Rugby World Cup 2023 Outrights and Long Terms

Fiji 18/1 pool C winners (Sunbet)

www.betway.co.za/latestpromos

Betway are running a risk free bet on the Boks to win the World Cup. Its only up to R1000 but if the boks lose you get your stake back in cash with no wagering terms.

Boks currently priced at 5.25, not a bad offer by Betway.

Naidoo wrote: www.betway.co.za/latestpromos

Betway are running a risk free bet on the Boks to win the World Cup. Its only up to R1000 but if the boks lose you get your stake back in cash with no wagering terms.

Boks currently priced at 5.25, not a bad offer by Betway.

not a bad offer, until you read the t&c's - what's with no's 10 to 20?

??12. The judges’ decision is final, and no correspondence will be entered into

What has a judge got to decide? - normally it's easy - you look at the result and you know if you've won or lost

Chile v Japan +25.5 @ 23/20

Japan has really been poor since the last RwC and the warm-ups against the islanders have not been better.

Chile has a decent scrum, take their points and will come out swinging in the first game.

Expect the closer we come to the game this line to shorten quite some to around the 21.5 mark.

I can’t wait for the RwC to start, these warm-ups feel like Varsity Cup betting!

Top tryscorer Faingaanuku @ 14/1

Not in 1st choice squad at moment but think could play way into 23 come pool stages , going to play the Namibia game for sure and possibly Italy game squad and then Uruguay starting.

Feel he could be like the guy who was joint top with Lomu in 95, scores a bag full vs smaller sides. Also he’s greedy as hell as seen in super rugby.

My early plan of attack for the opening round of matches:

Romania vs Ireland: Romania Team Total Unders

Not seeing a line for this set yet, however have a feeling it will be around 5.5-6.5. If that’s the case will definitely be an unders play. If the line somehow opens at 7.5 or higher it will be a big, big strike on the Under.


Italy/Namibia: Italy -28.5

Italy look to be winding up at just the right time, looked dangerous in attack against Japan at the weekend and this stands out as one of those World Cup matches where the gulf in class will be evident all the way through. Italy should romp here.


Australia/Georgia Unders

No line out yet. I would not be surprised to see a carbon copy of Georgia’s match against Scotland from the weekend here. Think Georgia can keep it tight defensively for the first half and the Wallabies certainly haven’t impressed in the lead up to the tournament. Initially had a thought on the +23.5, but think I prefer the Unders angle here as the Wallabies certainly have more than enough in the bag to pull away later on in this match. Australia took this matchup 27-8 in the last World Cup. I expect the total to be somewhere in the mid 50s, in this case I will definitely be on the Unders.

Adding a few more


Total Tournament Red Cards Over 5.5 @ 1.90

There were 8 red cards issued at the last World Cup. With even more focus and scrutiny on protecting players 4 years later this total seems low to me.


Total Tournament Drop Goals Under 7.5 @ 1.72

The drop goal just isn’t as common as it once was. 8 seems like a hefty number especially considering how many matches you expect to see where teams will have the game in hand against inferior competition and won’t be seeking out 3’s. There were only 6 drop goals in RWC 2019, I’m on the under.

Top points scorer DMac @ 50/1

A bit speculative but I think after NZ loss to Boks they might be looking again at bench formation for RWC. Probdbly needs an injury to others to get a run in this market but at 50/1 it’s hardly big stakes needed and if starts as expected v Namibia could score a load.

Saw this on Brent's twitter feed. Credit to that poster. Massive price at Boylesports. Nawaqanitawase top try scorer @ 56/1

We recently adopted a couple of rescue dogs - I think it's clear from this RWC outright preview that its had quite the impact on me!

www.goodforthegame.co.za/Boyle-Sports/co...utright-preview.html

Hi Guys,

So I am thinking of running a RWC predictor comp where you predict match scores, not just a margin like in Superbru. Entry would be around R200.

If you would be interested send me a DM on Twitter and I can give you some more details. (Please also note that I got permission from Brent to post this on the forum.)

@darrenholliday is my Twitter handle.

Just catching up on the show now but wanted to mention that Boylesports prices in South Africa are considerably different - and better value- to prices in Boylesports Ireland.

No surprise I guess as they look to carve out a space in the SA market

Hanrick might be interested in the 6/1 on South Africa to win every game in 80 minutes at the WC

Laraxwell wrote: Just catching up on the show now but wanted to mention that Boylesports prices in South Africa are considerably different - and better value- to prices in Boylesports Ireland.

No surprise I guess as they look to carve out a space in the SA market

Hanrick might be interested in the 6/1 on South Africa to win every game in 80 minutes at the WC

Logged on to post exactly this. The prices are incredible.
Was pointed out by Alex in the comments on the show I think, but for example Penaud top try 20/1. It's 7/1 in Europe.

Out of interest are they limiting stakes much?

Brad Breath wrote:

Laraxwell wrote: Just catching up on the show now but wanted to mention that Boylesports prices in South Africa are considerably different - and better value- to prices in Boylesports Ireland.

No surprise I guess as they look to carve out a space in the SA market

Hanrick might be interested in the 6/1 on South Africa to win every game in 80 minutes at the WC

Logged on to post exactly this. The prices are incredible.
Was pointed out by Alex in the comments on the show I think, but for example Penaud top try 20/1. It's 7/1 in Europe.

Out of interest are they limiting stakes much?

Holy crap the odds in top tryscorer market are approx x3 odds of most UK books and their Uk/Irish odds. Is this an error or heavily restricted stakes? If neither, I’d love to get involved in a few players odds.

Hi guys thanks for all the information leading up to Friday, really looking forward to the start now.

I was looking through the outright markets at Sunbet and what caught my eye was the 'Points in lowest scoring match in the tournament (O/U)'. The line is currently set at 22.5 at 9/10. Surely this is maybe 10 points too low and unlike in Japan, there wont be that humidity issue in France. Am I reading too much into this or is that overs line of 22.5 or 23+ points to be scored in every match a good thing?

Would really appreciate any thoughts on this, as I want to have a good strike on the overs line. Thanks guys and goodluck with all your bets!

You only need one rain affected match to beat you. I would not want to put you off but maybe a bet on overs on the total points in the tournament based on your correct assessment of the humidity in Japan. Just my two cents. Cheers

Thanks GeeGee and yes you make alot of sense. I agree that overs bet at 80.5 is a good one and will be having a strike on that. Thanks for your thoughts.

Over 6.5 red cards is around 8/10 or maybe 9/10. 8 in 2019 but with new bunker system I thought maybe could be a few more than normal?

Been looking at total tournament tries.

Books have the line at 340

Previous RWC total tries:
2007 = 296
2011 = 262
2015 = 271
2019 = 285

Granted some of the minnows perhaps over achieved in 2019 (Russia and Uruguay) and the likes of Romania in 2023 have regressed.
This, coupled with how the game has changed recently, the fact that conditions should generally be favourable (but unknown), its fair to expect there will be more tries in 2023.
But just can't see how/why there could be 55 more tries than Japan 2019, notwithstanding the reduced humidity factor.

Sporting Index have the spread 346 - 354.
I've sold at 346, as think it's simply too high.

Keen to get others thoughts, before possibly climbing on the under 340.5

Straight forecast:
SA/FRANCE - 14-1
FRANCE/SA - 16-1

Just can’t see passed these two.

And Ireland to get knocked out in the pool has decent odds too.

BuggerBoy wrote: Adding a few more


Total Tournament Red Cards Over 5.5 @ 1.90

There were 8 red cards issued at the last World Cup. With even more focus and scrutiny on protecting players 4 years later this total seems low to me.

My thoughts too, I'm on a variety of lines at what seemed like appealing prices. Have I gone a bit too "eggs in one basket" on this?

>5.5 at 9/10
>6.5 at 11/10
>7.5 at 2/1
>8.5 at 4/1 (but also includes >29.5 yellows)
>9.5 at 9/1

With hindisght it might have just been easier to buy on the spreads!

Should add I've been on lengthy exile from the site in the belief that I'd lost my ability to log in due to some issue with not updating an obsolete email address but just tried to log in and it remembered me and waved me through! :

Brad Breath wrote: Been looking at total tournament tries.

Books have the line at 340

Previous RWC total tries:
2007 = 296
2011 = 262
2015 = 271
2019 = 285

Sporting Index have the spread 346 - 354.
I've sold at 346, as think it's simply too high.

Keen to get others thoughts, before possibly climbing on the under 340.5

Points related spreads and lines have looked high to me since I first looked and have been edging downwards. I reckon the spread was pitched around 360 at first, it was 350 to buy or sell a week a go. I'd still go low if you pushed me to pick a side. It was 332 if you go back to 2003 so lower in all of the last 5 renewals.

Points lines have been edging downwards over the weeks, as have yellow cards but reds have spiked upwards a bit in the last few days. The one exception in terms of points is 50-ups (total points over 50 in any game so a 60 point game adds 10 to the total). You can now sell at 410 with the last 5 totals (according to my records) being 199 - 328 - 386 - 474 - 647. There's a distinct downwards trend there which would have to be significantly bucked for it to hit 410 this year.

Chiefie wrote: Straight forecast:
SA/FRANCE - 14-1
FRANCE/SA - 16-1

Just can’t see passed these two.

And Ireland to get knocked out in the pool has decent odds too.

Yeah 7/1 for Ireland to exit group is great value
8/1 for 3rd place and whopping 750/1 for lower!

It'll break my frigging heart for us to go out early again.

But we're a complete Basket case at World Cups so I'll knife us in the back and play the self- preservation bet

I'd welcome some input on this one as I feel as if there's some value to be had but I can't quite put my finger on it. We're talking highest scoring pool or pool with most tries scored. Firstly here's the expected numbers based on the spread prices (which you may or may not feel are reasonable). Points followed by tries:

A: 612 & 83
B 562 & 77
C 545 & 73
D 549 & 71

So A clear favourite with B next best and C/D fairly close. Here's the prices for most points and tries:

A 8/15 & 1/2
B 6/1 & 5/1
C 13/2 & 11/2
D 7/1 & 13/2

I was leaning towards group B being worth a bet and the comments on here about how weak Romania are would support that to an extent. Any views appreciated.

OUTRIGHTS
I thought Ireland looked comfortable against France in the six nations in Feb and the Boks look ready. Samoa ran Ireland to four last month and we know what Fiji can do. England look absolutely rubbish and its possible that Eddie is now more mouth then ability. He certainly did not leave England in top nick.


Joining the guys on that over 80.5 points. Romania have to play 3 of top 5 nations so should slide in

Winning Pool. Pool B @ 17/10

Straight forecasts

Pool C Wales/Fiji @ 25/1
Pool D Argentina/Samoa @ 30/1

RWC Straight Forecast
Bokke/Ireland @ 14/1

Romania to score the lowest points in the tournament - 11/10 (Sunbet)

harry_rag wrote: Here's the prices for most points and tries:

A 8/15 & 1/2
B 6/1 & 5/1
C 13/2 & 11/2
D 7/1 & 13/2

I was leaning towards group B being worth a bet and the comments on here about how weak Romania are would support that to an extent. Any views appreciated.

Group B to be highest scoring has shortened to 7/2 and 5/1 with the two firms offering the market. I've decided to give it a miss.

My other antepost bets (apart from the red card assortment mentioned above) are 16/1 each for either New Zealand to beat France tonight and France to win the World Cup or France to win tonight and New Zealand to win the World Cup. By my maths, as long as I avoid the draw it means I'm on whichever team loses tonight at 15/2 outright. I don't think either will drift that much unless they take an unprecedented hammering!

That leaves the bet that probably offers the most obvious value; 1/2 for any pool runner up to reach the semi finals. Let's just say it's unlikely that the the odds for all 4 group winners to win their QF won't be a bit bigger than 2/1!

The Vann wrote: OUTRIGHTS
I thought Ireland looked comfortable against France in the six nations in Feb and the Boks look ready. Samoa ran Ireland to four last month and we know what Fiji can do. England look absolutely rubbish and its possible that Eddie is now more mouth then ability. He certainly did not leave England in top nick.


Joining the guys on that over 80.5 points. Romania have to play 3 of top 5 nations so should slide in

Straight forecasts

Pool C Wales/Fiji @ 25/1

Wales @ 25/1 to beat Australia. Looks like a winning ticket here

Personally hoping for Aus win over Wales, no bonus for Wales. Then I think Fiji top pool if goes to plan in their 2 games.

the way the scrumhalves have scored for fun vs smaller nations, can't do any harm with this one -

Top tournament Tryscorer = Dupont @ 100/1 (not on board yet)

Japan to Qualify 20/1

Much better opportunity for Japan from here. If they sneak one over Samoa then it will come down to a knock out with Argentina next week.

There is something not right with Samoa, maybe over coached. Its ok to reign back the island flair but to stamp it out completely is a mistake. As for Argentina looks like if you can score 20 point you can beat them. They offer nothing on attack and failing to get a bonus point vs Chile is even a slight possibility here.

I'm passing on the Group B highest scoring bet due to the odds shortening ... and I've got some combo bets for New Zealand and France with a hedge for tonight's match, along with a solid value bet on any pool runner-up reaching the semis

Boyles SA seems to be cookin' up some wild prices for top try scorer .