Wales v New Zealand, Scotland v Tonga, NPC, Gallagher Prem, Top 14 29-31 Oct

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1 month 2 days ago - 4 weeks 2 days ago #1 by Brent Graham
Overall a losing weekend for me including the Newsletter Best Bet Aussie over 34.5 which fell just short after some poor goalkicking by the visitors

Not alot to shout about elsewhere and I stayed out of the USA v All Blacks - just as well as I was looking at under 12.5 AB tries - that was little more than a training run for the ABs and well done to Ballaholic for identifying the early minus in last weeks forum thread

Managed to claw some back on Saracens over 42.5 in the final game and we live to fight another day

The highlight of the coming weekend is Wales v New Zealand and we also have Scotland v Tonga as well as URC (no SA teams), Bunnings NPC, Gallagher Prem and Top 14

I haven't seen betting for Wales v New Zealand yet but reckon the line will be around Wales +19.5

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Have a good week and as always your contributions much appreciated in the battle against the books

Edit - did not realize there is no URC this weekend so heading changed

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Last edit: 4 weeks 2 days ago by Brent Graham.

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1 month 2 days ago #2 by Wager Warlock
Bay Of Plenty vs Waikato
BoP -2.5 (1.9 on WSB) early doors look like great value! Doubt it will be available too long.

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1 month 1 day ago #3 by Kirky

Wager Warlock wrote: Bay Of Plenty vs Waikato
BoP -2.5 (1.9 on WSB) early doors look like great value! Doubt it will be available too long.

I also fancy Southland -1.5 vs Northland - 2.00 Sunbet.
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1 month 1 day ago #4 by Wager Warlock
Yes, had a look at that too, and even Tasman on the minus (-4.5 @1.9), but want to see lineups on that one first.

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1 month 1 day ago #5 by Kirky
Does anyone have any kind of list of Gallagher Premiership players who will miss this weekend's action due to international call-ups ?
Or know where to get such a list ?

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1 month 1 day ago #6 by southpaw
All Blacks -22.5 @ 8/10

Wales missing key players as test outside international window. The Welsh side the press are likely to start does not look great. All blacks will bring back a number of first choice who did not travel to USA.

I would have capped this around 15 points for full strength Wales. The 22 is a converted try short of true cap in my opinion.
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1 month 1 day ago #7 by Gareth75
Have managed to get on All Blacks-21.5 @ 1.87. Main aim is to get on the line now as I believe it’s going to move up, might then lay off some of my liability on Wales + (biggest + hcap I can find) Closer to kick off., Wales focus more on scoring tries under Pivac & not as physically defensive as in Shaun Edwards era , injures & illegibility Not helping that defence as Wales are missing a few key physical players, North , Biggar, Tipuric , Navidi, Faletau, L. Williams . Just think Wales won’t be able to handle the intensity of the All blacks Relentless attacking game
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1 month 17 hours ago #8 by Gareth75
Not sure if this is any good :

England squad for 2021 Autumn Nations Series

Forwards:

Jamie Blamire (Newcastle Falcons, 2 caps)
Callum Chick (Newcastle Falcons, 2 caps)
Tom Curry (Sale Sharks, 33 caps)
Trevor Davison (Newcastle Falcons, 1 cap)
Nic Dolly (Leicester Tigers, uncapped)
Alex Dombrandt (Harlequins, 1 cap)
Charlie Ewels (Bath Rugby, 23 caps)
Ellis Genge (Leicester Tigers, 30 caps)
Jamie George (Saracens, 59 caps)
Jonny Hill (Exeter Chiefs, 9 caps)
Maro Itoje (Saracens, 48 caps)
Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints, 87 caps)
Lewis Ludlam (Northampton Saints, 10 caps)
Joe Marler (Harlequins, 72 caps)
George Martin (Leicester Tigers, 1 cap)
Sam Simmonds (Exeter Chiefs, 7 caps)
Kyle Sinckler (Bristol Bears, 44 caps)
Will Stuart (Bath Rugby, 12 caps)
Sam Underhill (Bath Rugby, 24 caps)
Backs:

Mark Atkinson (Gloucester Rugby, uncapped)
Owen Farrell (Saracens, 93 caps)
Tommy Freeman (Northampton Saints, uncapped)
George Furbank (Northampton Saints, 4 caps)
Max Malins (Saracens, 8 caps)
Joe Marchant (Harlequins, uncapped)
Jonny May (Gloucester Rugby, 66 caps)
Raffi Quirke (Sale Sharks, uncapped)
Adam Radwan (Newcastle Falcons, 1 cap)
Harry Randall (Bristol Bears, 2 caps)
Henry Slade (Exeter Chiefs, 40 caps)
Marcus Smith (Harlequins, 2 caps)
Freddie Steward (Leicester Tigers, 2 caps)
Manu Tuilagi (Sale Sharks, 43 caps)
Ben Youngs (Leicester Tigers, 109 caps)
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1 month 9 hours ago #9 by Brent Graham

southpaw wrote: All Blacks -22.5 @ 8/10

Wales missing key players as test outside international window. The Welsh side the press are likely to start does not look great. All blacks will bring back a number of first choice who did not travel to USA.

I would have capped this around 15 points for full strength Wales. The 22 is a converted try short of true cap in my opinion.


Good early spot South I see the cap is out to -24.5

Looking forward to this game

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4 weeks 2 days ago #10 by Shazzadude
Hawke’s Bay have rung the changes since they don’t need to win to keep top seed in the premiership-a whole new starting front row, back row and midfield

Kiwi living in Australia
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4 weeks 2 days ago - 4 weeks 2 days ago #11 by Kirky

Shazzadude wrote: Hawke’s Bay have rung the changes since they don’t need to win to keep top seed in the premiership-a whole new starting front row, back row and midfield

Drat, bugger..

I'll just have to hope they can still beat Rene Ranger's Turbos by 14 or more :P
Last edit: 4 weeks 2 days ago by Kirky. Reason: more thought

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4 weeks 1 day ago #12 by southpaw

Brent Graham wrote:

southpaw wrote: All Blacks -22.5 @ 8/10

Wales missing key players as test outside international window. The Welsh side the press are likely to start does not look great. All blacks will bring back a number of first choice who did not travel to USA.

I would have capped this around 15 points for full strength Wales. The 22 is a converted try short of true cap in my opinion.


Good early spot South I see the cap is out to -24.5

Looking forward to this game


Generally now edged out further to 27.5 and 28.5 in places. The roof is open for all Wales games and rain expected Saturday. This does worry me a little bit but generally NZ have great wet handling skills and roof open removes a bit of a crowd factor for Welsh.

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4 weeks 1 day ago #13 by Quill
Canterbury vs Tasman

I see that most people side with Tasman here, but I'll go against the grain.

Canterbury are now just outside the play-offs and need to get back to winning ways. They lost their last 3 matches and for a team stacked with so much Super Rugby experience this is not good enough.
Tasman are just above them, ahead by 1 point.
One year ago when Canterbury were in dire straits to win in order to avoid relegation, they beat Tasman 29-0.
I'll side with Canterbury to have an outburst here and recover their season.

Bet 1: Canterbury +5.5 @1.91
Bet 2: Team Total Points - Canterbury Over 20.5 @1.85

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4 weeks 1 day ago #14 by Quill

Quill wrote: Canterbury vs Tasman

I see that most people side with Tasman here, but I'll go against the grain.

Canterbury are now just outside the play-offs and need to get back to winning ways. They lost their last 3 matches and for a team stacked with so much Super Rugby experience this is not good enough.
Tasman are just above them, ahead by 1 point.
One year ago when Canterbury were in dire straits to win in order to avoid relegation, they beat Tasman 29-0.
I'll side with Canterbury to have an outburst here and recover their season.

Bet 1: Canterbury +5.5 @1.91
Bet 2: Team Total Points - Canterbury Over 20.5 @1.85


Adding over 46.5 points @1.89.

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4 weeks 1 day ago #15 by Quill

Quill wrote:

Quill wrote: Canterbury vs Tasman

I see that most people side with Tasman here, but I'll go against the grain.

Canterbury are now just outside the play-offs and need to get back to winning ways. They lost their last 3 matches and for a team stacked with so much Super Rugby experience this is not good enough.
Tasman are just above them, ahead by 1 point.
One year ago when Canterbury were in dire straits to win in order to avoid relegation, they beat Tasman 29-0.
I'll side with Canterbury to have an outburst here and recover their season.

Bet 1: Canterbury +5.5 @1.91
Bet 2: Team Total Points - Canterbury Over 20.5 @1.85


Adding over 46.5 points @1.89.


Brent style bet at HT to save the day:
Over 37.5 points @1.90

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4 weeks 22 hours ago #16 by Brent Graham
Well played there Quill - you almost hit your original points bet as well

Wales v New Zealand Betting Preview

As South suggested the line has moved - All Blacks over 5.5 tries for me

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4 weeks 22 hours ago #17 by Quill
Gloucester vs Exeter over 46.5 points @1.88

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4 weeks 20 hours ago #18 by southpaw

Quill wrote: Gloucester vs Exeter over 46.5 points @1.88


Same thoughts but couldn’t find any 46.5, so taken -

Over 47.5 @ 10/11

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4 weeks 18 hours ago #19 by Jameson
I cant remember when I last won an 'overs' ...... :-(

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4 weeks 17 hours ago #20 by GoGoNoNo
hi, an interesting match in top 14, racing -5, they receive Toulouse which will be deprived of 11 players retained in the France team.
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4 weeks 16 hours ago #21 by coil
Had to sweat gigantic bullets in that Exeter match as I was on minus 2.5, despite Skinner missing a host of kicks it arrived.

Too slow on the take but I have managed plus 9.5 Manawatu for the morning game, On the Tigers tomorrow plus 2.5 , love it. On the Warriors at 13.5 at 5/6. Bath v Wasps under 46.5 points. I missed 9/10 Irish and won't take the minus 2. Will wait and see on that one.
Sarries on Sunday minus 3.5 at 7/10.

Tonga plus 37.5 .

Awaiting weather for NZ match.

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4 weeks 9 hours ago #22 by Kirky

GoGoNoNo wrote: hi, an interesting match in top 14, racing -5, they receive Toulouse which will be deprived of 11 players retained in the France team.


Thanks for telling us this GoGo, but do you perhaps know how many players Racing have lost to the French team ?
Reckon if Toulouse have lost some, than Racing might also have lost a few ?

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4 weeks 6 hours ago #23 by GoGoNoNo
Hi Kirky,

list of 42 selected players : Avants : Julien Marchand (Toulouse), Peato Mauvaka (Toulouse), Gaëtan Barlot (Castres), Cyril Baille (Toulouse), Demba Bamba (Lyon) Jean-Baptiste Gros (Toulon), Uini Atonio (La Rochelle), Wilfrid Hounkpatin (Castres), Paul Willemse (Monptellier), Bernard Le Roux (Racing 92), Romain Taofifenua (Lyon), François Cros (Toulouse), Grégory Alldritt (La Rochelle), Anthony Jelonch (Toulouse), Dylan Cretin (Lyon), Cameron Woki (Bordeaux-Bègles), Thibaud Flament (Toulouse), Kilian Geraci (Lyon), Ibrahim Diallo (Racing 92), Sekou Macalou (Stade Français), Thierry Païva (Clermont), Floran Vanverberghe (Castres), Florian Verhaeghe (Montpellier).

Arrières : Antoine Dupont (Toulouse), Baptise Couilloud (Lyon), Maxime Lucu (Bordeaux-Bègles), Romain Ntamack (Toulouse), Matthieu Jalibert (Bordeaux-Bègles), Antoine Hastoy (Pau), Virimi Vakatawa (Racing 92), Gaël Fickou (Racing 92), Jonathan Danty (La Rochelle), Damian Penaud (Clermont), Gabin Villière (Toulon), Matthis Lebel (Toulouse), Brice Dulin (La Rochelle), Melvyn Jaminet (Perpignan), Donovan Taofifenua (Racing 92), Romain Buros (Bordeaux-Bègles), Yoram Moefana (Bordeaux-Bègles), Thomas Ramos (Toulouse), Tani Vili (Clermont).

Galtié in to released 14 : BUROS Romain (Union Bordeaux Bègles, 0 sélection)
DIALLO Ibrahim (Racing 92, 1 sélection)
DULIN Brice (Stade Rochelais, 36 sélections)
GERACI Killian (LOU Rugby, 3 sélections)
HASTOY Antoine (Section Paloise, 1 sélection)
HOUNKPATIN Wilfrid (Castres Olympique, 1 sélection)
LE ROUX Bernard (Racing 92, 47 sélections)
LUC Aymeric (RC Toulon, 0 sélection)
PAIVA Thierry (Union Bordeaux Bègles, 0 sélection)
RATTEZ Vincent (Montpellier Herault Rugby, 8 sélections)
TAOFIFENUA Donovan (Racing 92, 0 sélection)
VANVERBERGHE Florent (Castres Olympique, 0 sélection)
VERHAEGHE Florian (Montpellier Herault Rugby, 0 sélection)
VILI Tani (ASM Clermont Auvergne, 0 sélection)
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4 weeks 4 hours ago #24 by Chiefie
Alright ladies.

Worcester v Sharks
Rohan JV Rensburg AT tryscorer @11/8.

Piling in to that.

And 2 tries at 9-1 on WH.

Cheers mense
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4 weeks 54 minutes ago #25 by hanrick
Tonga over 10.5 points onto Wales over 12.5 points at 23/10

Also the single of Wales over 12.5 points at 8/10

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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3 weeks 6 days ago #26 by ThoughtsOnSports
England women to beat NZ women (draw not bet) at 15/20

Sarries -3.5 at 15/20

twitter: @ThoughtsOnSports

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3 weeks 6 days ago #27 by GoGoNoNo
Finally despite the 11 absences the Toulouse team and not so bad.

Racing : Spring ; Thomas, Chavancy, Beale, D. Taofifenua ; (o) Gibert, (m) Le Garrec ; Le Roux, Tanga, Diallo ; Palu, Jones ; Oz, Chat, Gogichashvili.
Remplaçants : Le Guen, Kolingar, Moreaux, Hemery, Machenaud, Russell, Laborde, Gomes Sa.

Toulouse : Médard ; Tauzin, Holmes, Ahki, Bonneval ; (o) Nanai-Williams, (m) Bales ; Tolofua, Miquel, Placines ; Ro. Arnold, Ri. Arnold ; Faumuina, Cramont, Neti.
Remplaçants : Boubila, Ainu'u, Tekori, Youyoutte, Germain, Guitoune, Delibes, Tafili.

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3 weeks 6 days ago #28 by southpaw
Somehow after only a few bets found myself under pressure going into Wales all blacks match. Thankfully biggest investment of weekend on minus cap came home after a nervy first 50.

Looking to follow some of the other lads punts today and waiting for points lines.

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3 weeks 6 days ago #29 by coil

ThoughtsOnSports wrote: England women to beat NZ women (draw not bet) at 15/20

Sarries -3.5 at 15/20


Thanks TOS !! Now you have me interested and I'll be watching the rather large boned lady figures this afternoon :woohoo: :woohoo:
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3 weeks 6 days ago #30 by southpaw
Over 40.5 @ 5/6 in the nz eng match
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3 weeks 5 days ago #31 by coil
Wow , there are some tough looking birds in these two teams, common England yee twats !!

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3 weeks 5 days ago #32 by Brent Graham
Over 47.5 added in Saracems game

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3 weeks 5 days ago #33 by Jameson
Two wins at the death there Brent - Saracens and NZ tries! :-)

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3 weeks 5 days ago #34 by Brent Graham

Jameson wrote: Two wins at the death there Brent - Saracens and NZ tries! :-)


Phew yes one of those weekends where the bog breaks went my way

Newsletter acca also lands at the death with that Sarries try

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3 weeks 5 days ago #35 by Quill
Racing 92 vs Stade Toulousain

Bet 1: Racing -5.5 @1.88
Bet 2: Racing over 26.5 pts @1.81

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3 weeks 5 days ago #36 by Kirky

Quill wrote: Racing 92 vs Stade Toulousain

Bet 1: Racing -5.5 @1.88
Bet 2: Racing over 26.5 pts @1.81


Great calls Quill :cheer:
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