Rugby Champs Rd 6, United Rugby Champs Rd 2 , Premiership, NPC 23-25 Sep

NPC lines so far:

(Wednesday)
Taranaki v Counties (choice)

Canterbury -9.5 v Auckland
Bay of plenty -3.5 v Hawkes Bay
Tasman -4.5 v Northland
Wellington +2.5 v Waikato (Ranfurly Shield Game)
Manawatu +14.5 v Otago

Need to wait on team news but I really like Tasman on the minus. Thought they were really good away to Auckland. Rivez Reihana limped off for the Taniwha against North Harbour and he might be a big loss.

Via TAB NZ:

New Zealand -15.5 v Australia
51.5 points

South Africa -14.5 v Argentina
51.5 points

Massive pity the Boks game is in Durban as the points would’ve been a gift.

51.5 points at Eden park with the weather looking ok seems very low.

Since the Wallabies were so close to beating the All Blacks, despite the outcome and regardless of whether or not they'll win the Championship, I think they'll want to win there not only to break the Eden Park duck, but at least not to let the All Blacks win the Championship. Play the party poopers role. The All Blacks were undeserved winners, and because of that to go on and win the Championship?

Not that things in life are known to be fair, but THAT wouldn't be fair.

United Rugby Championship (via Bet365):

Zebre +16.5 v Sharks
Glasgow -6.5 v Cardiff
Leinster -25.5 v Benetton Treviso
Scarlets +3.5 v Ulster
Bulls -11.5 v Edinburgh
Stormers -15.5 v Connacht
Ospreys -10.5 v lions
Dragons +11.5 v Munster

Loving Zebre on the plus. Look revived and with a game under the belt they could catch Sharks cold. This is a high handicap for a team that ran Leinster close. Think Sharks will be much more physical than Leinster but there’s talk of Fred Zeilinga starting at 10 with Cronje and Bosch injured.

2nd big fancy is Connacht on the plus. Irish internationals available for Connie and Stormers missing a few through injury and internationals although do get back Dweba and Moerat from Boks.

If Ulster get back a few from injury I’ll look to back them on the minus. There’s talk of the Irish players selected for the SA tour also not playing this wknd which might affect Ulster, Leinster and Munster.

Gallagher premiership (via Bet365):

Bath -2.5 v Wasps
Bristol -8.5 v London Irish
Northampton +2.5 v Leicester Tigers
Saracens -11.5 v Gloucester
Exeter -4.5 v Harlequins

Caps seem well set this week but I do like London Irish on the plus again. Don’t think the Bristol defense is all that amazing. Should be good points as well with an afternoon kickoff and good weather predicted in Bristol.

Have taken a big strike on Connacht +13.5 v Stormers.

Connacht have their internationals back in the form of Hansen, Aki and Bealham. Butler also back for Connie.

Stormers side will be almost unrecognisable from the final game v the bulls. Gelant and Petersen have left, Fourie, Kitshoff, Malherbe and Jantjies at the Boks. Willemse, Nel and Zas injured. Dobson has said that he won’t play Dweba and Moerat straight away and will intergrate them. Has indicated that he will give some youngsters a chance.

Game at the Danie Craven Stadium in Stellenbosch and think that’s not a bad thing either as it more closely resembles the smaller nature of The Sportsground in Galway.

Weather looks good as well.

Will follow the Conductor here, got to like the confidence.

Connacht +13 @ 10/11

Taranaki Over 27.5

Totals has come down to 50.5 in response to Counties sending out a development squad. That should mean more points scored not less. If they keep putting low totals I'll continue taking it on.

Question for those much smarter than I am.

Why in the world do bookies not offer in-running on these midweek NPC games?

For me Benetton +25.5 ha is one of the best bets of the week. They shred Glasgow into pieces, starting as underdogs. Leinster defeated Zebre by a narrow margin. Some internationals absences for the home side, I cannot see a plus 20 points difference in this match.

Told that Bundee Aki doesn't play this weekend.

Excerpts from local media in Australia.

Rennie said World Rugby responded to Rugby Australia’s complaint over the officiating at the end of the game and said they “agreed with our concerns”.

Rennie said: “I didn’t write that letter, I’ve done what I normally do where I talk over a number of clips and share my views with the refs. So we’ve obviously been in contact with World Rugby around it, and they agreed with our concerns.

“We’ve decided to just take that on the chin and we’re going to move on, it’s seven days since we’ve played that game, we’re a couple of days away from a big game in Auckland, and that’s our focus now.”

Asked it if was better or worse that WR agreed with the Wallabies’ concerns, Rennie replied: “We’re just at a stage where we’re going to move on. We sought a bit of clarity, we got that. It’s not going to help us win on the weekend, so our focus has been on our preparation and making sure we can throw everything at it on Saturday.”

“There’s a lot of motivating points in there,” said Rennie about the upcoming game. “Rieko Ioane had a lot to say to our boys after the final try, mouthing off at Folau Fainga’a about disrespecting the haka, which is a bit odd.

“As New Zealanders would know, when a team does a haka you respond with a haka; we don’t have the luxury of responding with a haka. So our response was in the boomerang shape and to move forward, and by throwing down a challenge we’re accepting it. There’s a fair bit of banter that goes on on the field, and it just adds to the theatre I think.”

Ioane was evidently upset about Australia’s response to the haka before the match. The Aussies stood in a boomerang shape and advanced as the haka was underway. At the end, Wallabies captain James Slipper and fellow prop Allan Alaalatoa stared daggers at the All Blacks.

Rennie was adamant the Wallabies would do it again this Saturday.

“That’s our reply, it’s how we respond,” Rennie said. “I was just a bit surprised that he thinks it’s disrespectful. That there’s an expectation that we just stand there and they throw a challenge at us and we do nothing. Just take it.

“We think it’s a very respectful way of responding, and it’s unique to us because of the boomerang shape, so we won’t be stopping that.”

Rennie was in a feisty mood looking ahead at the clash at Eden Park, where Australia haven’t won in 22 visits stretching back to 1986.

I go confident on Edinburgh +11 ha @1.8 as well. Good squad they bring to South Africa, with the return of Watson. I think they can sneak something in Pretoria.

In Top14 for me best bet is Usap +4.5 @1.80. They rotated last week against SR so expect full
strength and well rested lineup. Toulon away from Mayol usually underperforms and they have few injury concerns.

I agree. I only punt rugby, and it annoys me that you can bet on some godforsaken soccer match in the middle of the Albanian Alps refereed by a Lama and shot with a Nokia 6.1 plus cellphone, but you can't bet on certain rugby games, which I can watch via streaming!

Vent over! Good luck on the weekend lads!

I like Hawkes Bay +3.5. BOP has a midweek game next week, and Hawkes losing the Shield should see them come out firing! Even the HB over 12.5HT score looks tempting.

Zebre +17.5

Sharks under 37.5

Canterbury over 31.5
Cantabs have scored less than 32 in just 1 game this season, in terrible conditions, on a ground not fit for under 5's. Trend should continue here.

And the usap is celebrating its 120th anniversary this weekend.

Leaning over 50.5 in NZ as well, but still undecided if to just focus on NZ overs.

And the double info SA or total overs in Durban is starting to appeal as well, given the permutations on points differences/ bonus points.

How bad are Canterbury, pathetic

They seen this post!!

Flemenstar wrote: They seen this post!!

Dodgy Auckland try there, looked short ........

R3V3R3NT_ wrote: Canterbury over 31.5
Cantabs have scored less than 32 in just 1 game this season, in terrible conditions, on a ground not fit for under 5's. Trend should continue here.

Great call!

Brent Graham wrote: Stormers v Connacht betting preview

Over 47.5

great line this, thought would be low 50's.

My only concern is the ref, same guy who messed up Ulster vs Stormers match. Hoping he has a quiet one.

Against the grain here, but I’m going out on a limb and saying ABS win big. Could get burnt but I like the minus. Eden Park always brings out their best, even during previous slumps (although maybe this is more than just a slump). I like the loose trio combo, very aggressive and Eden Park will bring the best out of Papalii. Strong blues presence starting and on the bench. Again contrary to opinion, I really like
Jordie at 12. Physical and will dominate the midfield, much better pairing with Rieko and will better compensate for his shortfalls at 13.

I head the argument of wallabies having their tails up, but am on the other side of the fence - I reckon rhey’ve run out of petrol tickets this tournament. My instincts refuse to believe they’re good enough to run ABS close back to back.

Against the grain here, but I’m going out on a limb and saying ABS win big. Could get burnt but I like the minus. Eden Park always brings out their best, even during previous slumps (although maybe this is more than just a slump). I like the loose trio combo, very aggressive and Eden Park will bring the best out of Papalii. Strong blues presence starting and on the bench. Again contrary to opinion, I really like
Jordie at 12. Physical and will dominate the midfield, much better pairing with Rieko and will better compensate for his shortfalls at 13.

I hear the argument of wallabies having their tails up, but am on the other side of the fence - I reckon they've run out of petrol tickets this tournament. My instincts refuse to believe they’re good enough to run ABS close back to back.

NZ v Aus, settled on below -

NZ over 28.5
Aus over 11.5
Total over 43.5

@ 8/10

Bath v Wasps - over 53.5 @ 9/10

Zebre v Sharks over 56.5 @ 17/20

southpaw wrote: Bath v Wasps - over 53.5 @ 9/10

Can no longer watch game live and had a nice result Sharks game so closing out interest on the bath wasps overs by taking under 55.5. Maybe a miracle middle!

BOP V Hawksbay Under 59.5
Been waiting to see if this line would creep up to 60. Two of the stronger defensive sides in the comp with the outcome likely deciding 3/4th position. Just seems like it will be a tighter game. Nothing crazy overs still king in this comp.

Looking a bit dark and grey in Auckland might be some showers before kick off. Still just threatening at the moment.

Looking a bit dark and grey in Auckland might be some showers before kick off. Still just threatening at the moment.

Added small interest Taukeaiho last try 12/1

I'm not usually an unders bloke but I'm on under 56 NZ v Aus.

Stormers Connacht over 46.5
Bulls Edinburgh over 53.5

Double @ 21/10

Also taken stormers -10 to cancel out Connacht +13.5, prefer to focus on overs.

shark prince wrote: Against the grain here, but I’m going out on a limb and saying ABS win big. Could get burnt but I like the minus. Eden Park always brings out their best, even during previous slumps (although maybe this is more than just a slump). I like the loose trio combo, very aggressive and Eden Park will bring the best out of Papalii. Strong blues presence starting and on the bench. Again contrary to opinion, I really like
Jordie at 12. Physical and will dominate the midfield, much better pairing with Rieko and will better compensate for his shortfalls at 13.

I head the argument of wallabies having their tails up, but am on the other side of the fence - I reckon rhey’ve run out of petrol tickets this tournament. My instincts refuse to believe they’re good enough to run ABS close back to back.

Good call man - the Darkness look dammed good today.

Boks over 35.5 @ 10/11

Going to Bristol v London Irish, good conditions - fine with a gentle breeze, hope the points flow
Total ponts over 53.5 @ 1.83