Heineken Champions & Challenge Cup + Cape Town 7's 4-10 Dec

Bet 365 have Heineken Cup caps out
All home side favourites

Connacht -2 v Bordeaux
Glasgow -5 v Northampton
Toulon -10 v Exeter
Bath -4 v Ulster
Toulouse -24 v Cardiff
Bulls -3 v Saracens
Munster -18 v Bayonne
Bristol -3 v Lyon
Sale -10 v Stade Francais
La Rochelle -2 v Leinster
Leicester -6 v Stormers
Racing 92 -9 v Harlequins

I like the quartet of Bulls, Munster, Leinster, and Leicester to beat their caps

I’ve taken Connacht -2 and Glasgow -5 early doors, both with 2.5u.

May add Munster, Rochelais and Toulouse later

Bristol -6 @ 10/11

Bears finally finding best form, Lyon looking a bit of a mess of late in Top14. Cap should be closer to 9/10 in my view.

Like the Leicester minus. More opposing Stormers, than backing Leicester tbh.

southpaw wrote: Bristol -6 @ 10/11

Bears finally finding best form, Lyon looking a bit of a mess of late in Top14. Cap should be closer to 9/10 in my view.

I did Bristol -5.5 early on, I guess Lou will make rotations due to their actual position in the Top14.

Connacht -3.5 @1.85 as well because I expect a mixed Bordeaux team.

Toulon, Bath, Bristol & Leicester all to win @ 3.53

Pablo wrote:

southpaw wrote: Bristol -6 @ 10/11

Bears finally finding best form, Lyon looking a bit of a mess of late in Top14. Cap should be closer to 9/10 in my view.

I did Bristol -5.5 early on, I guess Lou will make rotations due to their actual position in the Top14.

Connacht -3.5 @1.85 as well because I expect a mixed Bordeaux team.

As expected big rotation Lou (15/20 first team absents). Quality backline but very weak forward pack and bench, even Bristol -10.5 is valuable right now before lineups releashing.

Pablo wrote:

Pablo wrote:

southpaw wrote: Bristol -6 @ 10/11

Bears finally finding best form, Lyon looking a bit of a mess of late in Top14. Cap should be closer to 9/10 in my view.

I did Bristol -5.5 early on, I guess Lou will make rotations due to their actual position in the Top14.

Connacht -3.5 @1.85 as well because I expect a mixed Bordeaux team.

As expected big rotation Lou (15/20 first team absents). Quality backline but very weak forward pack and bench, even Bristol -10.5 is valuable right now before lineups releashing.

Lovely thanks Pablo. Glad this was the early fire of week!

Pablo wrote:

Pablo wrote:

southpaw wrote: Bristol -6 @ 10/11

Bears finally finding best form, Lyon looking a bit of a mess of late in Top14. Cap should be closer to 9/10 in my view.

I did Bristol -5.5 early on, I guess Lou will make rotations due to their actual position in the Top14.

Connacht -3.5 @1.85 as well because I expect a mixed Bordeaux team.

As expected big rotation Lou (15/20 first team absents). Quality backline but very weak forward pack and bench, even Bristol -10.5 is valuable right now before lineups releashing.

Hello Pablo,

Congratulations for your analyses.

You know the top 14 teams well, are you French?

Could you tell me on which site you found the information about the Lou Please team?

GoGoNoNo wrote:

Pablo wrote:

Pablo wrote:

southpaw wrote: Bristol -6 @ 10/11

Bears finally finding best form, Lyon looking a bit of a mess of late in Top14. Cap should be closer to 9/10 in my view.

I did Bristol -5.5 early on, I guess Lou will make rotations due to their actual position in the Top14.

Connacht -3.5 @1.85 as well because I expect a mixed Bordeaux team.

As expected big rotation Lou (15/20 first team absents). Quality backline but very weak forward pack and bench, even Bristol -10.5 is valuable right now before lineups releashing.

Hello Pablo,

Congratulations for your analyses.

You know the top 14 teams well, are you French?

Could you tell me on which site you found the information about the Lou Please team?

Hi mate,

I'm from Spain, but I have a couple of french friends from Montauban and they usually have nice insight info, specially from Pro D2.

This info is from them and they are trustful, I also have Bayonne compo and It will be something like this if someone want to now it:
1/Perchaud
2/Bosch
3/Tatafu
4/Marchois
5/Mikautadze
6/Huguet
7/Heguy
8/Bruni
9/Machenaud
10/Dolhagaray
11/Baget
12/Buliruarua
13/Muscarditz
14/Pourailly
15/Tiberghien

Sur le banc : Acquier - Cormenier - Tagi - Iturria - Bourdeau - Aprasidze - Erbi - Spring

Thanks

I officially confirm Pablo's information : www.blog-rct.com/semi-radradra-va-disput...h-avec-le-lou-rugby/

Toulon will field a very big team against Exeter

Great Handicap show tonight

Still on Accumulator placed on early caps.

Not that confident on Leinster as their bogeyman Will Skelton has just made his return for LAR. Alldritt is still a big loss for home side though and Leinster won't want for motivation.

Munster are missing some big players. Their maul defence was weak without Jean Kleyn at home to Glasgow last wkend. Kleyn is out until early in the New Year. O' Mahony also misses this weekend so need young lads to step up. This hasn't stopped handicap shifting out to -24. I see Bayonne have changed 11 starters from their Home Win v Montpellier so still confident on the minus here.

Agree with lads on show re Racing -8.5 v Harlequins. Stuart Lancaster is a great acquisition for the Parisien side and they'll go fully loaded for Europe. Waiting on Overs points play here too.

I see Jalibert named to start in Galway so seems Bordeaux travel with intent. But Aki returns for Connacht and he is a force of nature. Connacht win for me.

Challenge Cup - Yes decent start for Clermont in Top14 but will wait for home team selection. Edinburgh just turned over Ulster in Ravenhill and may take this Cup seriously. I'm more inclined to play them on the plus.

Will be hoping for some reckless caps for some of the other Challenge Cup games esp Black Lions v Gloucester. Black Lions on a double digit + First Half handicap would be my play

Best of luck folks

What's happened to the beer drinking bloke with the beard and the big fridge in the background - I used to enjoy watching/listening to his analysis ??

Ahhh yes of course - the conductor. Thanks, will look him up.

Clermont v Edinburgh
Sean Everitt has mixed side going to Clermont
Ritchie, Healy, Nel, Schoeman, and Gilchrist rested.
Still a decent side but don't like leaving first choice props at home.
No bet for me

The Conductor was seperated at birth with this bloke ....

General Koos de le Rey

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koos_de_la_Rey

So tonight hammering the Saints plus 7.5 at 4/5 , taken 9/4 outright DNB .

Points are low in the Connacht game at 43.5 , cap way too hard for me call , might hope for a quick start and then a shambles .

In Clermont going for the dirty frogs to pitch up and spank Edinburgh .

coil wrote: So tonight hammering the Saints plus 7.5 at 4/5 , taken 9/4 outright DNB .

Points are low in the Connacht game at 43.5 , cap way too hard for me call , might hope for a quick start and then a shambles .

In Clermont going for the dirty frogs to pitch up and spank Edinburgh .

Weather in Galway OK this evening so gone overs there.

Christmas has arrived early gents!
Leicester -12.5 at 17/20 with Hollywoodbets. Grab while it lasts!

Jameson wrote:

coil wrote: So tonight hammering the Saints plus 7.5 at 4/5 , taken 9/4 outright DNB .

Points are low in the Connacht game at 43.5 , cap way too hard for me call , might hope for a quick start and then a shambles .

In Clermont going for the dirty frogs to pitch up and spank Edinburgh .

Weather in Galway OK this evening so gone overs there.

OK? Where are you?
It's been pissing rain all day and blowing a gale

200 miles East. Rain radar shows fairly clear with the next heavy rain hitting late evening

EDIT: Well I dont know about the weather, but no score in the 2nd quarter has royally f@@@ed me over!

Right , it's into Saturday .

Toulon v Exeter , I still am strong on Toulon giving Exeter a bit of hiding , on minus 13.5

Still like Ulster to put in a good shift at Bath , plus 6.5 .

Toulouse need to cover 25.5 against Cardiff , only a small interest here on teh minus .

Bulls v Saracens I'm going against Uncle Hanrick and I'm unders at 55.5 .

Munster cap has come down a little so still going to follow at minus 21.5

I'm on minus 3.5 Bristol thanks to Pablo and Southpaw , cap now 11.5 in places and I'm going to have to cover ..... but only half of the minus 3.5 stake .

Play well comrades

Hi guys

Just came on to ask a question I see Ireland are playing South Africa next July in Pretoria on the 6th and then in Durban the 13th. Was thinking of planning a trip, just wondering what it would be like there that time of year? Is it safe?

Sorry I know this is off topic hope admins don't mind
Thanks

@Coil
Great call on away Saints win at Glasgow!
Hope you had a decent wedge on

First of 3 multi's shot down with shameful home performance by Connacht

Tomorrow is another day

Brent Graham wrote:

SirDesChamps00 wrote: Hi guys

Just came on to ask a question I see Ireland are playing South Africa next July in Pretoria on the 6th and then in Durban the 13th. Was thinking of planning a trip, just wondering what it would be like there that time of year? Is it safe?

Sorry I know this is off topic hope admins don't mind
Thanks

Its not a bad time of year to visit - cold in Pretoria but usually nie clear days, winetr for me in Durban the best time as humidity low

Safety can never be guaranteed but we live here and get by - can understand tourists being nervous but if you avoid unnecessary risks it should be fine

I lived in Durban for 5 years ( originally from England ) and, from an outsider point if view, I found it to be fairly safe in general. I would recommend staying in the Umhlanga/Durban North area as it has a great mall, some decent pubs, nice atmosphere etc. The actual City can be dodgy, so I would recommend a bit of research if you fancy a wander round, but the beachfront and Florida Road are must visits imo. Also, I left 5 years ago, so things may have changed since then. Cheers

Brent Graham wrote: Taking this 66/1 acca

Toulon -19.5
Toulouse -27.5
Saracens win
Munster -26.5
Bears -16.5

I came here now to say that I've just taken some crazy punts, on the basis that the bookies had no idea on yesterday's handicaps, so why should they today ?

Only to see your crazy 66/1 acca

I'm going to copy yours too, because you get'em right every time Brent

Best of luck to everyone, cheers to you all

Zebre/Cheetahs @ 8/1

coil wrote: Right , it's into Saturday .

Toulon v Exeter , I still am strong on Toulon giving Exeter a bit of hiding , on minus 13.5

Still like Ulster to put in a good shift at Bath , plus 6.5 .

Toulouse need to cover 25.5 against Cardiff , only a small interest here on teh minus .

Bulls v Saracens I'm going against Uncle Hanrick and I'm unders at 55.5 .

Munster cap has come down a little so still going to follow at minus 21.5

I'm on minus 3.5 Bristol thanks to Pablo and Southpaw , cap now 11.5 in places and I'm going to have to cover ..... but only half of the minus 3.5 stake .

Play well comrades

I dont suppose you fancy Cardiff to get a good hiding too?

Balls , I can't believe how poor Ulster were in that second half , I had hoped the half lead would spark them into life , instead it wasn't to be. They're in trouble and in a bit of a freefall atm .

Bristol Over 4.5 tries v Lyon Ou - Evens @ Bet365

This is a fucking joke, from 33-10 to 33-34.

I'm done for 2023, see you next year.

After the last 6 weeks of winners, 4 things happened to me:

1. My confidence grew from 0 to 100
2. The size of my bets grew exponentially too
3. I forgot the pain of losing
4. I was contemplating the amount of my first withdrawal from my betting accounts.

Well baby-shoes, that all went up in smoke, and it came crashing down spectacularly in this first weekend of Champions cup, and then some.
All 14 of my bets went down in flames with not even 1 winner, and that pain I'd forgotten is back.
And boy-o-boy does it hurt

Only thing to do now is go back to the basics, and reduce my unit size to 10%.
And, we go again

Suckerrr

Pablo wrote: This is a fucking joke, from 33-10 to 33-34.

I'm done for 2023, see you next year.

Bristol is the Auckland Blues of English rugby. For some reason punters will always come back to punt them, even though they very seldom deliver punting wise.

Was out all yesterday, managed to jump on the Sharks overs as only day bet, got back to hotel with mentally banked Bristol -6.5, but what a terrible end by them.

Square on rugby and all now onto the Leicester -12.5 at Hollies that BB posted Friday.

Looking to go overs at Racing if line ok.

World Rugby 7s
Ireland v NZ

Ireland won their 3 group matches incl turning over SA
Bet 365 had line at Ire +9 last night
This morning that line has reeled back to +5

Boylesports have the line at +10.5pts
Not really been following but I'm playing that
Match KO in 30 mins