Super Rugby AU week 9, Pro 14, Eng Prem 28-30 August

From other thread -

Rebels 5/6 win, taken this morning. Cannot see the Tahs getting one over them. Sides done well of late after bye week.

Taken Rebels to win at 8/10

Couple of Pro 14 plays for me:

Dragons +6.5 vs Scarlets
Benetton outright at 15/20
Ospreys +7.5

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Couple of Pro 14 plays for me:

Dragons +6.5 vs Scarlets
Benetton outright at 15/20
Ospreys +7.5

In agreement on Benetton. Taken a big strike at 7/10. I expect a far stronger side to face Zebre in Parma.

Loved the show last night , Leicester .... A team I love to hate , huge changes and huge expectations .... but with Gordeon Murphy still in some way involved I'll oppose them until they prove me wrong ..sadly fell into the huge plus of 16.5 against Bath last time out and I won't be caught again. London irish all the way on the best plus ...currently 12.5 but will take 8/10 the plus 13.5 at game time.

No feel on the Sarries game with the plus having been gobbled up, point spread climbing a bit too . No bet for now .

In full agreement with the panel and will take 0.73 minus 4.5 Worcester.

Lastly , in the saints game might take a speculative unders 51.5 at 0.71 .

I'm gonna take some Glasgow +6 @1.91 and Glasgow on the board @ 2.62

Making the assumption that Edinburgh will proceed with a large turnover before their semi final in 10 days vs Ulster and Glasgow should bring their best team as this is their last game for more than a month now.

This is purely speculation but worth a shot

Guinness Pro 14 (performance 60/95 = 63%)

Round 15 mostly dead rubbers but only play for me.

Dragons vs Scarlets -6.5
Stig line: -12
Tip: Scarlets minus 6.5 @ 0.92
Book: playabets

TheBettingStig wrote: Guinness Pro 14 (performance 60/95 = 63%)

Round 15 mostly dead rubbers but only play for me.

Dragons vs Scarlets -6.5
Stig line: -12
Tip: Scarlets minus 6.5 @ 0.92
Book: playabets

Been eyeing up this one and can't work out why the cap is so low, its -5.5 here in the UK.
Scarlets need a try bonus point to have any chance of making the semis.
Dean Ryan has openly said he'll be rotating his squad to give them game time before their Challenge Cup QF v Bristol.
I underestimated the Scarlets last week, thought they'd be a bit undercooked, but they looked sharp - (the Blues were woeful though).
Weather in Newport looks good which will suit the Scarlets.

What am I missing??

In case the bookies offers us some early odds, here are some information on the next team news based on the rules in place (a player cannot start 3 games in a week and no player to play more than 180 minutes if selected in a matchday squad 3 times in a week

Saints – no players impacted by the rules in place
Bath –Redpath and Rokoduguni probably out as they played already 160 minutes – for sure they cannot start the game as 2 start this week already
Wasps – no players impacted by the rules in place
Sale – Jono Ross will not start the game and probably be out with Solomona as both have played roughly 150 minutes in the past 2 games
Bristol – Sheedy, Purdy, Sinckler, Hugues, Radradra, Luatua are not eligible to start the next game, with Sheedy and Radradra probably out, with a ? on Hugues, Sinckler and Luatua to play at all
Exeter – Woodburn cannot start the game and will probably be out with 150 minutes played
Leicester – Freddie Williams and Wallace could be out as they played already most of the 2 last games
London Irish – Tuisue, Meehan, Cowan, Nott, Collins, Jackson, De Chaves and Homer are not eligible to start and will probably be out having played 130/160 min each
Saracens – Obatoyinbo is the only player that will probably be out
Gloucester - Louis Rees-Zammit is the only player that will probably be out
Worcester – Pennell, du Preez, Weir, Venter and Heward not eligible for s start on Saturday and probably out with more than 155 minutes each played
Harlequins - Aaon Morris is the only player that will probably be out

Below are my caps for the week end games

Saturday
Sale (-3.5)vs Bristol
Sunday
Harlequins (-4.5)vs Saints
Exeter (-17.5) vs Worcester
Gloucester (-6.5) vs Tigers
Monday
London Irish (+15.5) vs Saracens
Bath (-5.5) vs Wasps

North v South Island Match Result, Betting South @ $2.29 tab nz
For multis betting South Island +3.5 @1.87
Game is on September 5, so get on now before payout reduced. North does not deserve to be favourite.

For those not from NZ this game is basicly Saders v the Blues, Chiefs & Canes, with nice additions of Jordie (Canes) at fullback, Weber (Chiefs) @ 9, Frizzell @6 (Landers) and Laulala (Chiefs) & Lomax (Canes) in the front row mix, to the South Squad. Squads are selected on where you first played your Provincial Rugby, now called Mitre 10 Cup. Game doubles as an AB trial so will be serious m8 v m8 stuff.

Only one week to prepare teams and AB assistant coaches for South very familiar with Sader game plan, which they will use! Nice to have Jordie at the back as game will be played in Wellington under projected Covid19 rules. Suggest North cannot quite gel in one week and will play a Barbarian style of rugby. Cheers 3P

SOUTH SQUAD
Hookers: Liam Coltman (Otago), Andrew Makalio (Tasman) and Codie Taylor (Canterbury).

Props: George Bower (Otago), Alex Hodgman (Canterbury), Nepo Laulala (Canterbury), Tyrel Lomax (Tasman) and Joe Moody (Canterbury).

Locks: Mitchell Dunshea (Canterbury), Manaaki Selby-Rickit (Southland) and Samuel Whitelock (Canterbury and captain).

Loose forwards: Tom Christie (Canterbury), Shannon Frizell (Tasman), Dillon Hunt (Otago), Reed Prinsep (Canterbury) and Tom Sanders (Canterbury).

Halfbacks: Finlay Christie (Tasman), Mitchell Drummond (Canterbury) and Brad Weber (Otago).

First five-eighths: Josh Ioane (Otago) and Richie Mo'unga (Canterbury).

Midfielders: Braydon Ennor (Canterbury), Leicester Faingaanuku (Tasman), Jack Goodhue (Canterbury) and Sio Tomkinson (Otago)

Outside backs: Jordie Barrett (Canterbury), George Bridge (Canterbury) and Will Jordan (Tasman).

Taking Glasgow to beat Edinburgh at 13/10

Also Glasgow -3.5 at 2/1.

Edinburgh have made 10 changes and Glasgow at full strength.

Thanks to SOAP for the heads up on this one!

TheBettingStig wrote: Guinness Pro 14 (performance 60/95 = 63%)

Round 15 mostly dead rubbers but only play for me.

Dragons vs Scarlets -6.5
Stig line: -12
Tip: Scarlets minus 6.5 @ 0.92
Book: playabets

Pity that you don't want to handicap "dead rubbers", TBS.
Don't know what some punters have against betting on them - the bookies will still have odds, and their handicap line will be as always - way, way out.
I'd rather back a 15/10 shot in a dead rubber than some nag in a 10 horse field.

kompos wrote:
Pity that you don't want to handicap "dead rubbers", TBS.
Don't know what some punters have against betting on them - the bookies will still have odds, and their handicap line will be as always - way, way out.
I'd rather back a 15/10 shot in a dead rubber than some nag in a 10 horse field.

In my 48 years of horse bets and 34 years of sports betting I have to be honest - I'm taking beers on the nag long before I risk money on a dead rubber.

The Vann wrote:

kompos wrote:
Pity that you don't want to handicap "dead rubbers", TBS.
Don't know what some punters have against betting on them - the bookies will still have odds, and their handicap line will be as always - way, way out.
I'd rather back a 15/10 shot in a dead rubber than some nag in a 10 horse field.

In my 48 years of horse bets and 34 years of sports betting I have to be honest - I'm taking beers on the nag long before I risk money on a dead rubber.

I have been punting for 60 years, and in 1966 Sea Cottage (in the Cape Guineas) taught me a very expensive (yet eventually a very profitable) lesson about punting odds on shots and nags in general

kompos wrote:

The Vann wrote:

kompos wrote:
Pity that you don't want to handicap "dead rubbers", TBS.
Don't know what some punters have against betting on them - the bookies will still have odds, and their handicap line will be as always - way, way out.
I'd rather back a 15/10 shot in a dead rubber than some nag in a 10 horse field.

In my 48 years of horse bets and 34 years of sports betting I have to be honest - I'm taking beers on the nag long before I risk money on a dead rubber.

I have been punting for 60 years, and in 1966 Sea Cottage (in the Cape Guineas) taught me a very expensive (yet eventually a very profitable) lesson about punting odds on shots and nags in general

Brilliant K. Got Jollify @ 11/1 in the 67 July which probably started me on a life of punting. You ever find yourself in the Hermanus area you get hold of me and we will sort out the entire punting world.

Quite fancy that under 17.5 points line too. Very strong case if one looks at the head to heads between these two in last 4 clashes. Force averaging a paltry sum of 10pts based on those fixtures against the Brumbies (0,17,10,14)

kompos wrote:

TheBettingStig wrote: Guinness Pro 14 (performance 60/95 = 63%)

Round 15 mostly dead rubbers but only play for me.

Dragons vs Scarlets -6.5
Stig line: -12
Tip: Scarlets minus 6.5 @ 0.92
Book: playabets

Pity that you don't want to handicap "dead rubbers", TBS.
Don't know what some punters have against betting on them - the bookies will still have odds, and their handicap line will be as always - way, way out.
I'd rather back a 15/10 shot in a dead rubber than some nag in a 10 horse field.

Yes these dead rubbers won't see much of my money but herewith the algorith predictions for the rest of the games as requested:


Guinness Pro 14 (performance 60/95 = 63%)

Edinburgh vs Glasgow -1.5
Stig line: -7
Tip: Glasgow to win

Ulster vs Leinster -5.5
Stig line: -8
Tip: Leinster minus 5.5

Munster 10.5 v Connacht
Stig line: 15
Tip: Munster minus 10.5

Cardiff 5.5 vs Ospreys
Stig line: 3
Tip: Ospreys plus 5.5

Zebre vs Benneton -3.5
Stig line: -10
Tip: Benneton minus 3.5

thanks TBS
I saw them on your twitter account soon after I posted my "complaint"

Under 25.5 1st half points at 10/11 in the Brumbies vs Force game

Western Force ruining our bets again. You never know what you're gonna get with this team.

Halftime, Brumbies -15.5 at 17/20 and smaller bet over 6.5 match tries at 0.96/1

hanrick wrote: Under 25.5 1st half points at 10/11 in the Brumbies vs Force game

East Money Hanrick !!

Dangerous to take on Leinster, but have taken Ulster +10 @ 1.91 off the back of team news.
Line moving down fast.

Summary of my Pro14 plays:

Thought I took Dragons +6.5 but didn't actually go through.
On Ospreys board at 18/10 and +7.5
Ulster board at 2.1/1 and +7.5
Ulster over 20.5 points

Munster -11.5
Benetton -3.5

Saracens -9.5 @1.82 on 888

Was expecting 15.5 so jumping on it

bradie82 wrote: Saracens -9.5 @1.82 on 888

Was expecting 15.5 so jumping on it

Joining on this!

Absolute frenzy of betting this arvie with lines shifting.

Taking Exeter -26.5 vs Worcester. Score could be huge.

Taken some tigers +20.5 v Gloucester, but it is down to 18.5 at time of writing

Gallagher Premiership

(performance since return to play 13/18 = 72% and 2019/2020 season 59/96 = 61%)

Sale 17.5 vs Bristol
Stig line: 20
Tip: Sale minus 17.5

Harlequins 13.5 vs Northampton
Stig line: 8
Tip: Northampton plus 13.5

Exeter 28.5 vs Worcester
Stig line: 33
Tip: Exeter minus 28.5

Gloucester 19.5 vs Leicester
Stig line: 24
Tip: Gloucester minus 19.5

London Irish vs Saracens -12.5
Stig line: 18
Tip: Saracens minus 12.5

Bath 13.5 vs Wasps
Stig line: 16
Tip: Bath minus 13.5

hanrick wrote: Halftime, Brumbies -15.5 at 17/20 and smaller bet over 6.5 match tries at 0.96/1

Amazing well done Hanrick, truly the original pro-tipster

bradie82 wrote: I'm gonna take some Glasgow +6 @1.91 and Glasgow on the board @ 2.62

Making the assumption that Edinburgh will proceed with a large turnover before their semi final in 10 days vs Ulster and Glasgow should bring their best team as this is their last game for more than a month now.

This is purely speculation but worth a shot

Not speculation! Classy piece of early analysis by Monsieur Bradie82. My tab account thanks you. Multis to come!
Merci beaucoup 3P

On the exeter game i would suggest taking exeter minus 13.5 ht @ 1.83. Men against boys. Full blown power exeter squad taking on worcester b squad. But exeter have a weaker looking bench so i suspect they will take their foot off the pedal once theyve done enough and minus 28.5 means nothing to them.

Same with gloucester on the ht cap. Can get -11.5 thats two tries and allows for a missed conversion. Leicester named an unknown team of second stringers. But again Gloucester could take their foot of the gas once theyve done enough, also a weak bench. These high caps are just so risky to expect teams to go 100% for 80 when they lead by enough.

Rebels vs Waratahs

I cannot see any reason why this match shouldn't go into overs.
Both teams have to bounce back from disappointing and poor scoring performances in their last matches.
The total doesn't look too big, the Rebels are due for an over, the Waratahs are no strangers to overs this season, the weather is absolutely beautiful, and there's something about spring in the air (how's that for reasoning!).

Bet 1: Over 46.5 points @1.90
Bet 2: Over 5.5 tries @1.80

Agree with you Quill, also think there might be points in this one.

Over 2.5 1st half tries at 8/10 and over 5.5 total tries at 8/10 for me. Bigger on the 1st half tries

Hanrick on over while I see under - man that world is mad

Scarlets over 3.5 tries @ 1.66
They need a bonus point try so can t see them attempting any penalties - huge value here

First scoring team Bristol @ 2.8
To me socring first is always a 50/50, maybe a 55/45 here with the team news but at this odds, I have to do a small play on it

I started the week very much in the Rebels camp, but as has been highlighted numerous times this Australian conference is a maze of inconsistencies. I'm trying to make a case for the Waratahs but I just can't which makes the call even more dangerous.

I'm probably going to leave the outcome and focus on the points line. Both teams will want to start well , small play under 23.5 first half points and total under 47.5 for less.

coil wrote: I started the week very much in the Rebels camp, but as has been highlighted numerous times this Australian conference is a maze of inconsistencies. I'm trying to make a case for the Waratahs but I just can't which makes the call even more dangerous.

I'm probably going to leave the outcome and focus on the points line. Both teams will want to start well , small play under 23.5 first half points and total under 47.5 for less.

Died like a mozzie , left the REbels alone but still got butchered.

Saints +13.5 off the back of team news.

Strong side with Isiekwe, Ludlam and Gibson in the pack. Expecting a bounce back from the Saints.

Sale over 33.5 points @1.92
Sale over 4.5 tries @1.83

Taken Sarries -13.5
&
Under 52.5 points in quins v saints

First scoring play in Chiefs - Warriors:

Chiefs try at 9/10. Chiefs not interested in taking 3s against a second string Warriors outfit. One way traffic at Sandy Park

Bet 1: Ospreys -1.5 @1.84
Bet 2: Ospreys Team Total Over 23.5 points @1.84

Bet 1: Benetton -5.0 @1.80
Bet 2: Team Total Benetton Over 23.5 Points @1.80
Bet 3: Total Points Over 41.5 @1.87

Guinness Pro 14 Results

Round 15 - 5/6 = 83%

Since restart - 11/12 = 92%

2019/2020 - 65/101 = 64%

At last a successful weekend. Followed Stig, Hanrick, Bradie, TOS, and SOAP - whenever they coincided with my superbru picks, and I ignored the 1-12/13+ markets in favour of H/C lines, H/T scores too.

My next foray will be into overs/unders markets..

Only blemish on my card was the Ozzie horror stories. They should consider monopoly those guys.

Thanks to everyone for their inputs, keep 'em rolling, please

Also have a big punt riding on Saries -12.5 later to put the icing ontop.

Gonna listen to the pros from now on, I'm so very sick of losing But that's behind me, right chaps ?