Rugby World Cup Round 4 Betting Thread + other rugby
- Brent Graham
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Really enjoying this RWC and will do more videos this week over and above the regular previews.
I have already seen some of the handicaps so wont be doing my own caps on all games this week (I like to do it before I see anything for an unbiased view) but here are the early caps with my comments and projections where there are no caps
Uruguay -18.5 v Namibia - I have a feeling this line has pushed out a few points, looks fairly well set
Japan +5.5 v Samoa - I saw some comments on the Round 3 thread and support for Japan is likely
New Zealand -27.5 v Italy - Hanrick was all over this and I am also on the plus early - lets see if the market agrees
Argentina -52.5 v Chile - this is my projected handicap, not seen betting yet
Fiji -14.5 v Georgia - Fiji only need to win their last 2 games to qualify - no firm view on the cap
Scotland -62.5 v Romania - Projected handicap - Scotland will get the bonus point but will they chase points diff? I think they will
Australia -33.5 v Portugal - projected cap - what sort of mindset will Australia be in?
South Africa -42.5 v Tonga - Projected cap - Boks will need bonus and may push to improve PD
Look forward to your thoughts and lets hit those bookies hard!
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- Pablo
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- Laraxwell
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Uruguay (-12.5) @4/7
Fiji (-12.5) @4/6
Scotland (-52) waiting for price
South Africa (-32) waiting for price
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- TheAdmiral
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Will look for SA overs in the low 50s and Namibia + if it can creep towards 20
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- Pablo
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- Pablo
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- hanrick
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Pablo wrote: Southland +13.5 @1.88 1.5u // Southland dnb @6 0.5u
I'd love to hear your reasoning on this one. BOP have rotated, but imo still a solid BOP team. Southland can't make the playoffs, but BOP still very much in the running. Both teams with 2 games this round and with BOP's 2nd game being Tasman I think they'll make sure of the job against Southland.
Southland have been poor this year.
Not saying your bet is wrong, would just like to hear your reasoning.
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- Pablo
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hanrick wrote:
Pablo wrote: Southland +13.5 @1.88 1.5u // Southland dnb @6 0.5u
I'd love to hear your reasoning on this one. BOP have rotated, but imo still a solid BOP team. Southland can't make the playoffs, but BOP still very much in the running. Both teams with 2 games this round and with BOP's 2nd game being Tasman I think they'll make sure of the job against Southland.
Southland have been poor this year.
Not saying your bet is wrong, would just like to hear your reasoning.
Just intrinsec value in the that line, Southland at @6 is 1.5e better than in other bookies, now +10.5 the hándicap in orbit. Not a big fan of their pack but nice backline from 9 to 15.
Just positive expected yield for me in this lines, main reason to place a bet.
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- Brent Graham
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Click here to watch on You Tube
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- Brent Graham
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The 1st of our weekly previews Uruguay v Namibia
Under 6.5 tries at 10/11
Both teams only chance to win so hoping the 3's get taken
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- Pablo
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Pablo wrote: Southland +13.5 @1.88 1.5u // Southland dnb @6 0.5u
One penalty away of the @6 not great not terrible
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- hanrick
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Pablo wrote:
Pablo wrote: Southland +13.5 @1.88 1.5u // Southland dnb @6 0.5u
One penalty away of the @6 not great not terrible
Nicely done!
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- Pablo
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- Mondo86
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Some fancies -
Namibia over 7.5 HT @ 2.13
Uruguay over 34.5 @ 1.83
Uruguay over 17.5 Second half @ 1.89
I do agree with the u6.5 tries @ 1.91 but it could be a sweat if Namibia are competitive.
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- southpaw
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Good conditions, day/early evening game, the glut of 8pm games have pulled down the averge total points per game, but these day kick-offs have been generally high scoring, not slippery etc.
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- Jameson
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southpaw wrote: Over 50.5 pts @ 5/6 uru v nam
Good conditions, day/early evening game, the glut of 8pm games have pulled down the averge total points per game, but these day kick-offs have been generally high scoring, not slippery etc.
I've done the same only I got evens. Unlike Brent I'm hoping they have a bit of a chuck around!
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- Jameson
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- Brent Graham
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- hanrick
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- Pablo
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hanrick wrote: Taken under 60.5 points at 17/20 at halftime
Same opinion here, but just 1u at @1.90
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- TheAdmiral
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3.5u @1.72 Bet365
This is a bookie mistake here. Wales have already scored exactly 100 points in 3 games. Their next game is vs Georgia, let’s say they score 30 points, Id be surprised if the line is in the 20s.
They will need 45 more points going into the quarter final, which will probably be against Argentina. They will be heavy favourites regardless of who they play and will most likely progress to the 1/2 final where they will probably lose to one of the big 4 leaving a 3rd place play off vs England (?), or whoever loses that semi final.
This means, assuming they score 30 vs Georgia they will need 45 points in 3 games, one vs an inferior team and one in an irrelevant game where defence is optional.
The only way I see this bet losing is if they lose the quarter final. You are effectively getting 1.72 on Wales to win a 1/4 final vs Argentina/Japan/Samoa. I like those odds
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- Brent Graham
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Poor start to round 4 for me and hoping to get back on track tomorrow
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- hanrick
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Brent Graham wrote: Well done overs backers and those who snuck in with the under 60.5 at the break.
Poor start to round 4 for me and hoping to get back on track tomorrow
62 points in the game
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- Brent Graham
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- Pablo
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- Laraxwell
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I like Italy Over 13.5pts v New Zealand @ 10/11
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- Chiefie
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I really like Samoa to get 1+ yellow card. They've got one in each game, and see this trend happening again.
With their tackle technique and desire to decapitate, I see this happening again. With all eyes on this match, and plenty of Islanders about, I see this being quite physical, and with the margin of error being so small, could easily see a high shot landing by the samoans.
Samoa 1+ yellow card at evens the play for me.
Also think under 48.5 is golden. Coil, that ones for you champ.
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- Pablo
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- southpaw
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Chiefie wrote: Samoa v Japan.
I really like Samoa to get 1+ yellow card. They've got one in each game, and see this trend happening again.
With their tackle technique and desire to decapitate, I see this happening again. With all eyes on this match, and plenty of Islanders about, I see this being quite physical, and with the margin of error being so small, could easily see a high shot landing by the samoans.
Samoa 1+ yellow card at evens the play for me.
Also think under 48.5 is golden. Coil, that ones for you champ.
bookie for that samoa 1+ card?
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- Chiefie
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southpaw wrote:
Chiefie wrote: Samoa v Japan.
I really like Samoa to get 1+ yellow card. They've got one in each game, and see this trend happening again.
With their tackle technique and desire to decapitate, I see this happening again. With all eyes on this match, and plenty of Islanders about, I see this being quite physical, and with the margin of error being so small, could easily see a high shot landing by the samoans.
Samoa 1+ yellow card at evens the play for me.
Also think under 48.5 is golden. Coil, that ones for you champ.
bookie for that samoa 1+ card?
Skybet on requestabet
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- shaft
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Some value for me on Naikabula first try scorer @ 12/1
"No team is as good or as bad as their last game."
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- Eduard
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7 Scots each have 1 try, including K. Steyn & D. Graham
Duhan vd Merwe, the current favourite is not playing against Romania this weekend.
Value to be had in any player in the starting 15 this Saturday.
Don't expect Scots to score a lot of tries against Ireland, nor winning. So this market can be settled on Saturday.
I've taken Graham 4-1, Steyn 5.5-1 & the hooker, E.Ashman @29-1
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- kt6747
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Eduard wrote: Scotland Top Try Scorer Market:
7 Scots each have 1 try, including K. Steyn & D. Graham
Duhan vd Merwe, the current favourite is not playing against Romania this weekend.
Value to be had in any player in the starting 15 this Saturday.
Don't expect Scots to score a lot of tries against Ireland, nor winning. So this market can be settled on Saturday.
I've taken Graham 4-1, Steyn 5.5-1 & the hooker, E.Ashman @29-1
Thank you for this, which Bookie is this with?
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- Eduard
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- Chiefie
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Fritz Lee ATS @4-1 (getting the ball in the boot of the rolling maul).
Jonathan Taumateine @5-1
MOM:
Fritz Lee @8-1
Jonathan Taumateine @12-1
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- coil
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However I have gotten some plus 4.5 Japan and am very happy , I think Japan win the game but plus 4.5 should ensure a profit .
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- southpaw
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Player match Matsuda @ 12/1
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- Brent Graham
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- Jameson
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- Jameson
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Either way they are crap! Please Log in or Create an account to join the conversation.
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- Brent Graham
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Enjoyed the game and Japan full value for the win after weathering early pressure
Guys note the time change for todays THE HANDICAP to 13h00 today to allow me to link up the "old firm" combo of Couch Critic and The Understaker
A R500 Betxchange voucher up for grans for live viewers
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- Jameson
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When will I learn .......
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- Brent Graham
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A lot of support for the ABs it seems but I am firmly in the Understakers camp
Italy +28.5 at 1/1
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- Laraxwell
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I've just seen a rousing speech by Michele Lamaro
Italy are well up for this
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- Kirky
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Great call Brent.Brent Graham wrote: A big result for my Superbru last night had Japan by 6
Enjoyed the game and Japan full value for the win after weathering early pressure
I missed your match preview. Although I don't think it would have changed my mind.
This is the 4th week that I wont get any bonus points, as I was on Samoa.
Again it was the disciplined team (Japan) vs the brute force (Samoa), and as much as I like, and wanted to go Jap (tbf they haven't looked good either), the bookies h/c convinced me. Chicken-shit cowardly me again.
Dunno where I'll be at the end of this round, but was 112/154 (2nd week), and 77/154 (3rd week),
Dunno if I can catch up from there as it's a least 12 points that I've left on the table and we've passed the midpoint.
but I'm sure gonna try
(gulp
) I'm also all-in on NZ -26.5Which probably means that you guys have got it right on the plus LOL
Good luck to all
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- Mondo86
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Leans for tonight -
Italy 2nd half over 6.5 points is surely far too low when the game opens up
Under 3.5 tries HT
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- Pablo
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- southpaw
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If you are 2 tries down early vs NZ you are in trouble.
I just can't back them. If i was forced into a bet, and maybe still tempted, Italy over 12.5 appears more to me.
Sitting on it for now but NZ over tries has my attention.
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