Cycling : Tour de France
- The Vann
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We are off tomorrow. From a punting perspective I am usually interested in ITT's and mountain top finishes. On the ITT side we kick off with 13km and a flat 41km on the penultimate stage. The flat 41km means my man Bardet cannot win which is why he is on offer at 100/1. On mountain top finishes of cat 2 or more difficulty we have 8 which is more then normal and I always feel these finishes give us punters a chance. Sprints are listed as 7 but I think stage 13 is a classic break away so 6 max.
I am loathe to pick much by way of outrights as Covid is going to be the books buddy. Darryl Impey trained away from his family and did everything possible to stay clean but tested positive an hour ago and is out. The UCI are trying to arrange for riders who have no symptons to stay in the race but I doubt whether the media and government will allow this.
I will give outrights some thought and post well before the off in Copenhagen tomorrow.
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Brandon McNulty for yellow @200/1 (took this early in season in case of issues with Pog)
Danny Van Poppel for Green @150/1 (once Bennett wasnt selected he became Boras sprinter and Bookies left him too high)
Adam Yates for Polkadot @125/1 (Can see him shipping a bunch of time in first week in TT, echelons and the cobbled stage and hopefully let of the leash in week two to hunt for this)
Luke Durbridge over Jan Tratnik @20/29 for stage 1 TT (technical city TT and Bike Exchange have a superior wind Suit that we have already seen do wonders for Simon Yates) Rumour is Alpecin Fenix now use the suit too so interested to see how MVDP goes tomorrow.
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- The Vann
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Interesting thoughts on Yates kc. Floating around our markets at 150/1. I've taken a beer.
As we speak Bahrain are being hassled by the long arm of the law and they left their press conference in a huff earlier today. Not likely that they will produce their best. Israel Premier Tech are sadly useless. Lead by Froome who is now terrified of heights they are heading down to the second tier of cycling after a season that is as disorganized as it can get..
Team Competition Match Bets
Bora H/Bahrain @ 5/4
Arkea Samsic/Israel PT @ 27/20
And - in the unlikely event that Covid takes out Jumbo and Ineos
1-3
My man Bardet @ 20/1
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- Brent Graham
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- The Vann
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Certainly looks like a Ganna stage and throwing in a match bet double
Win
Ganna @ 13/10
Match bet double
vd Poel/Kung - Thomas/Pogacar @ 26/10
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- Brent Graham
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1u Groenewegen at 5/1
Summary after Stage 1
Long Term Invested: 0 unit
Stage: -2u
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- Cyclingexpert
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- The Vann
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Stage 2
Winner will probably only take the wind for just over 100m hence the short odds on Jakobson who will get the best lead out. I'm going for an old dude who can hold his sprint in these conditions the longest. I also fancy Wout to lay it all on the line for that top 2 which will give him the yellow jersey.
Podium 1-3
Kristoff @ 7/1
Match bet double
van Aert/Pedersen - Kristoff/Walscheid @ 13/10
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Ewan > Groenewegen @EVS
Scrappy sprint yesterday can imagine the same here, both leadouts looked poor too, but Caleb at least had a mechanical!
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- Brent Graham
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- The Vann
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Generally felt most of the sprint trains screwed up yesterday probably because it was the first sprint stage and the curve near the end trapped some on the inside. Today is promised to be straight for the last 750m or so. Don't hold out much hope for Bike Exchange or Lotto getting it right ( makes that Caleb/Dylan bet look tasty) but I think Alpecin will do much better.
Tour de France Stage 3
e/w
Philipsen @ 15/2 (Main bet for day the 1-3 @ 12/10)
Match bet double
Sagan/van Poppel - Hofstetter/Walscheid @ 13/10
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- southpaw
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Jasper Phillipsen @ 8/1 win
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Bit of a Deviation by Dylan killed our Match bet and Sagan involved again with the Argy bargy. Do think he gets away with more than others!
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- Brent Graham
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Personally I think Ewan just got unlucky choosing the wrong line - I didn't think the others guys did anything wrong
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- Brent Graham
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Long Term Invested: 0 unit
Stage: -5u
Stage 4 Betting Preview
1 u Van Aert at 15/4
2u Sagan/Van Poppel Jakobsen/Groenewegen at 7/5
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- mackem
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Stage 4, with BG on WvA
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- The Vann
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Tour de France Stage 4
Win
van Aert @ 33/10 (You guys took all the good odds)
1-3
Sagan @ 3/1
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- kcmarinopirlo
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- The Vann
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Have taken a punt on a couple of decent cobblers with a sprint in case of a dud;
Hugo Hofstetter @80/1
Andrea Pasqualon @350/1
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- mackem
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- Couch Critic
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Today I like strongman Stuyven to benefit from Trek going all in at 25/1.
Darts on Dewulf & Madouas at around 250/1
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- Brent Graham
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What a ride from Jumbo and Wout - poor old Philipsen but he has taken it well
Summary after Stage 4
Long Term Invested: 0 unit
Stage: +1.55U
0.5u Ganna 50/1, Dainese 300/1
2u Double MVDP/WVA onto Thomas/Roglic at 39/20
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- The Vann
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Will need to find another site for describing the last 1km as yesterdays last 500m looked perfectly easy to me.
Tour de France Stage 5
Beer level bets today as anything can happen on the cobbles.
Win
van der Hoorn @ 66/1
Walscheid @ 100/1
e/w
Turgis @ 150/1
Boivin @ 300/1
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- kcmarinopirlo
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Romain Bardet Top 10 @6/4
Has come out relatively unscathed so far compared to O'Connor + Lutsenko etc and no reason he cant climb or better the likes of Thomas / Nairo + Uran in the Mountains.
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- mackem
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BG going 1 unit Pgacar and 0.5 unit Cosnofroy
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- mackem
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- Couch Critic
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Quinn Simmons 66/1
Madouas 300/1
Gaudu over Vlasov @ 16/10
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- The Vann
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Tour de France Stage 6
Going with the Cosnefroy board pick plus the missus likes his hair and adding
Win
Simmons @ 50/1
e/w
Madouas @ 150/1
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- southpaw
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35km to go
Michael Matthews @ 10/1
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- Brent Graham
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Summary after Stage 6
Long Term Invested: 0 unit
Stage: +6U
Stage 7 preview on You Tube
3 units Pogacar in Yellow at end of stage NO at 19/4 Sunbet (opened 11/2 and I think will shorten further)
0.5u on Mollema 28/1, Barguil 80/1, Bouchard and Martin 100/1
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- mackem
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- The Vann
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Tour de France Stage 7
The stage looks perfect for the break and therefor for an in-play so one up front and a match bet or so
Win
Teuns @ 20/1
Match bet
Roglic/Vlasov @ 18/10
Match bet double
Roglic/Vlasov - Bardet/Gaudu @ 7/1
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- Brent Graham
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- kcmarinopirlo
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- Brent Graham
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Long Term Invested: 0 unit
Stage: +1 unit
Getting quite involved in Stage 8
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0.5u Bettiol 28/1, Guerreiro 40/1, Madouas 66/1
0.25u Thomas 100/1, Jungels 150/1
1 unit Yellow to change hands at 5/1
2 units Matthews/Van Aert at 2/1
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- kcmarinopirlo
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- mackem
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- The Vann
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@Brent - Jungels had arterial endofibrosis which was corrected by surgery last year. He is almost back to his best.
Tour de France Stage 8
Win
Cort @ 33/1
e/w
Jungels @ 150/1
Boassen Hagen @ 300/1
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- Brent Graham
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Summary after Stage 8
Long Term Invested: 0 unit
Stage: -4 unit
Stage 9 bets
0.5u Bettiol 28/1, B Thomas 66/1, Jungels 50/1
1 unit Kamna at 8/1
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- southpaw
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Muhlberger 100/1
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- mackem
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- The Vann
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Taking Jungels with Brent and cycling is one of the few sports where Hail Mary's have been known to bless punters a few times a year so on Joe with Chris.
Tour de France Stage 9
Win
Jungels @ 50/1
Wellens @ 66/1
Dombrowski @ 150/1
e/w
LL Sanchez @ 200/1
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- mackem
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- The Vann
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Covid is still a major concern so individual bets could be a problem. On the team side I am happy with my two outrights. On Sunday's stage Ineos let Castroviejo run for the time and Jumbo called Wout back so no bet there. Looking through the other jerseys the biggest odds gap to 2nd is in the green jersey. Really should be no bet today but I am unable to do that so here we go.
Green Jersey
Should Wout get the dreaded PCR pull who could sneak the green jersey. I think this guy makes Paris (if COVID Free) and has around a 12/10 chance of taking the jersey if Wout is pulled.
Win
Philipsen @ 28/1
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- Brent Graham
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Summary after Stage 9
Long Term Invested: 0 unit
Stage: +19 unit
Stage 10 Bets
0.5 unit on
B Thomas 40/1
Schultz 50/1
Simmons 80/1
Ganna 100/1
Jorgenson 100/1
0.25 unit Froome 300/1
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- The Vann
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Tour de France Stage 10
Looks like a classic break away to me
Win
Kron @ 22/1
Madouas @ 40/1
Simmons @ 66/1
Jorgenson @ 66/1
e/w
Paret-Peintre @ 100/1
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- Couch Critic
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My darts are on:
Lutsenko 40/1
Tratnik 66/1
Grossschartner 80/1
Bonnamour 125/1
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- Couch Critic
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WTF was Thomas (one of your plays) doing leading out Cort?! Schultz seemingly would have had it in the bag. Jeez I felt sick and it wasn't even my rider.
Great tipping having so many darts in play and REALY unlucky not to hit the bullseye today BG.
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- Brent Graham
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Cycling betting a tough old game but I love it
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