NPC, Gallagher Premiership, URC, Toyota Challenge + other rugby 7 Oct - 9 Oct

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1 year 7 months ago #1 by BDub
Getting a slight jump on Brent and opening the rugby thread for the new week as the NPC caps are out for the quarter finals:

North harbour +2.5 v Auckland
Wellington -6.5 v Hawkes bay
Canterbury-16.5 v Northland
Waikato -4.5 v BOP

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1 year 7 months ago #2 by Brent Graham
Thanks Conductor and well done on some great plays this past weekend

I hit the Newsletter Best Bet (over 47.5 Stormers game) and it was another after the hooter winner. I had a very good Friday but gave alot back on backing Leicester +14.5 at HT against Sarries. I sat tight and waited for the Newsletter ACCA and my early treble on the big handicap differences to come home with the Sharks -6.5 but sadly they delivered a typical Sharks performance and were lucky to win.

Another massive weekend of rugby fixtures ahead including Gallagher, NPC and Toyota Champs

Here though are my handicap forecasts for the URC matches - not confident at capping these yet

Connacht -3.5 Munster
Edinburgh -7.5 v Lions
Zebre +9.5 v Stormers
Leinster -13.5 v Sharks
Scarlets -4.5 v Cardiff
Ulster -15.5 v Ospreys
Glasgow -1.5 v Bulls
Bennetton -12.5 v Dragons

Here is the link to subscribe to the free weekly Goodforthegame betting mailer bit.ly/bettingmail


Enjoy the week and look forward to your views

BG

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1 year 7 months ago #3 by BDub
Lines out for URC:

Connacht +5.5 v Munster
Edinburgh-5.5 v lions
Zebre +14.5 v stormers
Leinster -15.5 v sharks
Scarlets -4.5 v Cardiff
Ulster -13.5 v ospreys
Glasgow +0.5 v Bulls
Benetton -11.5 v dragons

Will be lining up a big strike on Edinburgh -5.5. Lions have played two poor Welsh teams whereas Edinburgh played the URC champs and runners up two weeks in a row. Think Lions will be happy with their tour and have one foot on the plane.

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1 year 7 months ago #4 by hanrick

BDub wrote: Lines out for URC:

Connacht +5.5 v Munster
Edinburgh-5.5 v lions
Zebre +14.5 v stormers
Leinster -15.5 v sharks
Scarlets -4.5 v Cardiff
Ulster -13.5 v ospreys
Glasgow +0.5 v Bulls
Benetton -11.5 v dragons

Will be lining up a big strike on Edinburgh -5.5. Lions have played two poor Welsh teams whereas Edinburgh played the URC champs and runners up two weeks in a row. Think Lions will be happy with their tour and have one foot on the plane.


Agree on Edinburgh.

Like Connacht to beat Munster a lot. Won't bother with the plus.

Let the battle begin www.twitter.com/hanrickswart
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1 year 7 months ago #5 by BDub
Gallagher premiership:

Bristol -1.5 v Exeter
Leicester -7.5 v Sale
Bath +3.5 v Gloucester
Wasps v Northampton (choice)
Newcastle +7.5 v Saracens

On early views the Gloucester minus looks appealing. Bath in all sorts of trouble at the moment and can see that Glaws pack dominating.

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1 year 7 months ago #6 by Brad Breath
Also like the Glos minus too

Dragons coach stated he'll be resting players for the Benetton game, plus they have injuries at flyhalf, so think cap might be few points too light
Benetton -11 @ 1.91
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1 year 7 months ago #7 by Brent Graham
A quick comparison of the opening lines (in brackets) with my caps

Connacht -3.5 (+5.5) Munster
Edinburgh -7.5 (-5.5) v Lions
Zebre +9.5 (+14.5) v Stormers
Leinster -13.5 (-15.5) v Sharks
Scarlets -4.5 (-4.5) v Cardiff
Ulster -15.5 (-13.5) v Ospreys
Glasgow -1.5 (+0.5) v Bulls
Bennetton -12.5 (-11.5) v Dragons

All within a couple of points but big difference Connacht 8 points and Zebre 5 points

Taken a double a 22/10 at WSB Connacht +6.5 Zebre +14.5

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1 year 6 months ago #8 by Brent Graham
I see WSB out with their Toyota Champs caps

Pumas +18.5 v Emerging Ireland

Griquas +14.5 v Bulls

I have not been able to find where these games are being played

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1 year 6 months ago #9 by Couch Critic
Bloem Brent

Twitter: @HDiemont
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1 year 6 months ago #10 by Flemenstar
Any opinions on the Pumas Ireland game? Very young Irish side

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1 year 6 months ago #11 by Brent Graham
I didn't realize it was today - where do you find the teams?

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1 year 6 months ago #12 by Flemenstar
Irish team on Irish Rugby Twitter not sure on Pumas. Boylesports have it priced. 58.5 the line

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1 year 6 months ago #13 by Flemenstar
15. Chay Mullins (Connacht/IQ Rugby)
14. Ethan McIlroy (Ulster/Ballynahinch)
13. Antoine Frisch (Munster)
12. Cathal Forde (Connacht/Corinthians)
11. Andrew Smith (Leinster/Clontarf)
10. Jake Flannery (Ulster/Ballynahinch)
9. Michael McDonald (Ulster)

1. Callum Reid (Ulster/Banbridge)
2. Diarmuid Barron (Munster/Garryowen)
3. Roman Salonoa (Munster/Shannon)
4. Cormac Izuchukwu (Ulster/Ballynahinch)
5. Brian Deeny (Leinster/Clontarf)
6. Cian Prendergast (Connacht)(captain)
7. John Hodnett (Munster/UCC)
8. James Culhane (Leinster/UCD)

15 Devon Williams, 14 Jade Stiglingh, 13 Sebastiaan de Klerk, 12 Wiaan van Niekerk, 11 Etienne Taljaard, 10 Tinus de Beer (captain), 9 Chriswill September, 8 André Fouché, 7 Kwanda Dimaza, 6 Jaco Labuschagné, 5 Shane Kirkwood, 4 Malembe Mpofu, 3 Ig Prinsloo, 2 Eduan Swart, 1 Corné Fourie.
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1 year 6 months ago #14 by BDub
Griquas win at 9/10 v Bulls in Toyota Challange

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1 year 6 months ago #15 by Jameson
Northampton v Saracens rearranged fixture tonight - points line is around 60. There have been a lot of points scored by these teams in recent weeks above or close to 60. Looks like a 2nd string Saracens XV hence the +10.

No real feel but just to maintain an interest I'm going small on unders ....

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1 year 6 months ago #16 by Jameson

Jameson wrote: Northampton v Saracens rearranged fixture tonight - points line is around 60. There have been a lot of points scored by these teams in recent weeks above or close to 60. Looks like a 2nd string Saracens XV hence the +10.

No real feel but just to maintain an interest I'm going small on unders ....


Good job its a small one - 36 points in 30 mins! :-)

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1 year 6 months ago #17 by Brad Breath
Be interested to hear the thoughts on The Handicap tonight, but I'm pretty keen on North Harbour to beat Auckland tomorrow....

Auckland have a couple of returning ABs (though no Rayasi or Heem), but Harbour have a more settled side with more established combinations - in particular the halves.
Form back 3 in the comp and have for me played the better rugby over the season, covering the spread in 9 of their 10 games.
Reckon Harbour win, but taking the plus as insurance at B365
Harbour +3.5 @ 1.89
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1 year 6 months ago #18 by Brent Graham
The Handicap is live at 21h00 tonight and looking forward to The Conductors views on the URC and NPC and Oracles views on the URC

Click here to watch on You Tube


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1 year 6 months ago #19 by Profitable_Hedgehog
Pick: Connacht vs Munster -2.5 (Rugby Union - URC) at 1.72

Reasoning:

A local derby two misfiring Irish sides promises could be the perfect tonic for one of these sides to kickstart their season. The hosts Connacht have lost their first 3 games by a margin of 14+ on each occasion and are returning from their South African tour with their tail between their legs. Munster on the other hand has lost 2 out of their opening 3 games and haven't been particularly good so far this season. Until the team sheets appeared I was struggling to separate these two sides but now that the teams have been released, I am pretty happy to take Munster on an alt handicap. The return of 3 Ireland internationals; Coombes, Carbery and Murray to the Munster lineup will add much needed experience to overcome their hosts who have been woeful so far this season.

Also taking a small punt on Munster 1-12. at 2.40

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1 year 6 months ago #20 by shark prince
Tough QF today in the mitre 10, should be a very good final. Agree with the conductor on overs being the play if going on totals. I'll fall back on the strategy of packs winning finals not backs. Very dominant forwards named, should be excellent at set pieces and dominate breakdowns. ABs coming in can sometimes destabilise rhythm but the boys coming back have been around the Auckland set up their whole lives.

Auckland on the minus.

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1 year 6 months ago #21 by sunnyskies

Brad Breath wrote: Be interested to hear the thoughts on The Handicap tonight, but I'm pretty keen on North Harbour to beat Auckland tomorrow....

Auckland have a couple of returning ABs (though no Rayasi or Heem), but Harbour have a more settled side with more established combinations - in particular the halves.
Form back 3 in the comp and have for me played the better rugby over the season, covering the spread in 9 of their 10 games.
Reckon Harbour win, but taking the plus as insurance at B365
Harbour +3.5 @ 1.89


I agree with you on this too. Nth Harbour thrashed Southland last week Invercargill. Auckland have looked scratchy all season.
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1 year 6 months ago #22 by Couch Critic

Brent Graham wrote: The Handicap is live at 21h00 tonight and looking forward to The Conductors views on the URC and NPC and Oracles views on the URC

Click here to watch on You Tube


I would love a 1 hour show dedicated to BW telling us what he REALLY thinks about water breaks...! :)

Twitter: @HDiemont
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1 year 6 months ago #23 by Chiefie

Couch Critic wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: The Handicap is live at 21h00 tonight and looking forward to The Conductors views on the URC and NPC and Oracles views on the URC

Click here to watch on You Tube


I would love a 1 hour show dedicated to BW telling us what he REALLY thinks about water breaks...! :)


3-3 after 23mins. Over 52.5 dead as a duck.

Honestly, NPC has over 60 points every game. Come to the knock outs and nothing.

Impossible to bet on this

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1 year 6 months ago #24 by Chiefie

Chiefie wrote:

Couch Critic wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: The Handicap is live at 21h00 tonight and looking forward to The Conductors views on the URC and NPC and Oracles views on the URC

Click here to watch on You Tube


I would love a 1 hour show dedicated to BW telling us what he REALLY thinks about water breaks...! :)


3-3 after 23mins. Over 52.5 dead as a duck.

Honestly, NPC has over 60 points every game. Come to the knock outs and nothing.

Impossible to bet on this


And now penalty on the try line for not releasing, basic rule of the game, then back in 22m and penalty for going off your feet.

I hate the NPC. Hate it. As much as I hate reset scrums and water breaks

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1 year 6 months ago #25 by Jameson

Chiefie wrote:

Couch Critic wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: The Handicap is live at 21h00 tonight and looking forward to The Conductors views on the URC and NPC and Oracles views on the URC

Click here to watch on You Tube


I would love a 1 hour show dedicated to BW telling us what he REALLY thinks about water breaks...! :)


3-3 after 23mins. Over 52.5 dead as a duck.

Honestly, NPC has over 60 points every game. Come to the knock outs and nothing.

Impossible to bet on this


I went over 42.5 in live play and thought that was a good bet ............

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1 year 6 months ago #26 by Chiefie

Jameson wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

Couch Critic wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: The Handicap is live at 21h00 tonight and looking forward to The Conductors views on the URC and NPC and Oracles views on the URC

Click here to watch on You Tube


I would love a 1 hour show dedicated to BW telling us what he REALLY thinks about water breaks...! :)


3-3 after 23mins. Over 52.5 dead as a duck.

Honestly, NPC has over 60 points every game. Come to the knock outs and nothing.

Impossible to bet on this


I went over 42.5 in live play and thought that was a good bet ............


Then you would have loved AJ lam not knowing what a 2-1 situation is and butchering a clear try. Come on. Like come on.

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1 year 6 months ago #27 by Jameson

Chiefie wrote:

Jameson wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

Couch Critic wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: The Handicap is live at 21h00 tonight and looking forward to The Conductors views on the URC and NPC and Oracles views on the URC

Click here to watch on You Tube


I would love a 1 hour show dedicated to BW telling us what he REALLY thinks about water breaks...! :)


3-3 after 23mins. Over 52.5 dead as a duck.

Honestly, NPC has over 60 points every game. Come to the knock outs and nothing.

Impossible to bet on this


I went over 42.5 in live play and thought that was a good bet ............


Then you would have loved AJ lam not knowing what a 2-1 situation is and butchering a clear try. Come on. Like come on.


7 points missed with the boot so far too? Grim......

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1 year 6 months ago #28 by Chiefie

Chiefie wrote:

Jameson wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

Couch Critic wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: The Handicap is live at 21h00 tonight and looking forward to The Conductors views on the URC and NPC and Oracles views on the URC

Click here to watch on You Tube


I would love a 1 hour show dedicated to BW telling us what he REALLY thinks about water breaks...! :)


3-3 after 23mins. Over 52.5 dead as a duck.

Honestly, NPC has over 60 points every game. Come to the knock outs and nothing.

Impossible to bet on this


I went over 42.5 in live play and thought that was a good bet ............


Then you would have loved AJ lam not knowing what a 2-1 situation is and butchering a clear try. Come on. Like come on.


Gatland off at HT. no goal kicker. NH have now hit the post 3 times and missed 9 points. Such shit.

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1 year 6 months ago #29 by Chiefie

Jameson wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

Couch Critic wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: The Handicap is live at 21h00 tonight and looking forward to The Conductors views on the URC and NPC and Oracles views on the URC

Click here to watch on You Tube


I would love a 1 hour show dedicated to BW telling us what he REALLY thinks about water breaks...! :)


3-3 after 23mins. Over 52.5 dead as a duck.

Honestly, NPC has over 60 points every game. Come to the knock outs and nothing.

Impossible to bet on this


I went over 42.5 in live play and thought that was a good bet ............


Impossible to win with Paul Williams blowing every 10 seconds. Shit game. Shit referee.

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1 year 6 months ago #30 by Brent Graham

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1 year 6 months ago #31 by Chiefie

Chiefie wrote:

Jameson wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

Couch Critic wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: The Handicap is live at 21h00 tonight and looking forward to The Conductors views on the URC and NPC and Oracles views on the URC

Click here to watch on You Tube


I would love a 1 hour show dedicated to BW telling us what he REALLY thinks about water breaks...! :)


3-3 after 23mins. Over 52.5 dead as a duck.

Honestly, NPC has over 60 points every game. Come to the knock outs and nothing.

Impossible to bet on this


I went over 42.5 in live play and thought that was a good bet ............


Impossible to win with Paul Williams blowing every 10 seconds. Shit game. Shit referee.


Cheers Paul Williams. Had £100 on a draw at 17-1.

Nice one.

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1 year 6 months ago #32 by Chiefie

Brent Graham wrote: Edinburgh v Lions Betting Preview

Over 51.5 at 5/6


Only concern Brent is that it’s the bald Italian ref who did the bulls game last week. The game took 3 hours and looked for issues after every try to not award. Also blew 50 penalties.

So worried about that total.

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1 year 6 months ago #33 by Jameson

Chiefie wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

Jameson wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

Couch Critic wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: The Handicap is live at 21h00 tonight and looking forward to The Conductors views on the URC and NPC and Oracles views on the URC

Click here to watch on You Tube


I would love a 1 hour show dedicated to BW telling us what he REALLY thinks about water breaks...! :)


3-3 after 23mins. Over 52.5 dead as a duck.

Honestly, NPC has over 60 points every game. Come to the knock outs and nothing.

Impossible to bet on this


I went over 42.5 in live play and thought that was a good bet ............


Impossible to win with Paul Williams blowing every 10 seconds. Shit game. Shit referee.


Cheers Paul Williams. Had £100 on a draw at 17-1.

Nice one.


I was looking forward to the party invite too :-)

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1 year 6 months ago #34 by Jameson

Chiefie wrote:

Brent Graham wrote: Edinburgh v Lions Betting Preview

Over 51.5 at 5/6


Only concern Brent is that it’s the bald Italian ref who did the bulls game last week. The game took 3 hours and looked for issues after every try to not award. Also blew 50 penalties.

So worried about that total.


Weather forecast for the jock capital is rain showers all day but drying up for the game.

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1 year 6 months ago #35 by Brent Graham
Yeah overs not a confident pick in Edi and actually battling for inspiration in all of the SA games

Zebre v Stormers Betting Preview

Zebre over 20.5 (can you imagine typing that a year ago)

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1 year 6 months ago #36 by Brent Graham
Leinster v Sharks Betting Preview

I am going for Sharks overs - a sucker for punishment

Glasgow v Bulls

A rare 1-12 play (Bulls)

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1 year 6 months ago #37 by southpaw
Bristol v Exeter over 49.5
Edi v Lions over 49.5

double @ 18/10

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1 year 6 months ago #38 by Mondo86
Cheeky Friday Double -

EDIvsLIO - Over 52.5 and Edinburgh win
EXEvsBRI - Over 52.5 and Exeter win

6.93 to 1 -
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1 year 6 months ago #39 by Chiefie

Mondo86 wrote: Cheeky Friday Double -

EDIvsLIO - Over 52.5 and Edinburgh win
EXEvsBRI - Over 52.5 and Exeter win

6.93 to 1 -


Guys just be careful of those points totals.

Bristol got owned by Newcastle last week and didn’t score many, and that Italian bastard is reffing the lions game which = shitty stop/start game.

Wishing you luck!

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1 year 6 months ago #40 by Mondo86
You’re probably right - I did smell a hint of Hail Mary when I placed the bet but I’ve got a sneaky feeling!

As a hedge, a left-field bet that I think is solid -

RSAvsFRA RWC - 2ndH highest scoring half
This is the biggest stage that that these ladies have
EVER played on and I think the nerves will be a bit testy and things will be slow out of the blocks for France.

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1 year 6 months ago #41 by kompos

Chiefie wrote: that Italian bastard is reffing the lions game which = shitty stop/start game.

Wishing you luck!

are you serious? - there is no transgression of any rule or law AND he just blows the whistle?

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1 year 6 months ago #42 by Chiefie

kompos wrote:

Chiefie wrote: that Italian bastard is reffing the lions game which = shitty stop/start game.

Wishing you luck!

are you serious? - there is no transgression of any rule or law AND he just blows the whistle?


Exactly! You got it.

Think he’s paid per blow.

Ahem

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1 year 6 months ago #43 by Mondo86

Mondo86 wrote: Cheeky Friday Double -

EDIvsLIO - Over 52.5 and Edinburgh win
EXEvsBRI - Over 52.5 and Exeter win

6.93 to 1 -


Lol. More blown whistle than a 90’s rave song.

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1 year 6 months ago #44 by kompos

Chiefie wrote:

kompos wrote:

Chiefie wrote: that Italian bastard is reffing the lions game which = shitty stop/start game.

Wishing you luck!

are you serious? - there is no transgression of any rule or law AND he just blows the whistle?


Exactly! You got it.

Think he’s paid per blow.

Ahem


BBB

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1 year 6 months ago #45 by Chiefie

kompos wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

kompos wrote:

Chiefie wrote: that Italian bastard is reffing the lions game which = shitty stop/start game.

Wishing you luck!

are you serious? - there is no transgression of any rule or law AND he just blows the whistle?


Exactly! You got it.

Think he’s paid per blow.

Ahem


BBB


Bored beyond belief?

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1 year 6 months ago #46 by R3V3R3NT_
Wellington over 30.5
I don't think you see the same nervous play like you saw with North Harbour. More experienced and rested players expecting a tough 30mins with Wellington to kick on after that.

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1 year 6 months ago #47 by Brent Graham
France over 7.5 tries at 4/6

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1 year 6 months ago #48 by kompos

Chiefie wrote:

kompos wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

kompos wrote:

Chiefie wrote: that Italian bastard is reffing the lions game which = shitty stop/start game.

Wishing you luck!



Bored beyond belief?


Bullshit Baffles Brains

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1 year 6 months ago #49 by Chiefie

kompos wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

kompos wrote:

Chiefie wrote:

kompos wrote:

Chiefie wrote: that Italian bastard is reffing the lions game which = shitty stop/start game.

Wishing you luck!



Bored beyond belief?


Bullshit Baffles Brains


Well who and what is that aimed at?

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1 year 6 months ago #50 by R3V3R3NT_
Going to get my feet we with Fiji +56.5 figure they can get a couple of scores. Weather doesn't look great says no rain but does look like threatening some light showers.
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