Cycling : Giro d'Italia

More
1 year 11 months ago #1 by The Vann
Cycling : Giro d'Italia was created by The Vann
The first Grand Tour starts tomorrow with three stages in Hungary.
A few observations

- We have two ITT's. Stage 2 at 9km and the final stage of 17km. They have tried to lessen the effect of the final stage by sticking a 4.5km climb at 5% in the middle but someone like Bardet is still going to lose 45sec to an Almeida and half a minute to Carapaz/Yates etc. Not a fan.

- I expect most sprinters to leave after stage 13. There is only stage 18 left for them but the real mountains lie between stage 13 and the end.

- Looks like a brilliant parcours for break aways with 10 stages between 147km and 178km.

- We have an edge on the books early doors with stage 4 heading up Etna - one of Brents many punting success stories'

The books these days are just so much better at pricing up cycling that I have had a hard time spotting any outright value at decent odds. I have around ten mostly at shortish odds which I am going to whittle down to four or five and will place and post later in the day.



-
The following user(s) said Thank You: mackem, Brent Graham, kt6747

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #2 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Giro Outrights
Boys night tonight so placed bets early and sober.
Tough for me to choose between Lopez and Bardet but went with the Alps performances.The Astana team does carry more firepower then the odds on offer for eg De La Cruz has two top 10's in the Vuelta and Dombrowski would be their break away specialist. Dumoulin is apparently in the last chance saloon at Jumbo so I believe they will keep Foss in play as long as possible. Same goes with Poels at Bahrain where Landa is inclined to lose grand tours in one stage.

Stakes along the lines of 5 units on the Bardet place at 7/2 with 1 unit on each of the other picks

e/w
Bardet @ 14/1
Points
Girmay @ 7/1
Young Rider
Foss @ 6/1
Top 10 Finish
Poels @ 13/2
Team Comp
Astana @ 11/1
The following user(s) said Thank You: kt6747

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #3 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Pello Bilbao my main fancy have him Top 10 @Evens + Podium @12/1

Young Rider = Arensman @12/1

Pts Jersey = Ulissi @400/1 (*most sprinters leave and a ton of punchy finishes should suit him and he finished 4th in this before)

Stage 1 = flyer on Consonni @200/1

Twitter @kamalch53215288
The following user(s) said Thank You: The Vann

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #4 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Giro Stage 1
195km of nothing but finishes with a 4km climb at 5%. Reported to be some steeper ramps in last km.

e/w
Ulissi @ 18/1 (80% of stake on the 1-3 at 9/2)
Match bet double
Ulissi/Narvaez into Bardet/Almeida @ 24/10

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #5 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Super excited for a Grand Tour as always but from a betting perspective I'm struggling for early value.

Carapaz looks a cut above against this opposition. As always I will hold on to aome hope for Landa but he's burnt me wayyy too often!

Stage1 I also can't see past MVD who wins in different scenarios. But I just can't take such small odds. Hopefully the betting heats up for me on the folowing stages!

Twitter: @HDiemont
The following user(s) said Thank You: The Vann

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #6 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
A little disappointed by the Bardet effort on the climb yesterday. Had high hopes for that match bet.

Giro Stage 2
9.2 km ITT today with first 8km flat and 1.2km finish at around 5%. No idea what form Dumoulin is carrying so will skip him. I like Affini but the climb is probably 500m too long so going with a climber as my main bet with a few beers on the other two.

Win
Almeida @ 4/1
Affini @ 14/1
1-3
Thomas dG @ 33/1 (Would fancy this if in last week but maybe a little early in the tour)

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #7 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Almeida at 3/1

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #8 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Giro Stage 3
200km With no climbs or wind so a bunch sprint. Believe the finish is straight and wide enough although Cav and Caleb are both capable of dumb crashes. No betting value today so the odd beer for the watch

e/w
Nizzolo @ 10/1

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #9 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Tried desperately to stay away from outrights on the extra rest day but have failed and beered the following

KOM
e/w
Sepulveda @ 300/1

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #10 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Giro Stage 4
Some good ups and downs in the first 50km should enable a few climbers to make the break. Finish on Etna which is around 23km at 5.5%. Expect the main GC teams will be glad if the pink jersey goes to a smaller outfit today so the break has every chance of staying. Best punting tactic probably an arrow or three up front and keep a bet or two spare for an in-play shot at the break

Win
Taaramae @ 22/1
Peters @ 40/1
de Marchi @ 50/1

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #11 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Stage 4 Etna. Dart aimed at Simon Carr from the break at 40/1

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago - 1 year 11 months ago #12 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Checked prices yesterday when the break formed as Kamna looked the pick but the best I could find was 5/2 so skipped. Thought Taaramae had a good shot but he did too much work in the break. Sadly also lost my Astana team bet with half the team down and Superman unable to continue.

Giro Stage 5
173km Today with a Cat 2 peaking with 100km to go. Also a steep little 400m kicker in the last 3km. Cav may struggle to get there but enough sprint teams will be interested so very little hope for a break.
A few beers for interest

e/w
Girmay @ 11/2
Last edit: 1 year 11 months ago by The Vann.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #13 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Late to the party here. I'm on Cav today. Reckon he wrote yesterday off from the start. Today the team will get him over the hill and he should be in with a great shout.

Twitter: @HDiemont

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #14 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
The punting gods have spoken but I am too dumb to pay any attention. Had Nizzolo to podium in first sprint and Girmay in second. Result exactly the opposite. Lost Tratnik in stage 3 which meant my Poels top 10 is now a helper. In fact the first 3 w/d in a field of 176 took out two of my six outrights.

Giro Stage 6
Think Couch may have had a timing problem too. This looks like a Cav stage. 192km With early cat 4 but rest flat. Final sprint looks dead straight so all about lead out and Morkov is the best in the business.
Win
Cavendish @ 2/1

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #15 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Story of my cycling punting life that
Vann!

Of course I was pissed off with the missile performing like a peeshooter and have jumped ship onto the fighting Aussie to hit the target for me today. FundS on Caleb Ewen for me but already getting that sinking feeling that Cav is going to give me the one finger salute today...AGAIN!

Twitter: @HDiemont

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #16 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Son of a fatherless COW!!!! Ffssss

Twitter: @HDiemont

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #17 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
For all the talk of Morkov lead out Cav has hit the front too early in both sprints - the 1st one he just did an incredible sprint to hang on

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #18 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia

Brent Graham wrote: For all the talk of Morkov lead out Cav has hit the front too early in both sprints - the 1st one he just did an incredible sprint to hang on


Quick-Step sprint train taken out by Cimolai today absolutely on purpose. Leaves only Morkov with too far to go.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #19 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Ah ok that makes sense

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #20 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Stage 7, MvdP hd a day off yesterday by the look of it, will have a saver on him but my main bet is Atilla Valta, team are flying on back of Demare wins, good 4th in Strade this year, 14th on GC in last years Giro, 20/1 shot today

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #21 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Following you Chris and will take half a unit on Valta with half on Tulett at 50/1 and main play 1 unit an ld flame in Cort Nielsen at 14/1

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #22 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Magnus Cort did mention targetting this stage in a recent interview;

But I'm hoping Lilian Calmejane gets in the break @125/1

Twitter @kamalch53215288

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #23 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Still licking my wounds after yesterday bu getting back on the bike straight away.

Carapaz 28/1
Simon Carr 33/1

Twitter: @HDiemont

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #24 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Low blow yesterday Couch

Formolo @ 20/1
Vendrame @ 35/1
de Marchi @ 65/1
Cepeda @ 150/1

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #25 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
At this point rate the Dumoulin move about the dumbest this season - carry Mollema across to a team mate?

105km to go
Mollema @ 5/2

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #26 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia

Couch Critic wrote: Son of a fatherless COW!!!! Ffssss


Snap!!!

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #27 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Geez watched it delayed but what a stage - Bauwman must have gone a huge price when he was dropped on the final long climb

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #28 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Can't believe Bauwman was dropped and then came straight back to win the KOM sprint (and the stage).

Jeez Vann with Mollema and Formolo I thought you were sitting sweet. Bike betting is humbling! But loads of fun I must say

Twitter: @HDiemont
The following user(s) said Thank You: The Vann

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #29 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Should be a cracking stage and very tough to control

1 unit Covi 16/1

1/2 unit Valta at 100/1

Taken 10/1 Landa outright for 5 units - for some reason woke up and was picturing him winning

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham
The following user(s) said Thank You: The Vann

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #30 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Magnus Cort for me on Saturday at 13/1, looks like one of the more suitabale stages for him

twitter: @goodforthegame
The following user(s) said Thank You: The Vann

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #31 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Giro Stage 8
Mountain top tomorrow so expect GC to take it easy. Problem for the break today is the stage is short at 153km and it is also rated b - which means full ciclamino jersey points and most sprint teams will be interested. A few darts for me and maybe an in-play near the end

Win
Ulissi @ 33/1
Eenkhoorn @ 50/1
Zabel @ 1000/1
e/w
Gall @ 150/1
The following user(s) said Thank You: Stoossy

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago - 1 year 11 months ago #32 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Stage 9

Valter @80/1

Twitter @kamalch53215288
Last edit: 1 year 11 months ago by kcmarinopirlo.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #33 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Should be a cracker today and break must have a good chance

I really am just throwing darts here

0.5u on

Valta 80/1
Porte 33/1
Pozzivivo 150/1

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #34 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
2 units on Carthy to beat Sosa and Yates to beat Carapaz at 9/2

But my main bet - 5 units that Lopez doesn't stay in pink at 6/10 - if this stage is ridden as I hope it will be I can see him losing minutes

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #35 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
I have absolutely no idea on the giro but noticed some action on this thread so I’m here for an interest -

Pedrero 28/1
Da la Cruz 33/1

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #36 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
With you guys on Valta for smalls and then might get involved in play on Sunday

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #37 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Bad miss on Thomas dG yesterday. Last guy I dropped before placing and did not take the 8/1 with 50km left. Could not see him beating vd Poel and Girmay.

Giro Stage 9
What complicates the call today is the +- 90km of lumpy bumpy between the very difficult start and the two big climbs finish. Will GC teams chase? I'm going with a few darts - a reasonable shot at the double and probably something in-play.

Win
Formolo @ 17/1
Taaramae @ 75/1
Joining all on Valter
e/w
Pozzovivo @ 175/1
Double
Carthy/Sosa - Buchmann/Hindley @ 27/10

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago - 1 year 11 months ago #38 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Not sure the break stays but need someone to cheer
165km to go

Peters @ 25/1
Last edit: 1 year 11 months ago by The Vann.

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #39 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
What a ride by the Pink jersey and a costly stage for me but a great watch although I think wind prevent massive gaps I expected on the final climb

Very sad for Yates

Chat with me on Twitter - @BrentGraham

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago - 1 year 11 months ago #40 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Giro Rest Day Review
Punting side easy to summarise. Bet money - Lose money.
After 190km yesterday with 150metres to go my 175/1 (Brents 150/1 ) slotted into the slip stream of the first rider to jump and then faded away. Story of the week.
Slim pickings on the outrights
Think that Hindley podium at 7/2 is reasonable. He finished 2nd in 2020 beating Almeida and looks like the podium is between the five who finished 1-5 yesterday. I won't be taking as I am happy with my Bardet e/w
Have to have smalls on something so here is my logic.
Bike exchange just announced that Yates will continue tomorrow and will look for a stage win when his knee improves. Except for the Sobrero possibility on the final stage Bike exchange have nothing else to offer except letting Hamilton go to see what he can do. Makes these odds look reasonable

KOM
Hamilton @ 115/1
Last edit: 1 year 11 months ago by The Vann.
The following user(s) said Thank You: mackem, kt6747

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #41 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Yeah been a rough punting first week, Bilbao crashing was devastating but Arensman still in the hunt for White! We live in hope...

Onto Stage 10

DeMarchi looks lively @150/1

Twitter @kamalch53215288
The following user(s) said Thank You: mackem, Couch Critic, The Vann

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #42 by Couch Critic
Replied by Couch Critic on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Jeez I haven't seen such a confusing stage in a long time - plenty of scenarios being thrown around.

Perfect break stage but I have a feeling the interests of MvdP and Girmay (as well as hopes of Gaviria and Ewan) could mean potential breaks are chased down for the most part.

Van der Poel saw the other day that there are problems with being the outright fancy for a stage and one wonders how he will play things as again this is 100% his type of parcours. Imo he would be best served to stay in the pack and have a massive crack up the 3km at almost 7% climb leaving the sprinters in his dust from that point on.

Anyway I can't have him at such a short price and will rather throw a longer shot dart or two hoping for either a long range breakaway allowed or a late break when the hills start.

Eenkhoorn 50/1
Lorenzo Rota 50/1
Ben Swift 200/1
Alex Dowsett 400/1

Twitter: @HDiemont
The following user(s) said Thank You: mackem, The Vann

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #43 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Giro Stage 10
Stage is rated c which means half sprint points on the line but I believe FDJ will not let Girmay go up the road and Girmay usually follows vd Poel. Should leave enough fire power to chase down a break. Two up front for me and will keep a few pence on hand should the break look good.

Win
Nizzola @ 33/1
e/w
Gavira @ 33/1
The following user(s) said Thank You: Couch Critic

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #44 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Stage 10, sticking with Magnus Court at 14's

twitter: @goodforthegame

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #45 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Fantastic Stage!

Chapeau to DeMarchi give it a proper go but Intermache and Bini just too good.

Twitter @kamalch53215288

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #46 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
A moral victory yesterday kc.
My day consisted of the Covi (UAE) attack on the final climb which caused my bet and the last outright sprinter in the pack Gavira (UAE) to be dropped. At least my ciclamino outright - Girmay at 8/1 - wins the stage and closes to 3 points behind Demare. Odds now 8/10 on Girmay who then promptly takes a champagne cork to the eye and won't start. You can't make this shit up.

Giro Stage 11
Looks like 200km of straight flat boredom today. Should be a bunch sprint. I don't like the look of the road furniture in the last 5km so just hoping everone gets through safely. A few beers for the watch. No idea why Caleb faded so early yesterday but if he is OK he usually manages quite well in this kind of finish.

Win
Ewan @ 15/4

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #47 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
I keep putting my bets up so that any punter on a really bad run can check this thread and tell the missus "You think I'm bad? You must see the idiot Vann on the cycling" On the plus side - Caleb Ewan pulled this morning so can't lose any more money on him.

Giro Stage 12
204km Today with a few low Cat climbs. Last around 4km at 8.5% with 30km to go. Nothing really steep at the start so the light climbers may struggle to get into the break. Have to have the birthday boy de Marchi in today

Win
Covi @ 14/1
Rota @ 25/1
Mollema @ 25/1
e/w
de Marchi @ 66/1

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #48 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Hard lines on Stage 12 Vann, I was on Magnus Cort who was in the break but I'm hoping he had Stage 13 in mind as sat up when the going got tough on that last climb and trailed in way behind the bunch. So Friday, Cort win at 28/1

twitter: @goodforthegame
The following user(s) said Thank You: The Vann

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #49 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
Interested all the way to the line yesterday but still zip.

Giro Stage 13
150km With a Cat 3 topping out around 100km from the end. Can always take an in-play 50km out as I will probably go Gavira. He should not shorten much from the current 4/1.

Win
Schmid @ 22/1
Cort @ 33/1 (Joining Chris here)
e/w
Tagliani @ 500/1 (Teams been active and one will make the break)

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

More
1 year 11 months ago #50 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Cycling : Giro d'Italia
As my last outright - Bardet - is stretchered away an in-play for today. Good news for Brent's dream on Landa though

80km to go
Gavira @ 3/1

Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.

Powered by Kunena Forum