10 months ago #35 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Good to see Hanrick "MiddleMan" Swart in action :woohoo: :silly: :woohoo: :silly: :woohoo: :silly:

Following on the Unders!

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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4 years 10 months ago #36 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Over 47.5 pts @ 5/6 Brum v Bull. Good overs ref, good conditions.

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4 years 10 months ago #37 by Overs_Punter
Replied by Overs_Punter on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Chiefs -6.5 @ 9/10 the main bet for the early kickoff, going against the grain & adding over 54.5 points @ 17/20. Both these teams average defensively coupled with nothing to play for - Gardener in the middle too who I regard as one of the best overs refs.

Brumbies -3.5 @ 0.86/1, Brumbies to win & under 60.5 points 1.55/1 & under 55.5 @ 0.89/1 in the following games.

I see the line for the stormers game is still 55.5 - have lumped - there will not be over 50 points at newlands this whole season - quote will definitely drop at least 5 points by this arvo

SSC

Sharks -30.5 @ 10/11
Boland -24.5 @ 5/6

Double 5/2

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4 years 10 months ago #38 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
all to win acca:

Chiefs
Brumbies
Crusaders
Jaguares
Highlanders
Sharks

14/1

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4 years 10 months ago #39 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
My most confident points play of the round is unders in the Brumbies vs Bulls game. Brumbies defence is excellent. In the last 5 games the most points they have conceded was 21 and that included an intercept try. Very important game for both sides wrt qualification so I expect the defences to be on form.

Brumbies to win and under 50.5 points at 14/10

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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4 years 10 months ago #40 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Overs, Hanrick, May I ask on which bookie you find the following bet

Brumbies to win & under 60.5 points 1.55/1
Brumbies to win and under 50.5 points at 14/10

Those are value bet but guess not available in Europe

Thanks in advance

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4 years 10 months ago #41 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby

bradie82 wrote: Overs, Hanrick, May I ask on which bookie you find the following bet

Brumbies to win & under 60.5 points 1.55/1
Brumbies to win and under 50.5 points at 14/10

Those are value bet but guess not available in Europe

Thanks in advance


Betway, Playabets, Sunbet

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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4 years 10 months ago #42 by Overs_Punter
Replied by Overs_Punter on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
I got on these bets on Monday - had a busy week so didn’t post and subsequently lines have changed but Playabets, betx & betway all had points lines and a few other points exotics from Monday - absolute pleasure.

Stormers & under 60.5 @ 7/4

Stormers to win the SA conference 12/1
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4 years 10 months ago #43 by Northerner
Replied by Northerner on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby

bradie82 wrote: Overs, Hanrick, May I ask on which bookie you find the following bet

Brumbies to win & under 60.5 points 1.55/1
Brumbies to win and under 50.5 points at 14/10

Those are value bet but guess not available in Europe

Thanks in advance


Hey Bradie, Betfair do these type of bets. For example in that game they have Brumbies and under 48.5 @ 17/10
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4 years 10 months ago #44 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby

Northerner wrote:

bradie82 wrote: Overs, Hanrick, May I ask on which bookie you find the following bet

Brumbies to win & under 60.5 points 1.55/1
Brumbies to win and under 50.5 points at 14/10

Those are value bet but guess not available in Europe

Thanks in advance


Hey Bradie, Betfair do these type of bets. For example in that game they have Brumbies and under 48.5 @ 17/10


Thanks Northerner
I ve seen it but quite a gap between 48.5 and 60.5 which has even a better odd

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4 years 10 months ago #45 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
small interest 1st try Cane 22/1 in game1.

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4 years 10 months ago #46 by Ruan Fourie
Replied by Ruan Fourie on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Where are you guys getting points markets on the Stormers game?

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4 years 10 months ago #47 by hanrick
Replied by hanrick on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby

Ruan Fourie wrote: Where are you guys getting points markets on the Stormers game?


Betway

Betway, Playabets and Betxchange had points lines up on Monday already. But just for 3 games.

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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4 years 10 months ago #48 by Ruan Fourie
Replied by Ruan Fourie on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Thanks, I must really sign up with them.

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4 years 10 months ago #49 by bradie82
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
Chiefs over 33.5 @ 1.89

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4 years 10 months ago #50 by alike
Replied by alike on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
HUGE value in Chiefs to score more tries than Reds in the 2nd half.

Chiefs -3.5 try handicap at 1.65 on Betway

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