Cycling : Giro d'Italia
- The Vann
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A few observations
- We have two ITT's. Stage 2 at 9km and the final stage of 17km. They have tried to lessen the effect of the final stage by sticking a 4.5km climb at 5% in the middle but someone like Bardet is still going to lose 45sec to an Almeida and half a minute to Carapaz/Yates etc. Not a fan.
- I expect most sprinters to leave after stage 13. There is only stage 18 left for them but the real mountains lie between stage 13 and the end.
- Looks like a brilliant parcours for break aways with 10 stages between 147km and 178km.
- We have an edge on the books early doors with stage 4 heading up Etna - one of Brents many punting success stories'
The books these days are just so much better at pricing up cycling that I have had a hard time spotting any outright value at decent odds. I have around ten mostly at shortish odds which I am going to whittle down to four or five and will place and post later in the day.
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- The Vann
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Boys night tonight so placed bets early and sober.
Tough for me to choose between Lopez and Bardet but went with the Alps performances.The Astana team does carry more firepower then the odds on offer for eg De La Cruz has two top 10's in the Vuelta and Dombrowski would be their break away specialist. Dumoulin is apparently in the last chance saloon at Jumbo so I believe they will keep Foss in play as long as possible. Same goes with Poels at Bahrain where Landa is inclined to lose grand tours in one stage.
Stakes along the lines of 5 units on the Bardet place at 7/2 with 1 unit on each of the other picks
e/w
Bardet @ 14/1
Points
Girmay @ 7/1
Young Rider
Foss @ 6/1
Top 10 Finish
Poels @ 13/2
Team Comp
Astana @ 11/1
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Young Rider = Arensman @12/1
Pts Jersey = Ulissi @400/1 (*most sprinters leave and a ton of punchy finishes should suit him and he finished 4th in this before)
Stage 1 = flyer on Consonni @200/1
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- The Vann
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195km of nothing but finishes with a 4km climb at 5%. Reported to be some steeper ramps in last km.
e/w
Ulissi @ 18/1 (80% of stake on the 1-3 at 9/2)
Match bet double
Ulissi/Narvaez into Bardet/Almeida @ 24/10
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- Couch Critic
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Carapaz looks a cut above against this opposition. As always I will hold on to aome hope for Landa but he's burnt me wayyy too often!
Stage1 I also can't see past MVD who wins in different scenarios. But I just can't take such small odds. Hopefully the betting heats up for me on the folowing stages!
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- The Vann
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Giro Stage 2
9.2 km ITT today with first 8km flat and 1.2km finish at around 5%. No idea what form Dumoulin is carrying so will skip him. I like Affini but the climb is probably 500m too long so going with a climber as my main bet with a few beers on the other two.
Win
Almeida @ 4/1
Affini @ 14/1
1-3
Thomas dG @ 33/1 (Would fancy this if in last week but maybe a little early in the tour)
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- Brent Graham
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- The Vann
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200km With no climbs or wind so a bunch sprint. Believe the finish is straight and wide enough although Cav and Caleb are both capable of dumb crashes. No betting value today so the odd beer for the watch
e/w
Nizzolo @ 10/1
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- The Vann
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KOM
e/w
Sepulveda @ 300/1
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- The Vann
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Some good ups and downs in the first 50km should enable a few climbers to make the break. Finish on Etna which is around 23km at 5.5%. Expect the main GC teams will be glad if the pink jersey goes to a smaller outfit today so the break has every chance of staying. Best punting tactic probably an arrow or three up front and keep a bet or two spare for an in-play shot at the break
Win
Taaramae @ 22/1
Peters @ 40/1
de Marchi @ 50/1
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- mackem
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- The Vann
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Giro Stage 5
173km Today with a Cat 2 peaking with 100km to go. Also a steep little 400m kicker in the last 3km. Cav may struggle to get there but enough sprint teams will be interested so very little hope for a break.
A few beers for interest
e/w
Girmay @ 11/2
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- Couch Critic
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- The Vann
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Giro Stage 6
Think Couch may have had a timing problem too. This looks like a Cav stage. 192km With early cat 4 but rest flat. Final sprint looks dead straight so all about lead out and Morkov is the best in the business.
Win
Cavendish @ 2/1
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- Couch Critic
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Vann!
Of course I was pissed off with the missile performing like a peeshooter and have jumped ship onto the fighting Aussie to hit the target for me today. FundS on Caleb Ewen for me but already getting that sinking feeling that Cav is going to give me the one finger salute today...AGAIN!
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- Couch Critic
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- Brent Graham
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- The Vann
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Brent Graham wrote: For all the talk of Morkov lead out Cav has hit the front too early in both sprints - the 1st one he just did an incredible sprint to hang on
Quick-Step sprint train taken out by Cimolai today absolutely on purpose. Leaves only Morkov with too far to go.
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- Brent Graham
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- kcmarinopirlo
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But I'm hoping Lilian Calmejane gets in the break @125/1
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- Couch Critic
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Carapaz 28/1
Simon Carr 33/1
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- The Vann
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Formolo @ 20/1
Vendrame @ 35/1
de Marchi @ 65/1
Cepeda @ 150/1
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- The Vann
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105km to go
Mollema @ 5/2
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- The Vann
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Couch Critic wrote: Son of a fatherless COW!!!! Ffssss
Snap!!!
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- Brent Graham
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- Couch Critic
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Jeez Vann with Mollema and Formolo I thought you were sitting sweet. Bike betting is humbling! But loads of fun I must say
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- Brent Graham
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1 unit Covi 16/1
1/2 unit Valta at 100/1
Taken 10/1 Landa outright for 5 units - for some reason woke up and was picturing him winning
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- The Vann
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Mountain top tomorrow so expect GC to take it easy. Problem for the break today is the stage is short at 153km and it is also rated b - which means full ciclamino jersey points and most sprint teams will be interested. A few darts for me and maybe an in-play near the end
Win
Ulissi @ 33/1
Eenkhoorn @ 50/1
Zabel @ 1000/1
e/w
Gall @ 150/1
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Valter @80/1
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- Brent Graham
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I really am just throwing darts here
0.5u on
Valta 80/1
Porte 33/1
Pozzivivo 150/1
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- Brent Graham
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But my main bet - 5 units that Lopez doesn't stay in pink at 6/10 - if this stage is ridden as I hope it will be I can see him losing minutes
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- southpaw
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Pedrero 28/1
Da la Cruz 33/1
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- The Vann
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Giro Stage 9
What complicates the call today is the +- 90km of lumpy bumpy between the very difficult start and the two big climbs finish. Will GC teams chase? I'm going with a few darts - a reasonable shot at the double and probably something in-play.
Win
Formolo @ 17/1
Taaramae @ 75/1
Joining all on Valter
e/w
Pozzovivo @ 175/1
Double
Carthy/Sosa - Buchmann/Hindley @ 27/10
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- The Vann
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165km to go
Peters @ 25/1
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- Brent Graham
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Very sad for Yates
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- The Vann
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Punting side easy to summarise. Bet money - Lose money.
After 190km yesterday with 150metres to go my 175/1 (Brents 150/1 ) slotted into the slip stream of the first rider to jump and then faded away. Story of the week.
Slim pickings on the outrights
Think that Hindley podium at 7/2 is reasonable. He finished 2nd in 2020 beating Almeida and looks like the podium is between the five who finished 1-5 yesterday. I won't be taking as I am happy with my Bardet e/w
Have to have smalls on something so here is my logic.
Bike exchange just announced that Yates will continue tomorrow and will look for a stage win when his knee improves. Except for the Sobrero possibility on the final stage Bike exchange have nothing else to offer except letting Hamilton go to see what he can do. Makes these odds look reasonable
KOM
Hamilton @ 115/1
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Onto Stage 10
DeMarchi looks lively @150/1
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- Couch Critic
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Perfect break stage but I have a feeling the interests of MvdP and Girmay (as well as hopes of Gaviria and Ewan) could mean potential breaks are chased down for the most part.
Van der Poel saw the other day that there are problems with being the outright fancy for a stage and one wonders how he will play things as again this is 100% his type of parcours. Imo he would be best served to stay in the pack and have a massive crack up the 3km at almost 7% climb leaving the sprinters in his dust from that point on.
Anyway I can't have him at such a short price and will rather throw a longer shot dart or two hoping for either a long range breakaway allowed or a late break when the hills start.
Eenkhoorn 50/1
Lorenzo Rota 50/1
Ben Swift 200/1
Alex Dowsett 400/1
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- The Vann
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Stage is rated c which means half sprint points on the line but I believe FDJ will not let Girmay go up the road and Girmay usually follows vd Poel. Should leave enough fire power to chase down a break. Two up front for me and will keep a few pence on hand should the break look good.
Win
Nizzola @ 33/1
e/w
Gavira @ 33/1
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- mackem
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Chapeau to DeMarchi give it a proper go but Intermache and Bini just too good.
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- The Vann
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My day consisted of the Covi (UAE) attack on the final climb which caused my bet and the last outright sprinter in the pack Gavira (UAE) to be dropped. At least my ciclamino outright - Girmay at 8/1 - wins the stage and closes to 3 points behind Demare. Odds now 8/10 on Girmay who then promptly takes a champagne cork to the eye and won't start. You can't make this shit up.
Giro Stage 11
Looks like 200km of straight flat boredom today. Should be a bunch sprint. I don't like the look of the road furniture in the last 5km so just hoping everone gets through safely. A few beers for the watch. No idea why Caleb faded so early yesterday but if he is OK he usually manages quite well in this kind of finish.
Win
Ewan @ 15/4
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- The Vann
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Giro Stage 12
204km Today with a few low Cat climbs. Last around 4km at 8.5% with 30km to go. Nothing really steep at the start so the light climbers may struggle to get into the break. Have to have the birthday boy de Marchi in today
Win
Covi @ 14/1
Rota @ 25/1
Mollema @ 25/1
e/w
de Marchi @ 66/1
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- mackem
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- The Vann
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Giro Stage 13
150km With a Cat 3 topping out around 100km from the end. Can always take an in-play 50km out as I will probably go Gavira. He should not shorten much from the current 4/1.
Win
Schmid @ 22/1
Cort @ 33/1 (Joining Chris here)
e/w
Tagliani @ 500/1 (Teams been active and one will make the break)
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- The Vann
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80km to go
Gavira @ 3/1
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