Tennis - 14-21 Nov - ATP Finals

The Doubles start first in this competition played in Turin, and we have Mektic N./Pavic M. vs Krawietz K./Tecau H. playing first .

These two teams met twice this year, in the Rotterdam final and Toronto semifinal.
Each time Mektic/Pavic won 2-0, but out of the four sets played, we had three tie-breakers.

Bet: Over 20.5 games @1.80

Medvedev vs Hurkacz

These two players met two times this year and every time we had maximum number of sets (Hurkacz won at Wimbledon 3-2 and Medvedev won in Toronto 2-1).
Both matches were entertaining and I expect the same here.

Bet: Over 22.5 games @2.02

Thanks Quill. Thought this kicked off on Monday.

Zverev v Berrettini
Berrettini was better during the first half of the season and I think Zverev wins one of the sets easy even if they run to three sets.

Zverev - 3.5 games @ 11/10

Djokovic vs Ruud

The courts in Turin are so fast, in fact, that they not only favor more offensive players but they also promise to work directly against players who rely on foot speed and defensive tennis.

Ruud is the worst player on fast surfaces of the eight finalists here.
He built up his points mainly on clay, as he won 4 of his 5 titles on this surface.

Although he reached the quarter-finals in Vienna and Paris, he was eliminated each time in 2 sets by Sinner and Zverev, respectively.
Earlier in Indian Wells he was beaten in two sets by Schwartzman, in Cincinnati in two sets by Zverev and in Toronto in two sets by Tsitsipas.
As we can see, when he faced top players on hard courts he lost in straight sets.
Novak Djokovic is bidding for his sixth title at the year-end championship. Casper Ruud is making his tournament debut.
That is just one of the reasons to expect a mismatch here.

Djokovic has won this title five times, but he hasn’t lifted the trophy since 2015 and therefore has to be extremely motivated. The court is also playing faster than it did in London, which is additional bad news for Ruud.

Bet: Under 20.5 games @1.97

As close as it gets without a win Quill

Tsitsipas v Rublev
Two players who are staggering towards the end of the season. With the court being slightly faster then normal I don't think there is a favorite here as that would assist Rublev. Throwing a few beers at

Win Rublev 2-1 sets @ 15/4

Tsitsipas vs Rublev

None of these players are in any kind of form right now and their H2H is 5-4. It doesn't matter to whom, as after 9 matches to be 5-4 is as good as even, especially when they alternate the wins, like in their case, and moreover, they both beat each other on both hard and clay.

On this fast court, the sets should be quite even.
Also, if Djokovic vs Ruud produced 19 aces, I expect at least the same here.

Bet 1: Over 2.5 sets @2.25
Bet 2: Over 23.5 games @1.94 (just in case they win in 2 long sets)
Bet 3: Over 16.5 Aces @1.83

Mektic/Pavic vs Granollers/Zeballos

Mektic and Pavic have had a great season and their confidence is high.
Their game is at high levels and in the first round they didn't give Krawietz/Tecau any chance to get back in the game.
They've had 60 wins this season so far.

Medvedev vs Zverev

Medvedev was very good in his first match here, defeating Hurkacz in 3 sets, however without facing a single break point.
The overall head-to-head series is all tied up at 5-5, but that doesn't tell the real story. Medvedev once trailed 4-0 and has since won five of their last six encounters–and four in a row dating back to last season’s Paris Masters final. They just faced each other in the Paris semis this time around, with Medvedev dominating 6-2, 6-2.

A lightning-fast hard court only helps the No. 2 seed’s chances, as Zverev is more inconsistent from the baseline especially off the forehand side. Based on the surface, recent matchup history, and current form, all signs point to a Medvedev win.

Bet: Mektic/Pavic + Medvedev @2.35

Medvedev vs Zverev

Medvedev won 2-1 in the first round, but never faced a break point.
Zverev was leading 1-0 after the first set and 1-0 in the second set, when Berrettini retired injured.
Both players are big servers and recorded a big number of aces.
I expect this match to be decided by a few big points on these super-fast courts.

Bet 1: Over 2.5 sets @2.37
Bet 2: Over 23.5 games @2.04
Bet 3: Medvedev win & Over 22.5 games @2.75

If you find a market for the number of aces, take the overs, as even Ruud blasted 9 past Djokovic.

Excellent picks on the Medvedev v Zverev match Quill. We do not get the aces market at any book I know of in SA. I would have shorted games. Busy this week and will be away probably Friday to Monday so will sadly miss most of the action.

Sinner v Hurkacz
Berrettini has pulled and Sinner is in this evening. These players have only met once on hard court in April in Miami and Hurkacz won 2-0 with a tie break. Not sure why Sinner is the favorite here on a speedy court so I am going full on

Win Hurkacz @ 21/20

Djokovic vs Rublev

Djokovic struggled in the first set against Ruud and he was even broken by the Norwegian.
Rublev beat Tsitsipas in two sets without facing single break point.
OK, Tsitsipas recently retired injured in Paris due to pain in his right arm, but he was still able to fire 12 aces.
I think that Rublev will be able to pose enough problems to Djokovic.
The court is very fast and there are tons of aces in every match (there were 19 aces in Djokovic vs Ruud match and 21 in Rublev vs Tsitsipas match).

Bet 1: Over 20.5 games @1.82
Bet 2: Over 17.5 aces @1.91 (sportsbet.com.au)

Ram/Salisbury – Herbert/Mahut

These two teams met once at the Australian Open and they played a long three set match.
They are two of the best teams in the world right now, ranked 2nd and 3rd and they both won their first match here in straight sets.

Bet 1: Over 21.5 games @1.75
Bet 2: Over 2.5 sets @2.37

Zverev vs Hurkacz

Zverev said: "Look, I think if I beat Hurkacz, I’m in a very good position because I won in two sets, I lost in three. I’m ready to play on Thursday. I’m ready to play Hubi on Thursday, and I think that will be the deciding match for me. I’m excited, I’m looking forward to it, I think it’s all in my hands, kind of."
Zverev is among the best three performers (alongside Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev) so far in the second half of the season, and he would be quite confident of extending his stay in Turin this week. He has competed in six tournaments in the second half and reached at least the semifinal in five of them, with the best results being the title-winning campaigns at the Tokyo Olympics (gold medal), Cincinnati Masters and Vienna.
Hurkacz was completely out of sorts against Sinner in a 6-2, 6-2 blowout.

Zverev just needs to win this to qualify, whereas Hurkacz's only chance to qualify is to win this match and Medvedev beats Sinner.
Zverev needs to spend as little time as possible on court today, so that he can be fresh against Djokovic, who is already waiting for him.
Zverev is in much better form and physical shape.
Sinner thumped Hurkacz in two quick sets, so Zverev should do the same.

Bet 1: Zverev -3.5 @1.82
Bet 2: Zverev 2-0 @1.80

Mektic/Pavic – Dodig/Polasek

This is a big match for both pairs, as who wins it qualifies to the semifinals.
Both of them have lost one match, both of them to Granollers/Zeballos, and both of them won once, against Krawietz/Tecau.
There have been very few breaks of serve, and with so much at stake, this should be a tight match.

Bet 1: Over 21.5 games @1.97
Bet 2: Over 2.5 sets @2.50

Ram/Salisbury vs Cabal/Farah

Ram/Salisbury are already through to the semifinals.
Cabal/Farah must win to advance.
Three weeks ago these two doubles met in the Vienna indoor final. Ram/Salisbury were favourites to win there as well, however Cabal/Farah beat them in two sets.
Given that they must win, and they can do it, as we saw, I'll take Cabal/Farah.

Bet: Cabal/Farah @2.36

Rublev vs Ruud

Rublev and Ruud battle for second place in Group A.
All four of their previous encounters have gone the Russian’s way and he is 8-1 in total sets.
Although Rublev is not in peak form like he was throughout 2021 and earlier this season, I like his chances here. He owns this matchup with Ruud and the quick conditions give him an additional advantage. Rublev’s forehand is even bigger than Ruud’s and his serve is superior, as well.

Bet 1: Rublev Total Aces - Over 10.5 @1.83
Bet 2: Rublev -2.0 @1.89
Bet 3: Total Match Aces - Over 19.5 @1.91

Medvedev vs Ruud

Ruud has been enjoying it so far here, and it may be another fun experience for him, but it’s unlikely to end well. Medvedev has a day off in addition to a massive surface advantage. Ruud will be making a quick turnaround on the heels of his 2-6, 7-5, 7-6(5) thriller against Rublev and his right arm appeared to be giving him some trouble late in that contest.

Anything other than a routine win for Medvedev would be a shocker.
Medvedev is in another class here.

The court is very fast and there are many aces in all matches.

Bet 1: Medvedev - 4.5 @1.90
Bet 2: Under 21.5 games @1.78
Bet 3: Over 14.5 Aces @1.72

Herbert/Mahut vs Ram/Salisbury

This is the doubles final.
These two teams met a few days ago in the group stage and Ram/Salisbury won in 3 sets.
Previous to this, they met one other time in 2019, when Herbert/Mahut won in 3 sets.
I expect another tight and long match between these two doubles.

Bet 1: Over 20.5 games @1.72 (bet365)
Bet 2: Total 3 sets @2.37 (bet365)

ATP Final

Medvedev vs Zverev

Zverev has just beaten Djokovic for the second time this year.
Medvedev is the defending champion here. He is on a nine-match winning streak at one of the most prestigious tournaments in the world, and he already won the U.S. Open final against Djokovic.

Zverev is playing well enough to keep it close, like on Tuesday in their group match, when Medvedev won in 3 long sets, with only one break of serve and 32 aces (14-18).

Bet 1: Most Aces - Zverev @2.20
Bet 2: Total Aces - Over 20.5 @1.83
Bet 3: Over 23.5 games @2.00
Bet 4: Over 2.5 Sets @2.37