Currie Cup Final, Mitre10Cup week 5, Japan v Boks + other rugby
- Brent Graham
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Away for the weekend so no Currie Cup video but I went Cheetahs -8.5 and have seen -6.5 nd -7.5 in the early betting. More on that later in the week.
The Mire 10 Cup has seen plenty of action and early prices are out, no doubt all of the regulars whether overseas or in SA are getting their early strikes in and will be posting some bets in the forum.
Japan host the Boks this weekend in a RWC warm up and the current line is +17.5
Look forward to your views.
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- hanrick
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- threepeat
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It has been another great punting week, with good focused betting results in the Mitre 10 Cup.
Here is the 3P early best bet (running at 80% success) in the Mitre 10 Cup. It is the Sunday Championship and Ranfurly Shield Challenge game, Otago v Taranaki, picking Taranaki -4.5 @ $1.87. Level of confidence 8 out of 10.
Some Mitre 10 punters, particularly those outside NZ seem to under- rate the Taranaki Bulls. However after holding super charged Premier leaders Tasman to 18-28, those detractors should be silenced
Coached by former NZ sevens player Willie Rickards, a coach on the up and up, he will have a game plan to out muscle and out pace Otago on Sunday afternoon in the covered stadium.
Looks as if we will see the return of Blues 10, Stephen Perofeta in the starting Bulls line up.
Lot of history for Taranaki in Ranfurly Shield success should help counter Otago home crowd advantage.
Looked at Northland for this weeks early pick, but have learned that Ngani Laumape and Rob Thompson are both at Turbo training.
Will now wait on team list and word from BookieDave who must have relatives in the Taniwha.
Cheers 3P
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- hanrick
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threepeat wrote: MITRE 10 CUP WEEK 5
It has been another great punting week, with good focused betting results in the Mitre 10 Cup.
Here is the 3P early best bet (running at 80% success) in the Mitre 10 Cup. It is the Sunday Championship and Ranfurly Shield Challenge game, Otago v Taranaki, picking Taranaki -4.5 @ $1.87. Level of confidence 8 out of 10.
Some Mitre 10 punters, particularly those outside NZ seem to under- rate the Taranaki Bulls. However after holding super charged Premier leaders Tasman to 18-28, those detractors should be silenced
Coached by former NZ sevens player Willie Rickards, a coach on the up and up, he will have a game plan to out muscle and out pace Otago on Sunday afternoon in the covered stadium.
Looks as if we will see the return of Blues 10, Stephen Perofeta in the starting Bulls line up.
Lot of history for Taranaki in Ranfurly Shield success should help counter Otago home crowd advantage.
Looked at Northland for this weeks early pick, but have learned that Ngani Laumape and Rob Thompson are both at Turbo training.
Will now wait on team list and word from BookieDave who must have relatives in the Taniwha.
Cheers 3P
With you on the Bulls this week 3P, but like the other two I posted stronger.
Bulls will have to win this week as they will be losing their next two games against the Steamers and Magpies. Hopefully a win over the Razorbacks gives us better odds on the Steamers next week.
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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- Wies Bang
threepeat wrote: MITRE 10 CUP WEEK 5
It has been another great punting week, with good focused betting results in the Mitre 10 Cup.
Here is the 3P early best bet (running at 80% success) in the Mitre 10 Cup. It is the Sunday Championship and Ranfurly Shield Challenge game, Otago v Taranaki, picking Taranaki -4.5 @ $1.87. Level of confidence 8 out of 10.
Some Mitre 10 punters, particularly those outside NZ seem to under- rate the Taranaki Bulls. However after holding super charged Premier leaders Tasman to 18-28, those detractors should be silenced
Coached by former NZ sevens player Willie Rickards, a coach on the up and up, he will have a game plan to out muscle and out pace Otago on Sunday afternoon in the covered stadium.
Looks as if we will see the return of Blues 10, Stephen Perofeta in the starting Bulls line up.
Lot of history for Taranaki in Ranfurly Shield success should help counter Otago home crowd advantage.
Looked at Northland for this weeks early pick, but have learned that Ngani Laumape and Rob Thompson are both at Turbo training.
Will now wait on team list and word from BookieDave who must have relatives in the Taniwha.
Cheers 3P
I will take the Tasman - 11.5 again
Tasman 58% possession and 3 missed conversions.......just how some of these games work out
Otago' s shield reign should come to an end this weekend (surely Nareki & Koroi can't save them again or can they?!)
BOP - Must be the best performing team , without superstars
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- threepeat
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hanrick wrote:
threepeat wrote: MITRE 10 CUP WEEK 5
It has been another great punting week, with good focused betting results in the Mitre 10 Cup.
Here is the 3P early best bet (running at 80% success) in the Mitre 10 Cup. It is the Sunday Championship and Ranfurly Shield Challenge game, Otago v Taranaki, picking Taranaki -4.5 @ $1.87. Level of confidence 8 out of 10.
Some Mitre 10 punters, particularly those outside NZ seem to under- rate the Taranaki Bulls. However after holding super charged Premier leaders Tasman to 18-28, those detractors should be silenced
Coached by former NZ sevens player Willie Rickards, a coach on the up and up, he will have a game plan to out muscle and out pace Otago on Sunday afternoon in the covered stadium.
Looks as if we will see the return of Blues 10, Stephen Perofeta in the starting Bulls line up.
Lot of history for Taranaki in Ranfurly Shield success should help counter Otago home crowd advantage.
Looked at Northland for this weeks early pick, but have learned that Ngani Laumape and Rob Thompson are both at Turbo training.
Will now wait on team list and word from BookieDave who must have relatives in the Taniwha.
Cheers 3P
With you on the Bulls this week 3P, but like the other two I posted stronger.
Bulls will have to win this week as they will be losing their next two games against the Steamers and Magpies. Hopefully a win over the Razorbacks gives us better odds on the Steamers next week.
Just learned that Josh Ioane has been called into AB squad in Hamilton for Tonga Test due to Mounga injury cover. Upgrading recommendation Taranaki to 10 of 10 Get on it!
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- Kirky
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Do you know where the AB players are ?
Like will Crotty be there for Canterbury again ?
Cheers, kirky
Sorry, got my answer, playing Tonga.
Need to watch the Mitre 10 team sheets
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- threepeat
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Kirky wrote: Hi 3P,
Do you know where the AB players are ?
Like will Crotty be there for Canterbury again ?
Cheers, kirky
Sorry, got my answer, playing Tonga.
Need to watch the Mitre 10 team sheets
Hi Kirky,
AB RWC squad plus Josh Ioane are in Hamilton for the Tonga game.
If you are looking at the Auckland v Canterbury game I can tell you that 108 test AB Owen Franks has made himself available, and as a loyal servant of Canterbury I imagine they will give him the job. I also note that usual starting front row Daniel Lienert-Brown, Brodie McAlister and Siate Tokolahi were not even in the starting line up in the 80 -0 route of the Stags. AB Braynor Ennor was also rested for that game. Hanrick has rated Auckland at $1.70 to win ahead of my own Taranaki -4.5 pick @ $1.87.
Will never bet against a team who won their last game 80-0! Especially not nine time (best guess) champions Canterbury.
Add in two classy AB's to come back in. Remind again what provinces whacky tobacky is legal in South Africa lol.
Taranaki has just moved out to -6.5 with Josh news. Still good value. Get on before it goes to -8.5
Cheers 3P
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threepeat wrote:
Taranaki has just moved out to -6.5 with Josh news. Still good value. Get on before it goes to -8.5
Cheers 3P
Still -4.5 @ 9/10 at BetX for locals.
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- hanrick
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threepeat wrote: [Hanrick has rated Auckland at $1.70 to win ahead of my own Taranaki -4.5 pick @ $1.87.
Will never bet against a team who won their last game 80-0! Especially not nine time (best guess) champions Canterbury.
Add in two classy AB's to come back in. Remind again what provinces whacky tobacky is legal in South Africa lol.
Cheers 3P
Threepeat, whatever I'm smoking, it's working. I'm 4 from 4 with my Mitre10 Cup best bets. Have checked previous threads to see your best bets over the first 4 weeks. I guess with 2 from 4 you're not too much down for the season.
Don't worry about my bets too much, focus on your own bets.
And another tip, don't worry about team sheets too much. Obviously plays a role, but coaching is way more important.
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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- CLrugby
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hanrick wrote:
threepeat wrote: [Hanrick has rated Auckland at $1.70 to win ahead of my own Taranaki -4.5 pick @ $1.87.
Will never bet against a team who won their last game 80-0! Especially not nine time (best guess) champions Canterbury.
Add in two classy AB's to come back in. Remind again what provinces whacky tobacky is legal in South Africa lol.
Cheers 3P
Threepeat, whatever I'm smoking, it's working. I'm 4 from 4 with my Mitre10 Cup best bets. Have checked previous threads to see your best bets over the first 4 weeks. I guess with 2 from 4 you're not too much down for the season.
Don't worry about my bets too much, focus on your own bets.
And another tip, don't worry about team sheets too much. Obviously plays a role, but coaching is way more important.
Guys chill out a bit! It’s not a competition to decide who has the biggest one We are here to help each other and share info and insights.
Happy Monday
@Chris_Lacharge
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- mackem
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Cheetahs v Lions CC Final preview
goodforthegame.co.za/Currie-Cup-2019/fre...betting-preview.html
Will also look out for points lines, want to give it more thought as well but gut feel is this could provide more points than what we have seen in the bulk of the Currie Cup finals.
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- threepeat
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CLrugby wrote:
hanrick wrote:
threepeat wrote: [Hanrick has rated Auckland at $1.70 to win ahead of my own Taranaki -4.5 pick @ $1.87.
Will never bet against a team who won their last game 80-0! Especially not nine time (best guess) champions Canterbury.
Add in two classy AB's to come back in. Remind again what provinces whacky tobacky is legal in South Africa lol.
Cheers 3P
Threepeat, whatever I'm smoking, it's working. I'm 4 from 4 with my Mitre10 Cup best bets. Have checked previous threads to see your best bets over the first 4 weeks. I guess with 2 from 4 you're not too much down for the season.
Don't worry about my bets too much, focus on your own bets.
And another tip, don't worry about team sheets too much. Obviously plays a role, but coaching is way more important.
Guys chill out a bit! It’s not a competition to decide who has the biggest one We are here to help each other and share info and insights.
Happy Monday
Happy to chill CL, but Hanrick CPA has questioned the accounting of my Mitre Cup best early bets.
3P Week 1 Tasman 200% bet W (the purchase of currency bet)
Week 2 Hawkes Bay 75% bet W
Week 3 Canterbury 80% bet L
Week 4 Otago -11.5 100% bet W
Total Success over 80%. and no "bets of the year" on Currie Cup to wipe out my winnings!
Accordingly do not think you are using international accepted accounting principles.
I am standing tall on my best early bet this week TARANAKI -4.5, based on games watched, reasoned judgement, superior coaching, better team, better players.
Not betting on Canterbury in Canterbury v Auckland as it is a 50/ 50 shot at best, though a weeks coaching from Ryan Crotty and the 80-0 win v Stags may have tipped them over the 50/50. If Franks & Ennor on the team sheets
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- BDub
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CLrugby wrote:
hanrick wrote:
threepeat wrote: [Hanrick has rated Auckland at $1.70 to win ahead of my own Taranaki -4.5 pick @ $1.87.
Will never bet against a team who won their last game 80-0! Especially not nine time (best guess) champions Canterbury.
Add in two classy AB's to come back in. Remind again what provinces whacky tobacky is legal in South Africa lol.
Cheers 3P
Threepeat, whatever I'm smoking, it's working. I'm 4 from 4 with my Mitre10 Cup best bets. Have checked previous threads to see your best bets over the first 4 weeks. I guess with 2 from 4 you're not too much down for the season.
Don't worry about my bets too much, focus on your own bets.
And another tip, don't worry about team sheets too much. Obviously plays a role, but coaching is way more important.
Guys chill out a bit! It’s not a competition to decide who has the biggest one We are here to help each other and share info and insights.
Happy Monday
Agreed CL. The bookies are the competition not each other. Thanks for the contributions lads. Looking forward to a hopefully profitable weekend
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- hanrick
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A few guys that's so focussed on other guys' bets. We're betting against the bookmakers, not against each other.
Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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- Brent Graham
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Just to echo some of the thoughts on here that we keep things constructive - the input of the likes of 3Peat and Hanrick is world class but in this game no-one is perfect and what I like is that the guys who post are putting their money where their mouths are.
We will disagree sometimes and debating the reasons why is welcomed but let's do our best to keep from getting personal.
RWC is coming lads - one united force against the bookies!!!
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- threepeat
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An Australian, a Kiwi and a Yarpie are in a bar one night having a beer. All of a sudden the South African drinks his beer, throws his glass in the air, pulls out a gun and shoots the glass to pieces.
"In Seth Efrika our glasses are so cheap that we don't need to drink from the same one twice," he says.
The Kiwi, obviously impressed by this, drinks his beer, throws his glass into the air, pulls out his gun and shoots the glass to pieces.
"Wull mate, in Niw Zulland we have so much sand to make the glasses that we don't need to drink out the same glass either," he says.
The Australian, cool as a Koala, picks up his beer and drinks it, throws his glass in the air, pulls out his gun and shoots the South Arican and Kiwi.
He turns to the astonished barman and says, "In Australia we have so
many bloody South Africans and Kiwis that we don't need to drink with
the same ones twice."
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- Steiner
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I have the form guide after the first 4 rounds as follows:
1.Tasman
2.Taranaki
3. Bop
4. Canterbury
5. Auckland
6. Waikato
7. Wellington
8. Counties
9. Hawkes bay
10. Harbour
11. Otago
12. Northland
13. Manawatu
14. Southland
So going with the above I'm punting round 5 as follows:
Northland board (1 unit)
Southland + no bet
Tasman -17.5 (1 unit)
Waikato -2.5 (3 units)
BOP Board (5 units)
Canterbury board (5 units)
Taranaki -4.5 (10 units) also have 3 units on ht/ft & 1 unit -14.5 but got in early when value was huge. Line now moved to 7.5 but i would still go minus at this level.
Good luck all!
#TheBettingStig
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- Steiner
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CLrugby wrote: By the way on MITRE watch out the weather forecast, it’s pouring down all across NZ for the next 3-4 days. No scrum no win!
Looks like BoP and Otago games will be ok if youcan believe Accuweather.
Heavy rain predicted for Auckland vs Canterbury game.
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Win or lose we booze, the entertainment at die Mystic Boer worth the trip regardless of the result
As you go through life it’s a long, long road. There’ll be joys and sorrows too
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- CLrugby
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Steiner wrote: Laumape confirmed in the starting team for Manawatu and lots of rain predicted for tomorrows match vs Northland. Am switching my unit to Manawatu.
Not fully sold on Manawatu's hype on that one. Yes Laumape is back but he will focus on staying injury free and i don't see him turning Turbo's crap into gold. The horrible weather will probably lead to a low scoring match so if the H keeps going up I will be more likely to take a Northland +12.5 that I can parlay with another bet.
Nothing to big anyway on that bottom league game but GL
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- MrMeeseeks86
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Added either team by 7 or less at 2.70.
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- Kirky
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Does anybody think we can beat the Japs by more than 20 in a warmup game ?
Surely that plus HC is a gimme ?
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- threepeat
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CLrugby wrote:
Steiner wrote: Laumape confirmed in the starting team for Manawatu and lots of rain predicted for tomorrows match vs Northland. Am switching my unit to Manawatu.
Not fully sold on Manawatu's hype on that one. Yes Laumape is back but he will focus on staying injury free and i don't see him turning Turbo's crap into gold. The horrible weather will probably lead to a low scoring match so if the H keeps going up I will be more likely to take a Northland +12.5 that I can parlay with another bet.
Nothing to big anyway on that bottom league game but GL
Firstly, I am a huge Ngani Laumape fan. I would have put him in my AB 31 ahead of ALB, he is a wrecking ball.
However I do not see his return to the Turbos as enough. Also, they lost the inform Jackson Hemopo to injury last weekend.
I have been betting against the Turbos all season, with a big win on Otago last weekend, and am continuing.
Thought Turbos played their best game of the season in the first half last weekend.
Rain is only 1mm an hour during game time, so no problem for Kiwi teams.
Like the look of Sam Nock and Jack Debreczeni in the Taniwha spine, and ability to kick away from Laumape.
Turbos are favourites with the bookies due to $ coming for Laumape.
Noted that Northland are on a four day turn around and Turbos 5 days.
Turbos shot their load last weekend. Taniwha have the better Coach, better team, better culture and have played better rugby all season.
Betting Northland +5.5 5 of 10 units. 1.5 units HTH @ $2.55. Following CL with 1 unit into 13+ double parlay
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- threepeat
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Kirky wrote:
Guys,
Does anybody think we can beat the Japs by more than 20 in a warmup game ?
Surely that plus HC is a gimme ?
Hi Kirky,
The line @ tab nz is -18.5, and I think the bookies are on to it (no gimme).
Tony Brown was recently on the Breakdown Rugby Show, and was talking about building on Eddie Jones legacy with a speed & fitness game. Kumagaya Stadium is sold out and forecast for Friday is 35% and 67% humidity. I have no doubt that Bok forward power will prevail but its going to be hard hard yakker in 35%, (thats very hot in Kiwi rugby) and home team will handle it better. Brave Blossoms will fight tooth and nail for 80+ mins or longer! Expect to see a couple of Jap tries in last 20 mins to make the score somewhere near bookie predictions. Blossoms ran Fiji ragged in the Pacific Cup, and that is no easy feat.
Joseph & Brown won a Super title with a no name forward pack when in charge of the Highlanders. "Downtown" Tony Brown has a box of back moves / tricks equal to our best attack/backs coach - Wayne Smith. Brown is expected to align himself with either the Gatland of Razor bid (or both) for next AB Coaching Team.
Looking to back Japan on the line in Japan v Scotland in RWC. Cheers 3P
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- Kirky
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As you say 3P, the coaching...
I think our guys already know their starting lineup for opening game against ABs, so will be thinking injuries. They will for sure still want to win, just not as passionately as the Japs. Also heat, full-house home crowd... The Nips are going to be ferocious. And I'm expecting them to give us a shock, and really make us work for it.
GL everyone
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- BDub
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My other reasoning is that Rassie will know that if you cannot beat Japan by 15+ you won’t beat NZ/ENG. Rassie will want to send a message and get his troops in battle mode. Steve Hansen has done the same with his selection against Tonga.
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- Steiner
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Week 1
Bay of Plenty v Otago 50-7
Tauranga Domain, Tauranga
15: Chase Tiatia 14: Emoni Narawa 13: Joe Webber 12: Mathew Skipwith-Garland 11: Fa’asiu Fuatai 10: Dan Hollinshead 9: Richard Judd 8: Abraham Papali’i 7: Mitchell Karpik 6: Hugh Blake 5: Baden Wardlaw 4: Aaron Carroll 3: Jeff Thwaites 2: Nathan Harris 1: Aidan Ross
RESERVES: Kurt Eklund, Tom McHugh, Tevita Mafileo, Hoani Matenga, Ajay Lafaele-Mua, Luke Campbell, Jason Robertson, Pryor Collier
Week 2
Bay of Plenty v Waikato 40-14
Rotorua International Stadium
1: Aidan Ross 2: Nathan Harris 3: Ross Geldenhuys 4: Aaron Carroll 5: Alex Ainley 6: Hugh Blake 7: Mitchell Karpik 8: Hoani Matenga 9: Richard Judd 10: Dan Hollinshead 11: Fa'asiu Fuatai 12: Mathew Skipwith-Garland 13: Joe Webber 14: Joseva Ravouvou 15: Chase Tiatia
Reserves: Nathan Vella, Tom McHugh, Jeff Thwaites, Baden Wardlaw, Ajay Lafaele-Mua, Luke Campbell, Jason Robertson, Emoni Narawa
Week 3
Auckland v Bay of Plenty 19-13
Eden Park, Auckland
1: Aidan Ross 2: Nathan Harris 3: Jeff Thwaites 4: Aaron Carroll 5: Alex Ainley 6: Hugh Blake 7: Mitchell Karpik 8: Abraham Papali’i 9: Richard Judd 10: Jason Robertson 11: Pryor Collier 12: Dan Hollinshead 13: Mathew Skipwith-Garland 14: Emoni Narawa 15: Chase Tiatia
RESERVES: Kurt Eklund, Tom McHugh, Mafileo Tevita, Baden Wardlaw, Ajay Lafaele-Mua, Leroy Carter, Lalomilo Lalomilo, Joseva Ravouvou
Week 4
North Harbour v Bay of Plenty 19-27
North Harbour Stadium
1: Aidan Ross 2: Kurt Eklund 3: Ross Geldenhuys 4: Alex Ainley 5: Baden Wardlaw 6: Hugh Blake 7: Mitchell Karpik 8: Ajay Lafaele-Mua 9: Richard Judd 10: Dan Hollinshead 11: Fa’asiu Fuatai 12: Lalomilo Lalomilo 13: Joe Webber 14: Emoni Narawa 15: Chase Tiatia
RESERVES: Nathan Vella, Mafileo Tevita, Jeff Thwaites, Aaron Carroll, Hoani Matenga, Leroy Carter, Kaleb Trask, Joseva Ravouvou
Week 5
Bay of Plenty v Wellington
Rotorua International Stadium
1: Aidan Ross 2: Nathan Vella 3: Ross Geldenhuys 4: Aaron Carroll 5: Baden Wardlaw 6 Hugh Blake 7: Mitchell Karpik 8: Ajay Lafaele-Mua 9: Richard Judd 10 Caleb Trask 11 Fa’asiu Fuatai 12 Dan Hollinshead 13: Joe Webber 14: Emoni Narawa 15: Chase Tiatia
Reserves: Kurt Eklund, Tevita Mafileo, Jeff Thwaites, Hoani Matenga, Abraham Papali’I, Leroy Carter, Cole Forbes, Matt Skipwith-Garland
#TheBettingStig
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- mackem
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goodforthegame.co.za/RWC-2019/japan-v-so...betting-preview.html
0.5 unit Marx 1st try scorer at 10/1 and 3 units Marx anytime try scorer at 21/20 at WSB
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- Quill
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Bet 1: Northland +6.5 @1.80
Bet 2: Northland over 2.5 tries @1.77
Bet 3: Northland over 20.5 points @1.87
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- threepeat
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Quill wrote: Manawatu vs Northland
Bet 1: Northland +6.5 @1.80
Bet 2: Northland over 2.5 tries @1.77
Bet 3: Northland over 20.5 points @1.87
Northland triple, extremely well done Quill.
Post us tomorrows game! Cheers 3P
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- Geros
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Was on Northland +5.5 needed a good win after a couple of bad weekends.
Need to get back to winning ways..every bet from now on I will be betting on the opposite of what I actually want to.
Hope my bad luck continues ha ha
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If you wish to comment on the show whilst it’s live please use this link to our Youtube channel
Please note, no GG show this evening, will be back next week.
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- Steiner
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Geros wrote: Heartbreak!!!
Was on Northland +5.5 needed a good win after a couple of bad weekends.
Need to get back to winning ways..every bet from now on I will be betting on the opposite of what I actually want to.
Hope my bad luck continues ha ha
Havent we all been there
Im switching my tasman bet to counties +. Forecast very wet and windy. Counties only have their scrum going for them but that should help them tomorrow.
#TheBettingStig
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- southpaw
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Strong side picked, looking for that one big home performance that other Six nations teams have done already before RWC.
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- BDub
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- BDub
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BDub wrote: english.kyodonews.net/news/2019/09/e5231...want-redemption.html
Interesting by Rich Freeman. Feeling is that Boks won’t be Japan’s focus.
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- Quill
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Bet 1: Hawke's Bay -26.5 @1.85
Bet 2: Hawke's Bay over 40.5 points @1.85
The weather shows rain in Napier, but I lost too many bets going unders and plus handicaps on account of rain.
I was once at a Super Rugby match, it was pouring down and I was watching in disbelief how the tries and conversions kept coming.
And anyway, there's too big a difference between these two teams.
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- southpaw
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- Brent Graham
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- southpaw
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Brent Graham wrote: Just sent Newsletter out
Under 65.5 at Sportingbet - wow
hadn't seen newsletter before my bet Brent so hopefully a good sign on alignment. I can't get on at SB so will have to take the 63.5, which i still think is a great line for unders. The humidity should make ball slippery and looking at video of captains run it was lifting up on just running!!
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- hanrick
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hanrick wrote: Tasman win and over 48.5 points at 23/20
Weather prediction I checked was horribly wrong. Bucketing down and in deep trouble here.
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