Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread

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10 months 3 weeks ago #1 by Brent Graham
Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread was created by Brent Graham
The Tour de France gets going on Saturday and it looks a great route although it is the riders that will make or break it.

A bit worrying is that bookmakers have this as a 2 horse race with defending champ Vingegaard at 11/10 and Pogacar 23/20, Hindley is next in the betting at 14/1

I am a big Pogacar fan and would love him to win but he is coming off a layoff since his wrist op although did win his national road and ITT titles this weekend (don't think Roglic was present though)

The other thing to fear for outright backers is that cycling seem to be the only sport which still tests for Covid and that could take your pick out when he is 3 minutes clear

An interesting one could be Adam Yates at 50/1 - he is there mainly for Pogacar but I think UAE will want to keep him in contention to use to pressure JV - you never know what happens to the favs and he may be worth a 50/1 nibble or perhaps 10/1 for a podium

We will be doing video previews for each stage and links will be posted in this thread

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10 months 3 weeks ago #2 by mackem
Replied by mackem on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Outright betting markets for yellow, green and polka dot jerseys from @WorldSportsBet

goodforthegame.co.za/TDF2023/tour-de-fra...betting-markets.html

twitter: @goodforthegame

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10 months 3 weeks ago #3 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Got Yates Podium @16/1 with skybet and added the following;

Skjelmose Top 3 finish King of the Mountains @20/1

Ciccone Top 3 finish for Stage 1 @25/1

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10 months 2 weeks ago #4 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Guys if you want to join the whatsapp group - not a serious betting group but some general discussion you can click here

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10 months 2 weeks ago #5 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
just popped onto this thread to get ready for some TDF interest and i'm completely stunned at first comment re COVID - seriously they are still testing / someone has to be withdrawn if positive? That is crazy - cycling stuck in 2021!

So if someone gets covid - rule is has to be withdrawn, or optional for team to decide? Does make for some serious consideration on outrights.

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10 months 2 weeks ago #6 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Hi South,

My understanding (from recent races like the Giro) is the rider can stay in if he doesn't have symptoms but my question is why are they even testing then. The only sport where you still see masks especially amongst support staff - it makes long term betting risky although I am hoping we don't even hear the word over the next 3 weeks

Biggest recent example Evenepoel withdrawing from Giro a few hours after winning an ITT - would have taken many tickets with him

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10 months 2 weeks ago #7 by Profitable_Hedgehog
Replied by Profitable_Hedgehog on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Taking Biniam Girmay to win a stage at 2.75

Hoping he has the legs to win a stage in his first Tour De France.
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10 months 2 weeks ago #8 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Set up a Goodforthegame Velogames league

www.velogames.com/velogame/2023/leaguesc...php?league=513047014

League Name: Goodforthegame
League Code: 513047014

Looks like a nice simple format - all welcome

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10 months 2 weeks ago #9 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
A little short on time this month end so probably saving money on the outrights. Have spent the following

Number of riders to wear yellow
TdF is front loaded so taking
Under 3.5 @ 14/10

Not a great looking INEOS team. Bernal on record saying if he makes it to Paris it will be a win
Bahrain-V to beat INEOS @ 11/10

Groupama FDJ were second last year. Some teams were short of riders but they finished only 38min behind a full INEOS outfit
Team 1-3
Groupama FDJ @ 7/1

One for old times
Green jersey 1-3
Sagan @ 12/1
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10 months 2 weeks ago #10 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Not getting too involved on the long term markets but a couple of double digit plays

2 units Girmay Green at 11/1
Reckon he can be thereabouts in sprints and hopefully collect when the real quicks cannot. Will have a team willing to help him get into breaks and if he is in contention would make it a target

1 unit AG2R Team Classification at 20/1
Got a few decent climbers and if O'Conner falls out of podium contention can infiltrate breaks. Would need luck in running but if given a sniff this French team would fight for it

Stage 1 preview will be up tonight or early tomorrow

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10 months 2 weeks ago #11 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Not getting too involved on the long term markets but a couple of double digit plays

2 units Girmay Green at 11/1
Reckon he can be thereabouts in sprints and hopefully collect when the real quicks cannot. Will have a team willing to help him get into breaks and if he is in contention would make it a target

1 unit AG2R Team Classification at 20/1
Got a few decent climbers and if O'Conner falls out of podium contention can infiltrate breaks. Would need luck in running but if given a sniff this French team would fight for it

Stage 1 preview will be up tonight or early tomorrow

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10 months 2 weeks ago #12 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Stage 1 is a tough one but it should be a great watch


You Tube Preview of Stage 1



Long Term Bets
2 units Girmay Green at 11/1 at WSB
1 unit AG2R team at 25/1 at Sportingbet
4 units Skjelmose/S Yates at 11/10 Betxchange

Stage 1 Bets
1 unit Girmay Top 10 at 7/1 at WSB
0.5 units Pidcock at 14/1 at Sportingbet

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10 months 2 weeks ago #13 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Stage 1 -

Taken a special with Boyles.

Alaphillipe or Pidcock win

@ 7/1
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10 months 2 weeks ago #14 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Always difficult to reign in one's enthusiasm on the first stage of a Grand Tour. I got drilled on stage 1 in the Giro and played catch-up for three weeks so nothing large today.

Stage 1
e/w
Alaphilippe @ 15/1
1-3
Bardet @ 25/1
Top 10
Ciccone @ 3/1

Match bet double
Ciccone/Woods - Champoussin/Latour @ 21/10
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10 months 2 weeks ago #15 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Intriguing stage should be a good watch


Like the Ciccone Top 10 @3/1 and Podium 25/1

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10 months 2 weeks ago #16 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
What a stage yesterday I only caught the last 30km after the July

Click here for the Stage 2 preview



Summary after Stage 1
Long Term: 7 units pending
Stage: -1.5 units
Overall: -1.5 units

Stage 2 Bets
1 unit Van Aert at 3/1 at WSB
0.5 unit Girmay 14/1 at WSB
0.5 unit Philipsen at 33/1 at WSB

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10 months 2 weeks ago #17 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Came up empty yesterday so small stakes was good choice. Similar for today

Stage 2

Win
Philipsen @ 33/1
e/w
Strong @ 22/1

Philipsen if the climb is average and the 4/1 Strong place if it is very hard.

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10 months 2 weeks ago #18 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Giving Alaphilippe another go 33/1 ew top 5

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10 months 2 weeks ago #19 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Another cracking stage - Lafay what a win and one of the questions I ask on the stage 3 preview is should Vingegaard have worked to close the gap on Lafay?

The other one is why did UAE work so hard?

Click here for stage 3 betting preview



Summary after Stage 2
Long Term: 7 units pending
Stage: -2.5 units
Overall: -2.5 units



Stage 3 Bets
0.5 units Girmay win at 14/1 at WSB
2 units Van Aert win at 14/1 at WSB
0.25 unit Pidcock win at Sunbet
0.25 unit Strong win at Sunbet
0.25 unit Pogacar Top 3 at 100/1 at Sunbet

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10 months 2 weeks ago #20 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Stage 3

Joining Brent with a beer on Pogs which I got at 80/1

No great inspiration today. The bend 200 odd metres out concerns me. It makes the sprint dangerous and a bit of a lottery so still beer level for me.

Win
Ewan @ 11/1
1-3
Kristoff @ 15/1

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10 months 2 weeks ago #21 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Sam Welsford @ 14/1 EW

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10 months 2 weeks ago #22 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
No joy today, thought Van Aert was a bit unlucky not to run top 2 but pleased the result stood, that was a great spring from Philipsen

Onwards we go and a speculative double in the match play market

Click here for the video preview



Summary after Stage 3
Long Term: 7 units pending
Stage: -5.75 units
Overall: -5.75 units



Stage 4 Bets
2 units Philipson win at 12/10 at WSB
2 units Vingegaard/Pogacar onto Coquard/Sagan at 3.7/1 at WSB

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10 months 2 weeks ago #23 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Allez Le Coq!

Biggest bet yet for me on him to beat Sagan. They've got the prices the wrong way round

Also took a little of Pogi to win the K.O.M @4/1

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10 months 2 weeks ago #24 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Added a 2.5u straight bet on Coq over Sagan at 19/20

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10 months 2 weeks ago #25 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Stage 4
Still beer level for me. First stage to see a chunk of my hard earned dosh will be the final climb on stage 6.

e/w
Ewan @ 14/1

I think without a lead out he has to follow wheels and will therefor go late. Should be perfect for the expected head wind so the 5/2 place looks good

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10 months 2 weeks ago #26 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Stage 5

Podium finish Tom Pidcock @5/1

Hang on up the last climb fly down the descent; or just outsprint the climbers left!

Twitter @kamalch53215288
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10 months 2 weeks ago #27 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
A profitable stage although typically Pogi rolled in just ahead of Vingegaard to ruin the double

Stage 5 Preview on You Tube



Summary after Stage 4
Long Term: 7 units pending
Stage: -3 units
Overall: -3 units



Stage 5 Bets
2 units Pogacar win at 5/2 at WSB (Money back for 2nd Promo)
0.5 unit Gall win at 28/1 at WSB
0.5 unit Adam Yates win at 40/1 at WSB

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10 months 2 weeks ago #28 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Adding half a unit on Simon Yates

Stage 5 Bets
2 units Pogacar win at 5/2 at WSB (Money back for 2nd Promo)
0.5 unit Gall win at 28/1 at WSB
0.5 unit Adam Yates win at 40/1 at WSB
0.5 unit Simon Yates win at 50/1 at Betx

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10 months 2 weeks ago #29 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Stage 5
Joining Brent on Pogs also at 5/2
Throwing in a place on Lafay as he has generally been the last man standing when the big two went.

1-3
Lafay @ 15/2

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10 months 2 weeks ago #30 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Taking a Beer on Lidl-Trek for the Team Classification @25/1

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10 months 2 weeks ago #31 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Wow what a Stage 5 - Gall gave me a run for my money but never saw the Vingegaard attack coming

I am pressing my AG2R at 25/1 for team classification


Click here to watch on You Tube



Summary after Stage 5
Long Term: 8 units pending
Stage: -6 units
Overall: -6 units



Stage 6 Bets
0.5 unit Pedrero win at 66/1 at WSB (Money back for 2nd Promo)
0.25 unit Peters win at 300/1 at WSB
1 unit AG2R team comp at 25/1

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10 months 1 week ago #32 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Stage 6

I think the right break stays away today so looking at riders over 4min behind.
Joining Brent on Peters which I got at 250/1
and adding

Win
G Martin @ 66/1
e/w
Van Gils @ 250/1

and my first proper bet
Match bet double
Pidcock/Woods - Pinot/Bernal @ 17/10

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10 months 1 week ago #33 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
I really like this one today

2.5 units Ciccone/Gall at 11/10

Gall will likely be in break but if GC contest he will likely fade and his is fluctuating so may also have a bad day - Ciccone not riding for himself but can't see him giving up his GC position

Van also going a unit on your Pidcock/Pinot but throwing in Gaudu/S Yates to get a 33/10 treble

1 unit on the treble

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10 months 1 week ago #34 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Vingegaard1st Pogacar 2nd straight forecast @ 13/2

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10 months 1 week ago #35 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Stage 6 - 120km to go

Nil in the break for me.

Taking Tobias Johannessen @ 9/1

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10 months 1 week ago #36 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Stiff Vann and South

A punting blank for me and my main long term play Sjkelmose/S Yates also in big trouble

But yet I am in a great mood - what a stage and I am so happy Pogacar found his legs to keep this tour alive

Stage 7 Betting Preview on You Tube



Summary after Stage 6
Long Term: 8 units pending
Stage: -11.25 units
Overall: -11.25 units

Stage 7 Bets
2 units Philipsen win at 1/1 at WSB (2nd place Promo)

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10 months 1 week ago #37 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Yeah no joy so far betting wise but all big prices to date and like you Brent just enjoying the tour it’s been a cracker so far with best to come.

Sam Welsford 20/1 ew, if he can get some better help from teammates I think he’s got the legs to win a stage.
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10 months 1 week ago #38 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Made our first real stake punt yesterday. Like Brent, also pleased we have a contest to look forward to. Lost the smalls on my in-play but taking a moral victory for picking the most likely rider to win from the 15 man break.

Stage 7

Back to small stakes. Next big look will be Sunday. Sticking with my man Caleb.

Win
Ewan @ 9/2

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10 months 1 week ago #39 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Nice to back a winner even if it was the big fav - my thoughts on the sprint and also the Green Jersey in todays vieo

Click her to watch Stage 8 on You Tube



Summary after Stage 7
Long Term: 8 units pending
Stage: -9.25 units
Overall: -9.25 units


Stage 8 Bets
2 units Van Aert win at 4/1 at WSB (2nd place Promo)
0.5 unit Girmay at 11/1 at WSB (2nd place Promo)
0.5 unit Coquard at 18/1 at WSB (2nd place Promo)
2 units Ewan/Philipsen at 7/4 at WSB

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10 months 1 week ago #40 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Beers on Axel Zingle 200/1

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10 months 1 week ago #41 by Cyclingexpert
Replied by Cyclingexpert on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Stage 9 matchup. Gaudu over an injured Simon Yates
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10 months 1 week ago #42 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
A blow out for me in Stage 8

Stage 9 Preview on You Tube



Summary after Stage 8
Long Term: 8 units pending
Stage: -14.25 units
Overall: -14.25 units



Stage 9 Bets
0.5 unit Gall at 20/1
0.5 unit Ciccone at 20/1
0.25 unit Meintjes at 125/1
0.25 unit Pedrero at 125/1
3 units Gaudu/S Yates at 1/1 (credit @GrootLem)

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10 months 1 week ago #43 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Stage 9

Quite possibly a break-away stage so may take something in-play. Initial bets are

Win
Gall @ 20/1
e/w
Martin @ 125/1

Match bet
Rodriguez/Hindley @ 2/1

and smalls on the double
Rodriguez/Hindley - Vingegaard/Pogs 13/2

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10 months 1 week ago #44 by southpaw
Replied by southpaw on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Martinez 33/1
WvA 40/1

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10 months 1 week ago - 10 months 1 week ago #45 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Brent trying not to wake up the family in his preview! ;-)

LOL yes I only realised after I was def trying not to talk too loud

No joy for me on the betting front - looked at Woods but went with Gall and Ciccone instead

Great ride by Woods not to panic and what a battle over the final km between Pogacar and Vingegaard

Twitter @kamalch53215288
Last edit: 10 months 1 week ago by Brent Graham.

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10 months 1 week ago #46 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
In Play 143km to go

Woods probably the guy but 7/10 is not on

Berthet @ 14/1

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10 months 1 week ago #47 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Loving the Tour but betting wins are scarce

Watch Stage 10 Betting Preview on You Tube



Summary after Stage 9
Long Term: 8 units pending
Stage: -18.75 units
Overall: -18.75 units


Stage 10 Bets
0.5 unit Mohoric at 20/1
0.5 unit Aranburu at 40/1
0.5 unit Cosnefroy at 80/1
0.25 unit Geniets at 500/1

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10 months 1 week ago #48 by kcmarinopirlo
Replied by kcmarinopirlo on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
3 for the Breakaway Lottery

Also on Cosnefroy and Top 10 finish
Powless and Top 10
And Zimmerman

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10 months 1 week ago #49 by The Vann
Replied by The Vann on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Stage 10

Stage looks like a locked in break which could include the likes of van Aert/vd Poel/Pedersen which means probably no in-play bet today. Not going to attempt to pick from any of those at very short odds.

Do not want to be the odd man out so joining on Cosnefroy and taking

Win
Wright @ 28/1
Turgis @ 100/1
e/w
Nielands @ 185/1

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10 months 1 week ago #50 by Brent Graham
Replied by Brent Graham on topic Tour de France 2023 Betting Thread
Vann my heart broke for you today - so close with Nielands at a massive price

No joy for me although small stakes thankfully

Stage 11 Betting Preview on You Tube



Summary after Stage 10
Long Term: 8 units pending
Stage: -20.25 units
Overall: -20.25 units

Time for the comeback to begin

Stage 11 Bets
5 units Philipsen win at 11/10 at WSB (money back for 2nd promo)

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