Super Rugby week 6, 6 Nations + other rugby

Brent Graham v TAB NZ Live v Rugby4Cast

Sunwolves +23.5 (+28.5) +10* v Brumbies * Rugby4 Cast not updated for moved venue.
Crusaders -19.5 (-22.5) -22 v Reds
Waratahs +6.5 v (+ 10.5) +3 Chiefs
Hurricanes -5.5 (-5.5) -11 v Blues
Rebels -7.5 (-5.5) +1 v Lions
Sharks -7.5 (-2.5) -1 v Jaguares
Bulls +3.5 (-3.5) -2 v Highlanders

3P Early Bet: (1) Hurricanes -5.5 Rampant Canes backline to expose Blues backline (Stormers caught napping last week).
(2) Jags +2.5, Four games on the road will have taken their toll on Sharks and have to travel home where Jags wait to pounce.

threepeat wrote: Brent Graham v TAB NZ Live v Rugby4Cast

Sunwolves +23.5 (+28.5) +10* v Brumbies * Rugby4 Cast not updated for moved venue.
Crusaders -19.5 (-22.5) -22 v Reds
Waratahs +6.5 v (+ 10.5) +3 Chiefs
Hurricanes -5.5 (-5.5) -11 v Blues
Rebels -7.5 (-5.5) +1 v Lions
Sharks -7.5 (-2.5) -1 v Jaguares
Bulls +3.5 (-3.5) -2 v Highlanders

3P Early Bet: (1) Hurricanes -5.5 Rampant Canes backline to expose Blues backline (Stormers caught napping last week).
(2) Jags +2.5, Four games on the road will have taken their toll on Sharks and have to travel home where Jags wait to pounce.

I would've jumped on the Chiefs -3.5 or -6.5, not rushing for the -10.5 even though i think they will beat the Waratahs by more than 15 points.

Out for the day guys and only caught last 20min of the first half. Not opening a new thread for this
Shimlas v CUT
Over 62.5 points @ 9/10

Week 6 of Super Rugby has arrived. Super Punting has been a very different experience for me in 2020 than 2019, which was "Golden". Cannot remember my local bookie, tab nz giving me a free bet the entire season. Have been given them for the last two weeks and with the Baby Blitzboks thrashing NZ in the semi-final in LA, I am expecting another in my inbox shortly.

My initial review of my mis-fortune focused on my out of character alignment with the Thursday night Handicap Best Bets over the last three weeks. When these align I am guilty of using them in my doubles, triples and quaddies.

My more indepth review has revealed that this is not the problem. They were all good bets and the sort you would repeat.

I have now decided that it is due to being in the first year of the rugby world cup four year cycle, whereas last year was year four in the cycle. I knew all the Kiwi players, all the Boks, all the Wallabies and even most all the bench players in Super Rugby. It is lack of knowledge this year that is holding me back. I am here to share and learn and make some dosh before the Rugby Championship starts.

Here is the Highlanders touring team for SA:
Aaron Smith, Kayne Hammington, Mitch Hunt, Josh Ioane, Teihorangi Walden, Ngane Punivai, Jona Nareki, Michael Collins, Tima Fainga’anuku, Scott Gregory, Josh McKay, Ayden Johnstone, Liam Coltman, Ash Dixon, Nathan Vella, Jeff Thwaites, Siate Tokolahi, Daniel Lienert-Brown, Manaaki Selby-Rickit, Jack Whetton, Will Tucker, Slade McDowall, Dillon Hunt, Shannon Frizell, Marino Mikaele Tu’u, Jesse Parete, Teariki Ben-Nicholas.

Only four AB's - Smith, Ioane, Coltman and Frizzell, with only Aaron Smith in a starting XV. Also Ioane is playing out of position (not a 12 imho) due to injury to Rob Thompson.

Failure to recruit: Aaron Major and Mark Hammett do not inspire confidence (Tony Brown entered the picture far too late, with everyone expecting him to join the AB coaching panel). Anyone on the move wants to play for Razor Robertson and the Crusaders or Gatland and the Chiefs especially if they aspire to be All Blacks. Canterbury and Tasman Mitre 10 Teams feed into the Crusaders.

Highlanders feeder teams Otago and Southland and both weak as.

Lack of Depth: Early season injuries have exposed the lack of depth. Captain Lenjtes gone for the season. Locks Dickson & Parkinson out with injury. Thompson out as mentioned above. McDowell and Tucker are new to the squad Mitre 10 player replacements and touring SA!

This is a weak weak NZ Super Rugby Team. Surely, even the lack lustre Bulls coached by a retard can beat this bunch of misfits at home in Pretoria?? Cheers 3P

Player time management is proving to be massively important already this season, after a RWC year. Stormers paid the price, sticking with almost same side every round, looked flat from 1st minute on weekend. Dobson should have rotated a bit at least like Sharks have been doing.

I look at this weekend and in terms of freshness the Chiefs must be busting to get out on the park. They play a Tahs side who were poor even in victory on weekend, and odd things going on there, coaches letting players run the training. All well and good when you play the Lions, but if that's their prep for this week vs Chiefs they will come unstuck well and truly.

Zero depth in Tahs ranks, a few key injury concerns. Face a Chiefs side who will be desperate to make right for the shock loss to Brumbies.

Chiefs -8.5 my 1st play of week.

Italy - Ireland 6 nations match is postponed
If it is abandoned, what happens to the outright bets on the Six Nations?
Anybody know?

Points plays will be my main focus point this weekend but I do like some caps.

Took a strike at Sharks to win with GG when they opened. In the 6 nations, I like the Scots +6.5 against France. France in form but Murrayfield a big hoodoo ground for them! Scots won last 3 visits against Les Bleus at home and it's always nice getting a 6 point start. Will also look to either team to win by 7 or less at 13/10.

Reds missing O'Connor at 10 but should cover the spread.

Bets so far

Brumbies -28 @ 1.91
Their scrum and maul will destroy the Wolves
Will look to take some alternative caps up to -50 also, think it could get ugly here

Chiefs -8 @ 1.91
Agree with the reasoning given re Chiefs, Tahs not convinced me of anything after their win last week

Hurricanes win @ 1.57
Hurricanes 5 @ 1.91
Blues not won an NZ derby away from home since 2013

Highlanders +3.5 @ 1.80
Better balance in the pack, if they don't win can see it being very close

This might go horribly wrong but after Chiefs minus my next best bet of weekend is Bulls win @ 5/6.

I just don’t rate this Highlanders side that’s been named, feel the Bulls are so desperate they will finally find some form this weekend.

Can't help feeling that the 60.5 will be breached in the Sunwolves game. The Sunwolves have conceded over 40 points on average, but they have started scoring now and I'm sure they'll be able to cross the line a fair times in this one...I'm in

Went Brumbies over 45.5.

Brumbies defense is good conceding the fewest average line-breaks per game just 3.5. Sunwolves by contrast conceed the most per game with 11. Im not sure how the Sunwolves will score here they wont break their line, they wont run around the brumbies and they wont beat them at set piece. Total over 60 maybe tough if Sunwolves don't contribute but I think Brumbies cruise pass 45 in this game/lineout drill.

Two bets for me this weekend. Going against the grain with the Sharks vs Jaguares. Sharks overrated IMO and i'm confident that the Jags will come away with a win here. So Jags outright at 15to10 and a double with them +4.5 onto Chiefs-10.5.

Gallagher Premiership
Sale vs London Irish
Sale over 26.5 @ 1.80 on 888

England U20 -13.5 at 1.80 looks a bet tonight. In Gloucester. Wales look poor and England u20's need to rack up a number to catch Ireland u20. They will be smarting from losing to Ireland and have to hope France u20 can do them a favour.

Chiefs cruised home today for a good start to weekend. Onto tomorrow, for now a simple bet -

Canes win
Rebels win
Sharks win
Bulls win

Multiple @ just under 5/1.

Main single bet = Bulls win @ 5/6.

Looking for overs in Pretoria once lines come out.

Going under 24.5 1st half of the Blue/Canes. I think these teams are closer thanit seems. Expecting a tight battle early.

Also took blues straight up cuz Im a sucker.

Over 48.5 @ 5/6 in Wellington

Over 35.5 @ 1.80 after 30 mins

Andrew Kellaway anytime @ evens
First 9/1
Double 5/1
Hat-trick 20/1

R3V3R3NT_ wrote: Going under 24.5 1st half of the Blue/Canes. I think these teams are closer thanit seems. Expecting a tight battle early.

Also took blues straight up cuz Im a sucker.

Nicely done Rev.

Lions over 10.5 1st half points @ 10/11.

Looking for an immediate bounce back after that poor Canes performance.

southpaw wrote:

R3V3R3NT_ wrote: Going under 24.5 1st half of the Blue/Canes. I think these teams are closer thanit seems. Expecting a tight battle early.

Also took blues straight up cuz Im a sucker.

Nicely done Rev.

Lions over 10.5 1st half points @ 10/11.

Looking for an immediate bounce back after that poor Canes performance.

Stiff South , went with you there and was sure they were going to take a lineout at the end grrrr

No value at the break in the Rebels match , have donated already .

later on will be on the Jags at the best plus as my main bet and unders on the total as a lesser one.

After that the Bulls match is a right dogs fest , will prob lean on the Bulls for the win but undecided at this stage , maybe an unders call will take preference and hope for a shite fest.

Northerner wrote: Andrew Kellaway anytime @ evens
First 9/1
Double 5/1
Hat-trick 20/1

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Northerner wrote:

Northerner wrote: Andrew Kellaway anytime @ evens
First 9/1
Double 5/1
Hat-trick 20/1

✅
✅
✅
❌

Nicely Done Notherner

Wasps over 26.5 @1.87 on 888
As per the previous week, Wasps are playing a fast rugby and at home with a dry forecast I could see some scoring but lower stake this week

nice calls Northerner!

Annoyed with Lions just before HT and have given back all Chiefs profits when really didn't fancy anything too much other than Chiefs and Bulls all weekend.

Going in for Sharks over 24.5 pts @ 10/11. Yes it's Durban but Sharks handling skills and attacking play are much improved vs past years, and pitch looks like a bowling green.

Tarka wrote: Two bets for me this weekend. Going against the grain with the Sharks vs Jaguares. Sharks overrated IMO and i'm confident that the Jags will come away with a win here. So Jags outright at 15to10 and a double with them +4.5 onto Chiefs-10.5.

Got that horribly wrong.....don't know if it's the Sharks that is so good or the Jags that is so kak! Bit of both....

Destroyed in that Saaaaks game , thought it would be a tight affair , total points also screwed me in the final minutes . Have backed Bulls minus 1.5 .

England over 27.5 @ 10/11

France over 10.5 first half points 10/11

They’ve scored at least 10 points in the first half their last 11 games in a row ...

Also gone smaller for for France over 0.5 tries in first 10 minutes 10/3 (Has won 9 of last 10 games)

Northerner wrote: France over 10.5 first half points 10/11

They’ve scored at least 10 points in the first half their last 11 games in a row ...

Also gone smaller for for France over 0.5 tries in first 10 minutes 10/3 (Has won 9 of last 10 games)

Thinking on similar lines.

Jocks have scored 67% of their points this 6N in the 2nd half

Have taken France -2 HT cap @ 1.91

Good match yesterday at twickenham. Onto today -

Waiting for conditions check closer to kick off but leaning overs on points. In meantime -

Man of match
Hogg @ 15/1
Willemse 25/1

Over 41.5 total points @ Murrayfield