Rugby World Cup - Pool matches 30 Sep - 06 Oct, Pro 14 + other

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4 years 5 months ago #51 by bradie82
Lucky final for me I must be honest but despite France being crap as they know how to be, the ref was a disgrace allowing early push in scrum, side entry in ruck, high tackle.

@ Brad - I m at work luckily and in a meeting so could not break anything or scream at the French but it would have been a different story at home :D

For next game, not sure what to expect so going with Rieko first tryscorer @ 8 (odd boost by WH)

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4 years 5 months ago #52 by Northerner
Decent sized bet on Frizzell anytime @ 5/6 and double @ 7/2

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4 years 5 months ago #53 by Ruan Fourie
I can't believe that the All Blacks couldn't score in the last 20 minutes. Disappointing betting day for me.

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4 years 5 months ago #54 by bradie82
Skybet has Radradra @ 2.88 anytime tryscorer while its 1.80 elsewhere so going with it

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4 years 5 months ago #55 by Zambusta

Ruan Fourie wrote: I can't believe that the All Blacks couldn't score in the last 20 minutes. Disappointing betting day for me.


That's always the danger with these super big caps...tough luck Ruan :(

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4 years 5 months ago #56 by Sunshine Ace
Thanks Couch, Appreciate the feedback,

I agree on semi-upsets, but being about 4-6 points behind the log leaders, at some point you will have to call the upsets to have any chance of catching them but it might still be too early for that. For today, if you had gone with both the Pregame handicaps it would have given you 2 Win points, 1 MP, and a TDM of 5, (given the All Blacks should have scored at least 14+ more points, but I will leave that to conspiracy theory guys on Reddit).

Tomorrow's matches, looking at points on the log, days between games, and previews, I think the smart call is :
Fiji by 7 (Handicap -7.5) (Should bounce back after the Uruguay defeat, 8 days rest vs 4 days rest for Georgia)
Ireland by 45 - covering the spread from 40 - 50 ( Handicap - 54.5) they will want to show that they can score lots of tries and play well, but Russia has had 5 more days rest than Ireland, which is why I am going lower than the Handicap.

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4 years 5 months ago #57 by Brent Graham
Further thoughts on the SuperBru

It also depends on your group size - in smaller groups the margin point is easier to win (and you don't tie with so many) and in a pool like Putyourmoney when the bookies are close so are half the players

In Super Rugby I finished 18th out of 55 in our pool but cruised home in a 14 man pool ahead of a guy who beat me in our pool.

Generally staying around the bookies line not a bad tactic though

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4 years 5 months ago #58 by bradie82
Ireland vs Russia
Small play on under 10.5 tries @ 1.78 on 888

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4 years 5 months ago #59 by LiveLovePunt
Taken under 67.5 match points in the Ireland v Russia game.

Also taken a few speculative plays on top Ireland tryscorer in the tournament (all scorers currently on 1 try):

Bundee aki (0 tries): 66/1
Rignrose (1 try): 6.5/1
Conway (1 try): 3/1

All at Hollywood bets

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4 years 5 months ago #60 by R3V3R3NT_
The half time lines seem to be the way to go with the bigger caps. I haven't lost a half time bet yet. The big guns are clearly firing against minnows early then pulling players and cruising to the finish. And competitive teams are holding their own at least to the half time mark.

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4 years 5 months ago #61 by southpaw
Fiji over 3.5 tries @ 10/11

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4 years 5 months ago #62 by hanrick

hanrick wrote:

hanrick wrote: Two confident handicap picks for me this week. USA +25.5 at 10/11 vs France and Italy +29.5 at 0.89/1 vs South Africa.


Another one I like this week. Georgia +9.5 at 9/10 and 5/2 to win the game. Prediction is for rain during the game and the stadium is very open. Weather will play right into Georgia's forwards' hands and will not suit Fiji's style.


Have added under 48.5 total points in Georgia game and under 66.5 total points in Ireland game

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4 years 5 months ago #63 by Brent Graham
Boks v Italy - kicking myself for not taking the +28.5 and grabbing 8/10 +27.5 Italy while still around

Preview South Africa v Italy

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4 years 5 months ago #64 by Brent Graham
Just seen +28.5 at WSB - not sure if I missed it or line has moved but will be taking more of Italy there

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4 years 5 months ago #65 by kompos
Hollywood still has Italy +30.5

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4 years 5 months ago #66 by Brent Graham
Geez it was late last night when I did that preview - must have been half asleep - thanks Kompos

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4 years 5 months ago #67 by bradie82
small play HT

Georgia to score 1 or 2 tries @1.72 (sky)
Georgia over 10.5 @ 2 (888)

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4 years 5 months ago #68 by hanrick
Bad read. Well played Fiji backers

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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4 years 5 months ago #69 by southpaw
Stiff Hanrick. Fiji played with a great attitude today. I think Wales will be tested in final game under roof v Fiji. Will be all over biggest Fiji plus.

Early treble down for weekend -

Aus -50.5
Samoa +20.5
NZ -70.5

5/1

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4 years 5 months ago - 4 years 5 months ago #70 by Pierrebal
I was on the All Blacks minus yesterday and still fuming. Today's game got me back on track but still way down after that fumble.

What I got from that is that even the All Blacks struggle with the slippery ball and that large handicaps are difficult to cover. 10 minutes of the minnow hanging onto the ball and disrupting your ball and suddenly the minus needs 4 tries in 20 minutes.

First half under 32.5 @ 1/1
Full time under 67 @ 9/10 and smaller interest on
Russia +53.5.

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Last edit: 4 years 5 months ago by Pierrebal.
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4 years 5 months ago #71 by bradie82
Pierre, which book offers those odds please?

Small play on
First try after 7" @ 1.91
First yellow Russia @ 1.80
Both on WH

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4 years 5 months ago - 4 years 5 months ago #72 by Bookie Basher

bradie82 wrote: Pierre, which book offers those odds please?

Small play on
First try after 7" @ 1.91
First yellow Russia @ 1.80
Both on WH


WSB currently offer those markets at those lines

Ireland vs Russia - Handicap 2019-10-03 12:15:00
9/10 Ireland ( -53.5 )
9/10 Russia ( +53.5 )

Ireland vs Russia - First Half Points 2019-10-03 12:15:00
1/1 Under 32.5
8/10 Over 32.5

Ireland vs Russia - Total Points 2019-10-03 12:15:00
9/10 Under 67.5
9/10 Over 67.5
Last edit: 4 years 5 months ago by Bookie Basher.
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4 years 5 months ago #73 by Pierrebal
Took those bets with WSB this morning.

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4 years 5 months ago #74 by Bookie Basher
Now total points adjusted from 67.5 to 62.5 almost immediately after said bookie.....Hmmm

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4 years 5 months ago #75 by Brad Breath
Smalls on:

Russia +54 @ 1.91 placed earlier this week with Lads

Under 62.5 @ 1.80 (missed the value on this) with Bwin

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4 years 5 months ago #76 by Tarka
I'm going with Russia "no try scorer" at 2.4 to 1 at WSB. Got 14to10 on Canada no try scorer yesterday against the All Blacks.

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4 years 5 months ago #77 by Tarka

Tarka wrote: I'm going with Russia "no try scorer" at 2.4 to 1 at WSB. Got 14to10 on Canada no try scorer yesterday against the All Blacks.


Will NEVER post something on here before i don't get my bet on first. They've shortened it from 2.4 to 1 to 12to10 i the space of 5 minutes. My own fault, but won't make that mistake again. There's WSB cunts lurking on this site.

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4 years 5 months ago #78 by mackem
Couch Critic's preview and plays for Boks v Italy

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...betting-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 5 months ago #79 by Pierrebal

Pierrebal wrote: I was on the All Blacks minus yesterday and still fuming. Today's game got me back on track but still way down after that fumble.

What I got from that is that even the All Blacks struggle with the slippery ball and that large handicaps are difficult to cover. 10 minutes of the minnow hanging onto the ball and disrupting your ball and suddenly the minus needs 4 tries in 20 minutes.

First half under 32.5 @ 1/1
Full time under 67 @ 9/10 and smaller interest on
Russia +53.5.


Absolutely poor performance from Ireland, Russia tackled their hearts out though. Happy to be on the right side of a result for a change!

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4 years 5 months ago #80 by Pierrebal
Early doors:

Fancy Samoa to turn things around and perhaps catch Japan with a hangover:
Samoa +19.5
Samoa win 8/1

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4 years 5 months ago #81 by mackem
Thursday night, live @20:30 The Handicap

Brent Graham is joined by rugby punters @HDiemont @HanrickSwart and @BrendonWessels as they preview the weekends Rugby World Cup matches with focus on South Africa v Italy



If you wish to comment on the show whilst it is live please use this link to our Youtube channel

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 5 months ago #82 by Northerner
A short price, but have had a good bet on Fainga’a to score anytime @ 4/6. I just can’t see Australia not going to the driving maul early doors, and when that happens in a game he usually scores.

Also gone first 7/1, double 2/1, hat trick 15/2

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4 years 5 months ago #83 by LiveLovePunt
Hi Northerner, please could you let me know on which site you found this gold dust?

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4 years 5 months ago #84 by Northerner

LiveLovePunt wrote: Hi Northerner, please could you let me know on which site you found this gold dust?


Betfred in the UK. Believe the price has changed now though unfortunately

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4 years 5 months ago #85 by Tarka
Have to follow it again. Italy to score no try at 33to10, bet is on!!!!!!!Unts.....

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4 years 5 months ago #86 by Tarka

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4 years 5 months ago #87 by Tarka
Italy u1.5 tries at 9to10 a college fund bet.....biggest bet of the world cup thus far

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4 years 5 months ago #88 by Tarka

Tarka wrote: Italy u1.5 tries at 9to10 a college fund bet.....biggest bet of the world cup thus far


Aaaaand it shortened to 8to10, hahaha

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4 years 5 months ago #89 by Northerner
SA to score 2+ tries in each half 13/10 paddypower

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4 years 5 months ago - 4 years 5 months ago #90 by threepeat
Cheslin Kolbe to Score a Try & South Africa Win by 30 - 50 Points

Exotic play paying $4.00 tab nz
Last edit: 4 years 5 months ago by threepeat.

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4 years 5 months ago #91 by R3V3R3NT_

Pierrebal wrote: I was on the All Blacks minus yesterday and still fuming. Today's game got me back on track but still way down after that fumble.

What I got from that is that even the All Blacks struggle with the slippery ball and that large handicaps are difficult to cover. 10 minutes of the minnow hanging onto the ball and disrupting your ball and suddenly the minus needs 4 tries in 20 minutes.

First half under 32.5 @ 1/1
Full time under 67 @ 9/10 and smaller interest on
Russia +53.5.


Spot on analysis thanks I ended up selling right down to under 48.5 @ $4

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4 years 5 months ago #92 by threepeat
South Africa suffered their first ever loss to Italy just three years ago, going down 20-18 in Florence. The Springboks have won all of the other 13 encounters, including the most recent one - a 35-6 triumph in 2017. Friday’s game will be their first clash at a RWC. Interestingly the margin opened at @28.5, exactly the same as the 2017 result. Also interesting is that Italy have not beaten a tier 1 nation since that game in Florence against the Boks. Italy loses by an average of 26 points to tier 1 nations.

I have had a listen to a delayed version of the panel on the Italy v Boks game. How is that four top rugby pickers turn to custard when it comes to betting on Springbok outcomes. They got it wrong v the mighty AB's and they are wrong again for tonights game, other than the call on points (small investment in the -51.5 total points).

Panel talks about a potential banana skin, decent / not bad Italian rugby. Italy are the # 12 team in the world, have not beaten a good team in years, Italy have played only rubbish teams in the RWC. No amount of consulting from Wayne Smith can save them!

Betting large South Africa -10.5 & -11.5 half time result v Italy @ $1.80 & $1.92, respectively. Ball is usually dry for the first 20 minutes and SA pack will dominate and get the job done early. They beat the AB's for the first 20! Will take Italy 20 to realize they are playing a serious contender. SA cannot afford to leave outcome to the second half. GO THE BOKS! Cheers 3P
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4 years 5 months ago #93 by bradie82
I tend to agree with 3P on the Boks game.
Italy has been rubbish in the last 6 Nations, catastrophic in the friendly game, even vs a poor French team, and I did not see anything amazing against Namibia and Canada… now the Boks are coming and this is another level I reckon. No huge amount involved but taking:

Boks over 4.5 tries @ 1.71
Boks R35 @ 1.57

and will wait for special odds on skybet and WH to see if I take anything else

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4 years 5 months ago #94 by Pierrebal
Interesting take Threepeat, I think over the years South Africa has let us down more than once and rarely put teams away (exception of the Argies in Argentina earlier this year) and it being a World Cup perhaps sway the guys to the plus today. Its a 9/10 for a reason!

Having said that, I'm with you on this match. Italy only won 3 games in the last 18 months, Canada, Georgia, Japan - latter with really small margins and they are past their prime of 2016. Parisse is old, only playing him for sentimental value, their loose trio in the first game was imo their best.

Italy don't offer much on attack and if they plan to take on South Africa up front, and down the middle, or with kicks, they will end second best by a long way. SA's 5/2 split, starting Bongi and in-form Lood will blunt any forward effort the Italians bring.

My bets (9/10 lines at the time)
SA - 28.5 (took this way too early in the week but O well)
SA over 38 points
SA over 17.5 points halftime
SA - 13.5 second half handicap.

I think the second half handicap is so good and I'm adding to that as soon as my rather unexpected Proteas first session winnings pays out!

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4 years 5 months ago #95 by Brent Graham
Divided opinion on the Italy handicap and fair enough that is what handicaps are meant to do.


Australia v Uruguay preview - going for the big minus

Japan v Samoa Preview - I am with the likes of Hnarick and Pierrebal on the plus

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4 years 5 months ago #96 by hanrick
Solidly involved on Italy +29.5 and +30.5. IMO the cap should be about 21.5. Also on Boks under 37.5 points. Moved to 38.5 after I placed my bet, but very happy with 37.5 anyway. Have also taken PSDT for man of the match at 10/1.

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4 years 5 months ago #97 by shaft
Undecided on the cap so going for a bit of value. First scoring play SA pen @ 24/10

"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."

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4 years 5 months ago #98 by mackem
Couch Critic's preview for all 3 of Saturday's games, AUSvURU, ENGvARG and JAPvSam

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...day-5th-october.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 5 months ago #99 by southpaw
After a good day yesterday am not getting too involved in this one, just a few bigger price punts -

Total points 41-50 @ 3/1
1st try Mbonanbi 10/1
MOM Pollard 6/1

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4 years 5 months ago #100 by Couch Critic
Find myself heavily involved in this one now.

Italy +14.5 first Half
Then saw Boks under 2.5 first half tries so added that
Also a nibble First Scoring Play - SA Penalty @ 28/10
Italy under 0.5 tries @ 9/10 (moved to 8/11)

A free scoring game with Boks starting fast and I'm screwed big time!

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