Cycling: Amstel Gold 2023

I love the Amstel Gold with its short but steep climbs and it is no surpise to see Pogacar a short priced fav at 1/1.

There is no doubt he is the strongest in the race and unless he is on an off day there is really only 2 things that can stop him namely bad luck and tactics.

His team UAE will be forced to do alot of work and it won't be easy to control - for this reason I think Pogacar will attack early (the best form of defense is attack sometimes) but with the short climbs he may not be able to get ride of everyone and if there is a small group going into the last 15 he can be put under pressure covering attacks especially if another team has more than 1 rider.

I love the man but at current prices I have to try and beat him or at least look at other markets to make money - here is my Amstel staking plan

Benoot 20/1
0.5 unit on the win but may main bet is a top 3 at 5/1 for 5 units - Benoot looks in great form and was 3rd last year. Ireckon he is one of the few who can stay in touch with Pog and if he has a teammate like Valter with him there is a chance he attacks and gets the win - I don't see him winning a sprint against Pog if they come in together and thats why I am waiting to top 3

Valter 40/1
Same strategy on the man who has impressed me working for Vingegaard in the Basque. 0.5 unit the win and 2 units Top 3 at 10/1

Honore and Aranburu at 80/1
0.5 unit win and 1 unit podium at 20/1 - a bit of a coin toss reall

In the end we should have lumped on Pog at evens, won like a 1/5 shot