Super Rugby Rd 8, URC Wk 17, Currie Cup Wk 6 14-16 April

PREMIERSHIP HANDICAP PREDICTIONS

Happy to have some premiership action back this weekend. Lots of movement possible with just a few rounds to go, post Europe I'm expecting teams to go all out with selections.

FRI
Gloucester -4.5 vs Bath
- Bath are well rested, however Gloucester absolutley love a Friday night. Expecting a loud boozy crowd, I do not see Bath getting a result here. I won't be taking anything higher than Glos -5.5, we'll see what the bookies say but anything lower is worth a medium strike.

Bristol -3.5 vs Sale
- Bristol will be looking for redemption following their late loss to Clermont, Sale have been a little jaded in recent weeks, should the weather hold I can see some Bristol points here.

SAT
Harlequins -13.5 vs Newcastle
- Take anything on or under -13.5 realistically here, the lower the figure, the higher the value play. Quins should be opening this team up, who have lost their head coach in recent weeks.

Northampton -4.5 vs Saracens:
- Will be keeping a big eye on this one, NH could be fully stocked and rested. Whilst Saracens look to have taken knocks to Jamie George and Billy Vunipola. Saracens are also 11 points clear at the top of the table and Northampton are fighting for 4th, there could be some serious rotation this week for Saracens.

SUN
Leicester -5.5 vs Exeter
- No major thoughts here. Montoya hobbled off vs Leinster so expect him to be out of action this week, same can be said for Jack Nowell. Leicester will have had one more days rest, and surely you'd think the attrition will catch up to Exeter

Biggest strikes
- Northampton and Harlequins

Medium plays
- Gloucester

I'll provide an update once lines are out tomorrow.
Frustrating weekend with Stormers not getting off the plane and Sarries not being able to finish their dinner, but we go again. Europe always throws some funny surprises up

I like the following plays (I have a cash out option so bear this in mind, you may wait for teams also)

Best plays
- Harlequins -12
- Northampton +2 (+2.5 should be available shortly) - Just a case of seeing who is fit for Saracens/rotation

Middle feelers
- Leicester -5
- Bristol +1 (+1.5 should be available shortly)

Bristol and Northampton ML will also have value once they're available.

Good weather predicted for Wellington on Saturday and an afternoon kick off so I have fired Chiefs over 24.5 points at 5/6. Also taken some over 50.5 total points at evens. Please just don't let Damon Murphy be the ref. James Doleman would be nice.

Cheeky multi -

Moana over 27.5, ChiefsVSHurricanes over 43.5, Lions +12.5

@ 3.75

Moana playing first game in Samoa and finally seem to be gelling a bit - results will come and the Reds is a ripe opportunity although I think Moana may run out of puff in the last 15. ChiefsVSCanes will have more points than a cactus nursery. I think the Lions throw everything at this match - the result is huge for them and URC is their only trophy to play for now, whilst for Leinster it’s irrelevant. Add in altitude and the fact that its Leinsters B/C team, the Lions at home are surely in with a shout.

Have taken Brumbies -17.5 at 17/20.

Drua team much different to the last team they picked when they played the Rebels and Brumbies going in with their best team. Also think the way Damin Murphy officiates will suit the Brumbies more than the Drua.

hanrick wrote: Good weather predicted for Wellington on Saturday and an afternoon kick off so I have fired Chiefs over 24.5 points at 5/6. Also taken some over 50.5 total points at evens. Please just don't let Damon Murphy be the ref. James Doleman would be nice.

Hi Hanrick, if you don't mind me asking....Are those points lines locallly based and if so, please can you mention where lol.

Bookie Basher wrote:

hanrick wrote: Good weather predicted for Wellington on Saturday and an afternoon kick off so I have fired Chiefs over 24.5 points at 5/6. Also taken some over 50.5 total points at evens. Please just don't let Damon Murphy be the ref. James Doleman would be nice.

Hi Hanrick, if you don't mind me asking....Are those points lines locallly based and if so, please can you mention where lol.

They are available at Gbets, EbetSA, PlayTsogo, Betshezi and Pokerbets. All local bookmakers and looks like they all get the same betting feed.

hanrick wrote:

Bookie Basher wrote:

hanrick wrote: Good weather predicted for Wellington on Saturday and an afternoon kick off so I have fired Chiefs over 24.5 points at 5/6. Also taken some over 50.5 total points at evens. Please just don't let Damon Murphy be the ref. James Doleman would be nice.

Hi Hanrick, if you don't mind me asking....Are those points lines locallly based and if so, please can you mention where lol.

They are available at Gbets, EbetSA, PlayTsogo, Betshezi and Pokerbets. All local bookmakers and looks like they all get the same betting feed.

Thanks mate, much appreciated.

I have taken Moana +6.5 @1.91 2u and Lions dnb @2 2u

Moana can push the Reds Closer and I think they can even win against a Reds team with absences.
Leinster sent a C team and is the best chance for Lions to defeat the undefeated. I don't expect and easy win as Leinster C would win most of the teams in URC, at least at home.

And in the always interesting Pro D2 I go with Agen +6.5 @1.704 2u. Aurillac nothing to play for and come from a narrow win against Oyonnax C team. Agen in the fight for playoffs and its a must win if they want home QF.

All lines in pinnacle and orbit exchange, my main bookies.

Moana -1 HT @ 2.13

They come out absolutely firing here and would not be shocked to see them wrap up the bonus point and be 15 up at HT.

The Moana +3.5 HT that’s widely available is, IMHO, a Friday morning gelukkie

Have some money on:

Sale ML @1.8 (3u /5)

Gloucester v Bath under 54.5 @1.83 (1.5u /5)

Both tomorrow night

Over 59.5 in Moana game (2 units out of 5). I handicapped it at +12.5 without realising the game will be in Apia. Would back Reds on the cap if I had to choose, I think +2.5 is a few points short. Apia home ground not the same as a Fiji game, but I expect Moana to play with pride and run with the Reds for at least 70 minutes.

Pickerill isn't the overs murderer he used to be. Moana will throw it about and I see an open game. Hard to predict a scoreline, can feasibly see a 37-30 game going either way. Points is the value play.

Drua under 21.5 (2.5 units out of 5).

Brumbies should win this comfortably, but I don't like a big minus with Murphy on the whistle. Guaranteed anxiety for 80mins. Is a chance that Brumbies blow this out hence not going total unders. They have a very strong team and I see them pulling away late with Nic White off the bench. Brumbies win 35-15.

Moana absolutely nowhere on defence or set piece in that first half and Reds nowhere in the second.

A home game in Samoa is definitely not a home game in Fiji.

Terrible read.

Brumbies Over 5.5 tries
11/8 with Boylesports

Mondo86 wrote: Moana absolutely nowhere on defence or set piece in that first half and Reds nowhere in the second.

A home game in Samoa is definitely not a home game in Fiji.

Terrible read.

Likewise Mondo.
Absolute dodo me, half my weekend purse gone on the Samoans. They never had a chance.
I so wanted the Reds to lose. Affected my (already bad) judgement.
Arrgh, back to the drawing board for me..

Waratahs 1-21 and Chiefs +14.5 double at evens.

I don't like the Waratahs cap or points, they'll win this but Force will keep it close. They impressed me in the last few games being gutsy. Tahs have also shown fight but only against better opposition. They can do honourable losses but I don't see them putting away a team. Force go down in an honourable loss tomorrow. Expect a 33-25 scoreline, a late score either team will likely decide the handicap at current levels. Will trigger on a Force plus if it sneaks out to +14.5.

Waiting for Chiefs points to open with my bookies, I like the overs Chiefs mentioned on the show. Think the Chiefs win this so may jump on ML later as well. Lightning matchups on the pitch. Expect a cracking game, points look low. Expect 35-30 win for the Chiefs.

Great show as always everyone.

Brumbies v Drua

Damon Murphy on the whistle. His last 8 games have gone under.

Max play on under 63.5 points.

shark prince wrote: Waratahs 1-21 and Chiefs +14.5 double at evens.

I don't like the Waratahs cap or points, they'll win this but Force will keep it close. They impressed me in the last few games being gutsy. Tahs have also shown fight but only against better opposition. They can do honourable losses but I don't see them putting away a team. Force go down in an honourable loss tomorrow. Expect a 33-25 scoreline, a late score either team will likely decide the handicap at current levels. Will trigger on a Force plus if it sneaks out to +14.5.

Waiting for Chiefs points to open with my bookies, I like the overs Chiefs mentioned on the show. Think the Chiefs win this so may jump on ML later as well. Lightning matchups on the pitch. Expect a cracking game, points look low. Expect 35-30 win for the Chiefs.

Great show as always everyone.

Out of interest, where does one find the 1-21 winning margin market?

I only see it on TAB. Used to get it on TopSport but they don't offer it anymore. Is a safe and high value market imo if you can get it. Wouldn't be surprised if TAB take it down soon too

Bru V Dru -

1st try Lachlan Lonergan @ 17/2 ew (1/4 odds 1st 3 )

Feels like a bit of value for the Brumbies style of play. And if he doesn't get first, fancy him to be one of the first 3 scorers @ just over 2/1.

Damon Murphy hates rugby. Such a weird career choice for someone who hates the game.

I hate him. Penalty machine he is. Never seen a flowing game with him reffing it.

Bottom of the refeering list for me. He should bugger off to 7s.

Brumbies = shit
Super Rugby= shit

Flemenstar wrote: Brumbies = shit
Super Rugby= shit

LOL.

Damon Murphy, the new Wayne Barnes

right after what felt like an age break from any serious bets while on holiday for 10 days, i'm ready to fire into weekend.

WP + 15 @ 10/11

Side looks decent enough (thanks Hanrick for popping up on my twitter feed with comment on the WP account). Just think this line is too big, WP will score tries the way they play, and a great kicker @ 10.

Bulls +6.5 @ 17/20 in todays CurrieCup

I prefer look of Bulls side to that named for Sharks. Closer to choice match in my view, Bulls with some better experience sprinkled across side.

Man, I'm hemorrhaging money here. can't call anything right.
Handbrake on.

looks like strong winds in Durban from what i've seen, might look at tries overs for the 2 games there as could be tricky kicking conditions. Waiting closer to kick-off.

Hectic wind predicted for Durban. Main bet Sharks under 33.5 points at 9/10. Also on Bulls +5.5 at 9/10 and Bulls to win at just under 19/10

Sharks v Benetton
Benetton always seem to have a few points in them so running with

Benetton over 20.5 @ 19/20

BET:

Gloucester u36.5 x Newcastle u29.5

2u

1.71 @ Bet365

Brent Graham wrote: Great calls Hanrick - geez the Bulls butchering at the end killed me

I was so glad when Wandisile Simelane left the Lions, now the Bulls have to deal with his terrible decision-making. He makes a good break every now and again but that's about it. Who kicks away the ball 3 meters from a try line??

The Vann wrote: Sharks v Benetton
Benetton always seem to have a few points in them so running with

Benetton over 20.5 @ 19/20

Benetton under 23.5 at half time 80% original stake - The middle would be very naice

The Vann wrote:

The Vann wrote: Sharks v Benetton
Benetton always seem to have a few points in them so running with

Benetton over 20.5 @ 19/20

Benetton under 23.5 at half time 80% original stake - The middle would be very naice

Jeez I'm getting old. 15 Years ago I would never have blinked first