Rugby: Hamilton 7s, Pro 14, Premiership + other 24-26 Jan

Hamilton 7s and the major change is that there are NO Cup Quarter-Finals! The winners of each pool go straight into the Semi's and its for that reason why I am backing Beeeeej's native France for the win.

France are 10/1 at Hollywood and represents some value.
Winner of Pool B and C face each other so it could be SA vs France in Semi 1.
The Blitzbokke are without Senatla, Sage, Specman, Soyizwapi, Nel and Oosthuizen (Thats 6 members of the squad that faced NZ in the final in CPT). The Blitzies will be no-where near the levels in the first 2 tourneys and going against them could well be an autoplay in Day 1.
France look to have their full side from CPT and they have a lovely balance of strength (Veredamu and Laugel) and creativity (Parez and Barraque). Bouhraoua is also back and he has loads of 7s experience so they are a settled side. France narrowly lost by 1 try to the Blitzies in Cape Town so this could swing in their favour with the massive changes to the SA side. Fancy France to beat SA on Day 2.

Then NZ should face Fiji in the other Semi. The good news for France is that one of them will be knocked out!
Fiji are without Dranisinukula while NZ are without Knewstubb and Rokolisoa. This game could always go either way and will be won on the final play of the game.

Looking ahead to the final, France beat Fiji 29-24 in Cape Town's bronze final so will take confidence if they face Fiji.
Facing NZ in a final in their back yard, that could be tough but at 10/1, it will be worth the ride

Early punt
1 unit - France to win the Hamilton 7s at 10/1 at Hollies

Very excited for this weekend’s Hamilton 7s!
Over the last 4 series Hamilton has the lowest tries per game out of any 7s leg on the circuit.
However, in saying this, Hamilton has a brand new turf that has been fast-tracked for the 7s so should provide a beautiful playing field, conducive for higher scoring rugby. Furthermore, the weather forecast is hot and dry this weekend.

We don’t see any real value in the outrights for the tournament. As RB alluded to, semi 1 is likely Fiji v NZ while semi 2 is SA v France.
As great as France are, I don’t think odds of 10 is high enough to warrant a pre tournament bet. You could probably get better value by betting on them to win each match , including the final. I do think they’re a good shout for the tournament though, however We have them at about 14/1 to win the tournament.

Outright pick: none

With regards to team news:
Most teams have announced strong squads. USA welcome back iosefo and pinkelman which should boost them back to their 2019 self. USA to win pool A at 6.5 seems a bit high, however NZ should be too strong for them. But will be on a double digit USA plus for sure v Nz

Pool B:
Kenya have injera back, while SA lose some players but still have an extremely strong team. We have a sneaky feeling about Kenya this weekend so Will be sure to be waiting on some Kenya pluses. England are missing a few regulars and look average. But they tend to play well against SA!

Pool C:
This pool should be exciting with 3 good teams in the mix. France have been awesome and should top the pool. Ireland announced a strong squad and will look to build on their good Start. Canada still missing Douglas.

Pool D should be a cracker as Fiji, aus and Argentina all look strong, while Samoa can always turn up too.

We’ll have more opinions when match handicaps come out.

The no quarter-finals aspect of the Hamilton and Sydney tournaments (which makes sense given both tournaments are cramming men's and women's sevens in just two days) does make picking futures for the men and women a bit of a crap shoot. Hopefully the no quarter-finals thing doesn't catch on, I would not be shocked if they did it in Hong Kong, since there will be four tournaments played in Hong Kong (men's and women's world series, and the men's and women's promotion tournaments).

I can see the logic in taking the French men given they're quite likely to win their pool, but I feel you would want a bit more than $9 or $10.

In the women's it seems a foregone conclusion that New Zealand will win and that's reflected in the $1.30 odds. Unlike the men though, the best second place team will also qualify with the three pool winners for the semi-finals, so there will be a strong incentive for teams to try and run up big scores against the minnows in their pools.

Beteasy in Australia appear to be the first in the world to release lines for the first round of men's matches, they have:

Ireland -5.5 v Canada
France -17.5 v Spain
England -7.5 v Kenya
South Africa -33.5 v Japan
Australia -7.5 v Argentina
Fiji -17.5 v Samoa
USA -15.5 v Scotland
New Zealand -27.5 v Wales

Hi guys. Looking forward to the sevens this weekend. Not a fan of the format where only group winners progress straight to semi's. Really hoping this won't become a permanent change in the future.

Might have a situation where three teams each have 2 wins and 1 loss.

So points difference will then be vital. So this might result in teams going even harder than normal to score as many as possible tries....so overs on points might become a play to consider?

Looking forward to get some hot tips from all the regular sevens punters

Just the one Friday game this weekend:

Northampton 13.5 vs London Irish
Stig's line: 12
Tip: Plus 13.5

Northampton Saints lost a number of key players to Six Nations duty and the algorithm suggest the visitors can keep it tighter than expected.

Twitter @BettingStig

Have taken the Saints minus -13

They have decent depth and suspect they'll have the edge up front.

Not a massive stake, as keeping powder dry for Super Rugby and 6N

Really enjoyed the show with the Brent and Sean! Here is a summary of our tips for the Hamilton 7s:

Round 1 Matches:

Match: Ireland v Canada (BEST BET)
Pick: Canada +7.5 @ 1.85 (Interbet)

Match: France vs Spain
Pick: France -17.5 @ 1.85 (ESBN)

Match: Kenya vs England
Pick: Kenya +5.5 @ 2 (SupaBets)

Match: Australia v Australia (BEST BET)
Pick: Australia -4.5 @1.85 (Interbet)

Match: Fiji vs Samoa
Pick: Samoa +15.5 1.80 (ESBN)

Match: USA vs Scotland (BEST BET)
Pick: USA -11.5 @ 1.78 (ESBN)

Refer to the show if you want to hear the rational. We have indicated our three best bets.

Round 2 Matches:

We do think the value will be in the second round of matches. Note that these are just predicted caps and are not out yet.

Match: South Africa vs England
Pick: Take South Africa minus if it is anything less than 12.5

Match: Fiji vs Australia
Pick: Take Australia plus if it is anything bigger than 10.5

Match: Scotland vs Wales
Pick: Take Scotland minus if it is anything less than 13.5

Follow us on twitter for our in-play tips if you are interested.

Good luck gents!

New Zealand women -34.5 v China looks fantastic to me. New Zealand have their captain Sarah Hirini back as well as Michaela Blyde (who IMO is the best women's sevens player in the world) and China have fielded a very inexperienced side for this tournament.

Ok squads have been finalised.

SA vs Japan
SA thrashed the Japanese 7s side 49-0 in Cape Town with a couple of very soft tries scored. One was while Japan had the ball in their 22 and somehow passed it to Senatla who dotted down. 3 of the try-scorers for SA are MIA this weekend (Senatla, Nel and Speckmagic).
Japan also had a very green side with just 81 tournament caps between them.

This weekend the Japs welcome back Toquiri and Ozawa and their side is more experienced with 176 caps between them. Japan get into the Olympics as a host nation and they are starting their preparations for that this weekend. Its a massive one for them and they will not want to be disgraced in game 1. I just feel that 6 tries is a bit of a stretch for a Blitzies side without as much pace as prior tournaments.

Japan +35.5 at 1.86 at Playa - Cracker punt!

I took Japan +38.5 at Hollywood

I suspect that +38.5 won't last. WSB opened with +35.5 and already down to 32.5 line.

Premiership (performance 29/49 = 60%)

Bath 5.5 v Leicester
S-line: -1
Plus 5.5

Bristol 2.5 v Gloucester
S-line: -5
Plus 2.5

Exeter 11.5 v Sale
S-line: 7
Plus 11.5

Worcester 1.5 v Wasps
S-line: 5
Minus 1.5

Harlequins 2.5 v Saracens
S-line: -7
Plus 2.5

Saints v Irish - over 49.5pts @ 8/11

Top 14 (algorithm performance 53/91=58%)

Lyon 3.5 vs Toulon
Stig line: -3
Tip: Plus 3.5

Brive 3.5 vs Pau
Stig line: 8
Tip: Minus 3.5

Castres 1.5 vs Racing92
Stig line: -6
Tip: Plus 1.5

La Rochelle 6.5 vs Montpellier
Stig line: 10
Tip: Minus 6.5

Toulouse 6.5 vs Bordeaux
Stig line: 8
Tip: Minus 6.5

Find me on twitter @BettingStig

Great start to Hamilton 7s for Son_of_a_punt!

Unbelievable start to the 7s calling 5/6 of the picks posted on the forum! But most importantly all 3 of our best bets won, so we hope everyone managed to get on those, as then you will be sitting nicely in the green zone.

Looking ahead to the 2nd round of games:

Match: Ireland v Spain (BEST BET)
Pick: Ireland -4.5 (bet.co.za)

Match: Argentina v Samoa
Pick: Argentina +3.5 @1.90 (bet.co.za)

Match: Scotland v Wales
Pick: Scotland -13.5 @1.90 (bet.co.za)

Not sure many of you are awake to see this.. but for those who are, good luck! Will post again tomorrow afternoon for our day 2 picks.

P.S For those that watched #TheHandicap, what a rollercoaster that NZ v Wales game was! We tipped a cheeky NZ -35.5 combined with an under 47.5 match points... Final score was New Zealand 47 - Wales 0... so it was a nice way to end round 1 with a double boom.

son_of_a_punt wrote: Unbelievable start to the 7s calling 5/6 of the picks posted on the forum! But most importantly all 3 of our best bets won, so we hope everyone managed to get on those, as then you will be sitting nicely in the green zone.

Lads, between you and Ruggabugga I've gotta get the next few rounds in.

You guys are absolutely brilliant, I really hope you enjoy Super Rugby as much as you do the 7's.
For the first time in yonks, I've woken to a betting account balance that made my eyes pop (after my regular Friday afternoon session with the mates, I go doodoos early ) so never watched any of the games but did have a bunch off accas - and I included London Irish to win @ 5.60 in a few

Next time I'm in Barcelona, the steaks are on me

Brilliant tipping well done lads.

I’m not a big sevens punter so didn’t back your individual game tips but lazily followed the Acca in Brents newsletter. So a thanks to you all there.

Please post another acca when odds are up!

Cracking start to the weekend. Great work on anyone for followed that Acca. I hope you all took it at WSB!!!!!!!!

Some absolute beauties priced up for first 8 tomorrow

Canada -6.5 vs Spain
The Canooks can top the pool but have to get a better points differential than France do against Irelend. Canada know they wont get a better chance to go straight into the Semi's in their lives so this will be ALL IN from them. They should smash this handicap with the extra motivation

Argentina +19.5 vs FIji
THIS IS PURE GOLD!!! Argentina have covered 6 of the last 6 handicaps against Fiji with the highest margin of defeat of 14 points. The Argies could even top the pool if they beat Fiji. Fiji are not the best at the wide conversions so this is my bet of the round. Come on your Argies!

Kings v Cheetahs - fired into over 54.5 pts.

Coaches talking up an expansive game today so hopefully sticks to the plan.

Morning gents, caps are out for the final round of the group stages, and boy are there are some absolute crackers!

Match: Canada vs Spain (BEST BET)
Pick: Canda -5.5 @1.90 (bet.co.za)

Match: France vs Ireland (BEST BET)
Pick: France -4.5 @1.80 (bwin or kieth betXchange)

Match: Australia vs Samoa
Pick: Samoa +17.5 @1.85 (ESBN)

Match: Fiji vs Argentina (BEST BET)
Pick: Argentina +19.5 @1.77 (ESBN)

Match: USA vs Wales
Pick: USA -18.5 @1.80 (around the board)

We have indicated our best bets of the round, so we suggest to only take those. Note for the France -5.5, this becomes incredibly juicy if Canada beat Spain by more than 4 points, so if that happens maybe it is worth doubling down.

We don't normally do accumulators, but after that 11/1 accumulator landed in round 1, we've decided to treat ourselves to a cheeky acca.

France -5.5 @1.90
Samoa +16.5 @1.90
Argentina +18.5 @1.85
USA -20.5 @1.90
Total odds @ 12.68

Good luck out there gents! Will post further tips later for the knockout stages. Happy punting

SA vs Kenya
Over 36.5 @ 1.90

Some absolutely sensational tipping here RB and Son of a punt.

The books are crying into their pints!!

Just another day at the office for a 7s tournament!

Out of the 11 tips we posted on the forum we got 10 correct. However, most importantly we got 100% of our best bets correct with 6/6.

For those risk seeking gents out there - we hope you got on our 4-fold accumulator @ odds of 12.68! It was never in doubt, and it’s always a great feeling to land an accumulator. What a thrill. Second of the weekend nogal.

The bookies have been absolutely bullied this weekend by all of us. We’ve been waiting patiently for the caps to come out for the knockout stages, but they’re still not out. So we’re pretty happy to call it a very successful tournament and hit the hay.

Good night gents. Happy punting

son_of_a_punt wrote: Just another day at the office for a 7s tournament!

The bookies have been absolutely bullied this weekend by all of us. We’ve been waiting patiently for the caps to come out for the knockout stages, but they’re still not out. So we’re pretty happy to call it a very successful tournament and hit the hay.

Well done guys, you really knocked it out the park.

Different morning this morning for me though - back to form
Time I got onboard yesterday, Canada was at -7.5 and Samoa had gone to +14.5, and one or the other was in every one of my accas. So a great big zero for me

But that's the price of my greed, no ?

Overall however, my London Irish win multiple of 5.60 yesterday on top of your tips, left me well in the green with my best weekend in recent memory. So thanks and please keep your tips flowing.

Well done again and 'Ole' Barcelona

Aus vs Sam result 33-19. Which in my books say a +14.5 Sam is a win. Sporting bet said I lost the punt. Just mailed them...@kirky you might also want to follow up...

Rubber stamping the Barca Boys pick of Aussie vs England in bronze medal match.

Then taking my Frenchies +12.5 in the final and have that 10/1 outright punt still pending. Come on Les Bleus

What happened to 9to10 the pair??? 50/50 chance which should actually be even money (black and red on a roulette table), but they offer 8.5/10....

Modest play on Quins -2 @ evens

Going with the theory Sarries boys will have their minds elsewhere - plus their London rivals will have a bit more motivation than usual.

Quins are a difficult team to trust though, hence modest stake.

And interest punt on Care 1st try @ 17

Unreal call on Danny care Brad!