Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
- Brad Breath
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4 years 10 months ago #51
by Brad Breath
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What a horrendous game.
It would've bust my bet had the Reds gone over, but can't help but feel a bit sorry for them.
Think being held up over the line law is one of the worst in the game - (the attacking team should get another crack)
On the flipside the Chiefs defence & tackle count were epic
It would've bust my bet had the Reds gone over, but can't help but feel a bit sorry for them.
Think being held up over the line law is one of the worst in the game - (the attacking team should get another crack)
On the flipside the Chiefs defence & tackle count were epic
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- Kirky
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4 years 10 months ago #52
by Kirky
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I'd gone all-in on the Chiefs @ -7.5 earlier in the week on news of Kerevi. And didn't have the sense that Hanrick had to cash out. So that's it for me then. Hasta la vista guys, I'm outa here. Cheers, Mike.
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- southpaw
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4 years 10 months ago #53
by southpaw
nice call Hanrick, I had chance to bail @ under 48.5 when seen this post, but left my overs play nervously and clearly misread, expected a bit more from both sides.
Am off to a poor start this weekend, reverse of last week.
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
hanrick wrote: My most confident points play of the round is unders in the Brumbies vs Bulls game. Brumbies defence is excellent. In the last 5 games the most points they have conceded was 21 and that included an intercept try. Very important game for both sides wrt qualification so I expect the defences to be on form.
Brumbies to win and under 50.5 points at 14/10
nice call Hanrick, I had chance to bail @ under 48.5 when seen this post, but left my overs play nervously and clearly misread, expected a bit more from both sides.
Am off to a poor start this weekend, reverse of last week.
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4 years 10 months ago - 4 years 10 months ago #54
by southpaw
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Crusaders win both halves @ evens
have had a decent strike at this, feels excellent value.
in earlier game not overly confident either side, but i see Mafi is back, always been good for an early try. Mafi 1sy @ 18/1.
have had a decent strike at this, feels excellent value.
in earlier game not overly confident either side, but i see Mafi is back, always been good for an early try. Mafi 1sy @ 18/1.
Last edit: 4 years 10 months ago by southpaw.
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- Scoembo
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4 years 10 months ago #55
by Scoembo
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Some interesting stats guys:
The Crusaders have covered all 6 games over the last 2 seasons when home favourites of less than 14
The Blues have failed to cover their last 2 on the road when underdogs of 10+
The Blues have covered 1 of 9 after covering their previous game
The Crusaders have covered all 6 games over the last 2 seasons when home favourites of less than 14
The Blues have failed to cover their last 2 on the road when underdogs of 10+
The Blues have covered 1 of 9 after covering their previous game
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- Overs_Punter
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4 years 10 months ago #56
by Overs_Punter
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Over 56.5 points in Wolves v Rebels game @ 9/10 - 3pm in Tokyo, two teams that play a nice brand of rugby. Gem
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- bradie82
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4 years 10 months ago #57
by bradie82
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Sticking with my early try and think Saders will smash the Blues
Saders try before 20” @ 1.53
Saders over 31.5 @ 1.87
Saders try before 20” @ 1.53
Saders over 31.5 @ 1.87
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4 years 10 months ago #58
by bradie82
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Rebels over 33.5 @ 2.10
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4 years 10 months ago #59
by southpaw
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Quite involved in Saders game, some of below taken yesterday and now this am-
Saders with both halves @ evens
Saders -13.5 @ 8/10
Saders -6.5 ht cap @ 5/6
Saders -6.5 2nd half cap @ 8/10
Saders with both halves @ evens
Saders -13.5 @ 8/10
Saders -6.5 ht cap @ 5/6
Saders -6.5 2nd half cap @ 8/10
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- Pierrebal
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4 years 10 months ago #60
by Pierrebal
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This Rebels match has been awful to watch (not only because I’m on overs) but the number of handling errors and passes into touch from both sides. Don’t understand how it can be that poor in perfect conditions!
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- hanrick
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4 years 10 months ago #61
by hanrick
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Glad I stayed out of the 1st game. Would have done my money.
Main bet Crusaders -12.5 at 9/10, but also Blues under 17.5 points at 0.82/1
Main bet Crusaders -12.5 at 9/10, but also Blues under 17.5 points at 0.82/1
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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4 years 10 months ago #62
by hanrick
There is a massive unders trend currently and I absolutely love it. I was also leaning overs in the Rebels game, but currently find it very tough to bring myself to take an overs bet. Linespeed on D from most sides has improved so much.
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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Pierrebal wrote: This Rebels match has been awful to watch (not only because I’m on overs) but the number of handling errors and passes into touch from both sides. Don’t understand how it can be that poor in perfect conditions!
There is a massive unders trend currently and I absolutely love it. I was also leaning overs in the Rebels game, but currently find it very tough to bring myself to take an overs bet. Linespeed on D from most sides has improved so much.
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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- Overs_Punter
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4 years 10 months ago #63
by Overs_Punter
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Freakish how overs came right there - massive swing to start the day.
Agree with Hanrick - VERY tough to go overs in Super Rugby nowadays & even when the the stars align you likely to sweat on your overs play.
Blues under 2.5 tries @ 15/20
Agree with Hanrick - VERY tough to go overs in Super Rugby nowadays & even when the the stars align you likely to sweat on your overs play.
Blues under 2.5 tries @ 15/20
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4 years 10 months ago #64
by southpaw
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Would love to know what a level stake on unders vs overs on every game would have looked like this season so far, unders surely would have paid handsomely. Is there anywhere where historic total points lines are kept? Anyone keep a spreadsheet?
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4 years 10 months ago #65
by southpaw
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Just to mention I heard on handicap show re Glasgow game that is was on the synthetic surface. It’s actually at Celtic park, so normal grass but usually a well kept surface.
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4 years 10 months ago #66
by Pierrebal
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Unders must have had the upper hand, but not complaining that the Rebels played 80 minutes.
So involved in this game.
Crusaders -6.5 HT
Crusaders -12.5 (early in the week)
Crusaders -14.5 (big voucher bet)
Crusaders over 4.5 tries 15/20
Then thought although the Crusaders defence is good 50 points is low for for NZ game.
Went over 50.5 points 9/10 and then speculative over 57.5 19/10
So involved in this game.
Crusaders -6.5 HT
Crusaders -12.5 (early in the week)
Crusaders -14.5 (big voucher bet)
Crusaders over 4.5 tries 15/20
Then thought although the Crusaders defence is good 50 points is low for for NZ game.
Went over 50.5 points 9/10 and then speculative over 57.5 19/10
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4 years 10 months ago #67
by Pierrebal
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*All motivated through Parsons not starting
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- hanrick
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4 years 10 months ago #68
by hanrick
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50.5 actually looked high to me, but scared of Crusaders so rather went with Blues points. Looks very wet.
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4 years 10 months ago #69
by hanrick
Saders try scored at 19 mins and 49 seconds. You must have loved that Bradie. Well played!
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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bradie82 wrote: Sticking with my early try and think Saders will smash the Blues
Saders try before 20” @ 1.53
Saders over 31.5 @ 1.87
Saders try scored at 19 mins and 49 seconds. You must have loved that Bradie. Well played!
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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4 years 10 months ago #70
by Pierrebal
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Big trouble on the total points. But the Blues are due a yellow.
Went over 30.5 Crusdaders HT
Went over 30.5 Crusdaders HT
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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4 years 10 months ago #71
by ThoughtsOnSports
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Taking Stormers to win and under 51.5 at Sunbet @3.15. Cracking price.
My only play for SS rugby challenge is `Lions +8.5 vs Bulls. Neutral Venue and Lions boast a couple of players with super rugby experience. Bulls missing JT Jackson who has been their top scorer so far.
My only play for SS rugby challenge is `Lions +8.5 vs Bulls. Neutral Venue and Lions boast a couple of players with super rugby experience. Bulls missing JT Jackson who has been their top scorer so far.
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4 years 10 months ago #72
by Pierrebal
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Well done Hanrick, completely missread this one.
Onto Jags over 22.5 points. Last roll of the dice!
Onto Jags over 22.5 points. Last roll of the dice!
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- southpaw
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4 years 10 months ago #73
by southpaw
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Saders killed most punters there.
Need jags +3.5 badly to rescue weekend
Need jags +3.5 badly to rescue weekend
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4 years 10 months ago #74
by Overs_Punter
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Next game looks the toughest game of the weekend from a punting perspective - game important for both sides & nice unders ref in Paul Williams. Hoping for an arm wrestle.
Under 51.5 points at 17/20
Under 51.5 points at 17/20
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- Brad Breath
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4 years 10 months ago #75
by Brad Breath
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Added small play on Jags 1-12 @ 3.50
Main bet is the Jags +4
Main bet is the Jags +4
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4 years 10 months ago #76
by hanrick
Thanks Pierre, but Saders -12.5 was my main bet so a loss on the game
Waratahs under 26.5 points at 17/20 next for me
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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Pierrebal wrote: Well done Hanrick, completely missread this one.
Onto Jags over 22.5 points. Last roll of the dice!
Thanks Pierre, but Saders -12.5 was my main bet so a loss on the game
Waratahs under 26.5 points at 17/20 next for me
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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4 years 10 months ago #77
by bradie82
Thanks Hanrick
You have no idea how much I enjoyed!! I even took a screenshot in case the bookie settled it as lost
Those early tries have been a goldmine so far for me this season and despite odds being slightly low, with more than 80% of winning bets, my bankroll increased significantly. I stopped betting on ML and H because the number of upset is just so high and anything can happen.
Well played on the under, I am still struggling to take as many as you do but recognised it is one of the most valuable approach, especially this week end.
Saying that, its raining in Glasgow and its a final so going with under 4.5 tries @ 2 (Skybet)
Replied by bradie82 on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
hanrick wrote:
bradie82 wrote: Sticking with my early try and think Saders will smash the Blues
Saders try before 20” @ 1.53
Saders over 31.5 @ 1.87
Saders try scored at 19 mins and 49 seconds. You must have loved that Bradie. Well played!
Thanks Hanrick
You have no idea how much I enjoyed!! I even took a screenshot in case the bookie settled it as lost
Those early tries have been a goldmine so far for me this season and despite odds being slightly low, with more than 80% of winning bets, my bankroll increased significantly. I stopped betting on ML and H because the number of upset is just so high and anything can happen.
Well played on the under, I am still struggling to take as many as you do but recognised it is one of the most valuable approach, especially this week end.
Saying that, its raining in Glasgow and its a final so going with under 4.5 tries @ 2 (Skybet)
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4 years 10 months ago #78
by Pierrebal
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Over 22 scraped home and the unders never in doubt. Weekend saving penalty!
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- Northerner
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4 years 10 months ago #79
by Northerner
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@bradie82 what are your thoughts on the French games today?
I’ve had a few bets on the Toulouse game ...
Toulouse 50+ @ 4/1
A few bets on players to score doubles/hat tricks - Kolby, DuPont and Goutiane
Leinster game is a final and wet.
Under 4.5 tries @ evens
0-1 tries 18/1
0 tries 66/1
No team to reach 20 4/1
I’ve had a few bets on the Toulouse game ...
Toulouse 50+ @ 4/1
A few bets on players to score doubles/hat tricks - Kolby, DuPont and Goutiane
Leinster game is a final and wet.
Under 4.5 tries @ evens
0-1 tries 18/1
0 tries 66/1
No team to reach 20 4/1
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4 years 10 months ago #80
by shaft
"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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In the SS Challenge Namibia are resting their bigger name players. Think the Leopards -7.5 is a decent one.
"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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4 years 10 months ago #81
by Pierrebal
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Only a couple bets for me in the next matches.
Stormers v Highlanders over 3.5 penalties 17/20
Both sides desperate for the win.
La Rochelle over 40.5 points, they need a bonus point win to be sure of the Top 6 against a poor Bordeaux at home.
Stormers v Highlanders over 3.5 penalties 17/20
Both sides desperate for the win.
La Rochelle over 40.5 points, they need a bonus point win to be sure of the Top 6 against a poor Bordeaux at home.
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- bradie82
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4 years 10 months ago - 4 years 10 months ago #82
by bradie82
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On the last round of the top 14, few bets I found interesting
Over 5.5 tries La Rochelle @ 1.72
Clermont vs MHR - over 5.5 tries @ 1.90
MHR over 2.5 @ 2.20 (desperate for a bonus point win)
SF over 4.5 tries @ 2 (lower stake as Steyn playing 10)
Might take more when out on all bookies
Adding Nadolo @ 3.25
Over 5.5 tries La Rochelle @ 1.72
Clermont vs MHR - over 5.5 tries @ 1.90
MHR over 2.5 @ 2.20 (desperate for a bonus point win)
SF over 4.5 tries @ 2 (lower stake as Steyn playing 10)
Might take more when out on all bookies
Adding Nadolo @ 3.25
Last edit: 4 years 10 months ago by bradie82.
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4 years 10 months ago #83
by coil
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honda lads , on the stormers gravy train minus .5 and minus 2.5 . huge on unders at 52.5 ...... this is make or break .
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4 years 10 months ago #84
by southpaw
Converting 2 unit acca stake on stormers win, fairly confident sharks will do job, less so Highlanders.
Replied by southpaw on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
southpaw wrote: all to win acca:
Chiefs
Brumbies
Crusaders
Jaguares
Highlanders
Sharks
14/1
Converting 2 unit acca stake on stormers win, fairly confident sharks will do job, less so Highlanders.
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4 years 10 months ago #85
by Brad Breath
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Landers 1-10 @ 3.75
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- hanrick
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4 years 10 months ago #86
by hanrick
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Sharks win and under 50.5 points at 13/10
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4 years 10 months ago #87
by Overs_Punter
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Leinster -3.5 @ 17/20 - think conditions will suit them better than Glasgow. Got nothing for Glasgow’s 10, Hastings, think he’ll really struggle today.
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4 years 10 months ago #88
by bradie82
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Leinster vs Glasgow
No try before 14” @ 1.91 on William Hill
No try before 14” @ 1.91 on William Hill
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4 years 10 months ago #89
by Brad Breath
Followed on this, thanks Bradie.
Was browsing Skybet earlier this week and they had Leinster +4 @ 1.91
Had a go at it, expected it to be voided, but up until now it hasn't.....
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby Week 15 + other rugby
bradie82 wrote: Leinster vs Glasgow
No try before 14” @ 1.91 on William Hill
Followed on this, thanks Bradie.
Was browsing Skybet earlier this week and they had Leinster +4 @ 1.91
Had a go at it, expected it to be voided, but up until now it hasn't.....
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4 years 10 months ago #90
by Overs_Punter
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Hard lines Bradie & Brad. That’s seriously stiff. Two seconds..
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4 years 10 months ago #91
by bradie82
11 second in my favour this morning, 2 against me tonight...been lucky couple of times with my early so just need to accept that one...not a bad day at the end with the top14
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Overs_Punter wrote: Hard lines Bradie & Brad. That’s seriously stiff. Two seconds..
11 second in my favour this morning, 2 against me tonight...been lucky couple of times with my early so just need to accept that one...not a bad day at the end with the top14
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