Rugby World Cup - Pool matches 30 Sep - 06 Oct, Pro 14 + other
- bradie82
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@ Brad - I m at work luckily and in a meeting so could not break anything or scream at the French but it would have been a different story at home
For next game, not sure what to expect so going with Rieko first tryscorer @ 8 (odd boost by WH)
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- Northerner
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- Ruan Fourie
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- bradie82
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- Zambusta
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Ruan Fourie wrote: I can't believe that the All Blacks couldn't score in the last 20 minutes. Disappointing betting day for me.
That's always the danger with these super big caps...tough luck Ruan
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- Sunshine Ace
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I agree on semi-upsets, but being about 4-6 points behind the log leaders, at some point you will have to call the upsets to have any chance of catching them but it might still be too early for that. For today, if you had gone with both the Pregame handicaps it would have given you 2 Win points, 1 MP, and a TDM of 5, (given the All Blacks should have scored at least 14+ more points, but I will leave that to conspiracy theory guys on Reddit).
Tomorrow's matches, looking at points on the log, days between games, and previews, I think the smart call is :
Fiji by 7 (Handicap -7.5) (Should bounce back after the Uruguay defeat, 8 days rest vs 4 days rest for Georgia)
Ireland by 45 - covering the spread from 40 - 50 ( Handicap - 54.5) they will want to show that they can score lots of tries and play well, but Russia has had 5 more days rest than Ireland, which is why I am going lower than the Handicap.
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- Brent Graham
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It also depends on your group size - in smaller groups the margin point is easier to win (and you don't tie with so many) and in a pool like Putyourmoney when the bookies are close so are half the players
In Super Rugby I finished 18th out of 55 in our pool but cruised home in a 14 man pool ahead of a guy who beat me in our pool.
Generally staying around the bookies line not a bad tactic though
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- bradie82
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Small play on under 10.5 tries @ 1.78 on 888
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- LiveLovePunt
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Also taken a few speculative plays on top Ireland tryscorer in the tournament (all scorers currently on 1 try):
Bundee aki (0 tries): 66/1
Rignrose (1 try): 6.5/1
Conway (1 try): 3/1
All at Hollywood bets
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- R3V3R3NT_
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- southpaw
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- hanrick
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hanrick wrote:
hanrick wrote: Two confident handicap picks for me this week. USA +25.5 at 10/11 vs France and Italy +29.5 at 0.89/1 vs South Africa.
Another one I like this week. Georgia +9.5 at 9/10 and 5/2 to win the game. Prediction is for rain during the game and the stadium is very open. Weather will play right into Georgia's forwards' hands and will not suit Fiji's style.
Have added under 48.5 total points in Georgia game and under 66.5 total points in Ireland game
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- Brent Graham
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Preview South Africa v Italy
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- Brent Graham
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- kompos
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- Brent Graham
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- bradie82
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Georgia to score 1 or 2 tries @1.72 (sky)
Georgia over 10.5 @ 2 (888)
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- hanrick
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- southpaw
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Early treble down for weekend -
Aus -50.5
Samoa +20.5
NZ -70.5
5/1
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- Pierrebal
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What I got from that is that even the All Blacks struggle with the slippery ball and that large handicaps are difficult to cover. 10 minutes of the minnow hanging onto the ball and disrupting your ball and suddenly the minus needs 4 tries in 20 minutes.
First half under 32.5 @ 1/1
Full time under 67 @ 9/10 and smaller interest on
Russia +53.5.
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- bradie82
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Small play on
First try after 7" @ 1.91
First yellow Russia @ 1.80
Both on WH
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- Bookie Basher
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bradie82 wrote: Pierre, which book offers those odds please?
Small play on
First try after 7" @ 1.91
First yellow Russia @ 1.80
Both on WH
WSB currently offer those markets at those lines
Ireland vs Russia - Handicap 2019-10-03 12:15:00
9/10 Ireland ( -53.5 )
9/10 Russia ( +53.5 )
Ireland vs Russia - First Half Points 2019-10-03 12:15:00
1/1 Under 32.5
8/10 Over 32.5
Ireland vs Russia - Total Points 2019-10-03 12:15:00
9/10 Under 67.5
9/10 Over 67.5
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- Pierrebal
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- Bookie Basher
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- Brad Breath
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Russia +54 @ 1.91 placed earlier this week with Lads
Under 62.5 @ 1.80 (missed the value on this) with Bwin
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- Tarka
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- Tarka
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Tarka wrote: I'm going with Russia "no try scorer" at 2.4 to 1 at WSB. Got 14to10 on Canada no try scorer yesterday against the All Blacks.
Will NEVER post something on here before i don't get my bet on first. They've shortened it from 2.4 to 1 to 12to10 i the space of 5 minutes. My own fault, but won't make that mistake again. There's WSB cunts lurking on this site.
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- mackem
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- Pierrebal
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Pierrebal wrote: I was on the All Blacks minus yesterday and still fuming. Today's game got me back on track but still way down after that fumble.
What I got from that is that even the All Blacks struggle with the slippery ball and that large handicaps are difficult to cover. 10 minutes of the minnow hanging onto the ball and disrupting your ball and suddenly the minus needs 4 tries in 20 minutes.
First half under 32.5 @ 1/1
Full time under 67 @ 9/10 and smaller interest on
Russia +53.5.
Absolutely poor performance from Ireland, Russia tackled their hearts out though. Happy to be on the right side of a result for a change!
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- Pierrebal
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Fancy Samoa to turn things around and perhaps catch Japan with a hangover:
Samoa +19.5
Samoa win 8/1
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- mackem
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Brent Graham is joined by rugby punters @HDiemont @HanrickSwart and @BrendonWessels as they preview the weekends Rugby World Cup matches with focus on South Africa v Italy
If you wish to comment on the show whilst it is live please use this link to our Youtube channel
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- Northerner
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Also gone first 7/1, double 2/1, hat trick 15/2
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- LiveLovePunt
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- Northerner
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LiveLovePunt wrote: Hi Northerner, please could you let me know on which site you found this gold dust?
Betfred in the UK. Believe the price has changed now though unfortunately
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- Tarka
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- Tarka
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- Tarka
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- Tarka
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Tarka wrote: Italy u1.5 tries at 9to10 a college fund bet.....biggest bet of the world cup thus far
Aaaaand it shortened to 8to10, hahaha
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- Northerner
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- threepeat
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Exotic play paying $4.00 tab nz
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- R3V3R3NT_
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Pierrebal wrote: I was on the All Blacks minus yesterday and still fuming. Today's game got me back on track but still way down after that fumble.
What I got from that is that even the All Blacks struggle with the slippery ball and that large handicaps are difficult to cover. 10 minutes of the minnow hanging onto the ball and disrupting your ball and suddenly the minus needs 4 tries in 20 minutes.
First half under 32.5 @ 1/1
Full time under 67 @ 9/10 and smaller interest on
Russia +53.5.
Spot on analysis thanks I ended up selling right down to under 48.5 @ $4
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- threepeat
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I have had a listen to a delayed version of the panel on the Italy v Boks game. How is that four top rugby pickers turn to custard when it comes to betting on Springbok outcomes. They got it wrong v the mighty AB's and they are wrong again for tonights game, other than the call on points (small investment in the -51.5 total points).
Panel talks about a potential banana skin, decent / not bad Italian rugby. Italy are the # 12 team in the world, have not beaten a good team in years, Italy have played only rubbish teams in the RWC. No amount of consulting from Wayne Smith can save them!
Betting large South Africa -10.5 & -11.5 half time result v Italy @ $1.80 & $1.92, respectively. Ball is usually dry for the first 20 minutes and SA pack will dominate and get the job done early. They beat the AB's for the first 20! Will take Italy 20 to realize they are playing a serious contender. SA cannot afford to leave outcome to the second half. GO THE BOKS! Cheers 3P
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- bradie82
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Italy has been rubbish in the last 6 Nations, catastrophic in the friendly game, even vs a poor French team, and I did not see anything amazing against Namibia and Canada… now the Boks are coming and this is another level I reckon. No huge amount involved but taking:
Boks over 4.5 tries @ 1.71
Boks R35 @ 1.57
and will wait for special odds on skybet and WH to see if I take anything else
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- Pierrebal
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Having said that, I'm with you on this match. Italy only won 3 games in the last 18 months, Canada, Georgia, Japan - latter with really small margins and they are past their prime of 2016. Parisse is old, only playing him for sentimental value, their loose trio in the first game was imo their best.
Italy don't offer much on attack and if they plan to take on South Africa up front, and down the middle, or with kicks, they will end second best by a long way. SA's 5/2 split, starting Bongi and in-form Lood will blunt any forward effort the Italians bring.
My bets (9/10 lines at the time)
SA - 28.5 (took this way too early in the week but O well)
SA over 38 points
SA over 17.5 points halftime
SA - 13.5 second half handicap.
I think the second half handicap is so good and I'm adding to that as soon as my rather unexpected Proteas first session winnings pays out!
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- Brent Graham
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Australia v Uruguay preview - going for the big minus
Japan v Samoa Preview - I am with the likes of Hnarick and Pierrebal on the plus
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- hanrick
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- shaft
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"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- mackem
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- southpaw
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Total points 41-50 @ 3/1
1st try Mbonanbi 10/1
MOM Pollard 6/1
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- Couch Critic
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Italy +14.5 first Half
Then saw Boks under 2.5 first half tries so added that
Also a nibble First Scoring Play - SA Penalty @ 28/10
Italy under 0.5 tries @ 9/10 (moved to 8/11)
A free scoring game with Boks starting fast and I'm screwed big time!
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