Rugby 21-27 Sep: Champions Cup semi's, Mitre 10 week 3, Super Fan Sat + other

Early bet for me is Toulouse +5.5 @ 1.84 on 888
Not impressed by Exeter today and the Toulouse pack + fast paced game played could be an issue for Exeter

Do you know if the ABs are out for the R3 Mitre? I thought they were only playing the 2 first rounds but can’t find anything official.

CLrugby wrote: Do you know if the ABs are out for the R3 Mitre? I thought they were only playing the 2 first rounds but can’t find anything official.

ABs done for now, sadly. Confirmation here:

i.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/provincial/300...teal-ranfurly-shield

Brad Breath wrote:

CLrugby wrote: Do you know if the ABs are out for the R3 Mitre? I thought they were only playing the 2 first rounds but can’t find anything official.

ABs done for now, sadly. Confirmation here:

i.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/provincial/300...teal-ranfurly-shield

Thank you, it will be interesting to see how bookies integrate it with the like of Auckland or Taranaki...

All over Otago +9.5 v Taranaki

Taranaki back down to earth with Barrett brothers gone (despite Boshier still in).

Josh Ioane should be available for Otago who are likely to hang tough in shield match...

Otago +9.5 an early stand out for me.

I like Bulls to beat the Sharks at 12/10 and the +2.5.

Sharks with some injury concerns.

FYI Bet365 lines

Wellington -9.5 vs BOP
Tasman -13.5 vs Waikato
Southland +12.5 vs NH
Hawkes Bay +9.5 vs Canterbury
Auckland -24.5 vs Manawatu
Taranaki -8.5 vs Otago
CM -7.5 vs Northland

One important point fans should be back in Stadium so I expect large crowd. Agree with the Otago +, like Southland + and CM money line so far.

Taking Tigers +10.5 vs Toulon at 9/10

Tigers have had a week off and will want to give it their all considering they are safe from relegation in the prem.

Mitre 10:

Waikato +13.5 v Tasman at 9/10

Weather report not great for Tasman (although an early forecast) and we think Waikato will keep it close.

We are also on:

Harlequins +8.5 vs Sale at 9/10 in the premiership rugby cup tonight.

Sale playing a weakened team, while quins are full strength

son_of_a_punt wrote: Taking Tigers +10.5 vs Toulon at 9/10

Tigers have had a week off and will want to give it their all considering they are safe from relegation in the prem.

Mitre 10:

Waikato +13.5 v Tasman at 9/10

Weather report not great for Tasman (although an early forecast) and we think Waikato will keep it close.

We are also on:

Harlequins +8.5 vs Sale at 9/10 in the premiership rugby cup tonight.

Sale playing a weakened team, while quins are full strength

Agree with Quins but I am more toward HT +3.5, Sale has a massive bench with 7 starters. Quins bench is also correct with Dombrandt / Landajo and Low but not as strong as the Sharks one

Excellent RugbyPass article here on the impact on each province of losing their ABs - and the likely players that will replace them moving forward:

www.rugbypass.com/news/changing-of-the-g...-mitre-10-cup-squad/

Going on Bath -7.5 tomorrow against Gloucester, they are 1 point behind Wasps and 1 point ahead of Bristol and Sale. With 2 games to go and finale match to play against Saracens away they have to go for the BP win here.
Massive Massive squad and bench

BATH

15. Anthony Watson, 14. Semesa Rokoduguni, 13. Jonathan Joseph, 12. Josh Matavesi, 11. Ruaridh McConnochie, 10. Rhys Priestland, 9. Ben Spencer; 1. Beno Obano, 2. Tom Dunn, 3. Will Stuart, 4. Elliott Stooke, 5. Charlie Ewels (C), 6. Tom Ellis, 7. Sam Underhill, 8. Taulupe Faletau

REPLACEMENTS

16. Jack Walker, 17. Lewis Boyce, 18. Christian Judge, 19. Josh McNally, 20. Miles Reid, 21. Will Chudley, 22. Cameron Redpath, 23. Joe Cokanasiga

GLOUCESTER

15. Matt Banahan, 14. Ollie Thorley, 13. Chris Harris, 12. Billy Twelvetrees, 11. Jonny May, 10. Lloyd Evans, 9. Willi Heinz; 1. Val Rapava-Ruskin, 2. Jack Singleton, 3. Fraser Balmain, 4. Matt Garvey, 5. Matias Alemanno, 6. Jake Polledri, 7. Lewis Ludlow ©, 8. Ruan Ackermann

REPLACEMENTS

16. Henry Walker, 17. Corne Fourie, 18. Jack Stanley, 19. Ed Slater, 20. Jordy Reid, 21. Joe Simpson, 22. Tom Seabrook, 23. Louis Rees-Zammit.

Weather forecast is good and Glou is struggling since Ackermann left. I expect a 10+ win here

I'm so chuffed to see that the Rugby Pass Index (RPI) rates Wyatt Crockett as the 15th best player in the Mitre 10 cup on 77 points.

They are so 'on it' that it's scary... Top of their game

Yeah and Sonny Bill Williams too...

Taking Wellington -5.5 vs BOP at 17/20

Wellies at home and still stacked despite losing 4 ABs. Crowds back too!

“Fill your boots” Thoughts on Sports

Echo that Wellies -5.5.

'Golden' - RuggaBugga

'Fill your boots' - ToS

'Beaut' - SOAP

'Wellies by 20+' - Hanrick Swart

'Grannies Pension' - Oracle

'RIP Hollies' - Conductor


Also taking under 6.5 tries at 7/10 in Premiership Cup final. Expect pens to be traded.

Wellies -5.5 is soooooooo Golden. Think even the Oracle could come out of retirement for this one by using Granny-In-Laws Pension!
ToS has summed it up brilliantly

This is a crazy line move, if anything it should have gone from -9.5 to -12.5.

Get on!

Under 65.5 points in Auckland - Manawatu at 0.88

Double: Under 71.5 in Auckland X Wellies outright at a shade over 1/1 (fill your boots )

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Under 65.5 points in Auckland - Manawatu at 0.88

Double: Under 71.5 in Auckland X Wellies outright at a shade over 1/1 (fill your boots )

Thanks TOS!! Like that under with 16.2 mm of rain expected on Sunday and went also with Auckland under 44.5 @ 1.91

bradie82 wrote:

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Under 65.5 points in Auckland - Manawatu at 0.88

Double: Under 71.5 in Auckland X Wellies outright at a shade over 1/1 (fill your boots )

Thanks TOS!! Like that under with 16.2 mm of rain expected on Sunday and went also with Auckland under 44.5 @ 1.91

Which bookie/s are these early points lines available at?

Betway, PlayaBets, BetXChange, Supabets

Following the train here with Bath + Wellington + Under 77.5 in Auckland @2 it is a decent price

@BettingStig blog updated with #Mitre10Cup lines #StigLines

t.co/ie188Wz5M0

Rugby is an interesting sport, Bath loosing 3-20 at 60’ and scoring 4 converted tries to win it 31-20 with BP and beating the cap. Sweet

Taking Wellington over 32.5 points at 8/10. Line mostly 33.5. Can't see them not covering this points spread at home in the form they are in. Wellies only losing Perenara, Savea and Asafo. Crux of the backs remains in tact. Conditions windy in Wellington but no rain about.

Wellington starting XV. The backline is still impressive but the front row is very young and unexperienced, Kaliopasi Uluilakepa is 145kg still! They ll get punished at scrum against BOP.

1 Kaliopasi Uluilakepa
2 Tyrone Thompson
3 Josiah Tavita-Metcalfe
4 James Blackwell
5 Naitoa Ah Kuoi
6 Vaea Fifita
7 Du’Plessis Kirifi [C]
8 Teariki Ben-Nicholas
9 Kemara Hauiti-Parapara
10 Jackson Garden-Bachop
11 Julian Savea
12 Vince Aso
13 Peter Umaga-Jensen
14 Wes Goosen
15 Billy Proctor

16 Bruce Kauika-Petersen [DEBUT]
17 Xavier Numia
18 Ben Aumua-Peseta
19 Caleb Delany
20 Mateaki Kafatolu
21 Connor Collins
22 Trent Renata
23 Pepesana Patafilo

CLrugby wrote: Rugby is an interesting sport, Bath loosing 3-20 at 60’ and scoring 4 converted tries to win it 31-20 with BP and beating the cap. Sweet

What is so much more fascinating to me CL, is that by the time my bookie (Sunbet) opened the betting on this game, yesterday, they opened at -12.5 and I'd had Bath by 20 in Superbru for a week already, so jumped onto the 12.5.
Result 11 and another pile of money down the shithole in what had for me been a gimme for 5 days already.

Ahh fukk'em

Do you think Wellington will still cover the spread, with this team and bench?

Kirky wrote:

CLrugby wrote: Rugby is an interesting sport, Bath loosing 3-20 at 60’ and scoring 4 converted tries to win it 31-20 with BP and beating the cap. Sweet

What is so much more fascinating to me CL, is that by the time my bookie (Sunbet) opened the betting on this game, yesterday, they opened at -12.5 and I'd had Bath by 20 in Superbru for a week already, so jumped onto the 12.5.
Result 11 and another pile of money down the shithole in what had for me been a gimme for 5 days already.

Ahh fukk'em

I took it on Bet365 at the opening and also released it on my betting group, went down quickly at -9.5 less than 30min after the release.
Premiership rugby always release the lineups at the same time 1pm CET so it’s easy to set up alerts and jump on betting lines. Having said that it was a Lucky one, Bath needs to trash Priestland at 10 he is too slow for their backline and sign Lucas from Australia.

Kitchen_theBuys wrote: Do you think Wellington will still cover the spread, with this team and bench?

BOP lineup is not out yet so hard to tell. I am going for the ML @1.40 in a parlay at the moment but some are strongly backing up the Lions to get the job done easily. I am a BOP fan so not sure I have a clear mind here.

Hello to the whole forum. I'm going to go in the opposite direction of some, I have a very good feeling on Taranaki this weekend against Otago. It's going to rain a lot in New Plymouth this weekend, especially Sunday, and Otago isn't going to like it at all. Otago are a fast-paced team, with full backs like Vili Koroi or Jo Nareki in the past I've seen them struggling a few times when the conditions were wet and rainy. Taranaki is the opposite. Big forward pack, the best third row in the championship with brothers Boschier and Crosswell, it cuts everyone out in defense (watch their last game against Canterbury, they tackled more than 70 times for 3 missed tackles). They score a lot with the driving mauls, so I think it's going to be a tough game for Otago, they lost some important players in the backrow like James Lentjes, or Josh Dickson at lock. So I'm waiting for the lines up, of course they lost the Barett Brothers but in a match in the rain I think their impact will be limited, they were not won at Canterbury with all their All Blacks to lose the Shield a week later against Otago anyway. Probably Taranaki ML, under points Otago and Ricky Riccitelli ATS.

For the other games, nothing inspires me, I will wait to see the weather in Invercargill, because Southland started the championship very well with a victory and a defensive bonus against Bay of Plenty (where they could have won at the end of the game but the referee did not want to) while North Harbor did not start the championship well. I'm just waiting to see the weather, because Southland unlike Otago likes it when the game is slowed down, if it's wet I take, otherwise I leave.

Waikato +13.5 v Tasman at 8/10

Taking some Wellington -5.5 @1.75, BOP lineup released and there is no Ross, Eklund, Karpik, Cane (we knew it), Black, Nawara ... and some weird positioning and reshuffling of their backline. Still concerned about Wellington baby front row but the rest of the team should outplay BOP who somehow seems to focus the Auckland game next week at home.

A suggestion for some high value potential bets that I've been successful with previously:

With so many of the game predictions this week likely to fall into the 1-12 bracket, I've taken a bunch of trifectas, i.e. Wellington onto Tasman onto N Harbour all at 1-12. These odds add up quickly to above 25.0 and beer money gets you a good win. Even if only one comes home from 5, you've a decent net gain.
Good luck all and lets hope it's a bookie-bashing weekend

Taken Bulls to win vs sharks at 2.05

Jake White has built a good squad, while Sharks are missing a lot of players! Altitude could also be a factor here.

Lions +5.5 @ 10/11 with Sunbet.

This is the pick for me of the 2 SA games. On paper Stormers side always going to catch the eye but 1st game up at altitude, going to get tough at some point. Jantjies to dictate things for lions, new recruits form a solid backline. Stormers backline bags of pace but I think will leak tries.

The biggest plus cap on 1st game back for all these guys in many months feels the right way to go.

Not sure if you can play it but in ProD2 I am going big on Rouen Normandie @1.72 ML

They have made a massive recruitment during the inter season and their lineup is big tomorrow.

Can someone explain why Bulls playing at home are @2 ? I had a look at their squad and it’s massive with lot of experience in the bag. I would have made them favorite.

After seeing lineups, I've taken a double on
Southland +12 into Hawke's Bay +10 @ 3.64

Smalls on Wellies -6 this morning.

Wellington's frontrow is very weak, useless young boys.
Forwards vs Backline game

Delon wrote: Wellington's frontrow is very weak, useless young boys.
Forwards vs Backline game

That is a bit harsh, they were not that bad and relatively well controlled the driving maul. BOP is a strong pack for youngsters like that it is not a bad shift at all

Thank you everyone it looks that the Wellington train safely arrived at destination. I guess Kirifi was driving (what a player he becomes)

Look at the unders tonight in French Pro D2 on your bookmakers if they offer them: it will rain on all matches except Vannes / Valence Romans where there will be a lot of wind. The match most affected by the rain: Oyonnax vs Provence Rugby. I'm waiting for the cut tries on Vannes Valence Romans, Valence Romans made 15 changes compared to the last games, a very weak team, it seems they are aiming for home games. Vannes can take the offensive bonus.

I said last night on the Youtube chat that Racing on the board was the right move but the absence of Le Roux is a huge blow for Racing.
Therefore, my suggestion is to stay away form the game and look for something in play or simply enjoy the game

Over 37.5 in Chiefs - Toulouse.

Line 10 points too low for me.

No rain at Sandy Park.

Smaller play on over 43.5 at 17/10

Bordeaux +8.5 @1.84

This handicap looks a bit high I think. Bristol may win, but Bordeaux are good too.

I also took the +4.5 HT for Bordeaux, as suggested during the show.

Racing vs Saracens

Over 18.5 ht @ 1.85
Over 40.5 @ 1.86

Exeter vs Toulouse
Over 37.5 @ 1.89

First of all thanks to TOS for spotting those odds Those are 2 semi finals and could be closed game but was not impressed by Racing and Chiefs defences and those 4 teams have such attacking quality that I can’t skip such low cuts