Super Rugby wk1, 6 Nations Rd 1 and other rugby
- Brent Graham
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Anyone who followed RuggaBugga and Son of a Punt on their incredible Hamilton 7's run should have their accounts fully loaded and ready to fire.
Going forward I will do a Sunday video with my handicap projections but for week 1 they have been out for some time. Current handicaps below and I will also be sharing details of the SuperBru Competitions and this weeks You Tube shows in another post
Week 1 Super Rugby Handicaps
Blues +5.5 v Chiefs
Brumbies -7.5 v Reds
Sharks -3.5 v Bulls
Sunwolves +16.5 v Rebels
Crusaders -18.5 v Waratahs
Stormers +1.5 v Hurricanes
Jaguares -6.5 v Lions
Round 1 6 Nations Handicaps
Wales -23.5 v Italy
Ireland -13.5 v Scotland
France +4.5 v England
Let's put the bookies on the back foot from day 1.
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- southpaw
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Copy below -
Just had to get started today on super rugby as this Blues v Chiefs line has bugged me for weeks. I can’t understand why Chiefs are favourites? Blues have had 2 hard winning prep games to get into shape, their coaching team is really settled for this season, and they have their best 10 in Stephen Perofeta back fit.
Blues +5.5 @ 9/10 is a first round stand out for me.
Also taking smaller interest Blues win 15/8.
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- ThoughtsOnSports
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Elsewhere, Sharks on the board at 6/10 and Stormers on the board at 12/10 are big fancies for me.
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- The Vann
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- Pierrebal
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I’ve followed on the Blues, no Barrett yet but perhaps for once they’ll have a decent start to the season.
My bet for the weekend is Jaguares -6.5. I think the Lions simply lost too many players with no real grunt or magic coming in. Jaguares lost only a handful of guys and starting at home is always an advantage.
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- BDub
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Canes traveling to SA sans Savea and Coles. It’ll also be interesting to see how they go without a match winner like BB. Not a great Canes pack IMO vs a Springbok laden pack. If the Storm can get ascendency at scrum time it should be game over and take the dangerous Canes backs out of the game.
12/10 Stormers is my pick.
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- ballaholic
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Blues have unproven coach, mediocre fly half and terrible organisation with recent history of disappointment (over and over).
Chiefs -4.5 for me.
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- RuggaBugga
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Blues always start well and have covered 4/5 opening matches since 2015.
2019 - Lost 24-22 to Saders at home (Handicap Blues +7.5)
2018 - Lost 41-34 to Landers away (Handicap Blues +7.5)
2017 - Beat Rebels 56-18 away (Handicap Blues -3.5)
2016 - Beat Landers 33-31 at home (Handicap Blues -2.5)
2015 - Lost 23-18 to Chiefs at home (Handicap Blues +12.5)
Plus all the other comments and thats my first punt on S20!
Scared money dont make money! BOOM!
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- southpaw
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RuggaBugga wrote: Getting on the Blues train, Blues +5.5 at evens at GG is a cracker!
Blues always start well and have covered 4/5 opening matches since 2015.
2019 - Lost 24-22 to Saders at home (Handicap Blues +7.5)
2018 - Lost 41-34 to Landers away (Handicap Blues +7.5)
2017 - Beat Rebels 56-18 away (Handicap Blues -3.5)
2016 - Beat Landers 33-31 at home (Handicap Blues -2.5)
2015 - Lost 23-18 to Chiefs at home (Handicap Blues +12.5)
Plus all the other comments and thats my first punt on S20!
all aboard the Blues train, choo-choo. That plus v Saders last year very similar to my strategy this year, eyed it out for weeks and got on early and posted it on week 1 thread. They should have won that game. I don't get the fanfare on Gatland, Super Rugby will pose a whole new challenge for him after so many years in international game. Cruden was bang average in France.
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- Zambusta
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Looking forward to a great season of punting. Will be in Europe for the season, so have to check which sites I will still have access to.
Just a thought on the Sydney 7's:
Interesting to see what the outright price on Australia will be. I thought they played very well and pushed both NZ and Fiji close in their games in Hamilton. Add to that the issues the country has been having with the fires etc, I reckon the team will be super pumped to give Australians some good news.
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- Cettas
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"NZR has decreed that the All Blacks rest periods that were installed to help win last year's World Cup (it didn't happen in case anyone was still wondering) will remain in place.
So, the All Blacks who are still part of Super Rugby are obliged to miss parts of the opening rounds and be stood down from two games in addition to the built-in bye periods."
www.stuff.co.nz/sport/119015676/mark-rea...he-river-by-nz-rugby
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- mackem
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- Pierrebal
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mackem wrote: Great read from Couch Critic, Super Rugby outright preview with a heads up and verdict on every team and also outright plays (top tryscorer picks to be added in next day or so.
goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/super...ew-couch-critic.html
Truly fantastic research and effort!
One had to expect an exodus after the RwC, with no real marquee additions. I really hope we still see quality rugby with some of the younger players given the freedom to express themselves!
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- Brent Graham
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SuperBru
Here is the link to Putyourmoneywhereyourmouthis our Pay 2 Play SuperBru pool – only enter if you are going to pay the R500 – all proceeds paid back as prizes – last year our Super Rugby winner got R13.5k www.superbru.com/superrugby/pool.php?p=12190082
Here is the link to our free World Sports Betting Super Rugby Predictor pool – over 7k worth of betting voucher prizes www.superbru.com/superrugby/pool.php?p=12190090
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- Cettas
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Cettas wrote: Not sure if it would be applied but something to keep an eye on:
"NZR has decreed that the All Blacks rest periods that were installed to help win last year's World Cup (it didn't happen in case anyone was still wondering) will remain in place.
So, the All Blacks who are still part of Super Rugby are obliged to miss parts of the opening rounds and be stood down from two games in addition to the built-in bye periods."
www.stuff.co.nz/sport/119015676/mark-rea...he-river-by-nz-rugby
www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/super-rugby/...0-super-rugby-season
NZR head of high performance Mike Anthony confirmed to Stuff this week that the same rest directives would apply to All Blacks during this Super Rugby regular season.
- Two games off (on top of the teams' two byes)
- No more than six games played in succession (byes and rest weeks reset the count)
- A 180-minute cap on game time over the first three rounds
Along with that 180-minute restriction, coaches are also instructed to try and build the load - for instance, 40 minutes, then 60, then 80 - which wasn't perfectly adhered to last season.
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- TheBettingStig
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Tips summary
Blues plus 5.5 v Chiefs
Reds plus 7.5 v Brumbies
Sharks minus 3.5 v Bulls
Waratahs plus 18.5 v Crusaders
Stormers plus 2.5 v Hurricanes
Rebels minus 16.5 v Sunwolves
Jaguares minus 6.5 v Lions
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- hanrick
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Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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- mackem
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First up, Wales v Italy
goodforthegame.co.za/Six-Nations-Rugby/w...betting-preview.html
2 units (1-5 scale) Wales -23.5 points at 9/10
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- Brad Breath
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hanrick wrote: Firing into the Reds +7.5 at 9/10 and Reds to win the game at 24/10. Like the look of the Reds team and Brumbies look weak to me.
Agreed and have taken the cap bet also.
Not convinced the Reds will be far away from topping the Aus conference, as such I've taken some 6.0 for them to do so, reckon it's a bit of value.
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- mackem
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goodforthegame.co.za/Six-Nations-Rugby/i...betting-preview.html
2 units, Ireland -13.5 points at 9/10
Unut Scale 1-5
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- son_of_a_punt
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Big thanks to Couch Critic for his epic preview on Super Rugby - some fantastic research put in there. It saved us a lot of time and allowed us to fully invest our attention into the Sydney 7s. We are going to be focusing on tips for the Sydney 7s after yet another successful 7s tournament last weekend. After Sydney we will be looking to get stuck into Super Rugby and Six Nations! However, we do have one big fancy in the Super Rugby this weekend.
Match: Sharks vs Bulls
Pick: Sharks to win @1.70 (Hollywoodbets)
Logic: An away fixture at the Shark Tank is hard enough, but to make it even more difficult is hot humid conditions - and that is exactly what conditions are like on Friday night when the Bulls travel to Durban. To make matters worse for the Bulls the Sharks have an immense backline filled with South African internationals and a very solid pack. The Bulls on the other hand have lost a handful of key players and look to be in a rebuilding stage. We are all over Sharks to get the W here with high confidence.
Good luck on the punts this weekend gents, lets hope the bookies are crying come Sunday evening!
Cheers
-SOFP
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- shaft
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"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- mackem
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goodforthegame.co.za/Six-Nations-Rugby/f...betting-preview.html
3.5 units England -3.5 points at 9/10
Unit Scale 1-5
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- BDub
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Heat in Canberra will reach 40 degrees and I think the Queenslanders will struggle to acclimatize coming from a much cooler Brisbane.
1st game always much more of a gamble but Brumbies covered this cap 6/9 times at home.
Game could also be in doubt due to temps and smoke from fires burning just outside Canberra.
Ikimashou!
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- The Vann
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Super Rugby and Six Nations and we have a few outrights from the inimitable Couch and A Reds bet from BB.
I could post more outrights on a one week bicycle race then this effort - in fact I have.
Calling all Rugby Union Experts. Please be so kind as to give us lesser mortals (the footie types) at least one outright punt. And could South clock in with a few ?
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- hanrick
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The Vann wrote: Come on Guys - Get Yer friggin back into it.
Super Rugby and Six Nations and we have a few outrights from the inimitable Couch and A Reds bet from BB.
I could post more outrights on a one week bicycle race then this effort - in fact I have.
Calling all Rugby Union Experts. Please be so kind as to give us lesser mortals (the footie types) at least one outright punt. And could South clock in with a few ?
Sharks to qualify for playoffs at 2/1
Highlanders to miss the playoffs at 2/1
Hurricanes to miss the playoffs at 4/1
Chiefs to win the title at 7/2
There you go. FIRE!
Oh, andI wanted to add. All these pick are with WSB, where I can't bet. The offering from the rest of the bookies is extremely poor this year. Only outright betting and conference betting
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- TheBettingStig
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Chiefs -2.5 @0.90 widely available.
Also Blues/Chiefs ht/ft offers tremendous value at 5.5 or 11/5. I have taken a nibble, Chiefs named a strong bench and I fancy them to come through in the last 20mins and take the game away from the Blues.
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- The Vann
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TheBettingStig wrote: Line moved for a nice middle opportunity on Blues v Chiefs. Those who followed me on Blues +5.5 now can get Chiefs -2.5 for a nice 3 point middle which can easily land with the close NZ derby games.
Chiefs -2.5 @0.90 widely available.
Also Blues/Chiefs ht/ft offers tremendous value at 5.5 or 11/5. I have taken a nibble, Chiefs named a strong bench and I fancy them to come through in the last 20mins and take the game away from the Blues.
Personally would probably have mentioned someone like Southpaw before crowing about those who followed me.
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- TheBettingStig
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- TheBettingStig
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Luck to all, hope we have a super Super season!
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- Couch Critic
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hanrick wrote: Sharks to qualify for playoffs at 2/1
Highlanders to miss the playoffs at 2/1
Hurricanes to miss the playoffs at 4/1
Chiefs to win the title at 7/2
There you go. FIRE!
Oh, andI wanted to add. All these pick are with WSB, where I can't bet. The offering from the rest of the bookies is extremely poor this year. Only outright betting and conference betting
Gbets has them as well Hanrick
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- Brent Graham
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- TheBettingStig
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- hanrick
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Couch Critic wrote:
hanrick wrote: Sharks to qualify for playoffs at 2/1
Highlanders to miss the playoffs at 2/1
Hurricanes to miss the playoffs at 4/1
Chiefs to win the title at 7/2
There you go. FIRE!
Oh, andI wanted to add. All these pick are with WSB, where I can't bet. The offering from the rest of the bookies is extremely poor this year. Only outright betting and conference betting
Gbets has them as well Hanrick
Thanks Couch, but limited there to such an extend that it's not worth betting there
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- Brent Graham
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Probably less interest in this one than any other game (Folau very short ATS) and gone for a nibble Brumbies 1-12
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- Kirky
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No worries Vann, if you've been following the thread you'd know the boys are keeping powder dry for Sydney 7s, and RuggaBugga and the Men (not boys) from Barcelona's superlative calls to put us on the winners podium and put the dagger into the bookies.The Vann wrote: Come on Guys - Get Yer friggin back into it.
Super Rugby and Six Nations and we have a few outrights from the inimitable Couch and A Reds bet from BB.
I could post more outrights on a one week bicycle race then this effort - in fact I have.
Calling all Rugby Union Experts. Please be so kind as to give us lesser mortals (the footie types) at least one outright punt. And could South clock in with a few ?
However... we've all been salivating for Super rugby since the world cup, and everyone seems to have a plan for it, and you're right - gedorf-the-fence-time.
So for what it's worth, here's my picks (confidence):
Blues win (4/5);
Brumbies -7.5 (3/5);
Bulls win (4/5);
Rebels -17.5 (2/5);
Crusaders -18.5 (2/5)
Stormers -2.5 (3/5)
Jaguares -10.5 (4/5)
And 6 Nations too, just for the hell of it:
Italy +23.5 (2/5);
Ireland -14.5 (4/5);
England -3.5 (4/5).
Good pickings and punting guys, can't wait to see Sean and Barca-Boys 7's calls
PLEASE NOTE: Take these with a pinch of salt tossed over your left shoulder - I'm not known for my betting success - Now that's how you write a disclaimer
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- mackem
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- southpaw
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Thanks for all the outright selections, a bit like Hanrick i'm heavily limited or blocked @ most bookies that have all the exotic options for season bets, so it's slim pickings for me. However one i've taken this morning which feels value -
SR Top Tryscorer regular season - Will Jordan @ 50/1, top 3 @ 13/1 (Sunbet).
This feels big, he had 8 tries in opening 7 games last season before picking up a foot injury. He's just resigned for 3 years with Saders, can play across backline and is right up there as fastest guys in tournament. He also gets the nod @ 14 this weekend and while that's Reece's usual spot, Jordan looks the sort who will move to 15 at times, i believe that's where they are thinking about him as future All Black, especially with all the injuries McKenzie keeps getting.
Looking @ six nations - Player of Tournament Ntamack @ 25/1 generally available.
Super talented youngster looks like he's nailed down that 10 shirt and really impressed me @ world cup, also playing well for toulouse this year. If France go well it would have meant him having a blinder and while i have taken some France 8/1 outright a while back, this looks a nice complimentary bet for a further interest in the French, who i'll be rooting for all tournament.
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- coil
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In preference my better bets are :
Stormers minus 3.5 vs Canes
Italy plus 23.5
Waratahs plus 18.5
Next best
Reds plus 8.5
Ireland minus 13.5
Sharks minus 4.5 .
In Cape Town am smashing Rainbow Bridge and covering with Vardy .
Sevens I won't be touching sadly unless I'm following the Guru's on site .
Play well
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- Pierrebal
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Bets taken at the start of the week
Blues +5.5 - With D-Mac out my confidence is up a bit more - but its the Blues, so no wagering the house.
Jaguares -6.5 - This is my absolute bet of the weekend - Lions hate this fixture and their team don't have the depth to fight up-front and I can see them losing it by more than 10 points.
Added today
Waratahs +18.5 - First game up for both sides, and with the Crusaders resting some AB's and saying others will only play 40 minutes it was worth a nibble.
In the other matches I fancy:
Reds points / tries over - Reds backline looks great, second season under Thorne they should look to give the ball some air as they won't win any wrestling match this season.
Sharks / Bulls - total points over / tries - Both backlines look full of running, only draw-back is that this is an evening game in Durban, so will have to wait and see what line comes out.
Sunwolves / Rebels - Clear skies on Saturday in Fukuoka - Tackling may be optional with the Sunwolves' new squad. Will look at Rebels overs, alternatively take them on the minus and sleep out Saturday morning. Hoping to add Rangi, anytime tryscorer.
Stormers / Hurricanes - As a Stormers fan I should really stay away, perhaps Kolisi anytime from a maul or a line-out move through midfield.
Looking forward to the show tonight and happy first week everyone!
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- Cettas
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Either side to win by 7 or less including draw @ 2.25
Also added the Friday games in an acca
All three games either side to win by 7 or less including draw @ 13.37
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- Zambusta
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Cettas wrote: Blues v Chiefs
Either side to win by 7 or less including draw @ 2.25
Also added the Friday games in an acca
All three games either side to win by 7 or less including draw @ 13.37
I also took the same bet at Sunbet.
I agree all 3 games look like they will be close.
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- Shazzadude
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BDub wrote: Going against the grain and taking Brumbies -6.5.
Heat in Canberra will reach 40 degrees and I think the Queenslanders will struggle to acclimatize coming from a much cooler Brisbane.
1st game always much more of a gamble but Brumbies covered this cap 6/9 times at home.
Game could also be in doubt due to temps and smoke from fires burning just outside Canberra.
Ikimashou!
Brisbane has regularly been hitting temperatures over 30 degrees, and last week played a trial match against the Waratahs in Dalby (which they won 28-19), a town where temperatures are currently averaging between 35-40 degrees. Heat will not be a factor for Queensland.
Kiwi living in Australia
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- Shazzadude
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Blues +6.5 (since moved)
Reds +7.5 and ML
Stormers ML
Will also look to take:
Sharks -3.5 and 13+
Rebels minus
Maybe Jaguares minus
Kiwi living in Australia
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- The Vann
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The Vann wrote: Come on Guys - Get Yer friggin back into it.
Super Rugby and Six Nations and we have a few outrights from the inimitable Couch and A Reds bet from BB.
I could post more outrights on a one week bicycle race then this effort - in fact I have.
Calling all Rugby Union Experts. Please be so kind as to give us lesser mortals (the footie types) at least one outright punt. And could South clock in with a few ?
Still dancing with the SA Revenue Services and really not enjoying the music . Apologies for the delay in thanking all outright posts. Thanks to Hanrick, Couch, BB, Kirky and Southpaw for their picks.
One last lazy request from you chaps ( I did drive over 250km in the heat today, spent 4 hours in the presence of an idiot and lost around 3 years income )
Their are still a few books prepared to relieve me of my savings and two of them offer Super Rugby Top Try Scorer excluding play offs. On that basis I would like a Try Scorer pick who gets 2 runs at the Sunwolves during the regular season. Any suggestions?
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- southpaw
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The Vann wrote:
The Vann wrote: Come on Guys - Get Yer friggin back into it.
Super Rugby and Six Nations and we have a few outrights from the inimitable Couch and A Reds bet from BB.
I could post more outrights on a one week bicycle race then this effort - in fact I have.
Calling all Rugby Union Experts. Please be so kind as to give us lesser mortals (the footie types) at least one outright punt. And could South clock in with a few ?
Still dancing with the SA Revenue Services and really not enjoying the music . Apologies for the delay in thanking all outright posts. Thanks to Hanrick, Couch, BB, Kirky and Southpaw for their picks.
One last lazy request from you chaps ( I did drive over 250km in the heat today, spent 4 hours in the presence of an idiot and lost around 3 years income )
Their are still a few books prepared to relieve me of my savings and two of them offer Super Rugby Top Try Scorer excluding play offs. On that basis I would like a Try Scorer pick who gets 2 runs at the Sunwolves during the regular season. Any suggestions?
Aussie sides get 2 cracks, Brumbies for me look more attack minded than other Australian sides. How about their new wing & cross-code hulk SOLOMONE KATA @ 100/1?
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- southpaw
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Brumbies
Sharks
Crusaders
Rebels
Stormers
Jaguares
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- The Vann
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southpaw wrote:
The Vann wrote:
The Vann wrote: Come on Guys - Get Yer friggin back into it.
Super Rugby and Six Nations and we have a few outrights from the inimitable Couch and A Reds bet from BB.
I could post more outrights on a one week bicycle race then this effort - in fact I have.
Calling all Rugby Union Experts. Please be so kind as to give us lesser mortals (the footie types) at least one outright punt. And could South clock in with a few ?
Still dancing with the SA Revenue Services and really not enjoying the music . Apologies for the delay in thanking all outright posts. Thanks to Hanrick, Couch, BB, Kirky and Southpaw for their picks.
One last lazy request from you chaps ( I did drive over 250km in the heat today, spent 4 hours in the presence of an idiot and lost around 3 years income )
Their are still a few books prepared to relieve me of my savings and two of them offer Super Rugby Top Try Scorer excluding play offs. On that basis I would like a Try Scorer pick who gets 2 runs at the Sunwolves during the regular season. Any suggestions?
Aussie sides get 2 cracks, Brumbies for me look more attack minded than other Australian sides. How about their new wing & cross-code hulk SOLOMONE KATA @ 100/1?
Many thanks South - A K across a few books on top three @ 25/1
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- mackem
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- Brent Graham
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