Rugby World Cup 2019, All Pre-Tournament Bets

They're refusing, citing t and C's on abandonment. I'm in the process of highlighting the unfairness of the presented odds where this eventuality is not covered, seeing as there has been one 0-0 draw in the history of international rugby

It'll make no difference in sure

Crafty Cockney wrote: They're refusing, citing t and C's on abandonment. I'm in the process of highlighting the unfairness of the presented odds where this eventuality is not covered, seeing as there has been one 0-0 draw in the history of international rugby

It'll make no difference in sure

Had the chat with WH this morning and the guy was telling me that because the game did not start, it could not finish and therefore both games cancelled could not be considered as "finish 0-0"

It's a joke. There has been no international 0-0 draws since 1964. None in the pro era.

bradie82 wrote:

Crafty Cockney wrote: They're refusing, citing t and C's on abandonment. I'm in the process of highlighting the unfairness of the presented odds where this eventuality is not covered, seeing as there has been one 0-0 draw in the history of international rugby

It'll make no difference in sure

Had the chat with WH this morning and the guy was telling me that because the game did not start, it could not finish and therefore both games cancelled could not be considered as "finish 0-0"

Got to say I agree with that and it's entirely what I'd expect (unfortunately, as I'm on "any match ending as a draw"). I agree that the 50/1 was rank bad value for any game to finish 0-0 but they would never have offered anything like that if it would have paid out on a cancelled game.

Not sure I'd take it as gospel but Lads and Skybet have confirmed that the cancelled games will have no bearing on tournament totals markets, so good news for unders betters and less so for those who went over. Had an email from SPIN saying that, in accordance with their rules, they will treat the games as 0-0 draws and nothing will be added to the totals for points and tries etc. But, out of fairness to buyers, they will re-book some bets at a lower price to reflect 2 fewer games being played. Not sure this will affect any of the markets I've played in.

On the subject of winning antepost bets not being settled until the end of the tournament, I think that may be the case with most, if not all, firms. So far, any of my winning or losing antepost bets are still showing as open.

Sunbet are also yet to pay out on the over 3.5 red cards. It’s been a successful World Cup for me so far so I’m not fussed about chasing them for the cash, but still, can’t understand how they haven’t realised it’s not paid yet. Shouldn’t have to wait.

The Vann wrote:

harry_rag wrote: If my SA book comes up with the spreads you listed earlier I will be buying the draw at 0.9.

Out of interest, did you get on this market. Intriguing (for a spreads nerd at least) to note that SPIN have classed the three cancelled games as 0-0 draws and added them to the running totals for drawn games and tryless matches but Spreadex clearly haven't counted them so far and are still showing draws as 0.

I'll be delighted in the unlikely event of Lads siding with the SPIN view!

harry_rag wrote:

The Vann wrote:

harry_rag wrote: If my SA book comes up with the spreads you listed earlier I will be buying the draw at 0.9.

Out of interest, did you get on this market. Intriguing (for a spreads nerd at least) to note that SPIN have classed the three cancelled games as 0-0 draws and added them to the running totals for drawn games and tryless matches but Spreadex clearly haven't counted them so far and are still showing draws as 0.

I'll be delighted in the unlikely event of Lads siding with the SPIN view!

Sadly we only have one book left in SA offering spreads and they offered exactly NIL tournament spreads. I was on their site ten times a day until five minutes before the tournament kicked off to short my house, wife and both dogs on the total points market - just never happened. I hope Lads go with the flow and you make a mint.
Incidentally - There is no such thing as spread nerds - The correct terminology is Adrenaline Junkies.

The Vann wrote: Taking Couch's pick England/SA as a straight @ 33/1. Final probably hinges on England beating NZ which means they will start favorites and easy to cover SA at the 11-14/10 mark. Gives you the choice of a 2/3 stake up front or a 50% bigger profit for the same stake if covering the final for a few hours.

@Couch - Should you visit your family in times of economic hardship and need a beer sponsor I am available at short notice

Haha glad you find yourself in a good spot Vann:beer

Nice to get the finalists and Koroibete pays out a bit with Dead Heat rules. Montoya was also a great result for me. Was pretty chuffed with my Mo'unga play but in all honesty Farrell should have been cruising it after that semi so I cant complain too much.

I also have some Eng outrights still in play so all in all a good World Cup which could turn out great if the Poms go all the way - really is going to be a tough battle next weekend between the wallet and the heart...

I see PSTD won Player of the year but can't see who won Player of the Tournament for the World Cup.

Anyone know?

Will post this on here for now -

Long term Lions 2021 tour bet -

Captain = Maro Itoje @ 11/2 with Sunbet.

Not sure the Welsh pair ahead in betting are even sure to make squad let alone starting line-up. Gatland won't choose Farrell, will stick with a forward. Itjoje looks natural captain material and best lock in six nations. I think this is cracking long-term investment.

For posterity, here's how the various markets made up.

harry_rag wrote: Ok, here we go! Spreads part one. Best price spread followed by average and stats from past 4 World Cups (most recent first) and brief thoughts on potential or actual bets.

Total Points : 2550-2575, Ave = 2499.25 (2439 - 2245 - 2478 - 2835)
Thoughts - share the consensus that this is a sell if anything but prefer to bet in other markets. 2196 - should've kept it simple and sold this market!

Total Tries: 305-315, Ave = 290.25 (271 - 262 - 296 - 332)
Thoughts - similar to points, again you're going back to 2003 to find the spread covered. 285 - again would've been a decent sell.

Total Penalty Tries: 9-10, Ave = 5 (6 - 4)
Thoughts - only got stats for 15 and 11, looks a bit high to me barring relevant rule changes but too low a price to be selling at. 8 - was a bit high but not much of an upside to selling.

Total Tryscorer shirts: 3500-3550
Thoughts - no stats and no feel for this one, posted in case of interest. 3239

Total successful penalties: 182-192, Ave = 194.75 (224 - 171 - 178 - 206)
Thoughts: No strong view on this one. 107

Total successful conversions: 226-236, Ave = 207.5 (194 - 171 - 211 - 244)
Thoughts: Already sold this at 230. If the spreads were right about the number of tries then you'd still need the success rate to be slightly higher than it's been over the last 4 tournaments (ave = 71.5%). 107 - A successful sell but not the best option to have picked.

Total drop goals: 7.5-7.25, Ave = 16.25 (8 - 20 - 14 - 23)
Thoughts: already bought at 6.75. Even allowing for the downward trend I don't think there's much downside to a buy at that price. Currently a slight arb on this market. 6 - Optimum strategy here would've been to sell early on when you could pretty much have doubled your money; I let it ride though.

Total missed kicks: 122-132, Ave = 223.25 (152 - 235 - 222 - 284)
Thoughts: already bought at 130. This looks way too low to me, even if some of those stats look iffy (apparently the success rate for drop goals is really low and it would appear teams were pinging them in from all over the shop prior to 2015). If you exclude drop goals you still get an average of 166.5. 113 - Bad choice here, the proportion of missed kicks was ok but there just weren't enough kicks taken.

Total 50-ups: 440-460, Ave = 458.75 (328 - 386 - 474 - 647)
Thoughts: Potential sell if you think the points lines are too high anyway. Treat the stats with caution as I've just compiled them from ESPN while furiously stabbing at a calculator! 199 - Would've been a cracking sell!

Total Ton-ups: 11, Ave = 21.75 (0 - 0 - 21 - 66)
Thoughts: This was 17 to buy or sell when I first posted the early numbers so obviously seen sellers. There are better ways to bet on low points totals but a low risk buy if you do still fancy a blow out or two. There have been just the 3 games seeing >100 points, 1 in 07 and 2 in 03.

0

harry_rag wrote: Part 2!
Unused subs: 49-53 (57 in 2015)
Thoughts: I got a bit excited about this as a potential buy as I was piecing together what stats I could find until I realised that 2015 was the first time 8 subs were allowed. As it was a new development then I suspect teams will be more used to making use of 8 replacements so it's no bet for me. 19 - Glad I reasoned myself out of a buy of this one!

Bookings points: 625-630, ave = 371.25 (555 - 230 - 400 - 300) 480
Yellow cards: 54-55, ave = 34 (53 - 18 - 35 - 30) 28
Red cards: 3.5-4, ave = 1.25 (1 - 2 - 2 - 0) 8
Thoughts: Total bookings points looks like a potential sell in the absence of anything that suggests an upsurge in cards this year. Red cards may be over-stated. I'll be mulling this one over before getting involved. Didn't play; reds went over, the others under.

Total drawn games: 0.75-0.9, ave = 0.75 (0 - 1 - 1 - 1)
Thoughts: I've taken 6/5 for any drawn game with Lads. Not sure it should be odds against. 3 - The spreads counted the cancelled games.

Total games won to nil: 2.96-2.9, ave = 2 (1 - 2 - 4 - 1)
I'm not quite comparing like with like here as Spreadex's market is actually based on 25 points per team scoring 0 so you could get 50 points in the event of a game ending 0-0 (not including abandoned games) but let's ignore that possibility. The Tote go 1/2 for any game to be won to nil and I think that's a good price but I can't quite bring myself to put the hefty bet on that would be required to make it worthwhile at the price. 4 games won to nil

Tryless matches: 0.75-0.95, ave 2 (1 - 3 - 3 - 1)
Thoughts: Not much downside but hardly an exciting prospect as a buy. Might keep any eye out for a fixed odds price that appeals. 3 - the 3 cancelled games were counted.

harry_rag wrote: Final post on spreads, a round up of the other prices I've seen.

Winning distances: 1310-1355 (aggregate of all winning margins) 1160
N Hemisphere/S Hemisphere: 120-140 -2
Biggest winning margin: 91-96 63
Highest scoring game: 105-110 80
Lowest scoring game: 17-19.5 26
Fastest try (seconds): 75-78 90
Fastest drop goal (mins): 24-27 1 - should've followed Vann's suggestion of a sell of this one!
Fastest hat trick (mins): 33-36 21
Highest tries in a match: 15.5-16.5 11
Highest kicked pens in a match: 8.75-9.75 10
Highest shirts in a match: 212-220 139
Highest bookings points in a match: 48-53

45

Brad Breath wrote: A few outrights, mostly few beers level stakes

Wales to win tournament @ 20 (placed before the 6N)

Top try scorer: Bridge @ 29
Top points scorer: Pollard @ 6
Top SA try scorer: Mapimpi @ 7
Top Wales try scorer: Adams @ 6
Top Aus try scorer: Koroibete @ 5

Fiji to reach 1/4s @ 19
Over 3.5 red cards @ 1.91

Lost money on the games throughout the tournament, but did well with long terms.

Anyone know what Adams was for top try? Wish I'd got on

southpaw wrote: Will post this on here for now -

Long term Lions 2021 tour bet -

Captain = Maro Itoje @ 11/2 with Sunbet.

Not sure the Welsh pair ahead in betting are even sure to make squad let alone starting line-up. Gatland won't choose Farrell, will stick with a forward. Itoje looks natural captain material and best lock in six nations. I think this is cracking long-term investment.

Inclined to agree here South - although which Wales pair are you referring to?
(AW Jones is just ahead of Irish lock James Ryan, in UK markets at least).

Gatland is cleary a massive fan of Jones - but he'll be pushing 36 years old by then........ Ryan I'd suggest would be a squad certainty, but as you say Itoje has perhaps stronger leadership qualities.

Itoje @ 6.5 with Unibet