Currie Cup, URC, Gallagher, Super Rugby 24-26 March 2023

My Premiership Handicap Predictions
i) England players should be available - although some may be rested if not an important game etc, however with 4 rounds to go, I dont think teams will hold back.
ii) * = FAV

(Fri)
NEW v GLO* -1
(Sat)
LEI* v BRI -5
SAR* v HAR -6
LIR* v NOR -3
(Sun)
BAT v EXE* -3

My fanices this week are the Leicester minus (snapping up anything under 6 really, the bookies will give Bristol a fair line considering their form). Also Exeter minus (Bath just crap and disjointed with lots of injuries), and see if Sarries go full noise at home (They have a fantastic home handicap of average -12, Dombrandt looks off the pace)

Enjoy,

WJS

My Super Rugby Handicaps

Crusaders -14.5 v Brumbies
Waratahs +22.5 v Chiefs (no McKenzie)
Highlanders -2.5 v Drua
Moana +21.5 v Hurricanes
Rebels +7.5 v Reds (No Hodge)
Blues -17.5 v Force (Forced Rest week for AB's)

R3V3R3NT_ wrote: My Super Rugby Handicaps

Crusaders -14.5 (-11.5) v Brumbies
Waratahs +22.5 (+15.5) v Chiefs (no McKenzie)
Highlanders -2.5 (-8.5) v Drua
Moana +21.5 (+20.5) v Hurricanes
Rebels +7.5 (+7.5) v Reds (No Hodge)
Blues -17.5 (-25.5) v Force (Forced Rest week for AB's)

Early strike Chiefs -15.5

Ian Foster has said "Rest orders will only apply for senior All Blacks, rather than those on the fringes looking to press their case for regular honours."

Below is a list of All Blacks who are due a one week break, however, depending on which players are deemed to be senior All Blacks, I have marked those potentially being rested in bold and they others that may miss this week too:

Blues: Dalton Papalii, Hoskins Sotutu, Finlay Christie, Beauden Barrett, Caleb Clarke, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck, Rieko Ioane, Mark Telea, Stephen Perofeta

Crusaders: Joe Moody, Scott Barrett, Sevu Reece

Chiefs: Samisoni Taukei'aho, Luke Jacobson, Damian McKenzie

Highlanders: Nil

Hurricanes: Dane Coles, Tyrel Lomax, Jordie Barrett

With that being said, I do fancy:

1. Crusaders -10.5 vs Brumbies (Crusaders at home, not totally convinced by the Brumbies, especially away in NZ)
2. Chiefs -15.5 (Edmed, Gamble, Gleeson most likely unavailable for Waratahs)

Hey guys -

So.... I made a thing.

I have compiled a table of all the "top-level" rugby referees and I have gone through the fixtures for the Premiership, URC, Heineken cup, Currie Cup, Top 14, Super Rugby and top-tier test matches over the past season and, in some cases, the 2022 season also.

I allocated 1 point for a 50+ match and an additional point for a 65+ match. I have also noted where there has been a blowout and a team has won by 20+ points (I think a valuable bit of info as there are definitely some refs that like to try and even things out and keep the underdog in the game). One 'mistake' that I made was not factoring in the amount of games that a ref has had during the period but for the top refs I would go on 20 - 25ish total matches per year.

Points betting and overs/ unders (Don't we all hate betting unders?) has seen most of my money this year and I think there are definitely trends that emerge when you look at the refs - hopefully this can help us all make some money. With the WC coming up, more obscure refs are going to see plenty of game time so we can hopefully find some $ spots!

I will keep this up to date as regularly as possible and good luck buggers

Here is the link to the google doc -

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CrjZHvvRFLscglxrL9IG7hMkCgwarL9QbrIZ4N9pqzY/edit?usp=sharing

WSB out with URC

Zebre v Cardiff +10.5
Leinster v Stormers -15.5
Ospreys v Dragons -9.5
Benneton v Lions -3.5
Connacht v Edinburgh -6.5
Scarlets v Sharks +3.5
Munster v Glasgow -10.5
Ulster v Bulls -9.5

I’ve had a go at Stormers, Sharks & Bulls. Stormers sending all their Boks, Sharks & Bulls getting into must win territory and will field Boks too. 6Nations guys might not all return this week.

Currie Cup also out

Lions v Griffons -16.5
Cheetahs v Bulls -10.5
Pumas v Griquas -11.5
Sharks v WP +7.5

Taken a big bite of the Cheetahs. Bulls will be much changed with the URC team away.

Lions could be quality as well but need to see who they are sending to Italy first.

Pierrebal wrote: WSB out with URC

Zebre v Cardiff +10.5
Leinster v Stormers -15.5
Ospreys v Dragons -9.5
Benneton v Lions -3.5
Connacht v Edinburgh -6.5
Scarlets v Sharks +3.5
Munster v Glasgow -10.5
Ulster v Bulls -9.5

I’ve had a go at Stormers, Sharks & Bulls. Stormers sending all their Boks, Sharks & Bulls getting into must win territory and will field Boks too. 6Nations guys might not all return this week.

Agree on Stormers +15.5, for me the best bet of the weekend if Boks are back. Irish dual contract internationals may rest this weekend.

Fired the Sharks -2.5 @ 8/10. Sending best available side.

Mondo86 wrote: in some cases, the 2022 season also.

I allocated 1 point for a 50+ match and an additional point for a 65+ match. I have also noted where there has been a blowout and a team has won by 20+ points (I think a valuable bit of info as there are definitely some refs that like to try and even things out and keep the underdog in the game). One 'mistake' that I made was not factoring in the amount of games that a ref has had during the period but for the top refs I would go on 20 - 25ish total matches per year.

I will keep this up to date as regularly as possible and good luck buggers

Hey Mondo,
Thanks for sharing, must have been hard work. It comes timeously for me because I've had it with betting on HC's and looking for early value - I just lose.
So I've been struggling to understand the points mkt, and your chart looks like manna from heaven to me.
Problem is that I can't see how to get value from it without knowing how many matches it's based on. EG if a ref has had 5 overs games out of 6, or out of 25, or from 30: that makes a pretty big difference.

What's the chances that you can include size of the sample on the next iteration ?

Sorry if I sound like an ingrate, but I really am struggling.
Keep up the good work tho bud, it's much appreciated

wow thanks so much for the ref sheet!! Amazing

The Bulls have posted their touring squad for the next two weeks. 28 players, all the first / second choice so they will be down to 3rd choice for the next two weeks.

Cheetahs only fly out next week for Toulon game so I have loaded up on Cheetahs from -10.5 @9/10 to -16.5 @ 85/40.

Pierrebal wrote: The Bulls have posted their touring squad for the next two weeks. 28 players, all the first / second choice so they will be down to 3rd choice for the next two weeks.

Cheetahs only fly out next week for Toulon game so I have loaded up on Cheetahs from -10.5 @9/10 to -16.5 @ 85/40.

Fired Cheetahs -10.5 @1.90 as well after Bulls group release. Should be a comfortably home win

Tailing you lads on the Cheetahs -10

Bit of line movement in Crusaders v Brumbies and I think it's gone too far, especially with Reece & Whitelock confirmed out

Brumbies covered this line in 4 of last 5 meetings

Brumbies +14.5 @ 1.83

Agreed, Trying to lock in +14.5 but might have to settle with +13.5

Brumbies have rested James Slipper, Rob Valetini, Pete Samu, Nic White and Tom Wright. Len Ikitau and Darcy Swain also ruled out through injury.

Brumbies (1-15): Blake Schoupp, Connal McInerney, Sefo Kautai, Jack Wright, Cadeyrn Neville, Rory Scott, Luke Reimer, Charlie Cale, Ryan Lonergan, Noah Lolesio, Corey Toole, Tamati Tua, Ollie Sapsford, Ben O’Donnell, Andy Muirhead.

Replacements: Lachlan Lonergan, Fred Kaihea, Allan Alaalatoa, Nick Frost, Jahrome Brown, Pedro Rolando, Jack Debreczeni, Declan Meredith.

Crusaders (1-15): Joe Moody, Codie Taylor, Tamaiti Williams, Scott Barrett, Zach Gallagher, Ethan Blackadder, Tom Christie, Sione Havili Talitui, Mitchell Drummond, Richie Mo’unga, Leicester Fainga’anuku, Dallas McLeod, Braydon Ennor, Pepesana Patafilo, Fergus Burke.

Replacements: Brodie McAlister, Kershawl Sykes-Martin, George Bower, Dominic Gardiner, Christian Lio-Willie, Willi Heinz, Will Gaulter, Chay Fihaki.

Crusaders pack will dominate and backline should take care of the Brumbies relative inexperience.

Chiefs have also named a strong team with D.Mac playing fullback:

Chiefs (1-15): Aidan Ross, Bradley Slater, John Ryan, Brodie Retallick, Manaaki Selby-Rickit, Samipeni Finau, Sam Cane,
Pita Gus Sowakula, Brad Weber, Bryn Gatland, Etene Nanai-Seturo, Rameka Poihipi, Alex Nankivell, Emoni Narawa, Damian McKenzie (99)

Replacements: Samisoni Taukei’aho, Ollie Norris, George Dyer, Naitoa Ah Kuoi, Kaylum Boshier, Cortez Ratima, Daniel Rona, Shaun Stevenson.

I still like Crusaders and Chiefs line

R3V3R3NT_ wrote: Agreed, Trying to lock in +14.5 but might have to settle with +13.5

Scratch that glad I waited I see 17.5 now. Strong team named from the crusaders still injury hit in the midfield and Burke is a pretty mid fullback. 17.5 does it keep moving? Kinda madness.

*** Never mind I see all the players rested now.

Brumbies well coached but too much newness in their named side, don’t think the line lasts.

Crusaders -14 @ 10/11

Brad Breath wrote: Bit of line movement in Crusaders v Brumbies and I think it's gone too far, especially with Reece & Whitelock confirmed out

Brumbies covered this line in 4 of last 5 meetings

Brumbies +14.5 @ 1.83

Clearly the market knew/suspected Brums would rest players. Best chance of a win in years and they do this, FFS.
Can only prey now that Crusaders have an off night

I can understand the overexcitement with Crusaders but they don't field the best available.

Whitelock and Newell are big blows in the pack and Reece, Goodhue and Havili in the backs as well. Ennor far away of Goodhue at 13, Patafilo nice ITM player not Super Rugby and Burke at 15 doesn't convince me at all. I don't touch the handicap now but I think Crusaders o37.5 is a pretty nice bet.

Chiefs o35.5 or -15.5 better lines for me. But depends on weather in Sydney as some showers are expected.

Your wish is my command you filthy ingrate - Kidding!

This is my V2 of the sheet - I included the amount of games reffed across the Prem, URC and Super Rugby and I included the % of overs games (using 50 points as a benchmark)

docs.google.com/document/d/1CrjZHvvRFLsc...qzY/edit?usp=sharing

I will keep updating and tinkering with this as the season goes on - Might include home team vs away team winning percentages, etc.

Something worth noting I think, is that Super Rugby seems to have more blowouts than an Mpumalanga highway - 30% of matches since 2022 have ended with 1 team 20+ ahead.

Mondo86 wrote: Your wish is my command you filthy ingrate - Kidding!

Cheers mate, appreciate your effort

Drua over 24.5 has caught my eye early -

They have tasted kiwi blood and want more!

If I could type the Jaws theme, I would have!

Blues with a weakened team for Sunday. Force side not too bad. Have taken Blues under 39.5 points at 12/10 and Force +22.5 at 17/20

I've taken Chiefs -15.5 @1.925 2u instead of Chiefs o35.5 because heavy rain is expected before kick off and light during the match.

I think rain goes Chiefs way as Waratahs cannot match up front, specially with the absences of Bell, Holtz, Gamble and Gleeson. Vailanu important absences as well as he delivered last weekend.

I also take Stormers +11.5 ha @1.90 2u after team release. Strong lineup Stormers and expect Leinster to field a B team, even that will be strong but plus 10 points is too much for me.

Pablo wrote: I've taken Chiefs -15.5 @1.925 2u instead of Chiefs o35.5 because heavy rain is expected before kick off and light during the match.

I think rain goes Chiefs way as Waratahs cannot match up front, specially with the absences of Bell, Holtz, Gamble and Gleeson. Vailanu important absences as well as he delivered last weekend.

I take u54.5 @1.90 2u as well after last weather update. Heavy rain expected during the match as well.

Pablo wrote:

Pablo wrote: I've taken Chiefs -15.5 @1.925 2u instead of Chiefs o35.5 because heavy rain is expected before kick off and light during the match.

I think rain goes Chiefs way as Waratahs cannot match up front, specially with the absences of Bell, Holtz, Gamble and Gleeson. Vailanu important absences as well as he delivered last weekend.

I take u54.5 @1.90 2u as well after last weather update. Heavy rain expected during the match as well.

Predictions I have checked shows very little rain tomorrow for Sydney and almost no wind. Looks like perfect rugby conditions. From what I see the rain will only come during the early hours of Saturday morning.

I'm lining up Chiefs overs on this one, but will wait until tomorrow morning South African time before betting.

I've managed to nab Chiefs over 31.5 for 1.83 on Boyle

**Do keep an eye on the teams, strange week with internationals back, and Europe next week.**

Some detail going into the weekend, but I think every game is priced pretty fairly:

Fancies:
Leicester (-7.5) Pat Lam has confirmed there will be no Ellis Genge or Kyle Sinkler. I have a feeling Bristol will have one eye on Clermont the following week as their Premiership playoff hopes are rather flat. May be raining a little, this suits the Leicester pack. I would wait for teams as Leicester do have a 6 day turnaround for Edinburgh in the CC.

Can also chuck a little change on:
Northampton (+5.5) Again I would wait for teams to see how many England players are back for NH.

Bath (+5.5) Exeter injuries - Kirsten, Innard, Cowan Dickie, Hogg, Vermulen. They may also rest Slade, Nowell, and Simmonds for Europe, we'll see. Wait to see the Bath side but I think they can hold if all those players are missing (Maybe...)

Weather prediction looks good for Sydney so I've pulled the trigger on Chiefs over 32.5 points at 9/10 and over 52.5 total points at evens

hanrick wrote: Weather prediction looks good for Sydney so I've pulled the trigger on Chiefs over 32.5 points at 9/10 and over 52.5 total points at evens

I've checked weather now and looks fucking good in Sydney right now.

Line in bet365 at 50.5 @1.91 so I put 4u to compensate the 2u I put on the u54.5.

No brainer this line with the weather update.

Climbed aboard the over 50.5 too

Damn, missed the line. Up to 53.5 and 55.5 now

Saders minus gets weekend off to a cracker. Can't watch next game live so just 2 smaller plays -

1st try Hooper @ 25/1
last try Shaun Stevenson @ 12/1

What a joke of first half

Pablo wrote: What a joke of first half

I've gone over 43.5 in live play to try and recover .....

3 pts scored in over 30 mins of 'rugby' - doomed.

That game was awful