Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby

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4 years 2 months ago #1 by Brent Graham
Getting this thread started early as have plans today and wont get a chance to do a video until later - in the video I will likely be able to compare to GGG opening lines

Overall a pretty decent weekend for me although I could have done with the Brumbies holding on but fortunately missed that game as well as the Sharks so never got as involved as I might have. Lions overs and Leinster minus the big wins.

Here are my opening Super Rugby handicaps for week 4

Crusaders -14.5 v Highlanders
Rebels +2.5 v Sharks (have a feeling I could be well out here)
Chiefs -14.5 v Brumbies
Reds -19.5 v Sunwolves
Stormers -6.5 v Jags
Bulls -2.5 v Blues

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4 years 2 months ago #2 by CLrugby
I would price Rebels at +6.5 and Bulls +5.5
I can’t imagine the Bulls being favorite against the Blues looking at the atrocious squad they have and the lack of offensive weapons.
Rest I am all aligned. Stormers H only if Cotze and Jantijes are back.

Brent Graham wrote: Getting this thread started early as have plans today and wont get a chance to do a video until later - in the video I will likely be able to compare to GGG opening lines

Overall a pretty decent weekend for me although I could have done with the Brumbies holding on but fortunately missed that game as well as the Sharks so never got as involved as I might have. Lions overs and Leinster minus the big wins.

Here are my opening Super Rugby handicaps for week 4

Crusaders -14.5 v Highlanders
Rebels +2.5 v Sharks (have a feeling I could be well out here)
Chiefs -14.5 v Brumbies
Reds -19.5 v Sunwolves
Stormers -6.5 v Jags
Bulls -2.5 v Blues


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4 years 2 months ago #3 by Shazzadude
Replied by Shazzadude on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
My line predictions:

Crusaders -17.5
Rebels +2.5
Chiefs -12.5
Reds -8.5
Stormers -4.5
Bulls -1.5

Kiwi living in Australia

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4 years 2 months ago #4 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
Brent Graham Handicaps (TAB NZ live betting in brackets)

Crusaders -14.5 (-15.5) v Highlanders
Rebels +2.5 (-1.5) v Sharks
Chiefs -14.5 (-13,5) v Brumbies
Reds -19.5 (-11.5) v Sunwolves
Stormers -6.5 (-3,5) v Jags
Bulls -2.5 (+1.5) v Blues

3P early bets - Gatland Chiefs to cover the -13.5 in a canter. Traveling back from Japan but left behind a trio of AB power in Hamilton. Angry Reds to cover the -11.5 after last weeks penalty count! Sharks touring well, taking the undedog +1.5, while it lasts. Cheers
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4 years 2 months ago #5 by mackem
Beating the Buzzer ........ this week's edition of Post Match Scuffle from Couch Critic

goodforthegame.co.za/Couch-Critic/post-m...ting-the-buzzer.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 2 months ago #6 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
In agreement with the Sharks +2 which I've snapped up - all but gone now from books up North

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4 years 2 months ago #7 by Pierrebal
Replied by Pierrebal on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
Early doors, but targeting three early handicaps:

Reds -12.5, they must be fuming after Saturday.

Stormers -3.5, no way the Jaguares will get the same penalty count and if Jantjies and Coetzee are fit I can see this cap going out beyond 7.

Bulls +1.5, Bulls are a different team at home and they should outkick, outmuscle the Blues and get their first win of the year.

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4 years 2 months ago #8 by CLrugby
Bosch is back for the sharkies but not sure about the 2 players on head Knocks. Ioane is back for the Blues (3 weeks only?) but Telea and Goodhue are out and to be fair they were almost their best players. Black is also back but so what both Ruru are Black are Mitre level at best.

I took a very simple Reds/Chiefs/Crusaders @1.70 to start with, then like everyone the Sharks +1.5 is a must grab.

I think the Chiefs will trash the Brumbies as well and does someone have reliable info on Jantijes and Cotze? In my opinion they should both be starting as it was nothing serious. If they both start Jaguares wont have enough to handle the Stormtroopers

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4 years 2 months ago #9 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
Super Rugby review live at 21h00 on You Tube and Facebook


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4 years 2 months ago #10 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
Super Rugby Round 4 (performance 14/21=67%)

Crusaders minus 14.5 v Highlanders
Sharks win v Rebels
Chiefs minus 13.5 v Brumbies
Reds minus 12.5 v Sunwolves
Stormers minus 3.5 v Jaguares
Bulls plus 1.5 v Blues

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4 years 2 months ago #11 by southpaw
looks a tricky weekend in my view and am inclined to skip the caps and focus on points markets later in week when they come out.

If pushed for a pick now i think Jags + 5.5 would be my one, only if Jantjies still out as he's a massive player for Stormers.

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4 years 2 months ago #12 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
Rugby Funny / Quote of the week so far.

"17 All to the Sharks"

Brent Graham on "Use it or lose it"

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4 years 2 months ago #13 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby

threepeat wrote: Rugby Funny / Quote of the week so far.

"17 All to the Sharks"

Brent Graham on "Use it or lose it"


Yes that was a classic - shows you how us handicap punters think - the Sharks had been trailing and in my eyes when they pulled level they were winning :lol: :lol: :lol:

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4 years 2 months ago #14 by The Vann
Notice the general consensus is Chiefs on the minus. With mumps floating around the Brumbies squad and "several" advised not to travel I have taken a chunk of
Chiefs -14.5 @ evens

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4 years 2 months ago #15 by mackem
Wales v France 6 Nations Preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Six-Nations-Rugby/w...betting-preview.html

2 units, Wales win by 1-10 points inclusive 2/1 BetXChange

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 2 months ago #16 by TheBettingStig
Replied by TheBettingStig on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
Gallagher Premiership (performance 36/60=60%)

Sale minus 10.5 v Leicester
Saracens minus 2.5 v Wasps
Bath minus 4.5 v Harlequins
London Irish plus 2.5 v Gloucester
Bristol minus 9.5 v Worcester
Exeter minus 9.5 v Northampton

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4 years 2 months ago #17 by mackem
England v Ireland 6N Sunday preview

goodforthegame.co.za/Six-Nations-Rugby/e...betting-preview.html

2 units, England to win by 1-12 points at 14/10 Sportingbet
1 unit Will there be a drop goal? (yes) at 18/10 WSB

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4 years 2 months ago #18 by Tarka
Will have a go at France outright at 19to10 in a 2 horse race. I think this French team have more to come, they showed glimpses of what they can do in the first half against England. Frogs all the way!!!

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4 years 2 months ago - 4 years 2 months ago #19 by elvis juice
Replied by elvis juice on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
missing the revenge factor for wc , les frogs pour moi , shut down josh and where do wales score from , their forwards are most boring gimps in rugby , tomos Williams if picked is a big threat
Last edit: 4 years 2 months ago by elvis juice.

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4 years 2 months ago #20 by bradie82
Problem of France is that Penaud and Rattez which means Fickou should play on the wing and Vincent at centre - thats a big blow as the Vaka/Fickou association is a must and I can see Vincent suffering. On top of that Ntamack is not a reliable kicker as Ramos is but he will be on the bench if not send back to Toulouse..... any team by less than 8 points seems the best bet but waiting to see of Biggar will play or not
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4 years 2 months ago - 4 years 2 months ago #21 by elvis juice
Replied by elvis juice on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
vakers will rip thomkins a new one , guy was ripped apart by henshaw and aki combo which are slow
Last edit: 4 years 2 months ago by elvis juice.

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4 years 2 months ago #22 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
Crusaders v Highlanders Preview is up and while the cap looks pretty high all signs appear to be pointing towards the Crusaders

Lads don't miss THE HANDICAP live tonight at 21h00 where I will be joined by a star studded panel including Hanrick, The Conductor, Pierrebal and The Betting Stig

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4 years 2 months ago #23 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
The -2.5 Sharks won't last I don't think - Rebels v Sharks Preview Here

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4 years 2 months ago #24 by southpaw
Cap has moved a bit on Sharks game due to Rebels team announced without Hodge and Toomua, Sharks team just announced, no Am in mdifeld which is a blow. Nohamba rewarded for excellent form with start @ 9, future Bok there.

Game at AFL ground, new for both sides, it's a match where total points or Sharks points overs will be my main focus, afternoon kick-off, conditions forecast to be ok.

But for now with cap around 5 the 1-12 is generally my rule of thumb play -

Sharks 1-12 @ 18/10

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4 years 2 months ago #25 by southpaw
Cap has moved a bit on Sharks game due to Rebels team announced without Hodge and Toomua, Sharks team just announced, no Am in mdifeld which is a blow. Nohamba rewarded for excellent form with start @ 9, future Bok there.

Game at AFL ground, new for both sides, it's a match where total points or Sharks points overs will be my main focus, afternoon kick-off, conditions forecast to be ok.

But for now with cap around 5 the 1-12 is generally my rule of thumb play -

Sharks 1-12 @ 18/10

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4 years 2 months ago #26 by mackem
Big thanks to Thoughts on Sports for his Super Rugby weekend preview and plays

goodforthegame.co.za/Thoughts-On-Sports/...-4-betting-tips.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 2 months ago #27 by mackem
Also thanks to Couch Critic for his Super Rugby weekend plays inc tryscorer specials (a few more will be added on Friday morning)



goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...-week-4-preview.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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4 years 2 months ago #28 by CLrugby
I wanted to skip that match but the Blues lineup is a complete non sense. Gave me headache to understand the logic of have your two 9-10 combos all starters... Solid upfront but nothing really threatening for the Bulls. I am going on the Bulls here even if I don’t like having money on them

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4 years 2 months ago #29 by R3V3R3NT_
Replied by R3V3R3NT_ on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
Thanks to the guys giving up their time for the Handicap show. I'm always in the car around that time but just caught up with the full show on the replay really enjoyed it.

Tough week I really don't like taking big minuses so bigger focus on points and in running bets for me . With 3 home teams having big caps ill be looking for a 10 point rule play. Crusaders discipline has been poor they have conceded 37 penalties averaging more than 12 per game which is the most in the competition. But their defense has been excellent conceding just 19 points per game. So all those
penalties are at the right end of the field. Ill take Highlanders under 17.5 here just missed 18.5 but its still cover for 2 converted tries and a penalty.

Other than that waiting on points quotes to come out but ill probably look to target Sharks overs.
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4 years 2 months ago #30 by Northerner
Replied by Northerner on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
Highlanders under 2.5 tries 10/11
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4 years 2 months ago #31 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
Crazy show last night - here is the PODCAST LINK and it is also available on major platforms like Spotify and Apple.

We were lucky to get 38 minutes of The Conductor as his load shedding was due at 21h00 - we had just been talking about the guy who flicks the switch falling asleep when this happened

Weekly Betting mail including a 13/1 acca out soon - CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE

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4 years 2 months ago #32 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
BULLS V BLUES preview and my focus here will be on points with a preview nibble at the HT/FT Blues/Bulls at 6/1 (was some 8/1 earlier in the week)

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4 years 2 months ago #33 by Pierrebal
Replied by Pierrebal on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
Good start so far by the Crusaders, last night’s HT call easily arriving and over 34 points don’t look to far away.

Added some Crusaders over 42 now, they look in the mood, and its only their own composure that can stop them.

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4 years 2 months ago #34 by RuggaBugga
Replied by RuggaBugga on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
Followed Pierrebal's golden Saders HT punt and trying to order an Oracle Vest online with the winnings :woohoo:

Scared money dont make money! BOOM!

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4 years 2 months ago #35 by bradie82
Sale has a good opportunity to move into the second place of the Premiership if they beat the Tigers tonight at the AJ Stadium. Rain is expected tonight in Manchester but Tigers are without the suspended Tom Youngs, the injured Jordan Taufua, Sione Kalamafoni and Ben White while Ellis Genge, George Ford, Jonny May, Manu Tuilagi and Ben Youngs are all involved in the 6 Nations – that’s almost the whole first choice squad out.
So despite the rain, I will give a go at Sale to get a bonus point @ 2.20 as I reckon they will target it

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4 years 2 months ago #36 by southpaw
Met office suggests rain will stop 8pm at Sale -

Leicester over 10.5 @ 1.87

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4 years 2 months ago #37 by southpaw

southpaw wrote: Met office suggests rain will stop 8pm at Sale -

Leicester over 10.5 @ 1.87


Closed out bet in running for all square, the rugby on display hurting my eyes and even if line around 12.5 at time there’s better rugby to enjoy tomorrow.

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4 years 2 months ago #38 by bradie82
Wales vs France

Over 4.5 penalties scored @ 1.83
A penalty scored in the first 10 min @ 1.90

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4 years 2 months ago #39 by R3V3R3NT_
Replied by R3V3R3NT_ on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
Bit of a rain bomb just hit Auckland and it is heading straight for Hamilton. It may pass through before game time but it looks like it will be a wet ball to kick of at least.

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4 years 2 months ago #40 by Zambusta

R3V3R3NT_ wrote: Bit of a rain bomb just hit Auckland and it is heading straight for Hamilton. It may pass through before game time but it looks like it will be a wet ball to kick of at least.


Yeah also just looked and it should have cleared by 7pm.

Brumbies Under 17.5

I think they will be defending for a lot of this game.

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4 years 2 months ago #41 by threepeat
Replied by threepeat on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby

Zambusta wrote:

R3V3R3NT_ wrote: Bit of a rain bomb just hit Auckland and it is heading straight for Hamilton. It may pass through before game time but it looks like it will be a wet ball to kick of at least.


Yeah also just looked and it should have cleared by 7pm.

Brumbies Under 17.5

I think they will be defending for a lot of this game.


Have to agree Brumbies Under 17.5 @ $1.87 (tab nz) is golden.

On time All Black and former Chiefs fly half David Hill has a new role with the Chiefs - assistant coach specialising in working with the attacking backs, particular the kickers and halves as the strategy for in game kicking to evolve. As the Brumbies play a very forward oriented game, expect Round 4 Chiefs to roll out a new aerial game tonight. European flavour from Hill, Gats and Cruden to mix things up and keeping Brumbie score in single digits.

Also golden is Chiefs -6.5 Half time @ $1.78

Confirming early bet of Chiefs -13.5 sweet as, and would recommend more at current -14.5 (went out to -16.5 with mump scare).

Top of the Aussie Table Brumbies v Top of NZ Table Chiefs (frankly not much press interest in the game). A no contest, Brumbies could not beat cellar dweller Landers last week with home advantage. Cow Bells will be ringing 20+ points win! No rain @ 7 Cheers 3P

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4 years 2 months ago #42 by R3V3R3NT_
Replied by R3V3R3NT_ on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
Chiefs have started slow in all three games. Down at half time to both Saders and Blues. Also Conceded first try/points to the Sunwolves. Ill wait for an in running opportunity I think.

Struggling to get a read on the Sharks/Rebels Sharks+2.5 in -5.5 is a big swing across two key numbers. The Sharks lineout is statistically the worst in the competition retaining just 72% of their own throws. Rebels by contrast have one of the best at 90% (best being Sunwolves at 92%). Thats going to be exploited by the Rebels and I cant see either side running away with it. Sharks 1-12 maybe the play here.

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4 years 2 months ago #43 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
Conditions look great for Reb v Sharks and gone o52.5

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4 years 2 months ago #44 by southpaw
Reds win both halves @ 15/20 main bet

1st try Sautia 8/1

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4 years 2 months ago #45 by coil
Some nice plays there Brent and South , after much deliberation going plus Jag's 8.5 at Sunbet 4/5. Also going a little lighter on the unders at under 48.5 at 7/10 with Sunbet.
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4 years 2 months ago - 4 years 2 months ago #46 by southpaw
I see it looks quite overcast in CT but i have not heard of rain yet. Think Stormers come out blocks quick like have in recent games -

Stormers over 12.5 1st half pts @ 8/10
Last edit: 4 years 2 months ago by southpaw.

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4 years 2 months ago #47 by southpaw
Italy v Scots - overs would have arrived 5/6 last times these 2 sides have met, perfect conditions in rome today, SH ref.

Over 46.5 pts @ 8/10
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4 years 2 months ago #48 by Brad Breath
Replied by Brad Breath on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
Also on overs in Scotland game, 47.5 @ 1.91

Wales -3 2nd half cap @ 1.91 (France have faded badly in both their games - Wales one of the fittest teams about)

And an interest treble on the 6N favourites all winning their games by 1-12
(Scotland, Wales, Ireland) @ 18s

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4 years 2 months ago #49 by southpaw
Taken more over 46.5 Italy v Scots.

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4 years 2 months ago #50 by Pierrebal
Replied by Pierrebal on topic Super Rugby wk 4, 6 Nations Rd 3 and other rugby
Jaco Visagie anytime try scorer 15/4. Bucketing down. Only Bulls tries will be from a maul.

Adding over 4 penalties 13/10 with these conditions

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