URC Week 5 Gallagher Prem Week 6 plus other rugby 17-19 Nov

I've been enjoying some success on the Premiership and the caps aren't out yet, so I thought I'll have a go at capping it..

Sale Sharks -17.5 vs Newcastle Falcons ( -21.5)
Bath -7.5 vs Bristol Bears ( -9.5 )
Leicester Tigers -7.5 vs Northampton Saints ( -7.5 )
Harlequins +3.5 vs Saracens ( +2.5 )
Exeter Chiefs -6.5 vs Gloucester ( -10.5 )

Edit: correction of Handicaps. The numbers in brackets for the home team in bold.

Thanx, good luck, and cheers

Brent it's especially baffling as Canal Plus owns a stake in Multichoice...

Done this before any pricing of matches so please no abuse..

Rugby weekend starting 17/11:
Bankers:
Bath to beat Bristol (Fri)
Sale to beat Newcastle (Fri)
Ulster to beat Lions (Fri)
Leinster to beat Scarlets (Sat)
Glasgow to beat Benetton (Sat)
Munster to beat Stormers (Sat)
*Multi on above teams I would be strong on will be short but couldn't see any of them being beaten at home*

Handicap of interest before pricing goes up by firms:

*Leinster* at home to the Scarlets
*Leinster* have beaten Scarlets by 30 (away), 35 (home), 27 (away) in recent times. I watched Scarlets play the Lion's on Saturday they were beaten at home by 24-23 thanks to a last minute Lions converted try. Scarlets were poor, really struggled with Lions physicality. Scarlets only made 3 line breaks at home in over 80 minutes of rugby and I think they'll be in for a long night in the RDS. Leo Cullen has said in post Dragons game on Sunday that there will be more Irish players involved next week, we seen Sheehan, Joe McCarthy, Ross Byrne, Ryan Baird on Sunday so expect more big names when teams go up on Friday. Anything around -20 to -23 handicap here I will take, this may be wishful thinking.

Rest of the weekend looks difficult. Ulster may be a bet on the team points market on Friday night v Lions in Kingspan. It's a pretty big Lions pack so Ulster will want to try move them around on the new 4G all weather pitch that they've got. Anything around the 28-30 mark here weather dependant I would take.

SirDesChamps00 wrote: Done this before any pricing of matches so please no abuse..

Rugby weekend starting 17/11:
Bankers:
Bath to beat Bristol (Fri)
Sale to beat Newcastle (Fri)
Ulster to beat Lions (Fri)
Leinster to beat Scarlets (Sat)
Glasgow to beat Benetton (Sat)
Munster to beat Stormers (Sat)
*Multi on above teams I would be strong on will be short but couldn't see any of them being beaten at home*

Handicap of interest before pricing goes up by firms:

*Leinster* at home to the Scarlets
*Leinster* have beaten Scarlets by 30 (away), 35 (home), 27 (away) in recent times. I watched Scarlets play the Lion's on Saturday they were beaten at home by 24-23 thanks to a last minute Lions converted try. Scarlets were poor, really struggled with Lions physicality. Scarlets only made 3 line breaks at home in over 80 minutes of rugby and I think they'll be in for a long night in the RDS. Leo Cullen has said in post Dragons game on Sunday that there will be more Irish players involved next week, we seen Sheehan, Joe McCarthy, Ross Byrne, Ryan Baird on Sunday so expect more big names when teams go up on Friday. Anything around -20 to -23 handicap here I will take, this may be wishful thinking.

Rest of the weekend looks difficult. Ulster may be a bet on the team points market on Friday night v Lions in Kingspan. It's a pretty big Lions pack so Ulster will want to try move them around on the new 4G all weather pitch that they've got. Anything around the 28-30 mark here weather dependant I would take.

Prices now up and I will take:

4 units on the accum of Sale, Bath, Ulster, Glasgow, Munster, Leinster @ 0.94/1 (Paddy Power)

&

2 units on Leinster -23 v Scarlets @ 10/11 (Paddy Power) (I see line has shifted to 24 whilst I type this would be ok too for me)

I use a staking of 1-5 on units, 1 being smallest bet and 5 being my max if anybody does wish to follow. Again just my opinions no abuse please. Good luck everyone

Apologies for another post, the 6 team accum of Sale, Bath, Ulster, Glasgow, Munster & Leinster pays 1.10/1 in Boylesports. Some people may not have that so I will record at the price of 0.94/1 (PP)

SirDesChamps00 wrote: Apologies for another post, the 6 team accum of Sale, Bath, Ulster, Glasgow, Munster & Leinster pays 1.10/1 in Boylesports. Some people may not have that so I will record at the price of 0.94/1 (PP)

Thanks SirDes. Good info but I would not take Munster win at anything shorter then 17/20 so I feel this acca needs to be around the 22/10 mark.

Thanks The Vann. I can see your point about Munster being too short but I just feel at home in Thomond they will get the job done, they should welcome back more internationals this weekend too. Also think Calvin Nash is playing excellent rugby for them, he's sure to be in an Irish squad come the Six Nations

What great analysis SirDesChamps00 - Good shouts!

My Friday cheeky -

Zebre vs Cardiff over 49.5 & Edinburgh vs Bulls over 48.5 & Bath vs Bristol over 48.5 @ 4.12 (Pokerbet)

Hi,
Is there any news regarding the return of the boks for the sharks?

There is urgency for the results!

Zebre under 25.5 points at 0.84/1

My form has been terrible, but like this one a lot and have had a real go at it

Official bet:

2 units Sale -28 @ 10/11 (-27 in some firms but generally -28 with main firms)

Newcastle have named a second string team in which recognizing some of the players named was a huge challenge I will not lie, they have left out all of their main men in Radwan, Orlando, Blamire, Carreras, Moroni, etc. This is the type of selection you get in a league where there is no relegation.
Sale have slightly rotated but still have a solid looking side named with Roebuck, Joe Carpenter, Daniel Du Preez at 8, Cobus Wiese and Johnny Hill at 4&5, Ben Curry captaining at 7, and an ok looking front row with Bevan Rodd, Creevy and Harper.

Weather in Manchester is forecasted for a dry day with very light wind.

I would be surprised if Sale can't put away this Newcastle side by 30+ tonight.

BULLS over 22.5 @ 10/11

Leinster over 49.5 @ 2.21

Fill your boots boys

SirDesChamps00 wrote: Official bet:

2 units Sale -28 @ 10/11 (-27 in some firms but generally -28 with main firms)

Newcastle have named a second string team in which recognizing some of the players named was a huge challenge I will not lie, they have left out all of their main men in Radwan, Orlando, Blamire, Carreras, Moroni, etc. This is the type of selection you get in a league where there is no relegation.
Sale have slightly rotated but still have a solid looking side named with Roebuck, Joe Carpenter, Daniel Du Preez at 8, Cobus Wiese and Johnny Hill at 4&5, Ben Curry captaining at 7, and an ok looking front row with Bevan Rodd, Creevy and Harper.

Weather in Manchester is forecasted for a dry day with very light wind.

I would be surprised if Sale can't put away this Newcastle side by 30+ tonight.

All I can do is apologize. Terrible from me

Please don't apologise.
Your analysis was welcome and thorough.
Punting makes fools of us all

We keep trying!

SirDesChamps00 wrote:

SirDesChamps00 wrote: Official bet:

2 units Sale -28 @ 10/11 (-27 in some firms but generally -28 with main firms)

Newcastle have named a second string team in which recognizing some of the players named was a huge challenge I will not lie, they have left out all of their main men in Radwan, Orlando, Blamire, Carreras, Moroni, etc. This is the type of selection you get in a league where there is no relegation.
Sale have slightly rotated but still have a solid looking side named with Roebuck, Joe Carpenter, Daniel Du Preez at 8, Cobus Wiese and Johnny Hill at 4&5, Ben Curry captaining at 7, and an ok looking front row with Bevan Rodd, Creevy and Harper.

Weather in Manchester is forecasted for a dry day with very light wind.

I would be surprised if Sale can't put away this Newcastle side by 30+ tonight.

All I can do is apologize. Terrible from me

Apologize not needed, Sale should have won this by 40 points against an academy side.

I was at Sale -20.5 4u my biggest bet of the season, closed at -30.5 so there was big value. Second half was ludicrous.

Pablo wrote:

SirDesChamps00 wrote:

SirDesChamps00 wrote: Official bet:

2 units Sale -28 @ 10/11 (-27 in some firms but generally -28 with main firms)

All I can do is apologize. Terrible from me

Apologize not needed, Sale should have won this by 40 points against an academy side.

I was at Sale -20.5 4u my biggest bet of the season, closed at -30.5 so there was big value. Second half was ludicrous.

Definitely no apologies needed Sir Des.

I was same as Pablo, but on Sale for a full 5 units, which I doubled up on at -28.5, so a massive loss for me, and nobody's fault but my own

My h/c prediction was spot-on tho: Sale Sharks -17.5 vs Newcastle Falcons ( -21.5) and game ended Sale by 18.

Also I'm no stranger to a Friday night bloodbath Or a catch-up Saturday

Does anyone concur that they've got the wrong favorite for Sharks v Connacht ?
IMO the cap should be the other way around as I'm seeing it as a huge mismatch. Can't see Plum,or anybody else, turning the Sharks around in a week, even if he got 4 Springboks back.
And I reckon this is the away game Con will be aiming to win, as well.

Anyway, I've got 5 units on the W, but I intend to double up on Connacht on a low minus (-2.5) as soon as Sunbet put it up.

Anyone see a reason that I shouldn't ?
Any reason other than I'm crap at punting winners
Luck be with us here onward lads and lassies

Munster Stormers

Think points line a touch too low. Conditions should be good, 44.5 tempted me in.

Over 44.5 pts @ 10/11

Sharks v Connacht:

Connacht -5.5 @ 5.10 Sunbet for 3 units

Roll the dice boys

southpaw wrote: Munster Stormers

Think points line a touch too low. Conditions should be good, 44.5 tempted me in.

Over 44.5 pts @ 10/11

I've gone over 36.5 in live play - not sure even that will be good enough at this rate ....

Yep weather reports miles off, done our money here and giving back my Bills profits from last night.

Dragons 13 v 5 Ospreys @ HT

Ospreys down to 14 but I don't think the Drags have the mental aptitude to win by any great margin

Ospreys + 11.5 @ 1.91

Scarlets +36 pts - well, it cant get any worse can it??!!

Leinster v Scarlets
Weather in Dublin is ok but there were showers earlier
Leinster are weaning internationals back in but not sure they'll knock the lights out tonight. Difficult to get up after the emotional trials of the World Cup.

Main Match bet: Under 61.5pts

Brad Breath wrote: Dragons 13 v 5 Ospreys @ HT

Ospreys down to 14 but I don't think the Drags have the mental aptitude to win by any great margin

Ospreys + 11.5 @ 1.91

Yellow card put paid to this

Need the Leinster -23 to salute

SirDesChamps00 wrote:

SirDesChamps00 wrote: Done this before any pricing of matches so please no abuse..

Rugby weekend starting 17/11:
Bankers:
Bath to beat Bristol (Fri)
Sale to beat Newcastle (Fri)
Ulster to beat Lions (Fri)
Leinster to beat Scarlets (Sat)
Glasgow to beat Benetton (Sat)
Munster to beat Stormers (Sat)
*Multi on above teams I would be strong on will be short but couldn't see any of them being beaten at home*

Handicap of interest before pricing goes up by firms:

*Leinster* at home to the Scarlets
*Leinster* have beaten Scarlets by 30 (away), 35 (home), 27 (away) in recent times. I watched Scarlets play the Lion's on Saturday they were beaten at home by 24-23 thanks to a last minute Lions converted try. Scarlets were poor, really struggled with Lions physicality. Scarlets only made 3 line breaks at home in over 80 minutes of rugby and I think they'll be in for a long night in the RDS. Leo Cullen has said in post Dragons game on Sunday that there will be more Irish players involved next week, we seen Sheehan, Joe McCarthy, Ross Byrne, Ryan Baird on Sunday so expect more big names when teams go up on Friday. Anything around -20 to -23 handicap here I will take, this may be wishful thinking.

Rest of the weekend looks difficult. Ulster may be a bet on the team points market on Friday night v Lions in Kingspan. It's a pretty big Lions pack so Ulster will want to try move them around on the new 4G all weather pitch that they've got. Anything around the 28-30 mark here weather dependant I would take.

Prices now up and I will take:

4 units on the accum of Sale, Bath, Ulster, Glasgow, Munster, Leinster @ 0.94/1 (Paddy Power)

&

2 units on Leinster -23 v Scarlets @ 10/11 (Paddy Power) (I see line has shifted to 24 whilst I type this would be ok too for me)

I use a staking of 1-5 on units, 1 being smallest bet and 5 being my max if anybody does wish to follow. Again just my opinions no abuse please. Good luck everyone

+3.58 units profit from the acca and Leinster minus, subtracting the -2 units from Sale which all I can do is apologize again for, a poor call from me.
I may not be here next week but a bet that would interest me greatly would be overs in Bulls v Connacht line dependant. I will try have a better look closer to the time
Thanks