Super Rugby Pacific, Gallagher Premiership, URC Rugby 20-22 May

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1 year 11 months ago #1 by Brent Graham
Last weekend I was complaining I could not watch alot of rugby and so never maximised profit in a weekend where I was in great form in the previews. This week I can only say thank goodness the the situation applied as I had a shocker and none less so than the Best Bet in the newsletter of Bulls -16.5.

I was actually a bit worried about team selection thinking Lions might load a bit but I never envisioned the Bulls massive changes. The Lion started favourites and although the Bulls actually looked like delivering at one point it ended up a disappointing loss.

Onto a new week though and hopefully it will be a better one

Lets start with Super Rugby and here are my handicap projections - I expect I may be well out on a few

Crusaders -34.5 v Drua (I m assuming the Crusaders are close to full strength)
Reds -12.5 v Moana Pasifika
Chiefs -22.5 v Force
Hurricanes -22.5 v Rebels
Brumbies +8.5 v Blues
Highlanders -4.5 v Waratahs

The SA teams are back in URC action and here are my handicap projections

Ulster -9.5 v Sharks
Ospreys +8.5 v Bulls
Dragons +5.5 v Lions
Scarlets +5.5 v Stormers

There is also Gallagher Prem and Toulouse 7s

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Have a good one

BG

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1 year 11 months ago #2 by southpaw
Oddly the biggest cap of weekend jumps out at me,

Crusaders -30

Drua shortish turnaround and will be 3 games in 12 days. Leaked 60 to Canes and Saders if mostly first choice can cover this, could see the Drua leaking penalties a plenty against a side like Saders.

Weather my only concern at this point. And any mass team changes, but I think they will go strong.
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1 year 11 months ago #3 by Brent Graham
Sunbets lines in brackets next to mine

Crusaders -34.5 (-30.5) v Drua
Reds -12.5 (-17.5) v Moana Pasifika
Chiefs -22.5 (-24.5) v Force
Hurricanes -22.5 (-18.5) v Rebels
Brumbies +8.5 (+7.5) v Blues
Highlanders -4.5 (-9.5) v Waratahs

Agree with South on Saders and put another way there is no chance I am taking the Drua plus

I think my Reds and Highlanders caps were a bit out although leaning Waratahs +9.5 and I like the Hurricanes -18.5 early doors

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1 year 11 months ago #4 by Roger Rabbit
Tuesday night rugby , the conditions look great, and I’m on the overs, 56.5 at Sunbet

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1 year 11 months ago #5 by Roger Rabbit
Half stake under 64.5 at the break

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1 year 11 months ago #6 by BuggerBoy
I have been counting down the days until this weekends Toulouse Sevens event after we absolutely smashed the Canada Women’s Sevens a few weeks back.

This event will be played over three days and feature a Men’s and Women’s tournament. I expect plenty of value to be on offer and will have my early plays posted the moment the handicaps are set. Should be an absolute cracker!
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1 year 11 months ago #7 by Jameson
I'm looking at Ospreys -2 on a UK bookmakers site. I suppose the thinking is that there are around 8 players in the Ospreys team that will play in the tests v SA in a few weeks .....

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1 year 11 months ago #8 by Brent Graham
The Handicap live at 21h00

Click here to watch on You Tube


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1 year 11 months ago - 1 year 11 months ago #9 by BuggerBoy
Caps are out for the first slate of Men’s and Women’s sevens matches. Unfortunately no Mexican women’s side this week to help us line our bank account. A great deal of uncertainty in these early matches. Many caps look well set, and with a number of the weaker teams in the tournament playing their first matches in quite a long time I will be treading lightly for the first session. Just three plays for me as of now, all on the Women’s side.

USA Women +5.5 vs Fiji

Neither team has been on fire lately, but this match should be pretty close to even. USA beat Fiji 20-19 a few weeks ago and have covered the +5.5 in 11 of 13 all time meetings.

Brazil Women +21.5 vs France

Brazil and France faced off just a few weeks ago in Canada. I was really impressed with Brazil’s ability to hang in there against top quality opposition as they went down 19-10. Always a little nervy taking an underdog where there is a clear gulf in quality, as it’s possible France could turn on the jets and blitz them. I just think this is too many points, especially for a first match of the tournament when the top teams may need a game or two to be at their high flying best.

Ireland Women -7.5 vs England

England are in shambles. They looked really poor in Canada a few weeks back. Ireland has smashed England by 29 and 31 points already this year. Not a difficult call here.
Last edit: 1 year 11 months ago by BuggerBoy.
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1 year 11 months ago #10 by BuggerBoy
Adding a Draw No Bet parlay on the following four Sevens matches:

Canada Women Win vs Spain
Ireland Women Win vs England
South Africa Men’s Win vs Ireland
Samoa Men’s Win vs Spain

Odds: 2.07 (bet365)

None of these teams should be troubled in their opening matches.

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1 year 11 months ago #11 by Brent Graham
Crusaders v Drua betting preview

Small interest (3 units) Crusaders minus 29.5

Reds v Moana betting preview

Reds -17.5 for 4 units

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1 year 11 months ago #12 by hanrick
Crusaders under 47.5 points at 5/6. Dangerous bet, but quote feels to high with a few combinations that has not played together recently.

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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1 year 11 months ago #13 by Wager Warlock
Also giving the 7s a bash this weekend.

Some early likes for me:

Ireland (W) -7.5 vs England (W)
Ireland (M) +10.5 vs SA (M)
Arg (M) -28.5 vs Jap (M)
Canada (M) +6.5 vs Eng (M)

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1 year 11 months ago #14 by hanrick

hanrick wrote: Crusaders under 47.5 points at 5/6. Dangerous bet, but quote feels to high with a few combinations that has not played together recently.


Back into your hole

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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1 year 11 months ago #15 by Jameson

hanrick wrote:

hanrick wrote: Crusaders under 47.5 points at 5/6. Dangerous bet, but quote feels to high with a few combinations that has not played together recently.


Back into your hole


The new combinations worked out then? :-)

Need the Reds to come good next up ......

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1 year 11 months ago #16 by Jameson
What's happened to the show on youtube? Says its 'private'. Or am I being extra stupid?

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1 year 11 months ago #17 by hanrick

Jameson wrote:

hanrick wrote:

hanrick wrote: Crusaders under 47.5 points at 5/6. Dangerous bet, but quote feels to high with a few combinations that has not played together recently.


Back into your hole


The new combinations worked out then? :-)

Need the Reds to come good next up ......


Probably. Or more likely, just a shit call from me.

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart

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1 year 11 months ago #18 by shark prince
Hey lads, just went to watch the show from last night but it seems to be on private! Is it the same for everyone?

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1 year 11 months ago #19 by BuggerBoy

BuggerBoy wrote: Caps are out for the first slate of Men’s and Women’s sevens matches. Unfortunately no Mexican women’s side this week to help us line our bank account. A great deal of uncertainty in these early matches. Many caps look well set, and with a number of the weaker teams in the tournament playing their first matches in quite a long time I will be treading lightly for the first session. Just three plays for me as of now, all on the Women’s side.

USA Women +5.5 vs Fiji

Neither team has been on fire lately, but this match should be pretty close to even. USA beat Fiji 20-19 a few weeks ago and have covered the +5.5 in 11 of 13 all time meetings.

Brazil Women +21.5 vs France

Brazil and France faced off just a few weeks ago in Canada. I was really impressed with Brazil’s ability to hang in there against top quality opposition as they went down 19-10. Always a little nervy taking an underdog where there is a clear gulf in quality, as it’s possible France could turn on the jets and blitz them. I just think this is too many points, especially for a first match of the tournament when the top teams may need a game or two to be at their high flying best.

Ireland Women -7.5 vs England

England are in shambles. They looked really poor in Canada a few weeks back. Ireland has smashed England by 29 and 31 points already this year. Not a difficult call here.


I won’t lie. It wasn’t looking good. Had it all wrong as Fiji demolished the US and Brazil were down 24-0 late. However, a later Brazil try was able to salvage a 24-5 loss and cover our +21.5.

Ireland did the business on England as expected and all of a sudden a dire start turns into 2/3 for our first session bets, as well has halfway to completing our parlay!

Will post second session bets as caps become available.

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1 year 11 months ago #20 by mackem
Ospreys v Bulls from Brent

goodforthegame.co.za/South-Africa-Rugby/...review-and-tips.html

4 Units over 47.5 points at 9/10 at WSB

twitter: @goodforthegame
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1 year 11 months ago #21 by Jameson
The Reds comfortably winning - the penalty count anyway. Currently 12-6. Awful.

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1 year 11 months ago #22 by blesbok007
Ulster vs Sharks - total Sharks points over 16.5 @ 1.79
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1 year 11 months ago #23 by southpaw
Nice start to weekend with Saders cruising home.

I'm following Brent tonight -

over 47.5 @ 5/6 Ospreys v Bulls

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1 year 11 months ago #24 by Brent Graham

shark prince wrote: Hey lads, just went to watch the show from last night but it seems to be on private! Is it the same for everyone?


Hi SP - I was in a meeting when I saw a message from You Tube saying show is set to Private as

Hi Goodforthegame,


Our team has reviewed your content, and we think that you may need to make changes to make sure that it doesn't violate our spam, deceptive practices and scams policy. In the meantime, we've made the following content private:


Video: The Handicap: Rugby Betting Preview 20-22 May



We haven't applied a strike to your channel, and if you make changes, or if you think that we've made a mistake, you can request that your content be made public again. However, there may be some instances where YouTube keeps your content private.


What 'locked as private' means


Content locked as private won't appear on your channel or in search results, and it won't be visible to other users. Learn more about how this works.



I am seriously annoyed - impossible to get help and nothing was different from any other week

Here is the link to Facebook version www.facebook.com/Goodforthegame/videos/676113246810057/

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1 year 11 months ago #25 by Brent Graham
A few more previews

Lions and Highlanders will follow when points lines are out

Chiefs v Force betting preview


Chiefs minus 23.5

Hurricanes v Rebels betting preview

Hurricanes -18.5

Brumbies v Blues betting preview

Blues 1-12 at 7/4

Scarlets v Stormers betting preview

Stormers 1-12 at 31/20

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1 year 11 months ago #26 by Jameson
Welsh rugby RIP :-(

Have mercy on us SA !

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1 year 11 months ago #27 by southpaw
Nice game ospreys bulls and good betting result. Cornel still got it.

Can’t watch 1st game tomorrow but sentimental bet, Kahui back at old home.

Kahui last try @ 22/1

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1 year 11 months ago #28 by Brent Graham
Hurricanes over 5.5 tries at 17/20

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1 year 11 months ago #29 by shark prince
No problems Brent, thanks for the fb link. Ridiculous from youtube - makes no sense.
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1 year 11 months ago #30 by southpaw
Over 57.5 @ 9/10 canes v rebels

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1 year 11 months ago #31 by southpaw
Stormers over 27.5 @ 5/6

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1 year 11 months ago #32 by coil

shark prince wrote: No problems Brent, thanks for the fb link. Ridiculous from youtube - makes no sense.


Have no fear , it's the fact checkers doing their bit ! :whistle:

I like the Exiles today , though both sides can't be relied on too much .

Leicester to cover their cap and Saints on the half time cap against Sarries .

Like the Stormers plenty as well today .

Play well lads

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1 year 11 months ago #33 by Brent Graham
Over 7.5 tries Dragons v Lions at 11/10

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1 year 11 months ago #34 by Jameson
A Dragons win and Stormers -6 !

Scarlets to get done up front.

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1 year 11 months ago #35 by southpaw
Highlanders over 4.5 tries @ 8/10

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1 year 11 months ago #36 by southpaw
Highlanders woeful. After a good weekend up until yesterday afternoon the stormers and this match were not good results, got a bit too confident.

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1 year 11 months ago #37 by Quill
Rugby Sevens - Women

Brazil vs France

France has won all their previous meetings so far.
At this tournament they met in the group stage, when France won 24-7, with Brazil women scoring their try in the last minute of play.

Bet: France -15.5 @1.83

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1 year 11 months ago #38 by Quill
Rugby Sevens - Women

Canada vs USA

Canada won two matches at this tournament, while USA only one.
Three weeks ago Canada beat USA 12-7.
I think Canada will at least stay close.

Bet: Canada +5.5 @1.80

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1 year 11 months ago #39 by Quill
Rugby Sevens - Men

Spain vs New Zealand

In a huge surprise at this tournament, New Zealand are playing for the 9th place only, as they finished third in the group stage, equal on points with the top team, but with a poorer points difference than the first two teams.
They won their first play-off match 28-0 against Wales, and now they play Spain, who won only one match at this tournament.
I expect New Zealand to show their class and win comfortably.

Bet: New Zealand -21.5 @1.83

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1 year 11 months ago #40 by coil
Superb calls Quill !!
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1 year 11 months ago #41 by Quill
Rugby Sevens - Women

New Zealand vs Fiji

This is the semifinal.
New Zealand won all their four matches to nil at this tournament, winning by big margins or at least comfortably (the smallest margin was a 17-0 against Canada).

Fiji lost one of their matches, 21-31 against Australia.
Prior to that Fiji lost several matches in the previous tournaments this year and last year.

Last time New Zealand lost a match was three weeks ago to Australia, and prior to that they had not lost in more than 30 matches.
The New Zealand ladies are on fire and the handicap of -5.5 is tempting.

Bet: New Zealand -5.5 @1.89

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1 year 11 months ago #42 by Quill
Rugby Sevens - Men

Ireland vs France

This is a semifinal match.

All France's matches at this tournament have been overs, including the quarter-final against Australia (21-19).
Most of France's matches at all tournaments are overs.
At this tournament they scored at least 21 points in all their matches, including in their defeat to Fiji (21-33), which hasn't happened in other recent tournaments.

France looks bent on going to the final in big attacking style.
Let's see...

Bet 1: Over 34.5 points @1.83
Bet 2: France Total Points Over 20.5 @1.80

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1 year 11 months ago #43 by Quill
Rugby Sevens - Men

Fiji vs Samoa

This is the second semifinal.
Samoa is playing spectacular rugby at this tournament, and against a Fiji side that plays attractive rugby anyway, I hope we'll see points.

Bet: Over 35.5 points @1.83

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1 year 11 months ago #44 by Quill
Rugby Sevens - Women

Fiji vs Ireland

This is the 3rd place match.

At this tournament Ireland lost to France 5-12 and in the semifinals to Australia 7-40.
Fiji beat France 24-12 and lost to Australia 21-31.

The difference is clearly in favour of Fiji ladies.

Bet: Fiji -7.5 @1.90

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