NRL 2021

Having a dabble on Origin 1:

Blues -2 @ 1.80

Latrell each way @ 17

Big class difference between the Broncos and the Bunnies, and with the Bunnies welcoming back some big guns, they should win by as much as they want to.

South Sydney Rabbitohs -18.5 @1.87

Agreed Quill

Bunnies -16 @ 1.73

Bunnies over 35.5 @ evens

Brad Breath wrote: Agreed Quill

Bunnies -16 @ 1.73

Bunnies over 35.5 @ evens

I took the Bunnies over too

Cowboys v Sharks

I like the Sharks and the overs, so 2 slightly conservative bets

Sharks +4 @ 1.80

Total points over 50.5 @ 1.80

Cowboys have been decent at home so far but I also like the Sharks here. The difference in class between the opponents that each team has faced in the last few games is chalk and cheese.

I've taken over 51.5 @1.81.

Newcastle Knights vs NZ Warriors

Pearce is back for the Knights.
Both teams desperately need to win.
Wet weather in Newcastle.

Bet 1: Newcastle @1.93
Bet 2: Under 48.5 points @1.90

St George Illawarra Dragons vs Canberra Raiders

The Dragons had a hot start to the season, but that is now long forgotten. They have won just two of their last nine and they were against the worst two teams in the competition.
Zac Lomax is out injured for the Dragons, and that is a big blow for them.

The Raiders thumped the Broncos 38-16 in a display that had coach Ricky Stuart declaring Canberra were getting their mojo back.

Bet: Canberra -4.5 @1.91

Melbourne Storm vs Wests Tigers

Bet: Melbourne -25.5 @1.82

Took NSW -6 @ 1.91 not long after Origin 1, expected some line movement but not by 10 points

Back to the well with Latrell - 1st @ 13 and anytime @ 2.2

And following Couch on Luai MOM @ 17

Manly Sea Eagles vs Canberra Raiders

Bet 1: Manly -14.5 @1.90
Bet 2: Team Total Points - Manly Over 30.5 @1.87
Bet 3: Team Total Tries - Manly Over 5.5 @1.85

Took Sea Eagles -8 @ 1.73 a few days ago

For interest following Couch with Garrick 2 or more tries @ 5

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs North Queensland Cowboys

As Couch said, although the Rabbitohs will be far more disrupted due to the State of Origin match, with more players missing, it could also be said that Souths missing five players is far less of a blow than the North Queenslanders losing their only two real star attractions.
The Cowboys don't have the depth to replace their players.

As both fullbacks are missing, I expect a shootout tonight.
The last three meetings between the two have gone over the total.

Bet 1: South Sydney -15.5 @1.78
Bet 2: Over 46.0 points @1.93
Bet 3: South Sydney Over 31.5 points @1.84

Jeez how woeful were Manly yesterday

Was eyeing up overs too Quill although I see there is rain about, so not pulled the trigger yet.....

Brad Breath wrote: Jeez how woeful were Manly yesterday

Was eyeing up overs too Quill although I see there is rain about, so not pulled the trigger yet.....

I stopped watching in the second half when I saw how woeful Manly were.

Yes, there may be rain about, but the pitch is good and as it usually happens to me, if it's rain about I take overs, as more often than not the overs hit when I got involved in an over/unders bet in wet weather.
Also the bookies seem to favour the overs, as they haven't dropped the total.

The weatherman says that between 8pm-11pm the chances of rain are reduced.

Quill wrote:

Brad Breath wrote: Jeez how woeful were Manly yesterday

Was eyeing up overs too Quill although I see there is rain about, so not pulled the trigger yet.....

I stopped watching in the second half when I saw how woeful Manly were.

Yes, there may be rain about, but the pitch is good and as it usually happens to me, if it's rain about I take overs, as more often than not the overs hit when I got involved in an over/unders bet in wet weather.
Also the bookies seem to favour the overs, as they haven't dropped the total.

The weatherman says that between 8pm-11pm the chances of rain are reduced.

One bet and one bet only.

Campbell Graham ATS at evens. Good enough for me.

The guy is about 6"4 - so scores a lot. Go go gadget arms.

The match was moved to Newcastle and I didn't know.

Shot Quill, another full house!

Got caught up with work and missed 1st 15 mins

Backed Bunnies -2 and also over 26.5 points when they were 12 - 2 down

Putting most of those profits on Chooks minus tomorrow, think it'll be a rort

Anyone have a view for todays State of Origin game?

NSW have demolished the Maroons the previous two games but struggling with a view on this one.

Josh Addo-Carr + NSW win @1.95

Valentine Holmes anytime @2.40, bet365

Trbojevic anytime @1.83, bet365

Blues are a different gravy but this time without Cleary and Lui as creators. Reckon Blues should win but I favour a closer affair.

Unfortunately no good price in SA on Tommy T so will have to give that a skip. Instead just a nibble on Mitch Moses MoM. Would also have gone for Ponga to score the first try and Blues to win if that was available.

Blues under 2.5 first half tries the main play I've settled on.

Also fancying a closer affair

Blues 1-12 @ 3.10

Smaller bets on:

Both teams score 20+ and NSW to win @ 5

Latrell MOM @ 10

Parramatta Eels vs Canberra Raiders

Bet 1: Team Total - Eels Over 30.5 points @1.85
Bet 2: Total Points Over 46.5 @1.81

I'll try again a 3-bet, as it looks like the previous one did not come home because it was a 2-bet.

Nth Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm

Bet 1: Melbourne Storm -32.0 @1.82
Bet 2: Team Total Points - Melbourne Over 42.5 @1.95
Bet 3: Team Total Tries - Melbourne Over 7.5 @1.80

Took Storm -28.5 @ evens a couple of days ago

Added Storm over 41.5 @ 1.91 just now

Also Olam hattrick @ 23 as Quill made me superstitious

Sydney Roosters vs Parramatta Eels

Bet: Under 45.5 points @1.90

Quill wrote: Sydney Roosters vs Parramatta Eels

Bet: Under 45.5 points @1.90

Heavily invested in over 9.5 tries in Tigers and Warriors. Currently 10-0 at HT.

Cant get a break. Let alone a bloody finger of a kit kat.

Chiefie wrote:

Quill wrote: Sydney Roosters vs Parramatta Eels

Bet: Under 45.5 points @1.90

Heavily invested in over 9.5 tries in Tigers and Warriors. Currently 10-0 at HT.

Cant get a break. Let alone a bloody finger of a kit kat.

I took Tigers Over 32.5 @1.87

Cronulla Sharks vs Manly Sea Eagles

The Sea Eagles are in great form, having won 8 in their past 10 games. They are also scoring a plenty.
The Sharks can contribute to the scoring as well, but they miss Shaun Johnson, a big blow to them, while Manly has Trbojevic in their line up, which means they should win this with room to spare.

Bet 1: Manly -18.5 @1.86
Bet 2: Total Points Over 54.5 @1.92
Bet 3: Team Total Points - Manly Over 36.5 @1.93

Struggling for a bet in the Knights game. Both teams have shown some decent form of late but one can't put the farm (or granny's pension) on either of these teams to deliver with confidence.

Had Staggs been available I probably would have had a sneaky Broncos punt. As it stands I will have a nibble of the Broncos alternative plus into a few weekend plays (take 18+). But don't go overboard as the Bradman-Ponga combo is a lethal one for the Knights!

Any comments welcome to pull me into a more specific direction... I'm known to be easily swayed!

On the log 7 to 11 all sitting on 18 points...it's a dog fight to make the top 8.
Knights know this game needs to be a big momentum builder for them.
Knights get back Best, Pearce and Ponga all in a starting lineup for the first time in a while.
Staggs is a big out for the defence of the Broncos backline.
I see Ponga running riot through that centre channel.
Knights 13+ @1.8
Knights over 31,5 points @1.82
Pongs to score 2 or more @5
Ponga and Best both to score @3.25

Zambusta wrote: On the log 7 to 11 all sitting on 18 points...it's a dog fight to make the top 8.
Knights know this game needs to be a big momentum builder for them.
Knights get back Best, Pearce and Ponga all in a starting lineup for the first time in a while.
Staggs is a big out for the defence of the Broncos backline.
I see Ponga running riot through that centre channel.
Knights 13+ @1.8
Knights over 31,5 points @1.82
Pongs to score 2 or more @5
Ponga and Best both to score @3.25

Yes, with Ponga and Pearce playing together for only the second time I think this year.
I've taken all the above and added
Knights over 5.5 tries @1.87

Nice lads. Reckon I will also jump ship - huge Ponga fan so will trust the little magician to bamboozle the Broncos D.

Love the try scorer plays Zam!

Quill wrote:

Zambusta wrote: On the log 7 to 11 all sitting on 18 points...it's a dog fight to make the top 8.
Knights know this game needs to be a big momentum builder for them.
Knights get back Best, Pearce and Ponga all in a starting lineup for the first time in a while.
Staggs is a big out for the defence of the Broncos backline.
I see Ponga running riot through that centre channel.
Knights 13+ @1.8
Knights over 31,5 points @1.82
Pongs to score 2 or more @5
Ponga and Best both to score @3.25

Yes, with Ponga and Pearce playing together for only the second time I think this year.
I've taken all the above and added
Knights over 5.5 tries @1.87

28 tackles inside the broncos 10m - 0 points in 17mins.
The knights are going to get pumped by 20+ here.
Wouldn't be surprised if Knights get nilled here.

Newcastle yesterday

Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders

Melbourne all the way

Bet 1: Melbourne -25.5 @1.91
Bet 2: Team Total Points - Melbourne Over 36.5 @1.92
Bet 3: Team Total Tries - Melbourne Over 6.5 @1.80