Super Rugby Aotearoa

Hello to Everyone.

Looks like we have beaten Covid-19 in Aotearoa / New Zealand. Absolute best wishes to our Sanzar partners to achieve the same as soon as possible. Our Level ll lockdown is not far from normal life.

We welcome back Super Rugby and Rugby Betting.

First two games are on offer on TAB NZ:

Chiefs -9.5 away to Highlanders.

Blues -2.5 @ home v Hurricanes.

No spectators allowed, just Music, fake fans and Sky TV.

Blues were on a roll prior to Super Rugby ending and I think the empty stadium home advantage, plus Beauden Barrett, plus Canes have to fly in on the day, will be enough to give the Blues a close but comfortable WIN. Cheers 3P

Question: What happens to the betting markets prior to this pandemic?
Given that this new comp pertains to NZ teams only, how would this affect for example Sharks to win domestic conference for Super Rugby?
If they decide to follow suite and start a local comp as well, would that mean all bets start from scratch or be voided?
Would be a bit miffed knowing that I was on Sharks to win the SA conference and becomes voided or have to start all over again.

I like many others have same issue. I had substantial bet on Crusaders to win title. I checked with Betting Agency in Australia and they advised they are awaiting official word from the Governing Body (this would be SANZZAR) that Super Rugby is cancelled. At this stage they have only suspended it. Frustrating as they are now offering new markets on the winner of the NZ Aotearoa Super Rugby comp.

Bookie Basher wrote: Question: What happens to the betting markets prior to this pandemic?
Given that this new comp pertains to NZ teams only, how would this affect for example Sharks to win domestic conference for Super Rugby?
If they decide to follow suite and start a local comp as well, would that mean all bets start from scratch or be voided?
Would be a bit miffed knowing that I was on Sharks to win the SA conference and becomes voided or have to start all over again.

Would expect all outright/season bets to be voided. It will annoy many including myself as also on Sharks for conference, but cannot see any other outcome.

Agree it will be voided. Quite frankly it should have been done already. There's no way the season gets saved.

Hey everyone, itching for a bit of live sport back on the telly. What a treat to have the NZ tournament kick off on my birthday.

A couple of fancies for me.

Blues outright at 0.75. Beuden will be chomping at the bit to have a crack at his old side. Couple that with a Blues team hitting their straps pre COVID. They are turning into a great outfit and I expect Beuden to get the best out of Rieko.

Speculative plays on Rieko top Blues try scorer at 4/1. Beuden top points scorer at 6/1. Nehe top Highlanders try scorer at 16/1.

I'm also leaning towards Landers +10.5. Cap seems too big for an opening fixture of a NZ derby. Landers were poor but will be far better with Ioane back in the 10 jumper and a fully fit Rob Thompson on home turf. I can see this being a single score game and will definitely be backing the Landers on the HT +4.5 cap.

Brent Graham wrote: Cheers 3P very happy to have some live rugby back - might even get my spread betting account reloaded

Cheers Brent, be sure you understand impact of new Golden Point Rule for SR Aotearoa on any HTH bets.

Love the new Red Card Rule in this competition for fans, punters, coaches and players. Old Red Card almost always resulted in a loss to the offending team - costing punters plenty. Any serious offences not in the spirit of the game, especially against fly halves and other marquee players should be severely dealt with in the judiciary ie several weeks banishment.

New Rules are as follows: Source NZ Herald: New Zealand Rugby has confirmed two rule changes and one reinforced focus for the Super Rugby Aotearoa competition.

Golden point tiebreakers and the ability for teams to replace red carded players after 20 minutes are the major changes for the 10-week New Zealand derby competition that kicks off on June 13.

There will also be a renewed focus from referees on ensuring a fair contest at the breakdown.

If a match is tied after 80 minutes of regular time, the result will be decided by golden point. The first team to score - by drop goal, penalty kick, or try - during a 10-minute period of extra time will earn the win and the four competition points.

This weeks "Breakdown" is a must view. Eddie Jones outwits a panel of three All Black Greats. Cheers 3P

Thanks Southpaw and Hanrick for your replies. I saw an article yesterday stating that the Sunwolves have officially left Super Rugby. When do you think they will officially announce that it's over as I fear that SANZAAR may not? They are also talking Rugby Championship after the NZ and Australia domestic Super Rugby. I can't see anytime to fit in the resumption even if all borders did open which I doubt they will.

I have a running bet on 'Sunwolves under 1.5 wins in the regular season matches'. Do I have a leg to stand on to challenge if it gets voided?

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: I have a running bet on 'Sunwolves under 1.5 wins in the regular season matches'. Do I have a leg to stand on to challenge if it gets voided?

The bet should be voided and the stake returned. You can always look on the bright side though - The season was not halfway through and Sunwolves had already won one so the bet was looking pretty darn dodgy when the virus arrived.

Jordie Barrett has been ruled out of the Blues game with a shoulder injury. Line has moved out to Blues -3.5 Have added to my existing Blues -2.5.

Other changes include return of unlimited live crowd and removal of restriction to fly to venue on same day.

Leon McDonald has come of age as a First Tier Kiwi Coach, as indicated by the recent wins in SA and the recruitment of both Barrett and Carter. On the other hand Jason Holland has been in the shadow of John Plumtree and we know very little about his abilities as a Head Coach. Cheers 3P

Super Rugby Aotearoa Preview

Well well well, here we are, 3 months later and rugby union is finally returning. We are chomping at the bit to watch the pig skin be chucked around again!

The tournament will see the introduction of some law variations. There are some new rules, however the main aim of the variations is to get referees to be stricter about rules that were already in place.
- Ball carriers allowed one dynamic movement after being tackled
- Crawling will be penalised
- Referees number one priority will be making sure tacklers roll away towards the side line immediately after making a tackle
- Extra focus on the offside line
- Team can bring on a new player after 20 minutes of a player being red carded

Thanks @threepeat for putting up the early caps. They have stayed pretty much stayed the same.

Highlanders +8.5 vs Chiefs -8.5

Weather: Partly cloudy and very chilly, but it does not matter as the match will take place under the closed roof Forsyth Barr Stadium in Dunedin.

Highlanders: We do not have too many kind words to say about the Highlanders. They were horrible in the regular season, winning just 1 game in their 5 matches. They have made some new signings, including hot stepper Nehe Milner Skudder and 7s star Vilimoni Koroi to add to their backline (which has lost Naholo and Ben Smith in recent times). However, the problem for the Highlanders still lies with the no10 jersey (3 young and unproven fly halves) and their weak and non All Black pack.

Chiefs: The Chiefs had an interesting start to the regular season, with 4 wins from their 6 games, but wow they were looking good with a fully fit Damian McKenzie and Aaron Cruden linking up nicely. Adding in new signing Etene Nanai-Seturo to the backline it is going to be looking even better. Sam Cane is out injured for this first clash, but we’re looking forward to watching Lachlan Boshier pick up where he left off before Corona.

Betting angle: No doubt about it – this game is going to be won by the Chiefs. You cannot really compare the two teams at the moment. Highlanders will need their experienced players to come to the party to avoid this game getting ugly. The Chiefs minus 8.5 is probably the correct play. What is holding us back is the fact that there are going to be lots of beginning of the season errors, which will be enhanced by the slippery conditions under the roof due to the 70+% humidity. In saying that, matches at Dunedin and matches between the 2 teams have both been high scoring of late. We’re probably going to wait for a slow Chiefs starts and then look to back them on a smaller minus or over points line.

Blues -3.5 vs Hurricanes +3.5

Weather: Sunshine, some clouds and a light breeze predicted for the clash at Eden Park in Auckland.

Blues: The Blues had a good start to the regular super rugby season winning 5 of their 7 games. To improve on this win record they now have fit All Blacks number 10 Beauden Barrett ready to return to action against his former team. And let’s not forget the return of the GOAT, Dan Carter!

Hurricanes: The Hurricanes got thumped by the Stormers 27-0 in the opening match of the regular super rugby season, but after that they recovered well. Their only other loss was in fact against the Blues, where they had a red card and two yellow cards. Hot off the press is that Jordie Barrett may be out injured for this opening game, which will be a huge loss.

Betting angle: We can see there is already a huge buy in for the Blues minus. We are not the biggest fans of taking this pre-game. Hurricanes are a quality outfit with big players scattered all around the park. Jason Holland was slowly starting to find his feet as the new coach. If Jackson Garden-Bachop or Fletcher Smith can control the game from the no10 jersey then this is anyone’s match. We are going to wait in-play and try look to get a big plus for either team (around +8.5). We also think this game could be quite an arm-wrestle. Further, both teams don’t have great place kickers, so an unders points could be in the pipe line.

Follow us on twitter @son_of_a_punt for our final picks later in the week when more markets come available and our in-play tips during the game!

Hi Brent,
Just a thought for this Aorta stuff in NZ seeing as I'm an old feller and usually fast asleep at 9.30pm.
How about moving your show forward a day, if team selections are out by Wednesday ?
Otherwise I'll only get to watch the show after the first game on Friday morning..
Anyway, whatever way it goes all I've got to say is: Yippee - rugby's back
All the best punting guys.

son_of _a_punt wrote "The Chiefs minus 8.5 is probably the correct play. What is holding us back is the fact that there are going to be lots of beginning of the season errors, which will be enhanced by the slippery conditions under the roof due to the 70+% humidity"

Hello Barcelona,& Welcome Back. Thought you should know that ball handling conditions under the roof at Forsyth Barr Stadium are superb. You have Dunedin humidity mixed up with one of your more exotic sevens locations. With an outside temperature in the vicinity of 9 degrees the key variable is relative humidity not humidity. Humidity will be 70% but that means absolutely nothing. FB Stadium is never slippery, in fact conditions there are "sweet as" for running rugby.

Our players have been in a strict lockdown with nothing better to do than improve their ball handling skills. Some amazing trick shots have been posted on the internet, including Baudie kicking the ball over his pool and into his basketball net. The restart of the NRL is proof that there will not be many handling errors, just lack of match fitness. Cheers 3P

Haha @threepeat you may be right - we are a bit scarred after the Vancouver 7s at the closed BC Place Stadium where factors were similar! But that’s great to know, thanks for the info. Very excited to see some running rugby.

Glad you raised the point of match fitness. How does everyone see the last 15 minutes of these round 1 games playing out?
> Teams tired = players able to get past defenders easily = lots of points
OR
> Teams tired = players a bit lackluster = low points


Cheers
-SOAP

Highlanders - Chiefs
Exact Half/Full Time Double
Highlanders v Chiefs
@ 6.00 (I like this pay day!).

Same Gatling Gun Game Plan as round one v Blues.

Bring on Cruden early in second half, after "the zoo" home crowd has settled down, Chiefs back row can do the hard yards,
Cheers 3P

PS Anyone else not buying the Cane lower back injury story? Same guy that plays international rugby with a healed broken neck. Looks more like "rotation" and just not tipping the Highlanders that they are the weakest link.

Does anyone know which European books offer 3-pointer markets?

With the new rule changes I think there will be a lot of penalties while players adjust to the rules.

First points out in Europe and its high!

Highlanders 24.5
Chiefs 31.5
Total 55.5

Halftime not out, but straightforward halving says 27.5 first half points and an unders play as SoaP said last night.

Hopefully SA bookies come out at similar lines.

Hi all,

3 bets for the Chiefs v Landers game:

1) Chiefs -2.5 2nd half handicap @1.82

2) Under 26.5 HT total points @1.85

3) Under 55.5 FT total points @1.86

Zambusta wrote: Does anyone know which European books offer 3-pointer markets?

With the new rule changes I think there will be a lot of penalties while players adjust to the rules.

Bet365 offers it - over 2.5 penalties scored @ 2.50 for the first game

@Pierre
Bet365 has a cut of 26.5 HT for the first game

Also taking the under 55.5 total points in Dunedin. With Josh Ioane out for the Highlanders I like the unders even more.

Following the trend on the under HT and adding a bet on penalties
Under 27.5 HT @ 1.80
A penalty scored before 20” @ 1.67
Both on WH

bradie82 wrote:

Zambusta wrote: Does anyone know which European books offer 3-pointer markets?

With the new rule changes I think there will be a lot of penalties while players adjust to the rules.

Bet365 offers it - over 2.5 penalties scored @ 2.50 for the first game

@Pierre
Bet365 has a cut of 26.5 HT for the first game

Unfortunately they are one of the bookies I can't access from the Netherlands

Zambusta wrote:

bradie82 wrote:

Zambusta wrote: Does anyone know which European books offer 3-pointer markets?

With the new rule changes I think there will be a lot of penalties while players adjust to the rules.

Bet365 offers it - over 2.5 penalties scored @ 2.50 for the first game

@Pierre
Bet365 has a cut of 26.5 HT for the first game

Unfortunately they are one of the bookies I can't access from the Netherlands

Hi Zambusta
Please check if you have access to William Hill as you would find some interesting odds in the #YourOdds tab
Also bwin and betway are worth having a look of you do have access, so is sporting as they could offer such bet (not sure for this competition)

bradie82 wrote:

Zambusta wrote:

bradie82 wrote:

Zambusta wrote: Does anyone know which European books offer 3-pointer markets?

With the new rule changes I think there will be a lot of penalties while players adjust to the rules.

Bet365 offers it - over 2.5 penalties scored @ 2.50 for the first game

@Pierre
Bet365 has a cut of 26.5 HT for the first game

Unfortunately they are one of the bookies I can't access from the Netherlands

Hi Zambusta
Please check if you have access to William Hill as you would find some interesting odds in the #YourOdds tab
Also bwin and betway are worth having a look of you do have access, so is sporting as they could offer such bet (not sure for this competition)

Thanks Bradie. Some interesting markets on William Hill. I signed up last night but still waiting for verification to be processed.
This one really caught my eye for todays chiefs Highlanders game:
Under 60 Points, Under 8 Tries, Over 1 Successful Penalty Kick @2.5

I'm going with the same bets as son_of_a_punt. Also Sunbet is running a promotion on the first try scored so I put some beer money on that.

So happy that rugby is starting again.

In terms of interesting bets - Sportingbet has under 100.5 points for both games combined at evens... any thoughts on that?

Ive gone for Ash Dixon anytime, first, first for highlanders and double. 7/2, 28/1, 12/1 25/1. Spreadex also opened with him to score anytime at 10/1 but was restricted to small amounts

If you bet on the points separately then you can get better value if you are going to go for unders. If you go overs then the Sportingbet one may be better. Not sure, you'll have to check.

Thanks Couch, for Ash Dixon - pow

Zambusta wrote:

bradie82 wrote:

Zambusta wrote:

bradie82 wrote:

Zambusta wrote: Does anyone know which European books offer 3-pointer markets?

With the new rule changes I think there will be a lot of penalties while players adjust to the rules.

Bet365 offers it - over 2.5 penalties scored @ 2.50 for the first game

@Pierre
Bet365 has a cut of 26.5 HT for the first game

Unfortunately they are one of the bookies I can't access from the Netherlands

Hi Zambusta
Please check if you have access to William Hill as you would find some interesting odds in the #YourOdds tab
Also bwin and betway are worth having a look of you do have access, so is sporting as they could offer such bet (not sure for this competition)

Thanks Bradie. Some interesting markets on William Hill. I signed up last night but still waiting for verification to be processed.
This one really caught my eye for todays chiefs Highlanders game:
Under 60 Points, Under 8 Tries, Over 1 Successful Penalty Kick @2.5

That was actually mine with the penalty before 20” and the over 1.5 penalties scored
This is what I like with WH - with the yourodds, you just twitt them and they come with an odd - don t have to take it but if you feel its value, then its available
The YourOdds in unfortunately not available on every game but guess it will be on that competition and potentially on the Aussie one

Thanks everyone. Two of the three bets win pus got first try scorer which is nice. Took a bet on the Chiefs during the game though so overall just a small profit on the game.

So great to watch rugby again!

bradie82 wrote:

Zambusta wrote:

bradie82 wrote:

Zambusta wrote:

bradie82 wrote:

Zambusta wrote: Does anyone know which European books offer 3-pointer markets?

With the new rule changes I think there will be a lot of penalties while players adjust to the rules.

Bet365 offers it - over 2.5 penalties scored @ 2.50 for the first game

@Pierre
Bet365 has a cut of 26.5 HT for the first game

Unfortunately they are one of the bookies I can't access from the Netherlands

Hi Zambusta
Please check if you have access to William Hill as you would find some interesting odds in the #YourOdds tab
Also bwin and betway are worth having a look of you do have access, so is sporting as they could offer such bet (not sure for this competition)

Thanks Bradie. Some interesting markets on William Hill. I signed up last night but still waiting for verification to be processed.
This one really caught my eye for todays chiefs Highlanders game:
Under 60 Points, Under 8 Tries, Over 1 Successful Penalty Kick @2.5

That was actually mine with the penalty before 20” and the over 1.5 penalties scored
This is what I like with WH - with the yourodds, you just twitt them and they come with an odd - don t have to take it but if you feel its value, then its available
The YourOdds in unfortunately not available on every game but guess it will be on that competition and potentially on the Aussie one

Yeah it was a great bet...annoyed I wasn't able to get on it.

Nice work today guys. Didn’t get to post due to kids duty but had followed the newsletter -2.5 2nd half cap and somehow scraped home on over 54.5 @ 8/10 with Sunbet. Points dried up and thought I was doomed after a cocky half time tweet about how much attacking rugby there was. Sorry I missed Couch’s Dixon try punt, didn’t get time to read his preview. Top call Couch.

Tomorrow I’ve gone -
Either team win 7 or less @ just over 6/4 with Sunbet as main interest
Small bet 1st try Dup Kirifi 33/1

Tempted by overs given ground and day kick off but ref puts me off. Think Kirifi could be winning a few penalties for Canes given his breakdown prowess.

Blues to win and under 51.5 total points at 18/10. FIIIIIIIIIREEEEEE!!!!!!

Think the Canes are good value, they have an excellent recent record at Eden park.
Can see pressure/expectation getting to the Blues.

Lomax, Kirifi & Garden-Bachop key players.

Main bet Canes +5.5 @ 1.95
Canes win @ 3.20
Smalls Canes 1-5 @ 8s

Have taken some 9s outright too.

Took some +14 in play, but that was painful

Well played Blues and unders backers