Super Rugby Aotearoa Week 8, Australia Week 5

Big strike on Chiefs plus 8.5. Alaimalo is probably gone for a while but expect chiefs to be massively up for their last game for the season in Hamilton.

Chiefs only lost 1 game by more than this cap.

Hopefully a bit of rain around to keep things even closer.

Agree Bdub , I also think the Chiefs and Highlanders are value this weekend.
Strike on Chiefs plus 8,5 and Highlanders plus 5,5. This Blues team live on a knife edge, too much penalties.

No use backing the Chiefs +, unless you are of the opinion that they might win this, and current form do not suggest.

The Crusaders have not lost back to back matches against NZ opposition since March 2018. Team with the worst home record vs the best away record in current competition.

I do however agree it will be very tight, but risk/reward trade off, I will be on Crusaders by 1 - 12.

After a very bad weekend... should of stuck with my original gut predictions!

This week I would say Rebels to beat Western Force, either 1-10 Margin or 11-20.

Brumbies 1-12 Margin against the Reds.

Crusaders 1-12 Margin against the Chiefs.

Safe bet for Highlanders vs Blues, slap a bet on Either team by 6 points or less.

Betting Brumbies (-6.5) Points Start (a) Brumbies v Reds@ 1.73

Home field advanate in cold July weather in Canberra got to be worth a try!?
Queenslanders hate this kind of weather.
Brumbies are the far better coached TEAM.
Bet suppported by R4C, RVision, StatsChat algorithms.
Very hard to beat the bookies on margin at the moment, so have dropped below line of -7.5 to safety of a converted try -6.5
Cheers 3P

threepeat wrote: Betting Brumbies (-6.5) Points Start (a) Brumbies v Reds@ 1.73

Home field advanate in cold July weather in Canberra got to be worth a try!?
Queenslanders hate this kind of weather.
Brumbies are the far better coached TEAM.
Bet suppported by R4C, RVision, StatsChat algorithms.
Very hard to beat the bookies on margin at the moment, so have dropped below line of -7.5 to safety of a converted try -6.5
Cheers 3P

Quite fancy that line myself but you lost me at 'Queenslanders hate this kind of weather'
How many of these players are genuinely from Queensland?

Bookie Basher wrote:

threepeat wrote: Betting Brumbies (-6.5) Points Start (a) Brumbies v Reds@ 1.73

Home field advanate in cold July weather in Canberra got to be worth a try!?
Queenslanders hate this kind of weather.
Brumbies are the far better coached TEAM.
Bet suppported by R4C, RVision, StatsChat algorithms.
Very hard to beat the bookies on margin at the moment, so have dropped below line of -7.5 to safety of a converted try -6.5
Cheers 3P

Quite fancy that line myself but you lost me at 'Queenslanders hate this kind of weather'
How many of these players are genuinely from Queensland?

Basher, this is very much a Queensland Reds team made up of largely Queensland born Aussies (over 50% in Round 3 starting team) and naturalized Queenslanders (30%) who have grown up in the Queensland Junior Rugby System for more than five years. Add in three Pacific Islanders who do not like Canberra weather in July lol. Brad Thorn has bought a lot of the players with him from Queensland Country and makes no effort to recruit outsiders. You may not know that JOC is a Queensland native! Cheers 3P

Fair enough! Come on the Brumbies

Have boarded the Chiefs plus train, +9.5 @ 1.89

Cruden starts, and Ta'avao is back, named on the bench.
Moody & Whetu Douglas out for the Saders.

Chiefs win wouldnt surprise here.

Western Force vs Rebels

We having a strike on over 44.5 points in the match @1.75.

Conditions look great for tomorrow's game. If the Force keep it close then both teams will probably trade sticks and keep the scoreboard ticking over. If the Force don't keep it close, then the Rebels will probably be going after a bonus point try if they have a good lead. So either way we see it - we think there are going to be points.

Let's hope for an exciting game of rugby in the Australian competition for a change!

Over 44.5 available @ 1.91 on Betfair Sportsbook if people are able to get on

Seen the 44.5, also very interested in this and the 9/10. But waiting for best Rebels line, worried about Force contribution to points tally.

southpaw wrote: Seen the 44.5, also very interested in this and the 9/10. But waiting for best Rebels line, worried about Force contribution to points tally.

I’ve gone for over 26.5 rebels at 4/5 with both Sporting bet and Spreadex

Last Chance to get on the Koroibete Express
Betting Koroibete Top Try Scorer Super Rugby AU Regular Season @ $12

The SRAU Try Competition Ladder:
3 Filipo Dauguna (Reds) 6.50
3 Folau Fainga'a (Bru) 7.00
2 Tom Wright (Bru) 7.50
2 Byron Ralston (Force) 10.0

Tonight Koroibete scores at least one try versus the Force, moving his SRAU try tally to 2. Putting him in easy striking range of top of the ladder. Beats more defenders than any other player on top of try ladder. Just give him the ball Rebels. Top try scorer for Wallabies RWC 2019. Cheers 3P

Northerner wrote:

southpaw wrote: Seen the 44.5, also very interested in this and the 9/10. But waiting for best Rebels line, worried about Force contribution to points tally.

I’ve gone for over 26.5 rebels at 4/5 with both Sporting bet and Spreadex

Thanks northerner.gave up waiting, took over 44.5 @ 5/6 last night, so am on the total overs bandwagon.

A fast start to game would be nice.

I m on the over train as well and expect a fast start

Over 44.5 @ 1.75
Over 27.5 Rebels @ 1.87
Over 21.5 HT @ 1.91

southpaw wrote:

Northerner wrote:

southpaw wrote: Seen the 44.5, also very interested in this and the 9/10. But waiting for best Rebels line, worried about Force contribution to points tally.

I’ve gone for over 26.5 rebels at 4/5 with both Sporting bet and Spreadex

Thanks northerner.gave up waiting, took over 44.5 @ 5/6 last night, so am on the total overs bandwagon.

A fast start to game would be nice.

added 1st try Uelese 12/1

Very lucky on that over 44.5

Can’t believe they don’t get to kick the conversion on a try in super time... need them to win by more than 5... what a joke haha

KingTetley69 wrote: Very lucky on that over 44.5

Can’t believe they don’t get to kick the conversion on a try in super time... need them to win by more than 5... what a joke haha

My over 44.5 was resulted as a loss given I think the rules state 80 minutes only

Bookie Basher wrote:

KingTetley69 wrote: Very lucky on that over 44.5

Can’t believe they don’t get to kick the conversion on a try in super time... need them to win by more than 5... what a joke haha

My over 44.5 was resulted as a loss given I think the rules state 80 minutes only

This differs from bookie to bookie. Some bookies state that overtime is included and others not

hanrick wrote:

Bookie Basher wrote:

KingTetley69 wrote: Very lucky on that over 44.5

Can’t believe they don’t get to kick the conversion on a try in super time... need them to win by more than 5... what a joke haha

My over 44.5 was resulted as a loss given I think the rules state 80 minutes only

This differs from bookie to bookie. Some bookies state that overtime is included and others not

I clearly chose an unfortunate bookie lol

Looks like we both got screwed on the over time then!

My accumulator is still running though:

Rebels (1-10)
Brumbies (1-12)
Crusaders (1-12)
Highlanders vs Blues (Either team by 6 points or less)

Fingers crossed!

Sunbet pay on Inclusive super time for points markets, if anyone interested.

Tomorrow I’m fully aligned with Hanrick and Brent on Brumbies, they are looking ominous on form and just carry too much for Reds in my view.

Brumbies -5.5 @ 17/20

Chiefs over 10.5 1st half points @ 21/20

Chiefs vs Crusaders, small bet both teams to score the same amount of tries at 13/2

Half Time Saders over 31.5 tab nz

Already got 17! Cheers 3P

Fired Brumbies over 27.5pts @ 8/10, will be my biggest bet of weekend.

Don't like moaning about refs, but Chiefs absolutely robbed by Ben O'Keeffe

Reds under 20.5 points at 0.86/1

Took a knock there, Brumbies were so unbelievably crap after the break, should have put it out for line out just before half time. Also the follow on the newsletter Brumbies minus compounding a dreadful result.

Highlanders vs Blues
Highlanders over 10.5 HT @ 1.88

bradie82 wrote: Highlanders vs Blues
Highlanders over 10.5 HT @ 1.88

I had the same thought but on the second half points of over 10,5.

Highlanders have always been comeback kings...I'll never forget them scoring 21 points in the last 5 minutes to come from way behind and win against the Cheetahs years ago.

I reckon the Blues will go ahead and the Highlanders will chase second half.

Zambusta wrote:

bradie82 wrote: Highlanders vs Blues
Highlanders over 10.5 HT @ 1.88

I had the same thought but on the second half points of over 10,5.

Highlanders have always been comeback kings...I'll never forget them scoring 21 points in the last 5 minutes to come from way behind and win against the Cheetahs years ago.

I reckon the Blues will go ahead and the Highlanders will chase second half.

Landers tend to score more in the first half at home but agree with you that the 10.5 second half seems interesting too especially cause its 12.5/13.5 elsewhere

bradie82 wrote: Highlanders vs Blues
Highlanders over 10.5 HT @ 1.88

I have been looking at the points lines and like your choice.
Best I could get was Over 11.5 HT @1.83.
Fraser is big on yellow cards which helps overs. Anymore intel on Fraser's Unders/ Overs Record?
Ash Dixon interview indicates that they intend to close down Blues space.
This could translate to Dixon first Landers try scorer. Cheers 3P

Way to go Brad! Plus bonus, thank you Ash Dixon

Time to make more $ in the second half!

Good punting in the first half everyone! Looking to take some U68.5 points in play

In Play Blues -13.5 Current score 16-29 Cheers 3P

threepeat wrote: In Play Blues -13.5 Current score 16-29 Cheers 3P

Adding/ Covering with Over (53.5)
Total Points
Highlanders v Blues

For Insurance!

son_of_a_punt wrote: Good punting in the first half everyone! Looking to take some U68.5 points in play

Well done SOAP, yet another game of two halves! Cheers 3P

I took my bet for Crusaders vs Chiefs total points 48,5/50.5 over 50.5 at 1/1but when I place my bet at wsb it shows (home) and my bet lost. Is it a technical problem or is wsb hoop wurm bollie