Currie Cup, URC, Gallagher, Super Rugby 24-26 March 2023

I cannot understand this kind of results. Expected value has gone through the sink.

Bad run of -30u drawdown since november (after an unexpected early peak of +70u) is too much, never happened to me in the last 7 betting seasons. Specially when my expected value is above +10% yield ...

Cheeky double for tonight -

ZEBvsCAR under 54.5 & LEINvsSTO over 43.5 @2.4

Mike Adamson and Sam Grove-White on the whistles, time to test my handiwork!

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19TloYh5f...s0U/edit?usp=sharing

cannot trust this Lions C side.

Griffons over 20.5 @ 10/11

southpaw wrote: cannot trust this Lions C side.

Griffons over 20.5 @ 10/11

You're going to need 7 penalties, South.

Dangerous bet from my side, but I just don't feel the points on this game. Under 61.5 total points in Johannesburg.

hanrick wrote:

southpaw wrote: cannot trust this Lions C side.

Griffons over 20.5 @ 10/11

You're going to need 7 penalties, South.

Dangerous bet from my side, but I just don't feel the points on this game. Under 61.5 total points in Johannesburg.

yes based on last week very true! It's not a confident bet or as big as my URC or Super Rugby punts, but have had a decent strike on the Saders -14 so it tends to put me in a more more risky mood than normal after a good win. That old punters trap!

hanrick wrote:

southpaw wrote: cannot trust this Lions C side.

Griffons over 20.5 @ 10/11

You're going to need 7 penalties, South.

Dangerous bet from my side, but I just don't feel the points on this game. Under 61.5 total points in Johannesburg.

30 points in 25mins.

This is a disasterclass.

Chiefie wrote:

hanrick wrote:

southpaw wrote: cannot trust this Lions C side.

Griffons over 20.5 @ 10/11

You're going to need 7 penalties, South.

Dangerous bet from my side, but I just don't feel the points on this game. Under 61.5 total points in Johannesburg.

30 points in 25mins.

This is a disasterclass.

Thoroughly enjoying the use of TMO. Tom Brady touchdown for the lions.

southpaw wrote: cannot trust this Lions C side.

Griffons over 20.5 @ 10/11

Nicely done, South!

hanrick wrote:

southpaw wrote: cannot trust this Lions C side.

Griffons over 20.5 @ 10/11

Nicely done, South!

Balls. Knew you cant go unders at ellis park on a friday afternoon.

26-26 after 60mins.

Crisis.

Chiefie wrote:

hanrick wrote:

southpaw wrote: cannot trust this Lions C side.

Griffons over 20.5 @ 10/11

Nicely done, South!

Balls. Knew you cant go unders at ellis park on a friday afternoon.

26-26 after 60mins.

Crisis.

Turned in to touch rugby here. Unders dead after 70min. Will get them next time hanrick!

Pablo wrote:

Pierrebal wrote: The Bulls have posted their touring squad for the next two weeks. 28 players, all the first / second choice so they will be down to 3rd choice for the next two weeks.

Cheetahs only fly out next week for Toulon game so I have loaded up on Cheetahs from -10.5 @9/10 to -16.5 @ 85/40.

Fired Cheetahs -10.5 @1.90 as well after Bulls group release. Should be a comfortably home win

Great early spot on this one lads! Happy to have tailed you both earlier in week on this, been a cracking day.

Cardiff -8, fill yewer boots. Alternatively, have them emptied lol

Mondo86 wrote: Cheeky double for tonight -

ZEBvsCAR under 54.5 & LEINvsSTO over 43.5 @2.4

Mike Adamson and Sam Grove-White on the whistles, time to test my handiwork!

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19TloYh5f...s0U/edit?usp=sharing

Zebre score in 3mins. Mondo - praying your moneyball works pal! Not a great start. Sheeesh

Trying to keep the run going today -

Leinster v Stormers, over 6.5 tries @ 8/10

Think shots at goal will be tricky in this wind, so skipping points, hoping teams opt to put it into corner a fair bit too.

This zebre maul defence is literally non existent.

Cardiff by 40 here.

Going at a point a minute here in zebre.

U54 dead. Bugger.

Off the wagon, Chiefie?

Laraxwell wrote: Off the wagon, Chiefie?

How’s this guy? Lol.

Jameson wrote: Cardiff -8, fill yewer boots. Alternatively, have them emptied lol

Emptied - what a farce lol

How’s this guy? Lol.

Just asking if you are back betting again
No malice in the question

Rebels v Reds
Need some dosh to plug the cycling hole. Caught the Rebels match against Canes and looked like they could run up a few points in a hurry.

Rebels over 26.5 @ 17/20

The over 6.5 tries in Dublin landed last night to cap my best Friday on record. It’s usually my bogey day with many Friday evening sulks in the past so it’s nice to get it right for a change!

Highlanders -8 also arrives this morning, I think Drua and Moana are struggling to keep up the performances each week but Drua will be better at home.

Onto today and looking to tail on some of the overs plays, but eyeing out Sharks overs but I can’t see any lines yet.

Brent Graham wrote: Under 58.5 Rebels game - hoping for an Aussie derby of old

Taken the same

Waste of time punting anything in super rugby. Some of the teams are unbelievably sh*t
Much better off sticking to Europe

Flemenstar wrote: Waste of time punting anything in super rugby. Some of the teams are unbelievably sh*t
Much better off sticking to Europe

How the hell do you explain what's going on in the Rebels Reds game?? Bonkers.

70+ points in an Aussie derby - absolutely nuts.

Yeah exactly. Both teams horrendous in defence

Brent Graham wrote: Benetton v Lions

Over 52.5

Hello Brent,

I'm surprised that no one is on the Lions, yet they field a solid team, they were very good the last game against the Bulls especially Nohamba. Treviso rests several internationals after the tournament. I think they can even just win it. Lions +8.5

Howdy lads , some fine calls so far and the boys in general seem to have enjoyed a good weekend so far . No bets from me so far as was under too much pressure elsewhere .

English Prem
Leicester v Bristol
Both sides much improved should be a competitive game , Matt Carley an overs ref . The odd brief shower may affect the play but overall good weather but going is heavy .
Small interest Bristol plus 7.5 at 4/5.

Quins v Sarries at Tottenham
Quins been so poor without their internationals but should go close here , plus 8.5 at 4/5 one of my better bets on the day .

Irish v Saints , irish playing with a lot of consistency these days against terrible travellers . I'm expecting improvement from Saints but overall I think the play is unders at 60.5 at 4/5 , will probably go close to this figure and squeaky bum time may occur but just seems too high in this important match for both sides .

Lions O 22.5pts v Benetton Treviso

Two incredibly sh*t teams here Lions and Benetton. And then listening to Frank Murphy. Painful painful stuff
I give up

Money all round on the Lions match, well done boys

Sitting on Sharks -2.5 so will resist getting any heavier involved on their points. Just adding -

Man of match - Mapimpi @ 16/1
Last try scorer Grant Williams @ 22/1 ( feels big for his scoring rate)

LIVEBET Munster +18.5 @1.83 2u

This will teach those Shark boys a lesson thinking they can come over to my Wales and win!

Gone 5/5 win on my main bets for weekend and then Sharks -2.5 was mentally banked given cap shift, but they’ve been dreadful.

Bulls over 19.5 @ 10/11

Munster on the board next week v Sharks
6/4
They'll be pissed after tonight performance

Bulls are impotent. Steer clear.

Laraxwell wrote: Munster on the board next week v Sharks
6/4
They'll be pissed after tonight performance

It might be a question of who is pissed off more. I think Sharks could not be any worse tonight. Heavy legs, lack of talking, no cohesion. I’m wondering if too much time conditioning for the Bok guys as they looked so off the pace.

southpaw wrote:

Laraxwell wrote: Munster on the board next week v Sharks
6/4
They'll be pissed after tonight performance

It might be a question of who is pissed off more. I think Sharks could not be any worse tonight. Heavy legs, lack of talking, no cohesion. I’m wondering if too much time conditioning for the Bok guys as they looked so off the pace.

Honestly just looked like the Sharks could not care less. Not interested in the game at all. I'll be all over Munster next weekend.

Expected a performance from the Bulls and they are delivering. They look very hungry

BULLS!! Look a different side with some real pace in the backline. Love it and points home and hosed. Sharks? What Sharks?!!

I don’t disagree Hanrick, it was a shocker from my side, so so poor. But like a lamb to the slaughter I already know I will back them for over 3.5 tries next week.

I think jake white must have had a serious talk to the bulls at half time