Super Rugby AU & AO, 6 Nations, Preparation Series, GPR, Pro14, Top14 9-14 Mar

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3 years 1 month ago #1 by Brent Graham
Going to get this thread up early due to the midweek rugby - Preparation Series - we can still use todays thread for any of todays action

"May the Force be with you" was the title of last weeks betting newsletter and while it wasn't easy the Force -2.5 arrived to ensure profits. We missed the 12/1 acca with the Leicester -2.5 missing by 2 points and I understand they conceded 2 tries against 14 men to see us beat - pleased that wasn't the last leg.

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On a personal note it was a good weekend thanks to the Force and Crusaders o31.5 arriving. I was up and down in most of the other matches but some decent ammo for a busy week ahead.

And busy it is with midweek action in SA getting us going - here are the early Preparation Series caps from WSB

Cheetahs 7/10 v Sharks 12/10 -no cap yet, opened choice
Pumas +12.5 v Bulls
EP +38.5 v Lions (opened +36.5)
Griquas +10.5 v Stormers

Super Rugby AU round 4 and AO round 3 on the weekend - here are my projected caps

Force +6.5 v Rebels
Brumbies -7.5 v Reds

Crusaders -15.5 v Chiefs
Blues -6.5 v Highlanders

Here are the week 4 Six Nations caps

Italy +25.5 v Wales
England -1.5 v France
Scotland +1.5 v Ireland

Look forward to your thoughts as we take on the bookies.

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3 years 1 month ago #2 by ThoughtsOnSports
I'll chip in with my predicted Premiership handicaps:

Bristol -7.5 vs Wasps
Chiefs -13.5 vs Harlequins
Newcastle +5.5 vs Bath
Saints +5.5 vs Sale
Gloucester -4.5 vs Tigers
London Irish -5.5 vs Warriors

twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports
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3 years 1 month ago #3 by Brent Graham
A quick betting update

Cheetahs -3.5 v Sharks 12/10 -opened choice then went 7/10
Pumas +13.5 v Bulls - opened +12.5
EP +42.5 v Lions - opened +36.5
Griquas +9.5 v Stormers - opened +10.5

Super Rugby AU round 4 and AO round 3 caps are out and on the right in brackets - original caps were my projections

Force +6.5 v Rebels (=4.5)
Brumbies -7.5 v Reds (-5.5)

Crusaders -15.5 v Chiefs (-15.5)
Blues -6.5 v Highlanders (-7.5)

All within a couple of points of mine so no early moves for me

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3 years 1 month ago - 3 years 1 month ago #4 by ThoughtsOnSports
Taken Stormers -5.5 in Preparation game. (cashed out to take Griquas +9.5)
EP +42.5

Force +4.5
Reds +5.5

Against the grain here but strong fancy on Chiefs to cover the +15.5.

Brumbies - Reds over 46.5

twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports
Last edit: 3 years 1 month ago by ThoughtsOnSports.

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3 years 1 month ago #5 by son_of_a_punt
Sale to beat Northampton Saints at 1.87

Hoping Faf can lead the Sharks to another W!

Twitter: son_of_a_punt | Time to win some beer money

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3 years 1 month ago #6 by Ruan Fourie

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Force +4.5
Against the grain here but strong fancy on Chiefs to cover the +15.5.


Well that's not a good sign. I went with the opposite.

First went with Rebels-3.5 and then when the line moved to -1.5, I took some of that too.
Also went with Crusaders-15.5

I've had a poor year so far but last weekend went better for a change.

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3 years 1 month ago #7 by Kendolph
I have seen literally nothing to suggest that England are about to turn up for a game. Another 80 mins in the legs of the Saracens players but it's still not enough to be test match sharp and most of them are playing poorly anyway.
Can't refresh the squad with the Sam Simmonds' of this world even if Eddie wanted to (which he doesn't).

Even allowing for not knowing the affect that coivd will have had on individuals, Vakatawa and Ntamack are added to the squad, this is going to be a beatdown and odds against about France on the board is just superb. 4/5 strength due to the covid question mark at 21/20.

Elsewhere 'keep calm and back the Crusaders' usually with good reason, expected the Chiefs to be better than last year but last week suggests more of the same so taking the minus.

Scotland +2 the other confident play at this stage pre any team news as the week goes on.

France on the board
Crusaders -15
Scotland +2

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3 years 1 month ago #8 by Chiefie
After landing a £630 4 fold on some NCAA basketball and NBA all stars last night, I’m ready to go again.

France will murder England. No crowd. Autumn harvest cup revenge. Full France squad. It’s going to be a war crime against those pommy bastardos.

Crusaders will win comfortably.

Wales to win by 25+

Scotland v Ireland - no idea. Either team to win by 7 points?

Super AU - don’t give a shit

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3 years 1 month ago #9 by Brent Graham
Plenty of confusion around kick off times with bookies showing Griquas v Stormers tomorrow but by all accounts it is 1st up today

Griquas v Stormers Betting Preview

A small interest in the 2nd half highest scoring and I will be waiting for points lines

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3 years 1 month ago #10 by Brent Graham
Pumas v Bulls Betting Preview

Really small stakes on todays games but nibbling at the Pumas + 12.5

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3 years 1 month ago - 3 years 1 month ago #11 by ThoughtsOnSports
Pumas +13.5 at 9/10

EP +42.5 at 9/10 (strongest fancy)

twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports
Last edit: 3 years 1 month ago by ThoughtsOnSports.

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3 years 1 month ago #12 by Shazzadude
Wow, I took Griquas +7.5 an hour ago, now they’re +2.5 (at Bet365)

Kiwi living in Australia

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3 years 1 month ago #13 by ThoughtsOnSports
Ignore the above:

Back on the Stormers train at 7/10.

Crazy price.

twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports

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3 years 1 month ago #14 by son_of_a_punt
Stormers -2.5 vs griquas at 9/10

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3 years 1 month ago #15 by Brent Graham
Stormers o31.5 at 17/20 WSB for me

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3 years 1 month ago #16 by Experienced Novice
Shocking call on that last Stormers try just before HT. Must have travelled 2 meters forward.

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3 years 1 month ago #17 by The Vann
Puma's v Bulls
Match points over 63.5 @ evens

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3 years 1 month ago #18 by Ruan Fourie
I'm shocked how bad the South African teams defend. It's ridiculously poor.

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3 years 1 month ago #19 by mackem
Cheetahs v Sharks

goodforthegame.co.za/South-Africa-Rugby/...review-and-tips.html

EP v Lions

goodforthegame.co.za/South-Africa-Rugby/...review-and-tips.html

Brent not particularly keen on getting involved pre-match but would go with smalls on best EP plus and Cheetahs minus

twitter: @goodforthegame

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3 years 1 month ago #20 by ThoughtsOnSports
Brumbies ripe for the picking.

Strong on Reds +5.5

Added Reds board 1-12 at 2.2/1

twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports
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3 years 1 month ago #21 by Zambusta

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: Brumbies ripe for the picking.

Strong on Reds +5.5

Added Reds board 1-12 at 2.2/1


I think it will be a tight one...hopefully with no red card.

I've taken either team by 7 including draw @2.3

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3 years 1 month ago #22 by Joeywallace
Still big on EP are you? Would you take plus 39.5

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3 years 1 month ago #23 by Quill
EP vs Lions

Expecting a bounce back by EP. The Lions with fringe players and youngsters.

Bet 1: EP over 16.5 pts @1.83, bet365
Bet 2: EP +35.5 @1.80, bet365


Cheetahs vs Sharks

Cheetahs with close to their best selection. Sharks still with fringe players.

Bet: Cheetahs -4.5 @1.97, sportsbet

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3 years 1 month ago #24 by landrews77
Good shout on EP on the Plus gentlemen.:beer

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3 years 1 month ago #25 by landrews77
Cheetahs let us down big time. Wait for another day.

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3 years 1 month ago #26 by mackem
Couch Critic's preview and plays for Super Rugby AU Rd 4

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...w-and-best-bets.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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3 years 1 month ago #27 by mackem
Couch's Aotearoa Rd 3 preview and plays, more tryscorers to be added for Blues game after line ups announced

goodforthegame.co.za/BetOlimp-Blog/couch...-plus-best-bets.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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3 years 1 month ago #28 by Darren
Like the look of Zebre +25. Teams just announced. Leinster are already in the final and quite a few academy players in the pack. Zebre were unlucky to lose by 11 points to Glasgow last weekend.
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3 years 1 month ago #29 by Brent Graham
Couch Critic joins me tonight for THE HANDICAP live at 21h00 and we will focus on Super Rugby and 6 Nations

Click Here to watch on You Tube


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3 years 1 month ago #30 by Brent Graham
Force v Rebels Betting Preview

A tough one but stuck with my original thoughts that the cap should be closer to 6 points

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3 years 1 month ago - 3 years 1 month ago #31 by Chiefie
England v France this weekend, how are England anywhere near being favourites?

An empty twickenham, a stacked French team with Vakatawa and Ntamack back, am I missing something here?

France on the board at 21/20 for me.

And, either team to win by 1-6 at 13/8.
Last edit: 3 years 1 month ago by Chiefie.

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3 years 1 month ago #32 by Brent Graham
Thanks Couch for a great chat on tonights show - here is the Podcast Version

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3 years 1 month ago #33 by Brent Graham
Crusaders v Chiefs betting preview

Going with Couch's Chiefs u17.5 call


Brumbies v Reds Betting Preview

Reds overs for me

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3 years 1 month ago #34 by Brent Graham
Six Nations Saturday Previews

Italy v Wales Betting Preview

I fancy Italy to beat the cap but main bet is Italy o6.5 1st half points



England v France Betting Preview

Chiefie I hear you - happy to take odds-against the French

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3 years 1 month ago #35 by Brent Graham
Sundays rugby action

Scotland v Ireland Betting Preview

Like the Scots on the board



Blues v Highlanders Betting Preview

Handicap looks well set - early kickoff and that is enough to get me onto overs

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3 years 1 month ago #36 by southpaw
That overs in Auckland looks a beaut. Day kick off, massive crowd. All over it.

Blue v High - over 48.5 pts @ 17/20 Sunbet

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3 years 1 month ago #37 by southpaw
Force over 9.5 1st half points @ 15/20

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3 years 1 month ago #38 by Quill
Force vs Rebels

Over 44.0 pts @1.88, Pinnacle

I don't always take points on the Force games, but when I do I take overs.
Somehow every time I take an under it goes spectacularly into overs and then some, and I remember when it started.
It was about 8 years ago on a rainy, bucketing down day, drenched like a drowned rat, no umbrella or rain jacket able to shelter me, being at the stadium in Perth watching Force vs Blues. I took a spectacular unders bet and was happy to take in the floods from the sky and bear a shitfest in the mud if that was going to give me a winner.
Lo and behold, both teams score at ease, and I'm not talking penalties, they scored tries. Many. Enough to beat an over on a nice summer day.

I've tried unders many times since then, but more often than not (it is just what has been happening to me, not general stats) they go into overs.

I guess I must have received the baptism of the Over Gods that day. :beer

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3 years 1 month ago #39 by Brad Breath
Taken Rebels - more pens than tries @ evens with B365

Shouldn't this be much shorter given Rebels not scored any tries in their first 2 games??

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3 years 1 month ago #40 by Laraxwell
6N weekend but Decent Munster team named v Scarlets
Joey Carbery makes first start in a year
Some feel good in the province
Munster -8.5pts v Scarlets

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3 years 1 month ago #41 by Ruan Fourie

Brad Breath wrote: Taken Rebels - more pens than tries @ evens with B365

Shouldn't this be much shorter given Rebels not scored any tries in their first 2 games??


That looks like a great bet!

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3 years 1 month ago #42 by southpaw
time and time again i get sucked in by general positive sentiment for Force. They are clueless on attack. Zero plan.

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3 years 1 month ago #43 by Chiefie

southpaw wrote: time and time again i get sucked in by general positive sentiment for Force. They are clueless on attack. Zero plan.


10-7 after 80mins. Australian rugby should be defunded. And this is why it’s being streamed for free in the UK - they literally can’t give the shit away.
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3 years 1 month ago - 3 years 1 month ago #44 by Kirky
Last edit: 3 years 1 month ago by Kirky. Reason: Delete

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3 years 1 month ago #45 by Experienced Novice
Like a moth to a flame I find myself inexplicably backing the English again this week. According to weather forecasts there will be some rain and wind about, and I do somehow feel that a slower paced, forward orientated game will suite them better than the French.

I will probably be lamenting this decision tomorrow night, but my money is down on England by 1 -10 @ 2/1.

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3 years 1 month ago #46 by Chiefie

Experienced Novice wrote: Like a moth to a flame I find myself inexplicably backing the English again this week. According to weather forecasts there will be some rain and wind about, and I do somehow feel that a slower paced, forward orientated game will suite them better than the French.

I will probably be lamenting this decision tomorrow night, but my money is down on England by 1 -10 @ 2/1.


Look, Andrew Brace is reffing - so literally anything is possible. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him award a penalty, take the kick himself for posts, then overrule himself with a TMO Check Check. Honestly. How the man is not on furlough is beyond me.

The only bet I’m confident is on unders points on the game, sitting around 41.5. French hate the English, defence drilled by Shaun Edwards and they will want retribution from COVID cup.

France on the board at 11/10
France +1.5 @ 5/6
Red card @ 6-1
Unders 41.5 @ 5/6

Tonight Bristol V Wasps.
Gone big on unders 40.5 points @10/11.

Karl Dickson Reffing so should be a whistle fest. Wasps not scoring points and Bristol have a work experience kid at fly half, weather is also biblical according to metoffice.

Good luck everyone. Viva le Crunch
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3 years 1 month ago #47 by Chiefie

Chiefie wrote:

Experienced Novice wrote: Like a moth to a flame I find myself inexplicably backing the English again this week. According to weather forecasts there will be some rain and wind about, and I do somehow feel that a slower paced, forward orientated game will suite them better than the French.

I will probably be lamenting this decision tomorrow night, but my money is down on England by 1 -10 @ 2/1.


Look, Andrew Brace is reffing - so literally anything is possible. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him award a penalty, take the kick himself for posts, then overrule himself with a TMO Check Check. Honestly. How the man is not on furlough is beyond me.

The only bet I’m confident is on unders points on the game, sitting around 41.5. French hate the English, defence drilled by Shaun Edwards and they will want retribution from COVID cup.

France on the board at 11/10
France +1.5 @ 5/6
Red card @ 6-1
Unders 41.5 @ 5/6

Tonight Bristol V Wasps.
Gone big on unders 40.5 points @10/11.

Karl Dickson Reffing so should be a whistle fest. Wasps not scoring points and Bristol have a work experience kid at fly half, weather is also biblical according to metoffice.

Good luck everyone. Viva le Crunch


16-13 at HT. my under 40.5 is looking pretty shitty right about now.

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3 years 1 month ago #48 by southpaw
Looking to get back into the black after the Farce let me down this morning.

Chiefs over 7.5 1st half points @ evens

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3 years 1 month ago #49 by Chiefie

Chiefie wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

Experienced Novice wrote: Like a moth to a flame I find myself inexplicably backing the English again this week. According to weather forecasts there will be some rain and wind about, and I do somehow feel that a slower paced, forward orientated game will suite them better than the French.

I will probably be lamenting this decision tomorrow night, but my money is down on England by 1 -10 @ 2/1.


Look, Andrew Brace is reffing - so literally anything is possible. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him award a penalty, take the kick himself for posts, then overrule himself with a TMO Check Check. Honestly. How the man is not on furlough is beyond me.

The only bet I’m confident is on unders points on the game, sitting around 41.5. French hate the English, defence drilled by Shaun Edwards and they will want retribution from COVID cup.

France on the board at 11/10
France +1.5 @ 5/6
Red card @ 6-1
Unders 41.5 @ 5/6

Tonight Bristol V Wasps.
Gone big on unders 40.5 points @10/11.

Karl Dickson Reffing so should be a whistle fest. Wasps not scoring points and Bristol have a work experience kid at fly half, weather is also biblical according to metoffice.

Good luck everyone. Viva le Crunch


16-13 at HT. my under 40.5 is looking pretty shitty right about now.


37-20. Not even close.

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3 years 1 month ago - 3 years 1 month ago #50 by coil
Stiffer than a row of huge ginormous honeymoon koks ..... I fly into unders at the break in the wasps game under 50.5 ....
Testing conditions , rain pelting down, a pathetic school boy kick by goparth at the death allows Bristol to score the killer blow ,
Fook me sideways... i'm lost for words.
Gonna be a weekend of chasing .
Last edit: 3 years 1 month ago by coil.

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