Super Rugby Pacific, Gallagher Premiership, URC Rugby 20-22 May
- Brent Graham
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I was actually a bit worried about team selection thinking Lions might load a bit but I never envisioned the Bulls massive changes. The Lion started favourites and although the Bulls actually looked like delivering at one point it ended up a disappointing loss.
Onto a new week though and hopefully it will be a better one
Lets start with Super Rugby and here are my handicap projections - I expect I may be well out on a few
Crusaders -34.5 v Drua (I m assuming the Crusaders are close to full strength)
Reds -12.5 v Moana Pasifika
Chiefs -22.5 v Force
Hurricanes -22.5 v Rebels
Brumbies +8.5 v Blues
Highlanders -4.5 v Waratahs
The SA teams are back in URC action and here are my handicap projections
Ulster -9.5 v Sharks
Ospreys +8.5 v Bulls
Dragons +5.5 v Lions
Scarlets +5.5 v Stormers
There is also Gallagher Prem and Toulouse 7s
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BG
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- southpaw
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Crusaders -30
Drua shortish turnaround and will be 3 games in 12 days. Leaked 60 to Canes and Saders if mostly first choice can cover this, could see the Drua leaking penalties a plenty against a side like Saders.
Weather my only concern at this point. And any mass team changes, but I think they will go strong.
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- Brent Graham
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Crusaders -34.5 (-30.5) v Drua
Reds -12.5 (-17.5) v Moana Pasifika
Chiefs -22.5 (-24.5) v Force
Hurricanes -22.5 (-18.5) v Rebels
Brumbies +8.5 (+7.5) v Blues
Highlanders -4.5 (-9.5) v Waratahs
Agree with South on Saders and put another way there is no chance I am taking the Drua plus
I think my Reds and Highlanders caps were a bit out although leaning Waratahs +9.5 and I like the Hurricanes -18.5 early doors
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- Roger Rabbit
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- Roger Rabbit
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- BuggerBoy
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This event will be played over three days and feature a Men’s and Women’s tournament. I expect plenty of value to be on offer and will have my early plays posted the moment the handicaps are set. Should be an absolute cracker!
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- Brent Graham
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- BuggerBoy
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USA Women +5.5 vs Fiji
Neither team has been on fire lately, but this match should be pretty close to even. USA beat Fiji 20-19 a few weeks ago and have covered the +5.5 in 11 of 13 all time meetings.
Brazil Women +21.5 vs France
Brazil and France faced off just a few weeks ago in Canada. I was really impressed with Brazil’s ability to hang in there against top quality opposition as they went down 19-10. Always a little nervy taking an underdog where there is a clear gulf in quality, as it’s possible France could turn on the jets and blitz them. I just think this is too many points, especially for a first match of the tournament when the top teams may need a game or two to be at their high flying best.
Ireland Women -7.5 vs England
England are in shambles. They looked really poor in Canada a few weeks back. Ireland has smashed England by 29 and 31 points already this year. Not a difficult call here.
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- BuggerBoy
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Canada Women Win vs Spain
Ireland Women Win vs England
South Africa Men’s Win vs Ireland
Samoa Men’s Win vs Spain
Odds: 2.07 (bet365)
None of these teams should be troubled in their opening matches.
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- Brent Graham
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Small interest (3 units) Crusaders minus 29.5
Reds v Moana betting preview
Reds -17.5 for 4 units
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- hanrick
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- Wager Warlock
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Some early likes for me:
Ireland (W) -7.5 vs England (W)
Ireland (M) +10.5 vs SA (M)
Arg (M) -28.5 vs Jap (M)
Canada (M) +6.5 vs Eng (M)
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- hanrick
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hanrick wrote: Crusaders under 47.5 points at 5/6. Dangerous bet, but quote feels to high with a few combinations that has not played together recently.
Back into your hole
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- Jameson
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hanrick wrote:
hanrick wrote: Crusaders under 47.5 points at 5/6. Dangerous bet, but quote feels to high with a few combinations that has not played together recently.
Back into your hole
The new combinations worked out then?
Need the Reds to come good next up ......
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- hanrick
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Jameson wrote:
hanrick wrote:
hanrick wrote: Crusaders under 47.5 points at 5/6. Dangerous bet, but quote feels to high with a few combinations that has not played together recently.
Back into your hole
The new combinations worked out then?
Need the Reds to come good next up ......
Probably. Or more likely, just a shit call from me.
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- shark prince
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- BuggerBoy
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BuggerBoy wrote: Caps are out for the first slate of Men’s and Women’s sevens matches. Unfortunately no Mexican women’s side this week to help us line our bank account. A great deal of uncertainty in these early matches. Many caps look well set, and with a number of the weaker teams in the tournament playing their first matches in quite a long time I will be treading lightly for the first session. Just three plays for me as of now, all on the Women’s side.
USA Women +5.5 vs Fiji
Neither team has been on fire lately, but this match should be pretty close to even. USA beat Fiji 20-19 a few weeks ago and have covered the +5.5 in 11 of 13 all time meetings.
Brazil Women +21.5 vs France
Brazil and France faced off just a few weeks ago in Canada. I was really impressed with Brazil’s ability to hang in there against top quality opposition as they went down 19-10. Always a little nervy taking an underdog where there is a clear gulf in quality, as it’s possible France could turn on the jets and blitz them. I just think this is too many points, especially for a first match of the tournament when the top teams may need a game or two to be at their high flying best.
Ireland Women -7.5 vs England
England are in shambles. They looked really poor in Canada a few weeks back. Ireland has smashed England by 29 and 31 points already this year. Not a difficult call here.
I won’t lie. It wasn’t looking good. Had it all wrong as Fiji demolished the US and Brazil were down 24-0 late. However, a later Brazil try was able to salvage a 24-5 loss and cover our +21.5.
Ireland did the business on England as expected and all of a sudden a dire start turns into 2/3 for our first session bets, as well has halfway to completing our parlay!
Will post second session bets as caps become available.
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- mackem
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4 Units over 47.5 points at 9/10 at WSB
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- southpaw
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I'm following Brent tonight -
over 47.5 @ 5/6 Ospreys v Bulls
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- Brent Graham
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shark prince wrote: Hey lads, just went to watch the show from last night but it seems to be on private! Is it the same for everyone?
Hi SP - I was in a meeting when I saw a message from You Tube saying show is set to Private as
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Video: The Handicap: Rugby Betting Preview 20-22 May
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I am seriously annoyed - impossible to get help and nothing was different from any other week
Here is the link to Facebook version www.facebook.com/Goodforthegame/videos/676113246810057/
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- Brent Graham
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Lions and Highlanders will follow when points lines are out
Chiefs v Force betting preview
Chiefs minus 23.5
Hurricanes v Rebels betting preview
Hurricanes -18.5
Brumbies v Blues betting preview
Blues 1-12 at 7/4
Scarlets v Stormers betting preview
Stormers 1-12 at 31/20
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- Jameson
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Have mercy on us SA !
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- southpaw
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Can’t watch 1st game tomorrow but sentimental bet, Kahui back at old home.
Kahui last try @ 22/1
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- Brent Graham
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- coil
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shark prince wrote: No problems Brent, thanks for the fb link. Ridiculous from youtube - makes no sense.
Have no fear , it's the fact checkers doing their bit !
I like the Exiles today , though both sides can't be relied on too much .
Leicester to cover their cap and Saints on the half time cap against Sarries .
Like the Stormers plenty as well today .
Play well lads
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- Brent Graham
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- Jameson
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Scarlets to get done up front.
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- Quill
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Brazil vs France
France has won all their previous meetings so far.
At this tournament they met in the group stage, when France won 24-7, with Brazil women scoring their try in the last minute of play.
Bet: France -15.5 @1.83
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- Quill
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Canada vs USA
Canada won two matches at this tournament, while USA only one.
Three weeks ago Canada beat USA 12-7.
I think Canada will at least stay close.
Bet: Canada +5.5 @1.80
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- Quill
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Spain vs New Zealand
In a huge surprise at this tournament, New Zealand are playing for the 9th place only, as they finished third in the group stage, equal on points with the top team, but with a poorer points difference than the first two teams.
They won their first play-off match 28-0 against Wales, and now they play Spain, who won only one match at this tournament.
I expect New Zealand to show their class and win comfortably.
Bet: New Zealand -21.5 @1.83
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- Quill
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New Zealand vs Fiji
This is the semifinal.
New Zealand won all their four matches to nil at this tournament, winning by big margins or at least comfortably (the smallest margin was a 17-0 against Canada).
Fiji lost one of their matches, 21-31 against Australia.
Prior to that Fiji lost several matches in the previous tournaments this year and last year.
Last time New Zealand lost a match was three weeks ago to Australia, and prior to that they had not lost in more than 30 matches.
The New Zealand ladies are on fire and the handicap of -5.5 is tempting.
Bet: New Zealand -5.5 @1.89
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- Quill
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Ireland vs France
This is a semifinal match.
All France's matches at this tournament have been overs, including the quarter-final against Australia (21-19).
Most of France's matches at all tournaments are overs.
At this tournament they scored at least 21 points in all their matches, including in their defeat to Fiji (21-33), which hasn't happened in other recent tournaments.
France looks bent on going to the final in big attacking style.
Let's see...
Bet 1: Over 34.5 points @1.83
Bet 2: France Total Points Over 20.5 @1.80
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- Quill
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Fiji vs Samoa
This is the second semifinal.
Samoa is playing spectacular rugby at this tournament, and against a Fiji side that plays attractive rugby anyway, I hope we'll see points.
Bet: Over 35.5 points @1.83
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- Quill
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Fiji vs Ireland
This is the 3rd place match.
At this tournament Ireland lost to France 5-12 and in the semifinals to Australia 7-40.
Fiji beat France 24-12 and lost to Australia 21-31.
The difference is clearly in favour of Fiji ladies.
Bet: Fiji -7.5 @1.90
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